Carter Pearson

Things

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Arsenal: A Complete Capitulation

3rd/4th place and the FA Cup. 

I would've bitten your hand off for that in August. But the way Arsenal's title challenge ended this morning bordered on the absurd.

All the possession in the first 3-4 minutes, Giroud with a well-worked shot on target. Then it fell apart.

Eto'o. Schurrle. Oxlade-Chamber...err...Kieran Gibbs... err Theo Walcott...err Lewis Hamilton with a penalty/red card. Hazard. Oscar.

Oxlade-Chamberlain completely erasing all goodwill he has created among Arsenal fans since Ramsey's injury in just under 25 minutes. He went from a possible England started to Emmanuel Eboue. That was rapid.

I'm glad Arsene went for it with his team selection, but the preparation for early afternoon kick-offs is obviously lacking. At least with daylight savings time here in the states, I was able to wake up at 8:30 instead of 7:30. 

The team selection aside, Arsenal need to go out to consolidate in the first 10 minutes of these big games. Before "his" red card, Kieran Gibbs had been caught completely out of position on both of Chelsea's goals. I understand he is basically a left wing back at this point, but for the first 15-20 minutes he needs to hold his position much stronger, especially in games where Arsenal lack the bite and covering of Flamini in central midfield. Also, for a LWB, he sure doesn't create very many worthwhile chances. Chances come from Cazorla/Rosicky playing one-twos with Giroud, not Kieran Gibbs hitting crosses into the right back's chest.

I'm writing during halftime so here's to a Newcastle-esque comeback and all the red cards for Chelsea. Maybe even put on Kállstrom to throw himself around a bit. Blood him into the side in a game that doesn't matter.

Off to get another pre-10 am beer. Wenger1000 and all that. Woof.

*A word on the transferring of the red card from Gibbs back to Chamberlain: That's bullshit. The ref/linesman were incompetent enough to mix-up two mixed-race players and send off the wrong one, even though the ball was going wide. The FA doesn't get to fix that by suspending the other one, even though his staying on cost Arsenal a substitution and left on their most ineffective midfield player. 

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Connor Shaw: Best Gamecock Quarterback, EVER

I know that this post is a little late but I needed some time to sit back and reflect on what I saw for the last time.  On Saturday night, South Carolina quarterback, Connor Shaw, played his last home game for the Gamecocks.  He had his typical game.  152 yards through the air with a touchdown, 94 on the ground for another touchdown, and an Adjusted QBR of 90.8.  His stats never jump off the page and his game isn’t electrifying but he is a winner.  

He has been through his ups and downs as the starter.  Spurrier threw him into some tough situations as a freshman.  He was often the quarterback to come in during the 4th quarter after Stephen Garcia came out onto the field drunk.  He struggled during those situations at Auburn and during the Chick-fil-a Bowl without Marcus Lattimore.  But those games shaped the quarterback he would eventually become.

He has been a key factor in the Gamecocks 3 straight 11-win seasons, another first in school history.  He never lost to in-state rival Clemson and helped them win a 5th straight.  Shaw finished his career with an overall record of 26-5.  He was 17-0 at Williams-Brice, now the nation’s longest home winning streak.  The knock on him, by some, was that he couldn’t win the big game on the road.  Sure, all of his losses as a starter were on the road but, with the exception of Tennessee, all of those were against top 15 opponents in the SEC.  He lost at number 7 Arkansas, 9 LSU, 2 Florida, and 11 Georgia.  All of those schools are among the toughest places to play in the country.  

Shaw doesn’t look like he should be out there in the SEC.  He is listed at 6-1, 209, which means he is probably 6 feet and about 200.  But he is a winner and made of nails.  In my opinion, he cemented his legacy when he came in during the 3rd quarter when South Carolina was down 17 at Missouri and the season was on the line.  He wasn’t even supposed to play because he was sidelined with a sprained knee and had a stomach bug that had him throwing up before the game.  He lead the Gamecocks to 17 straight points to send the game into OT.  Then on 4th and goal from the 15 he threw a perfect pass to Bruce Ellington to force a second OT.  The Gamecocks eventually won after the Missouri kicker missed a 24 yarder.  

A virtual unheard of coming out of high school, he only had scholarship offers from West Virginia, Georgia Tech, and South Carolina.  Luckily, he chose USC because he wanted to play for Spurrier.  Shaw ended his career with 5,762 yards, 53 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, and a passer rating of 153.2.  He also ran for 1,636 yards and 16 touchdowns.  

So as my buddy, Mason, and I watched his last home game against Clemson and saw his typical performance we came to the same conclusion.  Connor Shaw will be missed next year.   

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College Football Recap: If it flies, it dies...

Well it happened… Again. Oregon lost its chance to play Alabama for a National Championship.  I guess all the Duck fans will have to save their “We Want BAMA” shirts for next year. For the third straight year Oregon lost in the final weeks of the season to lose it’s shot at playing an SEC team for the National Title. In 2011 they lost to USC when they were fourth and in 2012 they lost to thirteenth ranked Stanford when they were the second ranked team in the country.

Although the score ended up being close, Stanford dominated Oregon the entire game.  Stanford racked up 274 rushing yards, had the ball for almost 43 minutes, was 14-21 on third down, and had zero turnovers. Oregon on the other hand rushed for only 62 yards, had the ball for about 17 minutes, was 3-10 on third down, and had two costly red zone turnovers. The Stanford kicker made four field goals, the longest of which being 34 yards. Had Stanford been able to convert on any of those red zone trips they would have won by 20.  

Kirk Herbstreit said it best at halftime, when Oregon was down 17-0, that if Oregon loses this game, which they eventually did, that it’s the type of loss that will haunt them for years. And he is right. Oregon has proven time and time again that they cannot play with big physical teams.  In the last three years they have lost to Stanford twice, Southern Cal, and LSU. Not to mention the National Championship to Auburn in 2010.  From now on, whenever the Oregon fans chant “We Want BAMA” everyone should laugh. There is no way they could ever beat them. Alabama would run it down their throats. I never want to see another one of those shirts from Oregon. Shoot, their horrible loss on Thursday night turned Phil Knight into an Alabama fan.

