Millennial Blueprint

www.millennialblueprint.wordpress.com   -   @millennialbp

[millennialblueprint-blog]

Trump threatens German carmakers with 35% US import tariff

Donald Trump warned German car companies he would impose a border tax of 35 percent on vehicles imported to the U.S. market.

Donald Trump continues to threaten other countries with import tariffs.  Now, his focus has turned to Germany and the European Union.  The United States needed this kind of muscle years ago, but now it will have almost no effect.  While his decision to threaten other countries is respected, there isn’t much good that can come of it.  Donald Trump, while holding the interest of the American people at heart, isn’t going to change things overnight, or even within the next 4 years.  There is a very large unwind of the status quo that needs to take place before we see any results from his policies.  The main focus of his policies are short term and emotional:  he is bringing jobs back to America.  Look out long term and see that the United States is in no shape to export mass quantities of goods to other countries.  To do that, the United States would need to severely weaken the dollar to make it attractive.  It did not matter who won the election.  Both candidates lack the power to control trade, currencies, and markets in order to get positive outcomes.

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U.S. Troops Arrive In Poland, But Will Trump Keep Them There?

U.S. tanks have returned to Europe to help defend Poland and Baltic states from possible Russian aggression. The Kremlin sees it as a threat.

This is the last gasp effort of the Obama administration and the old world to begin a conflict with Russia.  The United States’ presence in Poland is another tactic by the United States to pressure Putin and the Russians.  There is absolutely no reason why the United States should be there, but only for the reasons that the Democratic Neoconservatives can name.  All these old world power structures are just that: old.  There is no need for them, the world is shifting away from the old and is moving into a new age.  NATO most certainly is not needed as it was just a proxy to keep the Russians in check post WWII and to keep Europe secure.  The United States used the Baltic States and the Eastern Bloc to constantly play chicken with Russia over the last 40 years.  The world doesn’t want it, doesn’t need it, and the global community needs to realize who the real aggressors have been.

[millennialblueprint-blog]

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon: The Middle-Class Needs a Boost

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says the economy might be getting stronger, but there’s one segment that needs a lift.

Jamie Dimon has been the man in charge at JPMorgan now for over 10 years.  He is just now beginning to realize that the middle class needs help?  He cannot actually believe that the United States has been in a recovery since 2008.  If these big banks actually believe any of that, then the United States is in bigger trouble than we thought.  Perhaps a conversation with Donald Trump has Jamie Dimon changing his tune, and making him think about the very people that pay his wages.  His recognition that the middle class needs a boost is well respected, but it’s too little too late.  He should have thought about the middle class before his conversation with Donald Trump, and he should have thought about that before Hillary Clinton had conversations with big banks over the years.  It seems to me that someone does not want to be held accountable, or credible, for what happened to the middle class.

[millennialblueprint-blog]

Davos elite promise global solutions, but they’re part of the problem

The annual Davos conference is a gathering of the rich, powerful, and disconnected, writes Satyajit Das.

“The conference agenda shows how disconnected attendees are from real life. It is difficult for those who live in a cocoon of wealth or power, generally paid for by others, to understand the concerns of ordinary denizens of the planet.”

Those who attend Davos truly do live in their own bubbles.  Perhaps it’s the same bubble that bonds have been in for the past 30 years.  They don’t understand what life actually looks like to the average person.  It’s just not the average person though, it’s all walks of life feeling the pinch of low wages, high prices, and sub-par opportunity.  The club of the elite, made up of both good and bad, really don’t connect with every day people.  The system is top down when it should be bottom up.  But, a new form of system would demand a reworking of nearly every monetary system and power structure throughout the world.  And hard assets would be the basis of said system, not fiat that can be created by and for a small group of people who have their own interests set above the rest of society.

[millennialblueprint-blog]

Why Wells Fargo wins even when it loses

If investing is a game of managing expectations, then count Wells Fargo a winner.

