I'm insane.
But you already knew that.
So this week, lets talk about everyone's favourite topic: Financial Shenanigans of the Rich and Famous(?)
That's right, it's the boring math thread no one was asking for:
"How To Get Around The Salary Cap When You Want to Sign a Generational Talent But You Already Signed His Generational Talent Husband"
Spoilers for The Long Game; they're minor and hey, the title reveals most of them.
CANON EVENT YOU NEED TO KNOW:
COVID did not happen in the GCU, so I am basing Salary Cap increases on the 2mil increase seen year over year prior to COVID.
NHL SHIT YOU NEED TO KNOW:
1. The NHL salary cap is a hard cap, that is, its the same for every team and cannot be fucked with.
2. The cap increases by about 2 million every year
3. Performance bonuses do apply to the cap, but they apply the next year. Signing bonuses apply the year the contract is signed.
4. All players starting in the NHL start with an Entry Level Contract (ELC). The length of this contract is based on your age when you are signed. If you sign between 18 and 21, it's three years long. That amount is standardized. However, you don't sign an ELC when you're drafted, you sign it when you actually join the NHL. If you're in the farm teams, you don't sign an NHL contract. Teams can draft players with potential who need more development but pay them less.
5. Wyatt was cheap because he was TO's back up goalie, but that contract is up and Wyatt deserves to make bank, because he's been incredible in Ottawa
6. Bood's new Salary is high, but not higher than Ilya or Troy.
7. Luca's ELC is still active, but will be up soon. Ottawa will want to keep him, but he's gonna be pricey.
Abbreviations:
UFA: Unrestricted Free Agent
RFA: Restricted Free Agent
ARE WE READY FOR SOME NUMBERS?!
Pictured: year by year salary caps.
The GCU Salary Cap in 2021 is 83.5mil, based on a 2mil increase year over year.
Centaur Salaries and why I chose them, by position:
CENTRES
Ilya: 12.5mil. This is what Connor McDavid makes. In 2018 he was the highest paid player in the NHL. Also, if Ilya signed his initial extension in 2013, the year his ELC was up, he would have been paid 9.5mil, (Ovechkin's salary, highest paid at the time). This significant increase is why Boston couldn't re sign him; they didn't have the cap space.
Boyle: (second line centre, maybe?) 4mil. Based on what middling centres are paid. He's the current second line, but he isn't very good. This is why Ottawa needs depth at centre.
Holmberg: (rookie, and I am just sticking the rookies wherever): 925k, he's on an ELC. It's not clear of he's any good, so who knows? He may not be re signed
4th line centre: 1mil. This might be generous.
WINGERS
Troy: 9.5mil. Troy was chosen for the All Star team in 2019, and is referred to as a superstar. He's at least worth the same as Nikita Kucherov. And Ottawa would have taken on his entire salary, even if TO wanted him gone fast, in order for Ottawa to get him for a couple draft picks. Salary retention is a thing I can discuss in the comments if anyone asks.
Bood: 8.3mil. Bood is well liked in the room, plus he's the A. He's at least worth a Tkachuk. This is the big raise Shane refers to
Dillon: 3mil. Dillon is not very good, but they had him on the first line for awhile, so he's not the worst.
Luca: 925k, but that's because he's still on an ELC. As Shane says, Luca is gonna be worth real money in a couple years. I'm putting his extension at 7.75mil, the same that Andrei Svechnikov signed for after his ELC. This is probably low, but Luca is an RFA after his ELC is up so he has to let Ottawa offer for him first, and give them the opportunity to match offers, and they likely will.
Young & LaPointe: Rookies, 925k each, ELC. Again, unclear if they'll be re signed, or when their ELCs are up
2 additional wings, 1.5mil each
DEFENSE:
Dykstra and Chouinard: 5mil each. Ottawa doesn't seem to have a defense problem, just a shit goalie, so their defense pairs are likely paid well
4 additional dmen: 1mil each
GOALIES:
Wyatt: 7mil new contract.
Great couple seasons. I am thinking Wyatt is definitely worth what Marc Andre Fleury made in 2021.
Back Up Goalie: 1mil.
SUBSTITUTES:
Every team has the ability to have 23 active players on it's roster. Let's assume that Ottawa has three rando subs (not including the BUG) worth 800k each.
IF YOU DO THE MATH
Based on what everyone is currently paid, there actually IS cap space for Shane; the remaining cap for Ottawa is 14.1mil. If they pay Shane what they pay Ilya, they still even have almost 2mil left.
But Shane has seen the way Luca performed this season, and knows Luca is gonna be worth A LOT. I put him at 7.75mil, and that's a reasonable projection. Which leaves Ottawa with 6.35mil in their cap.
Shane is worth WAY more than that.
Even if Luca's ELC isn't up for two years, and the 2mil raise for those two years is dedicated to Luca, Ottawa can't afford Luca, and still pay Shane what he's worth.
Here are some options the Centaurs could use:
1. They could drop their three randos and pray to god no one every gets scratched from the roster due to a short term injury, or put any injuries on Long Term Injured Reserve. A team must have 20 players available to play, so the first is needlessly reckless.
A player on LTIR doesn't count towards cap space, but abusing the LTIR is frowned upon. It happens, but it's gross.
2. The Centaurs can put one of their pricier centres on waivers, or trade him for future draft picks. Shane would be replacing that player anyway. Waivers free up cap space by either sending the player to the minors, making them available for trade, or terminating their contract. Boyle, my presumed second line centre, is a likely choice, freeing up 4mil in cap space.
I assume Ottawa goes with choice #2.
That leaves us with 10.35mil available for Shane. Which is still about 2mil less than Shane is worth.
2mil seems small, but Shane just won a cup, he's a generational talent, he's the best player in the league. He's older, 30, but we only know of one significant injury, the concussion when he 26. Shane is still in his prime, but this contract he's about to sign should carry him to retirement. He's likely looking for a seven year contract.
Enter signing bonuses
The Centaurs can sign Shane for 10.35mil, but in his first year, when they have that extra cap space, they can give him a nice big signing bonus, about 4mil, which brings him up to about the same as Ilya over two years.
If Shane only signs a five year contract, at his next signing, Shane can start signing year over year with performance bonuses, because Shane will be over 35, and that's when performance based bonuses are back on the table after your ELC expires.
What are performance bonuses?
Exactly what they sound like. Bonuses tied to how you play. They're usually offered to players who are close to retirement.
This year, Alex Ovechkin signed a one year contract with the Capitals. He signed for exactly what he always made, but its assigned differently now. His base salary is only 1mil, but he has a sogning bonus of 3.25mil, and, more importantly, he has a performance bonus of 4.75mil
Pictured: Ovi's contract
Perfomance bonuses do hit the cap, but not til the next year, when the cap increases anyway.
If Ovi doesn't meet his performance conditions, he doesn't get the bonus. And if he DOES meet the conditions, but retires, he gets paid out of the cap space his retirement clears up.
Additionally, when Shane's 5 year contract is up, in 2026, the cap jumps significantly. It's 104mil. Those perfomance bonuses can be pretty huge. And you know Shane has never met a perfomance he can't handle.
Also, they can include in Shane's new contract non movement clauses and no trade clauses, which are good bonuses to have when you're preparing to settle down. And he gets to cement his legacy, and play on the same team as Ilya, which he's dreamed about, and he's able to openly love Ilya with the full support of his team, coaches and Admin.
If you want me to talk more about waivers or free agency or salary retention please just ask.
Shane is going to do just fine.
