Since I am still seeing a lot of misinformation out there, I figured I'd do a fact check post. Note that I do not personally have a copy of the leaked draft; some resources are given at the end of the post. See also the 2000 OGL v1.0a here. This is noncomprehensive, is only touching on some of the things I've seen most commonly in the tags [sidebar: the only tag I check regularly is the Critical Role tag, and much of what I've seen on Tumblr is coming from people spamming that tag for general D&D content that only tangentially mentions CR, so...stop doing that.] Finally, this is based on what is a draft, and there are quite possibly going to be updates to the final document. I would also assume that the January 13th effective date will be changed based on the release date of the finalized OGL.
Free fan content is not affected. That is covered by the Fan Content Policy. Your personal homebrew or the weird-ass build you saw on Reddit or the item you saw in a post last week are all fine.
Actual play shows should be largely unaffected, and only merchandise containing WoTC IP would be. (NOTE: original posting of this post had a typo of "affected" for "unaffected"; check your reblogs) Shows like Critical Role, NADDPod, and D20 all use homebrew settings, so that's also unaffected (as is any Exandrian content that was published in the Explorer's Guide and Call of the Netherdeep; that is CR's IP that WoTC has license to use). A show might be affected if they've set the game in a WoTC licensed setting or with a WoTC module (eg: Eberron, Ravenloft), but most of the shows that do that are put out by WoTC anyway. Critical Role and TAZ have, notably, already avoided using copyrighted terms for deities, races, etc. in published non-WoTC works (this is why Melora is exclusively the Wildmother in the Tal'Dorei guides, because "Melora" is WoTC IP, but the idea of a nature goddess is obviously not; this is also why Cree in the Nine Eyes is referred to as catfolk and not a tabaxi, or why Phandalin's name in the TAZ graphic novels is changed to Haverdale). The only reason why a show might need to switch game systems would be if they use a system that is not D&D but is based on D&D's SRD and which will be subject to the OGL changes. Most Pathfinder shows I'm aware of use the Pathfinder SRD (ie, free), and SW5e as used in Starstruck Odyssey is also free. This also only affects the future of those shows.
VTTs (Virtual Tabletop Tools) may be affected, but most of their core features aren't. Battle maps and virtual dice rollers are not WoTC IP. Incorporating the mechanics of D&D into the VTT is, but that would mean actively having a character sheet or monster statblock available within the VTT. You could still just have a dice roller that prompts you for a modifier (which is how I always personally used Foundry). D&D Beyond will not be affected, since it is owned by WoTC. Additionally, many VTTs already have existing agreements specifically with WoTC that will take precedence over the OGL, which is a catch-all for companies that do not have specific licensing agreements. See the WoTC/D&D Beyond blog post here.
Only creators making over $750,000 specifically on material licensed under the OGL will be subject to royalties, and only on income in excess of $750,000. This means that if you put something up on DMs Guild and make $500, you are fine and owe nothing. If you make $749,999, you owe nothing. If you make $750,100, you owe the 25% royalty only on the $100 you are making above $750,000. WoTC predicts under two dozen companies will actually be affected by this at this time; they are all fairly big names within the D&D content arena such as Paizo, Darrington Press (CR's imprint), Hit Point Press, Green Ronin, Kobold Press, etc. Royalties also are said to begin in 2024, so companies have a year to decide what to do.
Now for the editorializing part:
Paizo is specifically in the crosshairs and anyone telling you to switch to it is either misinformed at best, or does not have your best interests at heart. Paizo is the main target here. The others are publishing material that serve as supplements to the core WoTC products, but do not replace them. For example: if you have either of the Tal'Dorei Campaign Setting books, you will note that they do not have stats for the races mentioned, nor the core class information. If you want to play a Cobalt Soul Monk, you still need the PHB in addition to the Tal'Dorei setting books. On some level, this is almost certainly due to Paizo being like "look! we're like D&D but we're not! switch to us!" And, understandably, WoTC is saying "hey, you took our SRD game engine and are now our largest competitor", which is also almost certainly why this is overriding the OGL 1.0a under which Pathfinder was originally created. I am not saying not to switch to a different TTRPG if you want to! You should always feel free to switch to a different TTRPG if D&D is not meeting your needs! I am saying that Pathfinder is probably your absolute worst bet in terms of things likely to be affected by the OGL, and anyone telling you to switch to it is telling you to jump from an ocean liner into a slightly smaller ship heading straight for a waterfall solely because the ocean liner stopped serving bottomless brunch.
People throwing this to actual play shows do not know what they are talking about and are just trying to start shit. Self-explanatory; why should Dimension 20 or whatever put out a statement on an unofficial leaked draft that minimally affects them.
Bad faith is common and everpresent. As discussed extensively on this blog in scattered bitchy shitposts, there are a lot of people who hate D&D/WoTC, or Critical Role, or other popular actual play shows. Sometimes their reasons are valid and sometimes their reasons are stupid. It doesn't really matter though; what matters is that their minds are made up and they will be telling you to switch game systems/stop listening or watching pretty much regardless of what the companies do. If you want to switch or stop listening, that's fine! But, as mentioned, I remember a few months ago someone arguing that you should switch from D&D because they were obviously going to start licensing NFTs for profitability reasons, and now the OGL specifically prohibits that. There's a lot being pulled out of thin air to make spurious arguments. In general, it is helpful to ask yourself "is this person recommending a game because they genuinely believe it will improve my life and better fit my individual tastes and needs? Or are they just being a dick about D&D or this specific actual play show and don't give a shit about my happiness, just as long as I'm not playing the game/watching the show that they, an internet stranger with bad vibes to boot, do not personally like."
YouTubers are trying to get views, and that is usually their primary goal. Also self-explanatory. If you're trusting the same people who decided that Silvery Barbs would ruin D&D which had also already been ruined by the chronomancy class, the fact that some sorcerers get more spells than other sorcerers, the fact that healing word exists... to tell you that this has ruined D&D? I don't think I can help you.
Several of the things people are freaking out about are either standard boilerplate now, or were in the original OGL. OGL 1.0a reserves the right to terminate the license with 30 days notice as well (item 13); stating that material you make via an open license can be used freely by the owner of that IP is fairly standard legal practice.
D&D Beyond/OneD&D blog post
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