One could say that every big corporation in the United States wins even when it loses.  Wells Fargo’s employees were stuck in the corporate game of achieving goals through numbers, which will always lead to putting the loyalty and integrity of the customer on the back burner.  And what Wells Fargo gets for it is a fine that is only a slap on the hand, and an equity price that is higher now than it has been in six months.  Instead of teamwork, corporations have turned into a pseudo-reality game of survivor in which if goals are not met, you will be forced out.  Not only that, but other employees are always willing and wanting to force others out as well.  It happens at any level from supervisors to mere hourly employees.  “Competition is the rule.  I deserve it all.  And I am going to get it all” has become the modern slogan in every corporation in the United States.  The United States economy will come back when corporations replace Corporate Darwinism with teamwork.

[millennialblueprint-blog]

Millennials’ Uphill Battle

The millennial problem is not the fault of millennials.  High student debt, living with parents, and unemployment are the symptoms of the problem.  The majority of us lived at a time when large corporations thrived in industrial America.  One cannot argue that the parents of millennials were rarely home.  They were constantly at work, putting in overtime, and providing for the American Dream that they so desired as the school system and day care raised their children.  Back when our parents were working, the dollar had far more purchasing power back then than it does today.  Millennials have hardly no purchasing power bringing home $30K or $40K per year.  The prices of goods and services have increased dramatically.  Millennials struggle to provide for their families and provide child support.  Most have no other choice but to accept government handouts in order to live and support families.  Something went terribly wrong within the last 40 years.  Much of it comes from poor decision making and poor policy of the Federal Government here in the United States.  Corporations offshoring jobs and the removal of the United States off the Gold Standard both come from the baby boom generation.  Millennials are the ones who are to reinvent America and the dream that was so precious to the boomers.  Millennials are the ones who are to pick up the pieces of a narcissistic generation from years ago and put the puzzle back together.  The future of millennials was taken away from them by the machinations of large corporations offshoring jobs along with the tax base, poor policy from the Federal Reserve, and large loopholes that the boys at Wall Street took advantage of.  The American Dream which was once a steady uphill climb has now become a large uphill battle.

As quoted from an anonymous baby boomer:

“We destroyed the job and housing market by letting corporations profit by moving jobs overseas and by letting bankers gamble with our savings while betting against us with credit default swaps.  In 1969 a person could pay for Yale law school by working less than 5 hours a day a minimum wage.  Today it takes 17 hours a day to pay for that same education.  It is not possible without going into debt.  Milennials have every right to be angry at what we left them with.  Too bad most of us are too ignorant to see what we have done.  Country full of dolts.”

[millennialblueprint-blog]

Obamacare sign-ups top 11.5 million, up from last year, as GOP struggles over repeal-and-replace

The Obama administration starkly warned Republicans against a "repeal-and-delay" strategy on Obamacare.

Obamacare saw an increase of signups to 11.5 million because there is no other place to go for healthcare.  If you go through the Obamacare marketplace, your premiums will be a lot.  But, if you do choose to go directly through an insurer, you could be paying even more.  They are trying to make the governmental online marketplace the main source to purchase healthcare.  Obamacare premiums exploded in 2017 with premiums in most states going up 20% or more (http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2016/11/01/Here-s-How-Much-Obamacare-Premiums-Are-Rising-All-50-States).  Some people are fortunate enough to work at a company that will pay a good portion of health insurance, but those places are becoming difficult to find and are limited to the governmental sector.  Many smaller businesses now see 30 hours a week as full-time under the health care law, and want to avoid providing health care because it would destroy smaller businesses.  There are many reasons why 11.5 million people have signed up under Obamacare, and they are not all positive.

[millennialblueprint-blog]

Home-buying sentiment index slides for fifth straight month

Surging mortgage rates, dwindling inventory, and soaring home prices are taking a toll on Americans’ attitudes toward ownership, according to a survey released Monday by Fannie Mae.

According to the Federal Reserve, the era of cheap money is over.  But even before the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in December, the market was already pricing in higher rates.  Mortgage rates began to creep higher as well as bond yields.  Cheap money was fueling everything in this “recovery”.  It was only a recovery of asset prices such as equities and home values.  High end apartments around the world have been in a large bubble for the past 7 years, and prices are now beginning to fall.  Home prices get valued higher as speculators fuel a buying frenzy, only to get caught in a bad trade when rates begin to rise.  Job creation and wage growth is at a standstill.  This is a part-time economy.  If you look at the FRED data from the St. Louis Fed, you can clearly see that real housing has not been in a recovery, and housing starts are not even where they were in 1995.  It should come to no surprise that home buying, and building, is sliding.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

[millennialblueprint-blog]

Fiat Chrysler to Build 3 New Jeeps, Create 2,000 Jobs in U.S.