Because the Oregon-Stanford game started during the Baylor-Oklahoma game many people may not have seen last part of that game and only the final score. Baylor won 41-12, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.  

The knock on Baylor was that they hadn’t played any real good teams yet and were basically holding a track meet every Saturday. People wondered how they would handle adversity if their offense wasn’t clicking on all cylinders. They answered all the questions with the beatdown they gave Oklahoma.  

Baylor’s defense held Oklahoma to 87 rushing yards on 34 attempts, had two interceptions, and Oklahoma was 4-17 on third down. Baylor had 255 rushing yards, Heisman candidate Bryce Petty had five total touchdowns, but Baylor was only 5-15 on third down. Heading into the second quarter the score was 3-0 Baylor. At the start of the second Oklahoma sacked Petty for a safety, making in 3-2. Midway through the second it was 10-5 Baylor and they were having trouble moving the ball. But then Baylor scored twice in the final minute of the half to make it 24-5. The game was essentially over at that point, I have no faith in Blake Bell to come back from that kind of halftime deficit. Baylor’s defense dominated Oklahoma the remainder of the game only allowing one touchdown and forcing Blake Bell to go 15 of 35 for 150. Bell finished the game with a QBR of 5.9.  This was the statement game that Baylor needed for their ranking.  But, ultimately not enough to put them ahead of Stanford or Ohio State.  Their Black Out uniforms were tight though…

Alabama proved, once again, that they are the number one team in the nation. LSU is having a down year by their standards but they are still a tough team to play. At halftime it looked like it was going to be another close game. LSU would have been leading at the half if it weren’t for a costly fumble on the Alabama two yard line. After the fake punt on fourth down Alabama literally ran away with the game. T.J. Yeldon carried the ball 25 times for 133 yards and 2 touchdowns, 104 of those yards came in the second half.

“Gamemanager” A.J. McCarron was 14 of 20 for 179 and 3 touchdowns. Those numbers don’t jump off the page but he proved that he can win big games. That counts for something. He played so well that even the emotionless Nick Saban was happy.

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Fantasy Team Name: Gordon's Fisherman

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NBA Preview: Birdman fo' President

The Miami Heat are coming off one of greatest seasons in NBA history. They went 66-16 and won their second straight Finals.  During that 66 win season they had a 27 game win streak, good enough for second best all-time, and only lost back-to-back three times. The Heat never lost back-to-back games in the playoffs.  Their series against the Spurs was one for the ages. It went seven games and game six was one of the best games ever. Ray Allen ripped the heart out of the Spurs with the last second corner 3 to send it into OT.  

This season they have a target on their back. Every time they step on the court they are going get the opponents best effort. Even the teams that are Riggin’ for Wiggins want to beat them. Last season when they won 27 straight each game was treated as a playoff game.  When they finally lost to the Bulls you could tell each player was physically and emotionally drained. Don’t expect Erik Spoelstra to give the starters, specifically Dwyane Wade, those kind of minutes again.  All they care about this year is winning another championship so they will rest Wade as needed to protect his knees.

They lost Mike Miller this offseason, who has proven himself time and time again in the playoffs the past two seasons. I didn’t think Miller would be back last year after he basically crawled off the court after they defeated the Thunder. His three point shooting will be missed but they will be just fine without him. The Heat still have Birdman, who proved to be a valuable piece, and signed Michael Beasley and Greg Oden. If Beasley can get his act together he will be a great bench player. Oden is the question mark.  Can he stay healthy? Oden is 25 but has the knees of a 55 year old. He will probably play sparingly during the regular season and if he stays healthy the Heat will need is size in the playoffs.  

Dwyane Wade’s knees might be falling apart and this might be Ray Allen's last season, but the Heat also have the best player in the world, Lebron James. Lebron has answered all his critics. He now has two titles and two Finals MVP’s. He can and has won the big one. In Game 7 last year, Lebron scored 37, had 12 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals.  Not to mention he was 8-8 from the free throw line and shot 50% from three.  Lebron is the best player alive and no one can argue.  Last year he averaged 26.8 points per game, shot 56.5% from the floor, and 40.6 from three. He lead the lead in points and FG% near the basket last year.  Kirk Goldsberry’s graphic shots he is nearly unstoppable around the basket.  He is an average free throw shooter, 75% for his career, but brings so many other things to the table. He is one of the best passers in the game, with 7.3 rebounds per game last year.  This year expect nothing less than perfection from James. He has one thing one his mind. Winning another title.

  There are rumors flying around about how much space the Cavs have to take a run at Lebron in 2014 free agency. What a great story that would be. “Lebron comes back home to lead the Cavaliers to a Title.” Even if the Heat don’t win the title this year it’s not going to happen.  Why would he want to go to a place that burned his jersey when he decided to change teams. They didn’t help him out at all, it was a one-man team.  And besides now he gets to live in South Beach, a place that’s warm all year round. Cleveland, from what I can tell is usually cold and a terrible sports town. When was the last time they won a championship in any sport?  

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NBA Preview: #2 DA BULLS

The Bulls are going to be very good whether or not Derrick Rose is MVP Derrick Rose. Their roster competes, has completely bought into Coach Thibs system, and is full of veterans who bring it on both ends of the floor. Thibs is the MVP of the Bulls, and maybe the most valuable commodity (non-LeBron division) in the league. If guys buy into his system, Thibs gets 5 replacement level NBA players to the playoffs.

If Rose is back to being a planet-eating force of nature, then the Bulls are going to be the best regular season team in the league. And it won’t be close. Thibodeau has already shown no reluctance to riding his starters (hello, Luol Deng leading the league in MPG for two straight years), and he will continue to do so this season, as the Bulls’ aspirations go from making the playoffs to clinching home-court throughout them.

