Notayesmanseconomics

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(Shaun Richards) This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:-

I’ve seen a couple of commentators talking about ‘zombie companies’ in Japan, which will fold if interest rates rise. It’d be interesting to explore this, and whether it will affect the USA, Europe and the UK — all of which have already seen bankruptcies rising, ahead of Japan’s own reckoning. Secondly, it looks like the USA is worried enough to help support the yen. What do you think?

With the Lloyds house price monitor this morning showing 0.1% YoY and 0.0% MoM increases, does this not prove even more problematic for Labours 1.5 million new homes target, as cost of construction costs increase, not just with inflation but increasing regulations around Net Zero etc?"

What is the potential impact of US market interventions to 1) keep the oil price below $90  2) bolster the yen?"

[notayesmanseconomics]

France has an economic Misery Index rate of 10.7% as unemployment rises

This morning has brought more news on a theme of mine that is an increasing concern which is the economic malaise affecting La Belle France. In the second quarter of 2026, the number of unemployed in France, as defined by the International Labour Organization (ILO), increased by 62,000 compared to the previous quarter, reaching 2.7 million. The unemployment rate stood at 8.3% of the active…

[notayesmanseconomics]

Even China is finding economic growth harder to come by these days

There has been a flurry of background economic news from China this week and we can start with an issue that the present UK government is attempting to grapple with. China has launched a global hunt for hundreds of billions of dollars in unpaid taxes going back decades as Beijing seeks to fill a deepening fiscal hole by targeting the ultra-rich. Authorities have stepped up scrutiny of overseas…

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UK Chancellor John Healey looks to borrow his way to more economic growth

Last evening saw the release of what is the plan to increase economic growth of the new UK government under Andy Burnham. So let me hand you over to The Times newspaper. Ministers are drawing up plans to boost economic growth by exploiting the fiscal rules to increase government borrowing and spend the money on infrastructure, housing and support for business. Under proposals being worked on…

[notayesmanseconomics]

The US economy looks to be surging ahead

Yesterday brought news which rather changes the context of the US economy. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2026 is 6.2 percent on August 3, up from 5.0 percent on July 30. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption…

[notayesmanseconomics]

Will the US Cavalry be able to ride to the rescue of the Japanese Yen?

The business week has started with something we have not seen for quite some time TOKYO, Aug 2 (Reuters) – Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama will announce on ​Monday that Tokyo and Washington took joint action in the currency market to arrest the yen’s slide to 40-year lows, two Japanese government ‌officials told Reuters. I suppose I could add that an announcement like that on a Sunday…

[notayesmanseconomics]

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(Shaun Richards) This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:-

You emphasise bond rates when the go above 5%.I take that this is important.But when will the crisis come to fruition? Is it predictable?And will other countries' rates also rising have any effect on the severity of the crisis if/when it comes?

The statements from members of the Bank of England MPC all appeared unfazed by broad money. Are they correct? Why are they complacent with 3.2% inflation in 2027 (at least the six voting in favour of a hold on base rates)? #Podcast

[notayesmanseconomics]

Central banks have added equities to house prices for their target list

In the latter part of this week we have seen three of the world’s major central banks decide that they can turn a blind eye to the inflationary risks provided by the conflict in the Middle East, of which the latest is the Bank of Japan. At the Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guideline for money market…

[notayesmanseconomics]

France escapes recession but economic growth is very weak

Today I am going to make a brief nod to the car crash made by the US Federal Reserve and simply point out that the rise in the 30-year yield to pre credit crunch highs means they should have raised interest-rates. The reason for that is we have received new data from France this morning where there were concerns about a recession in the first half of 2026. Gross domestic product (GDP) in volume*…

[notayesmanseconomics]

The Bank of England is looking to close the stable door after the AI equity horse has bolted

Today is Bank of England day as it votes on UK interest-rates later.  So between then and the announcement of the decision at midday tomorrow there is a risk of some being more equal than others. But before we get to that we can note another arena where many of the same policymakers are involved. The Bank of England is probing the rapid growth of exposure to Asian equities among investment banks…

[notayesmanseconomics]

What will happen to US interest-rates tomorrow?

Today the members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee will arrive for their meeting to decide US interest-rates and it has become a live meeting. Although in something of an irony not the way intended Markets are pricing in a strong chance that officials will vote to stay on hold, as they have all year, though they’re leaving open about a 1-in-3 chance of quarter percentage point hike,…

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European economic activity and GDP gets a cocaine boost

As we move into a central bank heavy week we can take a look backwards at the Euro area as well as this morning’s economic data. But before we get there the number one article in terms of popularity on the Financial Times website has an economic theme it has missed. The result is that more cocaine is available in Europe today than in the 1980s — often seen as the drug’s heyday — according to the…

[notayesmanseconomics]

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(Shaun Richards) This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:-

What's your view of the dilemma of adherence to the self-imposed fiscal rules against the need to fund defence/infrastructure commitments.

Shaun, I'd be interested in your view of the 10-year gilt yield, nudging 5.1%. How much of this rise is down to the Middle East situation and oil price, and how much of it to Spendy Andy?

I guessed 5% was when it starts to break so we shouldn’t have to wait long. I wonder if we’ll have to have an emergency budget?

The lack of volatility and tight ranges, could be a "hint" that the BOJ has finally realised that their interventions so far have only donated money to a few players - and now they could be on the offer - ready to destroy USDJPY when others start the move down - first time clever intervention ?

[notayesmanseconomics]

Will the better economic news for the UK be derailed by higher mortgage rates?

This week has started with what has been pretty favourable economic data for the new UK government and that theme has continued this morning. Retail sales volumes are estimated to have risen by 1.0% in June 2026. This followed a rise of 1.2% in May 2026 (unrevised from our previous bulletin), and a fall of 0.7% in April 2026 (revised up from a 1.0% fall in our previous bulletin) So we have a rise…

[notayesmanseconomics]

Japan is facing a crisis on several economic fronts

It is time again for us to look east to Nihon the land of the rising sun and earlier today we heard something that is becoming awfully familiar. Japan’s finance minister warned markets that authorities stood ready to take “appropriate and bold action” as the latest flare-up in the Iran war pushed the yen under ¥163 to the dollar for the first time in almost 40 years. In a press conference on…

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UK consumer inflation improves just as energy costs look set to rise again

The new UK government under Prime Minister Andy Burnham has started life with some favourable economic data. This morning’s version of that came from the official inflation figures. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% in the 12 months to June 2026, down from 2.8% the previous month. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.1% in June 2026, compared with a rise of 0.3% in June 2025. So the…

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The new UK government begins with an unfunded tax cut

The economic pace in the UK has really picked up over the past 24 hours and we can start with some egg on the face of the Financial Times which as we noted last Thursday was reporting that it new Shabana Mahmood would be the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. John Healey has been appointed as Chancellor of the Exchequer @hmtreasury On a political side that puts a new spin on his resignation as…