Fiat Chrysler will add three new Jeeps to its lineup including a pickup truck as it invests $1 billion in two U.S. factories, furthering its effort to increase production of hot-selling SUVs and pickup trucks and get out of producing small and midsize cars.

Fiat Chrysler and their plan to keep jobs in the United States is a very large step forward.  First, Carrier decided to keep jobs in the United States.  It seems as though a whole number of other corporations and companies may be willing and wanting to follow suit.  While this is great for the real American economy, it is going to be interesting how Trump can maneuver around current trade problems.  American goods are far too expensive outside the United States and are not appealing to other countries who have poor currencies.  American made goods tend to be more expensive because of our strong dollar.  With a strong dollar, it is more difficult for other countries to trade with us.  In the long run, this is a great and amazing step forward.  I don’t feel the same about the short term.

[millennialblueprint-blog]

Through Rally or Crash, Here's Why Bitcoin Buyers Are Nervous About China

For Felix Yang, nothing beat bitcoin.

The main issue that can hold Bitcoin back in China is their government and their attempts to place restrictions on it.  For the most part, they see it as beneficial to the people to protect themselves, like gold and silver.  Even though China has become more Americanized, they still hold a strict rule over the heads of the people and make most decisions for them.  The government thinks they know what is best for the people, but sometimes the people are a couple steps ahead in protecting themselves.

[millennialblueprint-blog]

Macy's posts disappointing holiday sales, likely to cut 10,000 workers and move forward with store closures

Macy's said in August that it would close 100 locations. Here is a list of 68 stores it is shuttering.

As expected, dismal holiday and retail sales numbers.  Whether it’s a lack of physical shoppers or people going online, only time and numbers will be able to tell.  But we know this for sure, that both Sears and Macy’s are about to be in the same grave.  Whether or not more people are shopping online, Macy’s is the main holiday retail store for clothing and accessories.  We get complete exposure to Macy’s in the Thanksgiving Day parade, and even that doesn’t seem like enough promotion to increase sales at the stores.  More poor retail information and data will soon follow from other major stores this holiday season.  Last year it was Apple who couldn’t sell their iPhones for the holidays and had to cut production for a few months.  This holiday’s retail sales could be just as disappointing as last year. 

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Sources: Cain, David. True Activist. Dec 7, 2014. (http://www.trueactivist.com/your-lifestyle-has-already-been-designed-the-real-reason-for-the-forty-hour-workweek/) Ethos. Dir. Pete McGrain. Cinema Libre Studio, 2011. Documentary Graph supplied by: (http://economagic.com/) Jones, Shannon. World Socialist Web Site. Dec 4, 2014. (http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/12/04/wage-d04.html) Mt. Holyoke College Research Study. American Consumerism and the Global Environment. 2009. (http://www.mtholyoke.edu/~kelle20m/classweb/wp/index.html) Zeitgeist: Addendum. Dir. Peter Joseph. GMP LLC, 2008. Documentary. …

This article made me think a little bit more.  How many people work 40 hours a week, and how many actually raised their own children?  The school system raises your children for you, which is quite a scary thought.  The logic on the surface of the system is very foggy at best.  You work 50+ hours a week to pay for a home you are never in, to have a family you never see, and buy things you probably rarely ever use.  The name of the game is ‘follow the leader’.  You live based on what you have been told is correct under the current order of the world.  This article brings up many wrong notions about it too. 

To summarize, it is up to us to be responsible and accountable for our own lives in the here and now.  Not someone else and certainly not some system or tax payer.

[millennialblueprint-blog]

The New Silk Road: China Launches Beijing-London Freight Train Route

On Sunday, the Chinese government launched a rail freight service between China and London. This is the first direct rail link between China and Great Britain. The link will be a major economic boon to China, the UK and the countries along the historic Silk Road.