The Bulls have become a “system team” since Thibodeau arrived, not unlike Art Briles’ Baylor. Except their system is on defense. Can Marco Belinelli be an above average defensive 2-guard? Sure. Can their 5-man line-up of Rose, Butler, Deng, Gibson, and Noah be the best defensive unit in basketball history? This line-up saw zero minutes together last season, but the 4-man group, sans Rose, eviscerated people with Nate Robinson or Kirk Hinrich at the point. While Hinrich is a solid defender, he’s, obviously, not the athlete Rose is and doesn’t cause any sort of havoc on that end of the floor. None of these guys are as unheralded as Bryce Petty at Baylor, but Carlos Boozer is a horrid defender turned average by system and effort. That isn’t supposed to happen in the NBA, where coaches like Scott Skiles ride their players for two seasons before a full-on mutiny. Thibs has a 68% winning percentage through three seasons with the Bulls, and the players haven’t shown any desire for a different system or that they’ve tired of working under Thibs.

The Bulls are coming into this season pissed-off and, with Rose back, should cruise to a 1 or 2 seed in the East playing lock-down defense and winning a lot of 82-81 games (like last night against the Knicks; the Preview’s a little late, sue me).

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NBA Preview: #3 OKC Durants

The Thunder are coming a disappointing season according to their standards.  The only reason that happened was because of the Russell Westbrook injury.  Even without James Harden, who turned out to be the best SG in the NBA, they won 60 games and were the number one seed in the West.  If Westbrook had stayed healthy they would have won the West and once again played the Heat in the Finals.  

They lost Kevin Martin this offseason, but I think his productivity can be replaced.  Many of his threes came in garbage time and he was horrible in the playoffs.  They will need Jeremy Lamb to step up this season if they want the number one seed once again.  Lamb dominated the D-League but was horrible in the league.  Their first round pick Steven Adams was expected to play in the D-League most of this season but performed so well this preseason that he should get a decent amount of minutes.  If he performs better than expect he could take some minutes away from Kendrick Perkins.

The Thunder have some questions that need to be answered this season but they still the second best player in the world in Kevin Durant.  With Westbrook out for the first 4-6 months KD is going to carry the team.  He is a 3-time scoring champ and was a 50-40-90 guy last season while averaging 28.1 points per game.  Kirk Goldsberry did a shot chart for Durant and it’s ridiculous. He has also been working on his passing to be a little more like Lebron.  It showed last season as his assist percentage increased from 16.4 to 29.2. That percentage will likely drop a bit without Westbrook but it will still be better than his career average of 17.9%.  

Russell Westbrook was the Ironman of basketball.  Until his knee injury in the first round last year he had never missed a game in high school, college, or the pros.  I think he will be fine when he comes back and still play his aggressive style of basketball.  Westbrook is probably the second most athletic point guard behind Derrick Rose.  It’s a close second too. Westbrook can jump out of the building and his dunks are some of my favorite to watch. He gets some grief about not getting Durant the ball enough but he still averaged 7.6 assists.  Westbrook is a scoring point guard first, he played the 2 at UCLA, and averaged 23.9 points per game.  The combo of Durant and Westbrook is one of the best in the NBA. They have combined for 91 in a game before.  Durant scored 51, Westbrook put up 40, and to top it off Serge Ibaka had a triple double that same game. They were the first ever to do that.  

Serge Ibaka is a block machine. For his career he has averaged 3.6 blocks per 36 minutes. For him to take that next step he needs to continue to develop his mid-range shot. He can hit it when he is wide open off a Westbrook drive to the lane but last years playoffs showed that he still needs some work offensively. He is much improved from where he was when he came into the league. But with Westbrook out during the playoffs last year Ibaka disappeared offensively. If the Thunder want to make a run at a title this year Ibaka will need to consistently hit his mid-range jumpers.

The West is stacked this year. The Spurs are the Spurs, they will be around at the end of the playoffs. The Clippers will be much improved and a threat in the playoffs. The Warriors will be a tough out if Curry and Thompson are hot. But the Thunder, even without Westbrook for the first month and half, will have the best record in the West. KD is going to go off at the beginning of the year and I think that will continue all year. Westbrook will be fine coming off his injury and Ibaka will be a defensive stopper. If they get one of their young players, Steven Adams or Jeremy Lamb, to step up they will win the West.

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NBA Preview: #4 Pacers

Posted by: Nick

Ever since Frank Vogel took over as coach of the Pacers midway through the 2010-2011 season they have advanced one round further in the playoff each year.  If this trend continues that means the Pacers would make it to the Finals this year.  Last season the Pacers gave the Heat everything they had and took the Heat to seven games.  Vogel has built this team on defense.  Last season they led the league with a defensive rating of 99.8.  It’s there tenacious defense and size that will once again make them contenders in the East.

Last year the biggest problem with the Pacers was the bench.  Whenever any of the starters were on the bench during the playoffs they got torched.  George Hill, Paul George, and David West were replaced by D.J. Augustin, Sam Young, and Tyler Hansbrough.  That’s terrible.  This offseason they made some crucial moves to increase their depth.  They got rid of Augustin, Young, and Hansbrough.  Added C.J. Watson, Chris Copeland, Luis Scola, and Danny Granger is coming back from his injury that kept him out for basically all of last season.  

Granger returning to the lineup could go many different ways.  He has a $14 million expiring contract that is a great trade asset.  With the big free agents coming in 2014 there are a couple of teams that would be willing to take on that expiring to free up more cap space for free agency.  The Pacers could also keep him.  He would be a great sixth man coming off the bench for some instant offense.  But because he is in a contract year I don’t know how happy he would be coming off the bench.  The Pacers are one piece away from being able to take down the Heat and the Granger expiring could be the way they get that player.  

