Many theories in the asoiaf fandom are entrenched to the point of being widely considered canon and one that particularly annoys me (and that is related to the post above, hence why I’m adding this to it) is the notion that prophecies don’t matter and that what matters is what you do despite them.
What is the canon basis for this? AFAIK, this theory was created by big name fans and has its basis on a) their criticism of Rhaegar and how the characters will react to R+L=J and Rhaegar’s attempts to save the world based on prophecies and b) their personal interpretations of GRRM’s previous works, such as Dying of the Light. They tend to assume that Jon’s future storyline will involve abandoning his fight for humanity because, among other reasons, he won’t want to be the vessel for a prophecy that his father expected him to fulfill.
There are many problems with this.
The most obvious problem is that BNFs created this theory backwards by thinking of a) minor characters and how they relate to the protagonists instead of the other way around and b) their interpretations of GRRM’s past works and how they relate to ASOIAF instead of primarily focusing on what is undoubtedly canon in ASOIAF.
Then there’s also how they assume that their criticism of Rhaegar will necessarily be validated by GRRM. While his character deserves criticism for how he treated Elia, I do think that he’s supposed to be viewed much more positively than how BNFs paint him. a) Rhaegar is Dany’s main source of inspiration and her views on him have gone unchallenged for five books, unlike with Aerys (who, in contrast, is clearly being set up for Dany to have a change of heart); b) GRRM could have added viewpoints that were critical of Rhaegar’s actions in order to seed Jon’s (supposed) future negative reaction to him, but he added three that idealize him (Cersei, Barristan and JonCon); c) GRRM could have shown the Dornish resenting Rhaegar for what he did to Elia in Arianne’s chapters, but he never did; d) GRRM is not immune to romanticizing relationships between teenage girls and grown men (which we were recently reminded of with Dany/Drogo), so it’s far from certain that he is woke enough to portray R+L (and Jon’s reaction to it) as critically as they expect.
BNFs have frequently hammered home the fact that GRRM’s intention is not to subvert tropes (i.e. to play bait and switch with it), but to deconstruct these tropes (i.e. to admit their flaws and put them back together in a way that strengthens them). As I said above, having a marginalized figure such as Dany be the savior is an example of good deconstruction because one wouldn’t expect her of all people to be the chosen one (or a queen, or a leader). And yet, they try to undermine the importance of prophecies and chosen ones because of a speculation (that “prophecies don’t matter and that what matters is what you do despite them” is a theme) based on a speculation (that GRRM will be critical of Rhaegar’s actions and have Jon rebel against the prophecies that his father believed in).
And why do they do that? Because of their personal biases. By saying that prophecies don’t matter and subtly undermining the importance of a Chosen One heroine like Dany, this helps their case that she’s going to die saving the world along with Jon and Tyrion and that the other trio (Bran, Arya and Sansa, the latter of whom was never listed among GRRM’s Key Five characters) will rebuild the world. Nevermind that Dany, Tyrion and Jon are the ones who had actual experience in ruling. Nevermind that Dany shares many parallels with Bran, who is guaranteed to survive. Nevermind that having Dany sacrifice herself would mean reducing her to her role as a dragonrider and wasting the skills that she’s developed as queen and leader (whereas, as far as I know, it’s largely acknowledged that the Starklings’ training will pay off in the story’s endgame somehow). Nevermind that GRRM has made Dany’s leadership style particularly balanced, making it dubious that he’s setting her up to fail. Nevermind that Rule of Three always applies for Dany and that GRRM created another Daenerys in F&B to make our Daenerys the third one, allowing for speculations that she will live and rule. Nevermind that Dany had her first child killed and miscarried her second one, allowing for speculations that she will have a (third) living child by the end of the book series. Nevermind that there are many other reasons to think that Dany will survive.
Now, don’t get me wrong: I’m a Dany stan. I have my own biases as well and I own them.
I know that there is evidence (which I personally find much less convincing) to think that Jon is AA/TPTWP instead of Dany, but I hope it’s her based on textual evidence. (Note that it’s impossible to split the titles and make Dany AA and Jon TPTWP because GRRM confirmed in an interview that the two prophecies refer to the same savior)
I know that Dany could accidentally burn King’s Landing (which is another theory that they talk about as if it was canon) and that she could die saving the world, but I hope that that doesn’t happen because there’s textual evidence to think that it won’t. Even then, I do think that those theories warrant criticism regardless of whether they actually happen or not (see here, here and here).
Unfortunately, big name fans don’t own their biases, don’t listen to alternative speculations, don’t rely on canon as much as one might expect and pretend to be impartial in their analyses and speculations when they aren’t.
This is why you don’t see them including Dany in their criticism of the misogyny in ASOIAF: they don’t care about one of the story’s two female leads. They don’t care about the misogynistic implications in their theory that Dany accidentally burns King’s Landing (which is conveniently reminiscent of Stannis’s arc, another one of their faves). They would rather focus on their Dead Ladies Club, which also explains why a minor character like Rhaegar is key to this fanon assumption that prophecies don’t matter and that what matters is what you do despite them.
This is why they love to talk about the intelligence of queen consorts and women who adhere to traditional femininity in general such as Sansa, Alysanne and Catelyn while they dismiss independent female leaders such as Dany, Rhaenyra and Arianne.
Another reason why they love to argue that prophecies don’t matter and what matters is what you do is that their fave Sansa isn’t involved in ASOIAF’s magical plotline, so this is a convenient way to justify why they make her more important than GRRM ever intended her to be in their speculations. Because they’re in love with her character, they forget that this is a fictional story where protagonists do play a larger role than secondary characters in saving and rebuilding the world (see also how Queen Sansa theories are popular or how they expect Arya and Sansa to be ~equally important~ and end up as advisors to King Bran when, like Bran, Arya has also been set apart as a Main Character with capital letters), where nobles matter more than peasants (because it’s the nature of the genre), where Westeros matters more than Essos (because GRRM said so) and where, y'know, heroes and prophecies do matter. What changes is that, for once, an exiled former slave gets to empower other people, conquer cities and save the world. (And I’m sure that the other four major players will have large roles too, though I haven’t thought about their futures as much because, as I said, I’m a Dany stan with all the biases that that involves).
If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. I’m not trying to argue that my interpretation is the only valid one or that everything I say will definitely become canon. Sadly, a lot of people in this fandom act as if the big name fans’ interpretation is the only valid one because the big name fans themselves don’t listen and pretend to be unbiased.
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