China is not playing any games.  By opening up the old Silk Road, they are going to be the most dominant country in the world even if Trump brings some jobs back.  There is no slowing down the China machine.  There absolutely is no comparison to the size and the amount of capital that is going to flow through the East during this next century.  There is very little the United States can do to even compete with what China is doing.  This single trade route spanning Beijing to London is going to see an amount of capital and goods pass through that will be well over the trillion dollar mark in this century and into the quadrillions.  The populations of China and India combined is over 2 billion people.  The potential market in the East is staggering in size, and the United States and the West have never seen anything like this before.

[millennialblueprint-blog]

Bitcoin breaks $1,000 level, highest in more than 3 years

Bitcoin has been on a steady march higher, driven by a number of factors such as the devaluation of the yuan and geopolitical uncertainty.

While the United States rides high on equities, the rest of the world’s currencies are being destroyed.  Leading the way into Bitcoin’s $1,000 mark is China.  The Chinese are unloading their Yuan on the notion that it will continue to be devalued, especially under Trump’s policies.  Rate increases and Trump policies are very strong for the dollar which means countries need to continually weaken theirs in order to keep balance.  Large countries want to get out of their sovereign currencies and Bitcoin is the go to currency at the moment.  After reaching $1,000 back in early 2014 and falling back to $300 in the same year, this time is different and so is the environment.  It is going to be very stable at the $1,000 level.  Happening right now is a mass exodus out of currencies and into assets that governments cannot control, and Bitcoin is one of them.

[millennialblueprint-blog]

U.S. stocks riding a bull market in corruption

This current rally is rooted in greedy hopes, not grounded fundamentals, writes Tim Mullaney.

This isn’t just the Trump rally.  The market has been riding higher on corruption for the past 7 years or more.  It isn’t called corruption, it’s called manipulation.  Nobody trades on fundamentals anymore.  There is almost no volume trading daily in the market.  The average person is out.  The only people, if you want to call them people, who are trading are the HFT and algorithms.  These computer programs notice changes in certain values, and either take the same trade as the other computers, or they take the opposite trade to capitalize.  The trading floor at the NYSE is nearly empty with only 30 real people down there.  Everything is trading on a computer system and these computers will always win.  People use to be able to day trade the market.  Not so much anymore.  The computers and algorithms will always be a thousand steps ahead.  They love to flash clash the market to force real traders out of their positions, hit their down limits, and force them to take losses.

[millennialblueprint-blog]

Santa rally fizzles: "Kiss Dow 20,000 goodbye for 2016"

The Santa rally has run out of steam, and it now appears investors will probably have to wait until the new year to see Dow 20,000.

"I think Santa is checking into a home," said Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS.   When asked if the Dow would reach the 20,000 mark this year, he replied, "I don't think so."

Art Cashin is always a good read.  Dow 20,000 will come in 2017 when the Federal Reserve needs to step in to introduce another stimulus plan.  Things could potentially go sour and liquidity will be the main issue.  Liquidity is a problem over in China right now.  Both a rate increase and Trump policies are two known large roadblocks in the way that could lead the mass exodus out of stocks and investment in America for some years to come.  Of course, job creation in America is great long term, but for Trump’s whole first term things will not be easy.

[millennialblueprint-blog]

Russia will exploit the struggles of the U.S. and Europe in 2017

Good news may finally be on the way for the country, which has suffered from sanctions and low energy prices.

It was Reagan's influence that tore down the Berlin Wall.  Every president since Reagan has done nothing but put continuous pressure on Russia.  For the past 30 years, Russia has continued to play by the rules whereas the United States and the West continue to create them.   Not only that, but America continues to use NATO and the Baltic States to keep Russia “in check” and make sure they are playing nice. Outside of small territorial differences between minor nations, America’s pursuit of forcing democracy down the throat of Middle Eastern countries certainly does trump every other attempt of power and control since the Cold War.  It seems as though the only country on the planet who is allowed a hand at imperialism is the United States.  If America plans to force democracy upon other nations, especially the Middle East, let’s not hope it’s the same dysfunctional American Democracy that has been in place in this country since the Cold War.  Hegemony and power is wonderful, but only when you create the rules to the game that others must play by.