Last years playoffs were the Paul George coming out party.  He made his case that he is the third best forward in the game behind only Lebron and Durant.  In my opinion he passed Carmelo because of his defense.  He is one of best wing defenders in the league and played Lebron James as well as anyone could have in the Eastern Conference Finals.  Last season he averaged 1.8 steals per game and had a defensive rating of 97.  He is a long and athletic three.  Who could forget when he blew past Lebron and threw a ferocious dunk over Birdman.  His offensive game is much improved since he came into the league.  His points per game have increased by five each year to his career high of 17.4 last season and he has a true shoot percentage of 53.1.  Paul George is going to take another step and solidify himself as a top 10 player in the league this year.  

For the Pacers to take another step forward Roy Hibbert needs to play like he did in the playoffs all season long.  Hibbert played like the giant he is in the playoffs, averaging 1.9 blocks, 9.9 rebounds, and 17 points.  Compared to his season averages of 2.6 blocks, 8.3 rebounds, and 11.9 points.  Hibbert clogged up the lane in every series and had a ridiculous block on Melo in the series against New York.  One of the most improved aspects of his game is his free throw percentage.  Last season he shot 74% from the line  and then 80% in the playoffs.  That is great for a big man.  If he can continue to shoot 80% from the line he will be dangerous in the final five minutes.  Hibbert got in great shape this offseason so he can continue to play a bunch of minutes.

The Pacers are going to have another great season with a much improved bench and the progression of Paul George and Roy Hibbert.  Frank Vogel is one of the best coaches in the league and has these guys playing for him and each other.  This was shown after the series against New York when the starting five all sat together during the post game interview.  They are going to be a 3 or 4 seed in the East and have the size to give the Heat trouble if they play them.  

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NBA Preview: #5 BROOKLYN

LeBron and D-Wade have to be pumped about the Nets fulfilling their destiny: becoming the Manchester City of the NBA. I know people have made Chelsea connections, but those really aren’t apt, except for the Russian owners. The Heat are Chelsea. They are the ones who changed the NBA paradigm. Unlike Chelsea, another club without tradition in a fashionable city, the Heat used the pull of titles, instead of money, to win. The NBA became a Big 3 league overnight, moving on from the Alpha and Beta star arrangement that dominated the association almost since its inception. Russell and Havlicek, West and Baylor, Magic and Kareem, Bird and McHale, Isiah and Dumars, Stockton and Malone, Jordan and Pippen, Kobe and Shaq, Shaq and D-Wade.

All of these teams had other good players, but if they held press conferences none of them would share top billing the way Bosh did with James and Wade. Seeing this paradigm shift, Mikhail Prokhorov made a big splash this offseason. The Nets have now blown up the paradigm again. Chelsea were the early adopters of foreign cash in the Premier League. Man City were the late-comers, the noisy neighbors, everything nouveau riche. The Nets are the same way. If the Heat can have three stars and no one else, the Nets want all the stars. And all the role-players. And all of the Forbes profiles.

The Heat, whose cap constrictions have caused them to adopt a stars and scrubs approach to basketball, with people like Joel Anthony playing meaningful minutes last season. The Nets will not have that problem. They go 10 deep with legitimate NBA players: Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Brook Lopez, Shaun Livingston, Andrei Kirilenko, Andray Blatche, Mirza Teletovic, Mason Plumlee, and Jason Terry. I know that’s 11 players, but I’m counting Terry and Plumlee as half a player, for now. By the end of the season it’ll probably be Mason 1, JET 0.

Prokhorov is bringing that oil money into the NBA. He’s financing the club like its a Premier League team or an MLB team. It would be fascinating if one of the oil sheikhs took a liking to baseball. Could you imagine if an investor from Dubai bought the Astros and started buying players left and right? I would love to see the indignation around America’s Pastime. When you’re on Putin’s good side, David Stern and Adam Silver’s salary caps and warnings do not phase you. Neither do silly things like “draft picks” or “the future”. Boston probably won the Pierce/KG trade this offseason, even though they have to pay Gerald Wallace after his premature death. The Nets don’t care. They win every trade where they get the better players. And they got the best players. And they might have the best roster in the NBA.

I am slightly confused why Prokhorov spent all this money on the roster, and then decided the Knicks’ third-string point guard was the best head coach available. Maybe Kidd will be successful, but it won’t come down to him. Lawrence Frank will do the strategy, KG will coach the defense, and Kidd will try to not mess anything up, punch anyone, or get a DUI.

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NBA Preview: #6 Houston Rockets

  Karl Malone won the NBA MVP in 1997, before being absolutely eviscerated by MJ and the Bulls in the Finals. No one in their right mind believed Malone was a better player than Jordan, or even that he was more “valuable”. People were just sick of voting for him. Why do I bring this up now? Because James Harden will win the 2013-14 MVP, culminating in Kevin Durant posting a congratulatory Tweet and Dwyane Wade tweeting something salty after only playing 63 games this season. Extra salty.

Harden is the perfect player for how the Rockets want to play. He is only good at dunks, lay-ups, and 3s. Everywhere else, he’s below average. That’s fine. The Rockets only want lay-ups and 3. Harden shot 65% at the rim last season, 29% from 3-10 feet, 31% from 10-16 feet (where he only took 70 SHOTS ALL SEASON), and 32% from 16-23 feet. He shot 36% from deep, even though a lot of those were late in the shot clock.

Harden has steadily improved every year in the League, posting PERs of 14, 16, 21, and 23 in his first four seasons. At this point, he is a 3-point and free-throw ninja, averaging over 10 FTs per game, and taking over six 3s a game. Harden’s 3PT% will improve this season. A big, tall, strong guy signed with Houston this off-season, so Harden is going to take fewer off-the-bounce fadeaway 3s. If this happens, the most efficient guy in the league (non-LeBron division) becomes even more efficient.

