森カリオペ by bluefield [Twitter/X]
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I don't know who needs to hear this, but it has been a central Republican strategy in the final week before an election to claim that the polls are breaking their way, that a red wave is coming, that Republicans are engaging in victory tours at least since the presidential election of 2000. (That's when I stopped watching CNN regularly, as the network promoted this line despite the fact that Gore would go on to win the popular vote.)
Given that Republicans have, in fact, only won the popular vote once in this period (2004), this is a strategy, not a statement of fact.
Don't sweat the narrative. Vote. Turnout wins, not news stories.
The Republicans are going to do everything they can to convince people not to vote.
The media companies are going to do everything they can to convince you that it's an insanely tight race, 50/50, PANIC PANIC PANIC, and they don't care if that discourages people from voting because they're too stressed. (They're not actively trying to discourage voting, but they want clicks regardless of how much mental drain that costs.)
Ignore ALL the reports about how voting is going. We don't know. We aren't going to know - there was a LOT of early voting, and a lot of mail-in voting, and none of those are being counted before close-of-business on election day. Everything you hear before that is hype and bullshit.
just watched a video on this last night that said this is a documented pattern because most red districts are rural areas with les votes to count, and more blue districts are densely populated, so in the beginning it looks like most of a state is red bc all the rural districts finished counting their votes first, and then the blue districts finish counting and that's where most of the states population lies
here's the video
.
By the way, Robert Reich also gave much of the same information in his substack today, but with links!
It’s a dirty trick Trump used in 2020 and will probably try to use tonight, but it won’t work if you know it’s coming. Please spread the wor
.
Transcript of the video below the cut:
Beware Trump’s Election Night Trick | Robert Reich
Robert Reich
There's a dirty Trump trick you need to look out for. He used it in 2020 to try to overturn the election, and he's going to do it again. But it doesn't work if you know it's coming.
Watch out for Trump to exploit something elections experts call the Red Mirage, to prematurely declare victory before all the votes are counted. You see, in almost every election, Republicans appear to take an early lead. That's the Red Mirage.
Then, that lead gets smaller throughout the night, which is called the Blue Shift.
This happens because Republican votes tend to be counted before Democratic votes.
It's not magic.
Votes are counted by precinct, and Democrats tend to live in more densely populated, urban precincts, while Republicans tend to live in more sparsely populated, rural ones. It just takes longer to count the votes in a precinct with a lot of people than in a precinct with fewer people.
In Georgia, for example, there are more than 300 times as many people living in Fulton County as in deep-red Glascock County. If Fulton County has 300 times as many ballots to count as Glascock, obviously Glascock is going to finish counting first.
In 2020, when numbers came in from counties like Glascock first, it made it look like Trump was leading in Georgia, when he really was not.
It was a Red Mirage.
Also, Democrats are more likely to vote by mail, and mail-in votes take longer to count.
Anyone who follows elections knows about the Red Mirage and the Blue Shift, as the former political director of Fox News has testified.
Chris Stirewalt: So in every election, and certainly a national election, you expect to see the Republican with a lead, but it's not really a lead
Ms Lofgren: So this Red Mirage, that's really what you expected to happen on Election Night?
Chris Stirewalt: Happens every time.
Robert Reich: But in 2020, Trump pretended the Blue Shift was surprising and suspicious.
Trump: We were winning in all the key locations by a lot, actually. And then our numbers started miraculously getting whittled away in secret.
RR: No! There was nothing miraculous or secret about it. But it's easy to see why people who don't know about the Red Mirage could be tricked into thinking that something unusual had happened.
According to Trump ally, Steve Bannon, that's exactly what Trump was counting on.
Steve Bannon: And what Trump’s gonna do is just declare victory. Right? He’s gonna declare victory. But that doesn’t mean he’s a winner. He’s just gonna say he’s a winner
Steven Bannon, via Mother Jones: The Democrats — more of our people vote early that count. Theirs vote in mail. And so they’re going to have a natural disadvantage and Trump’s going to take advantage of it —that’s our strategy. He’s gonna declare himself a winner.
RR: Bannon said that in October of 2020 — before the election! And that's just what Trump did on Election Night.
Trump: We were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election.
RR: Trump's nonsense claim that the votes counted earlier in the night were more legitimate than those counted later became the underpinning of the entire Big Lie, culminating in the January 6th attack on the Capitol.
The 2024 election will be close, and early in the night, Trump is likely to appear to be ahead and, again, use that early lead to falsely claim victory.
Mirages can be confusing, but if you know what they are, you won't be fooled by them.
Please, help spread the word about the Red Mirage, so people know exactly what to expect on Election Night.
蒼森ミネ(アイドル) by 煮たまごサンド [Twitter/X]
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おはよう by 将軍 [Twitter/X]
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