Zemo's 5 minutes in episode 5 completed a surprisingly wholesome character arc from Civil War and to the TFATW series.
Even knowing that Bucky was under Hydra's control, Zemo believed him culpable and saw no issue with either T'Challa killing him in misdirected rage or Tony killing him in vengeance.
He has now spent 2 (or 7) years sitting in a German jail, reconsidering his life choices. He has read the files on the Red Skull and the failed Winter Soldier program, and possibly even the Hulk. The super soldier serum is the hubris of mankind trying to break the laws of nature, so therefore it stands to reason that these people lose their hold on humanity.
When Bucky reappears in front of him, he doesn't believe Bucky when he says those days are behind him.
He knows Bucky wouldn't have come to face him alone if his brainwashing hadn't been deprogrammed, but he says the words anyway just to get a reaction, then continues to aggravate him after they break out.
He insists on Bucky resuming the Winter Soldier identity, then smirks to Sam over how easily Bucky returns to aggression. He goads Bucky several times, almost as a test to see when he might lose control. To his disappointment, Bucky explodes but always stops short of actually harming him.
Whenever he talks about super soldiers being inevitably corrupted by the serum, he glances at Bucky as though to say "I know you're pretending to have it together, but you are just like the rest". When Bucky protests that some might survive the serum without becoming corrupt, he mocks, "But there has never been another Steve Rogers."
But as relentless as he is in his preaching towards Sam (and Bucky), he starts to waver. It began with Bucky's notebook: 2 lists of names, one with his own between Hydra names he knew from Black Widow's data dump. It's the other list that catches his eye.
"Who is Nakajima?" he asks, not recognising it. He realises from Bucky's reaction that it's just a regular guy whose name never made it to the headlines, an unfortunate and unnecessary victim caught in the wrong place at the wrong time.
The super soldier was remorseful, and carried his atonement in his pocket.
As he launches into another lecture about the existence of super soldiers after destroying the serum, Sam turns to him and questions his conviction.
For once, Zemo was rendered wordless. He was losing his conviction.
After he steals away, he waits, unarmed and unaccompanied, for Bucky in front of the Sokovian monument.
It was a gamble, but even he himself isn't sure what he is gambling on.
If Bucky came, was that a sign of his elite assassin tracking skills, or of the man's empathy in recalling Zemo's off-hand remark about the monument?
As though to prove a point, he goads Bucky one last time when he does come.
He is unsurprised when Bucky points his gun at him - after all, he did see his own name on Bucky's list. He smiles and nods encouragingly at Bucky.
He's won, because Bucky is exactly the man he had foretold.
All super soldiers will be corrupted.
You are programmed to kill.
The Winter Soldier is still in there.
But Bucky refuses to follow his script.
Zemo prides himself on his ability to read and manipulate his enemies. Even Steve Rogers, as close to flawless as that man might be, acted exactly as he forecasted in the confrontation with Tony.
T'Challa, and now Bucky, are the only ones to defy his predictions.
Sam had said, "Blood doesn't always have to be the solution," and Bucky showed him what that meant.
But it doesn't feel so bad to be wrong this time.
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