Harden is also a great passer, which is not necessarily demonstrated by his per-game numbers. His AST% was 25.7 last season, which is an elite number for a two-guard. I’m assuming these numbers will drop this season, as Dwight looks to turn this fun Houston team into the 2008 Magic, but Harden is still an elite passer and playmaker. Even as Dwight gobbles up possessions with post-ups, Harden should get more open looks. Chances to make the extra pass to Chandler Parsons, Jeremy Lin, or the DoMO/Terrance Jones Hybrid should boost his assist numbers.

Dwight is the real problem with Harden’s ascendance to top-3 player status. If Dwight were content to be an evolutionary Tyson Chandler, dunking everything, playing in the pick and roll, and playing great defense, the Rockets would be devastating. Alas, Dwight is Dwight. And he is horribly annoying and makes everything around him less fun. He left the Lakers because he didn’t like their offense, so he came to one that ran more pick-and-rolls. I really hope that King of the Stat Nerds Daryl Morey is able to convince Dwight to fit into the system, rather than taking it over. The Rockets should end up somewhere in the middle of where Morey/Everyone Else wants them to be and where Dwight/Dwight’s PR Team want them to be. If that’s the case, Harden averages at least 28/7/5 per game and the Rockets win 55 games. That seems like a nice narrative for a Harden/Beard MVP win, especially as the Heat struggle to hold it all together for one last title push, taking games off and resting LeBron and Wade.

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NBA Preview: #7 Clips

The Clippers are the new top dog in LA and they moves in the offseason to make sure it stays that way.  The biggest move that everyone talked about was getting Doc Rivers from the Celtics.  This is a huge upgrade.  Going from Vinny Del Negro to Doc, a top two coach, is worth ten wins.  They also acquired J.J. Redick, Jared Dudley, and Darren Collison.  Defense is still going to be a weakness for the Clips, but they are much a better overall than last season.  

J.J. Redick is going to be a great fit for the Clips.  With Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan in the paint Redick is going to be able to bomb 3’s all season long.  His three point percentage went down last season but that is because he was on two bad teams.  He was traded mid-way through the season from the Magic, where he shot about 39%, to the Bucks.  During his time with the Bucks his three point percent fell to 31.8%.  This can attributed to the fact that he had to play with Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis. They took up most of shots and forced J.J. to create for himself, something he is not comfortable with.  He will have to share time with Jamal Crawford who is one of the best sixth men the league.  It will be interesting to see how Doc divides the minutes between those two, but I think J.J. is going to have a big year getting back to his career average of about 40% from three.     

Darren Collison is no Eric Bledsoe but he will be a serviceable backup to Chris Paul.  Paul is arguably the best point guard in the league.  He is the floor general that makes this offense run.  He is deadly on the pick-and-roll.  Paul led the NBA with 1.06 points per play off the pick-and-roll, and he has been in the top five points per play off the pick-and-roll since 2005.  He can finish at the rim or lay off and throw up a lob for a guaranteed ally oop to Griffin or Jordan.  With this deadly pick-and-roll offense it will open up the three for the Clips sharpshooters.  

Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan are always on the Sportscenter highlights for their high flying dunks and ridiculous blocks.  The ally oops from Chris Paul are crazy and gave LA its new nickname Lop City.  There is no question that they are both great athletes but can they be on the floor at the same time when the game is on the line?  Jordan can’t.  Last season he had shot 38.6% on his free throws.  Teams would intentionally foul him during the game because it was a guaranteed brick and no points on that possession.  Griffin improved his free throw percentage last season to 66% from 52% the year before.  Here is a Kirk Goldsberry graphic on Griffin. Kirk is, again, the Nate Silver of geography. 'Preciate everything he does.

Griffin has improved his mid-range shot from one side but still has work to do.  If he improves that shot from the other side watch out.  

The Clippers are going to be a great regular season team this year.  After they imploded against the Grizzlies last season they are out for revenge.  Doc Rivers is a great coach and that will get them through round one, but the West is so stacked with great teams that the Clippers will have to learn to play defense.  If they can do this they might be able to make it to the Conference finals but I don’t see them getting to the Finals.  They will still be fun to watch but aren’t quite Western Conference Champion material yet.  But who knows Doc Rivers is a fantastic coach and all his players love to play for him and that goes a long way.

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NBA Preview: #8 San Antonio Spurs

If you haven’t read Zach Lowe’s piece about Kawhi Leonard, go do that now.

Moving past Kawhi’s jump, the Spurs are the Spurs. Crisp ball movement, Tony Parker, Manu. Timmay.

However, they could have made big moves this offseason by renouncing Tiago Splitter and Manu Ginobili. I dislike both of those moves, but see the rationale behind them. I think Manu is done. Obviously, the Spurs don’t. Pretty easy to see why we would disagree there, and I’d trust R.C. Buford and Pops over me, I guess. They have four titles and like ten people read this blog. Moving on.

The Spurs also re-signed Tiago Splitter for 4 years and $36 million this offseason, maintaining the status quo but also restricting any options the Spurs have moving forward. Splitter showed his deficiencies in the Finals last season, as his minutes dropped from 24 in the Game 1 victory, to 5 in the Game 7 loss. On the floor with Miami’s freakishly athletic front-line (James, Bosh, Birdman), Splitter was overrun. After posting an 18.7 PER during the regular season, Splitter posted a (still around league average) 13.5 PER during the playoffs, mostly on the back of his abysmal Finals performance.

If the goal of the season is to win the title (which it is), then the Spurs’ signing of Splitter is the correct move. The Spurs window has to close eventually, right? The currently created Spurs have this season, and maybe one more to win a title. They need Splitter to be competitive, allow Duncan to rest during the regular season, and bang with Dwight in Houston. But, it’s difficult to swallow paying a guy $9 million who won’t be able to play during a hypothetical Finals.

I still hate the move. Splitter is a useful piece, but he isn’t a starter title-winning Spurs team as currently constructed.* He isn’t a great rebounded outside of his area, posting a 15.3 TRB% for his career. For some context, Kevin Love’s career TRB% is 21.5, roughly 33% better than Splitter. Splitter is a solid rebounder, solid scorer, and solid defender. In today’s NBA, that is worth $9 million, especially when you’re a legit center. But, the way the Spurs want to play on offense and defense, Splitter can’t play in crunch time. I think the resources they used to re-sign Splitter could have been used more efficiently, either towards a future Kawhi Leonard deal or another free-agent scorer.

I do love the Marco Belinelli signing. He learned how to play defense under Tom Thibodeau in Chicago, and should fit in well in Pop’s system; making 3s, creating, and just generally being a taller, better, more Italian Gary Neal. Hopefully he can find some good veal parm in San Antonio. That’s a huge drop Italian food wise from Chicago. Mi dispiace, Mario!

*All predictions null and void if Kawhi becomes Paul George 2.0

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NBA Preview: #9 Grit 'N Grind

This is a post about Kosta Koufos. Below, you will find 640 words about Kosta Koufos. That is not something I thought I would type. Ever.

Kosta Koufos was the Grizzlies’ biggest acquisition of the off-season. That doesn’t seem like much. It is. Koufos was George Karl’s favorite of the 3-Headed Center Monster in Denver last season, providing stability on both ends of the floor the JaVale McGee (I’m shocked) and Timofey Mozgov (again, shocked) couldn’t match. Even after McGee signed a big contract in the summer of 2012, Karl still refused to start him over Koufos, who started all 81 games in which he played. Even as Nuggets’ fans clamored for JaVale (and really, who wouldn’t clamor for more Javale?), Karl stuck with Koufos throughout the season. In the playoffs, Karl switched his rotation, benching Koufos, but not truly reducing his minutes per game. The Nuggets won 55 games with Koufos starting, so this looks to be a bit of a panic move from Karl, a coach with a less-than-stellar playoff track record. After Karl was fired, Koufos was quickly shipped to the Grizzlies’ for Darrell Arthur and a second-round pick, King Joffrey Lauvergne. Anytime you can get royalty, you gotta do it.

The Grizzlies’ five best line-ups last season all featured Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, and the two big-men each played around 35 minutes per-game. This Grizzlies’ offense went as Gasol and Z-Bo went. This is unsustainable moving forward.

In particular, Randolph, who is 32, will not maintain his 20 and 10 production for more than one more season. Koufos will reduce the Grizzlies’ reliance on Gasol and Randolph, playing 20-24 minutes a game at both the four and the five. In particular, Koufos should allow Z-Bo’s usage rate to drop to around 20%, commensurate with Gasol.

Exchanging Arthur gives the Grit ‘N Grind crew the best big-man rotation in the NBA. Obviously, the Grizzlies weren’t slouches last season, as Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, and Ed Davis are three excellent pieces. But, Koufos adds another dimension off the bench that Arthur does not bring. He is serviceable defensively, but is an exceedingly efficient offensive play, posting a PER of at least 17 for the past two years. His usage rate is lower than Arthur’s, which could explain his higher efficiency, but there is more to it. He rebounds at a much higher rate than Arthur, with a career rebound rate 5% higher.

One potential pitfall to the Randolph-Koufos pairing is Koufos’ lack of passing ability. Gasol, perhaps the best passing big man in the league along with Joakim Noah, props up the Grizzlies’ cramped offense through clever high-low passes, slip passes, and ridiculous stuff like this, from EUROBASKET. Neither Koufos nor Randolph comes close to Gasol, and Koufos posted an anemic 2.6 AST% last season, compared to 19.1 for Gasol. If the Grizzlies’ shooters, Jerryd Bayless, Tayshaun Prince, and Quincy Pondexter, do not improve, a post-centric offense of Koufos and Randolph could be too cramped to get things done.

However, Koufos is an excellent pick-and-roll big man. Like James Harden and Nick Collison in Oklahoma City, circa 2011, Bayless and Koufos should be a very efficient duo. Given that most of his finishes were around the basket, Koufos’s 58% FG% isn’t a be-all stat, but it is a huge improvement from Darrell Arthur’s 45%, albeit it on a different set of shots. If Koufos and Conley/Bayless can develop into potent pick-and-roll combinations, the Grizzlies offense will be more varied, reducing the team’s reliance on Gasol to create for others and Randolph to create for himself.

It seems very strange to write the Kosta Koufos could swing the Western Conference playoff picture, but it’s accurate. They replaced a finesse, jump-shooting big with an efficient, pick-and-roll beast who can keep their two best players rested for the stretch run. Besides giving up King Joffrey, that’s a great trade.

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NBA Preview: #10 The Dubs, Super Splash Bros, Best Team Ever

The Splash Bros are back! The duo of Klay Thompson and Steph Curry have the best nickname in all of professional sports and the Warriors were just voted “the most fun to watch” team in the NBA in a survey of NBA GM’s. In that same survey Steph Curry was voted “the best pure shooter” and newcomer Andre Iguodala is the 4th best defensive player in the league.

There is a lot of hope for the Warriors this season after coming off its first playoff series win since 2007. They “upset” the 3 seed Denver Nuggets in six games. Then lost to the eventual conference champion, the San Antonio Spurs, in six. But it was a great series and the Warriors had their chances to win. Harrison Barnes grew up right in front of our eyes against the Spurs, and not having David Lee to secure defensive boards cost the Dubs a few possessions a game. Curry and Klay Thompson both made some costly errors in Game 1 which allowed the Spurs to steal that game. I'm chalking these up to growing pains, mainly because I love their backcourt so damn much.

The Warriors made some great offseason moves, although they lost Jarrett Jack, who played great for them during the playoffs. I think letting him move on was the right decision, as he got overpaid(ish) by Cleveland, and they want Thompson or Curry taking the last shot, not Jarrett Freaking Jack. They were able to get rid of the untradeable contracts of Brandon Rush and Richard Jefferson. Iguodala is a great addition to this young Warriors team, improving a defense that gave up a league worst 100.5 points per game. Part of this is due to pace, but even adjusting for pace, nobody would confuse GSW for a "good" defensive team. Well, except Preacher Mark Jackson. Iggy will take some of the defensive pressure off Klay Thompson, giving his legs a rest and hopefully improving his late-game and playoff play.  One note on Iggy Pop: last season he had an 11.6% foul rate but shot 57.4% from the line. That was fourth worst in the league last season (among qualifying players), behind/ahead of Dwight Howard, Josh Smith, and Omer Asik.  

One of the questions I have about the Iguodala pick up is will it slow down the development of Harrison Barnes? Barnes will now be coming off the bench and become their sixth man. Last season he averaged 25.4 minutes and 9.2 points per game during the regular season, but in the playoffs he exploded for 16.2 points per game when he averaged 38.4 minutes. It will be interesting to see if Barnes can provide the instant offense that might be needed.  

But, offense isn't really a worry in Golden State. Last season the Curry and Thompson duo combined for an NBA record 483 3’s. Curry made an NBA record 272 and Thompson made 211. Both of these guys can get hot at any time and drain 3’s almost at will. Thompson made 40.6% of his 3’s last season, but had a PER of only 12.7. I expect his PER to increase with the addition of Iguodala, decreasing some of his ball-handling responsibilities and increasing his efficiency. 

Bold prediction: Klay Thompson will make more 3s than Steph Curry this season. A healthy David Lee and Andrew Bogut will also help open up the corner three for Thompson when the double-team comes. They are both effective passers, with Bogut capable of the flashy.  Thompson should look forward to a lot more of the juicy corner 3s this season, with 4 other guys on the floor who can draw double-teams in the post, or through slash and kick.

The Warriors will go as Steph Curry’s ankles go. After almost missing the entire 2011 season he showed what he is able to do when he is healthy.  Who could forget the shooting clinic that Curry put on at Madison Square Garden in April. He had points and was 11 of 13 from three.  He is one of three players that you feel can make the shot from anywhere on the floor.  Curry had a 21.3 PER, shot 45.3% from three, 45.1% from the floor, and averaged 6.9 assists. Not to mention he made 90% of his free throws.  If he stays healthy all season he could be 50-40-90 guy. If he is able to that and Bogut stays healthy all season they will be a force in the playoffs.  

The Dubs should finish around the 5th or 6th seed in the West. Once the playoffs start, anything can happen, especially with the rabid fans in Oracle Arena. But even if that doesn’t happen and they take a tiny step back they are still the number one League Pass team. Curry is too fun to watch and you never know when he is going to go off. This shot chart by Kirk Goldsberry, the Nate Silver of maps, show why.

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NBA Preview: #11 Knickerbockers

A lot of words have already been written about the Knicks’ picking up Andrea Bargnani. I don’t love the move, but it does give them some interesting match up options. If Kenyon Martin can play solid post defense, Bargnani could be an effective “Stretch 5”, keeping the floor spread and letting Carmelo and JR work.

The Knicks are full of known commodities. We know what ‘Melo will bring. Same goes for Tyson Chandler, Amar’e, JR Smith (well, as much as anyone can truly know what JR will do), Metta World Peace, Bargs, etc. Only a few players on the roster have an unknown ceiling and floor. Leaving aside Tim Hardaway, Jr., an interesting rookie who won’t see much burn, these two guys are Beno Udrih and Iman Shumpert, seen above looking like an extra from Prince's crew. "Game...blouses".

Udrih should be an effective scoring point off the bench, and he will start the season filling in for Pablo Prigioni during his injury spell. Udrih should supplant Prigs in the rotation completely. Neither is a plus defender, but Prigioni probably has the edge in that regard. Barely. Offensively, Udrih is the far superior player, shooting in the high 30% range from deep and offering more (read: any) creativity off the bounce.

Udrih can also run the offense, something Prigioni cannot do, as he ceded most of the playmaking duties with the second unit to JR Smith last season. JR is great, and he and NYC are made for each other (Sidebar: can you see JR offering random Milwaukeeans the pipe via Twitter?), but he’s not an efficient player. Duh. He’s a taker and maker of bad shots, which is something the Knicks needed last season, as their offense lacked a defining characteristic and movement. If Udrih can bring more cohesion to the second unit, the Knicks’ offense should be able to remain competent even without ‘Melo on the floor.

Like Udrih, Shumpert is a big plus on one end of the floor and a relative minus on the other. Shumpert missed time last season, playing only 45 games, but showed an improved jumper in those games, moving from 30% to 40% from deep. If Shumpert can consolidate those gains, and show they weren’t small sample size variance, he becomes extremely valuable to the Knicks. Coming out of GA Tech as a point guard, its been interesting to watch Shumpert’s transition to the wing. Even with the improved 3PT%, Shumpert still was not an efficient offensive player, posting an 11.7 PER. But, other good signs persist. He dropped his TOV% from 16.0 to 11.1. This is a bit misleading, as his usage rate (USG%) also dropped, but it is still a positive sign that Shumpert is slotting into his role.

At the moment, the Knicks have enough creators, with ‘Melo and JR Smith. But, for a team that will be capped out until infiniti, they need Shumpert to develop into more than a marginal 3 and D guy, and become a building block. As a former point guard, he should have the skills to develop a more all-around offensive game, but his game in college was predicated on being bigger and faster than most everyone else. Shumpert’s development is huge for the Knicks ability to be anything but a second-round out in the foreseeable future.

Just a small note on Carmelo Anthony. I know LaLa loves LA, and he said he wants to test the free-agent market, but he isn’t leaving. This is his final big contract and the Knicks can offer him roughly $30 million more than any other team. Also, the Knicks aren’t signing and trading him, as their whole game-plan surrounds re-signing ‘Melo and hoping the pieces around him are enough for one playoff run where Anthony goes crazy. They are banking on being Syracuse 2003. In that analogy, JR Smith is Gerry McNamara. That’s great.

Final note: Cole Aldrich has replaced Jorts as the Knicks token country white guy. Jorts went to the Pistons because of course. They are all of America's Team. 

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NBA Preview: #12 America's Team

Posted by: Nick

It has been a tough year for Detroit as a city. They declared bankruptcy, the Tigers lost in the ALCS, and the Lions are well, the Lions. But the city of Detroit should be excited about the Pistons upcoming season. They have a revamped roster coming into the 2013-2014 season and are gunning for the playoffs. This offseason they acquired Brandon Jennings, Chauncey Billups, and Josh Smith. Jennings is a solid point guard and Josh Smith led the Hawks to the playoffs every year he was there.  Chauncey Billups returns to the Pistons for the final chapter of his career.  He played in Detroit for six seasons and led them to six straight conference championships, three NBA finals, and won the finals in 2004.  If he can help bring the Pistons back to the playoffs I can’t think of a better way to end his career.  

They have a new head coach, Mo Cheeks, to go along with all the new faces on the roster. It might take them a month or so to get accustomed to playing new positions and learning each others style of play. The emergence of Andre Drummond will force Greg Monroe to play a majority of his time at the 4 instead of the 5. This will take some time for Monroe to adjust but he should be able to make the jump because of his great speed for his size. Drummond and Monroe will be great to watch when the Pistons decide to play big.  

Chauncey Billups will be a great mentor for the Pistons first round draft pick Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Caldwell-Pope is an extremely athletic shooting guard who is deadly from three out of Georgia and will take some time to mature in the league. If Drummond shows that he demands a double team it could lead to a bunch of wide open shots for Caldwell-Pope. I’m taking him late in my fantasy draft as a sleeper pick who could end up getting starter's minutes by the middle to end of the season.

But all Pistons fans should be looking forward to watching Andre Drummond come into his own this year.  Drummond was their first round pick in 2012 out of UCONN. He is an athletic center but there were questions about his work ethic and whether or not he should have stayed at Connecticut on more year.  He showed off his athleticism last year but only played in 60 games because of a back injury. In those 60 games he had a PER of 21.6 and an Effective Field Goal Percentage of 61%. He only averaged 7.9 points and 7.6 rebounds per game, but his per 36 minute stats are good. Per 36 minutes he averaged 13.8 points, 13.2 rebounds, 2.8 blocks, and 1.7 steals. Those are solid stats for a young rookie, he was a young 19 most of last year. This year I expect his per game stats to be around that, shooting around 60% and averaging 15 and 12.  Also, look at that picture. He's just the best. Also, part 2: iCarly.

If he turns into a double-double machine and it doesn’t take too long for the players to mesh they are going to be a tough out in the first round.  I’m projecting them to be the six seed in the East. If the Pacers end up with the three seed they will probably be able to handle them because of their size. If they end up playing an old Nets team, this front court is young, big, and athletic. It would be fantastic to watch Drummond and Monroe play against KG and Brook Lopez.  

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NBA Preview: #13 Washington Wizards

After John Wall came back from injury last season, the Wizards played above .500, and would’ve been the 5th seed had their record been extrapolated over the entire season. This year, improvement from Bradley Beal and a full season from max-contracted JOHN WALL should have the Wiz comfortably in the playoffs.

In the 461 minutes Beal and Wall played together in 2012, they blitzed the league, coming in at 8.6 points per 100 possessions better than their opponents. There are two problems with this. First, that’s a small sample size, meaning it is more prone to variance due to luck, strength of opposition, and other factors. Second, its a small sample size, meaning that Wall was hurt a lot.

Looking at 5-man combinations, the Wizards projected starters (pre-Okafor injury), in an even smaller sample size of 141 minutes, beat teams by 27 points. This continues with any line-up that has John Wall in it. While most of these line-ups also have Okafor, its easier to replace an aging, defense-first center than it is to replace the quickest and most-athletic point guard in the league (post-Westbrook and D-Rose injuries, of course).

Otto Porter was the third pick in the draft. There are already 751,000 google results for “otto porter bust”. This seems a bit premature off the back of a few shaky summer league games. Porter was obviously very good at Georgetown last season, and although he somewhat shit the bed in the NCAA Tournament, he has the length, skills, and motor to be an effective SF. He needs to get his jumper straightened out, and on a team will play-off ambitions, he will be pushed down the rotation by newly-minted Martell Webster and oldly-minted Trevor Ariza. I think the Wizards are overpaying their SF combo a bit.

Martell Webster will make almost $6 million this year to shoot 3s and play almost no defense. Does that sound good to you? If so, you should play for the Wizards and hire Arn Tellem as your agent. This was a classic NBA package deal, with Tellem securing a sweet deal for one of his lesser clients, while keeping the actual prize, Wall, away from free agency.

Emeka Okafor, the team’s defensive anchor and starting center, hurt his neck this off-season and is out “indefinitely” with that injury. That’s no good for Wiz’ fans, but it could be great for League Pass observers. Kevin Seraphim, a 4th-year center from France, will take some of Okafor’s minutes. A Seraphim for Okafor switch isn’t good for Wiz’ fans or anyone else. But, the rest of the minutes could be scooped up by three intriguing options.

First, Otto Porter, the predetermined first-round bust, could play some minutes as a small-ball 4. If he can defend at a high enough level, this could be really fun, and watching he, Beal, and Webster/Trevor Ariza run with John Wall would be really fun.

More likely is that veteran Al Harrington, on his 36924988367th NBA team, will play these minutes in the same role. This is less interesting to casual observers, but more conducive to winning basketball games. So I fully expect Randy Wittman to not do it.

Least likely is that Jan Vesely, he of the hot girlfriend and hot-potato hands, gets to play some of these minutes. This almost definitely will not happen, or if it does, Wall will break his nose with a no-look pass 4 games in, sending him back to the sidelines with his harem of tall, Eastern European women. Jan’s cool either way.