Guilty! Guilty, Guilty, Guilty!
Josh Has Finally Been Convicted… What Now?!
When Will Josh Be Sentenced?
If he’s out–of–custody pending sentencing, probably in ~90 Days (Early March); if he’s detained immediately, probably more like 75 Days (Mid– / Late February).
It’ll be a judge. Almost certainly the trial judge, Judge Timothy L. Brooks.
Why Does It Take So Long For Sentencing To Occur?
Because there’s quite few things that need to happen, beforehand.
First, the Federal Probation Officer will write their Pre–Sentence Report Report (PSR). The Report contains information for the judge to consider at sentencing, including—
Probation’s calculation of the Guideline Sentencing Range;
Any case– or Defendant–specific basis for a harsher or lighter sentence;
Information about the Defendant’s background, criminal history, mental health, physical health, etc.; and
Information on how the Defendant’s crimes impacted a victim, if any.
They gather this information by interviewing the Defendant, and reviewing the police report, RAP sheet, etc. (See Rule 32, Fed. Rules of Crim. Procedure.)
Both lawyers (Prosecution, Defense) will also write motions, arguing what they believe is an appropriate sentence under the Federal Sentencing Guidelines—basically, saying how the Guidelines should apply in this case given the facts, PSR, and victim impact.
Meanwhile, anyone affected by the Defendant’s crime can choose to testify at the Sentencing Hearing, or possibly submit written remarks to be read on their behalf. This is an opportunity for the victims(s) to speak out, basically without restriction, to share how they feel and how they want the sentencing to go.
After all this happens, there’s the Sentencing Hearing. (That’s the thing that’ll occur in 75–90 Days.) The lawyers make arguments, and ultimately the judge will decide what the sentence will be.
Will Josh Go To Prison? For How Long?
Yes, he will almost certainly go to prison for at least 5 Years. (By statute, the punishment for his offenses generally must be 5 Years, or more.)
He faces a maximum of 20 Years in prison, and a $250,000 fine.
As in every federal case, the Federal Sentencing Guidelines will be referenced extensively in determining Josh’s sentence. (Duggar Data explained all about the Guidelines a few days ago.) After consulting the Guidelines, Duggar Data thinks that—with an Offense Level of 35 / 36, and a Criminal History Category of 1—Josh may been looking at ~14 Years, possibly more.
Will Josh Actually Serve His Entire Sentence?
Pretty much. He will get ‘credit’ for the brief period of time he was in custody, back in April / Early May. He’ll get one day credit for every day or portion of a day he was in jail, which I believe was 7 Days, April 29–May 5. (See 18 U.S.C. 3585.) He almost certainly won’t be awarded credit for the ~7 Months that he spent on pre–trial house arrest (with the Rebers), since that doesn’t qualify as “official detention.” (See Reno v. Koray, 515 U.S. 50 (1995).) If he is detained pending sentencing, he would get day–for–day credit for that.
As for “good behavior” credits and whatnot… Unlike some states, the federal system doesn’t allow inmates to rack up loads of ‘good behavior’ credits. By law, federal inmates can shave some time off their sentence, but it’s capped at 54 Days / 365 Actual Days Served. So, if Josh received all of that bonus credit, he’d serve ~85% of his sentence. (That’d be ~17 Years on 20 Years, ~12 Years on 14 Years, or ~4.25 Years on 5 Years.) And, honestly… He probably will earn all the bonus credit, since any day that an inmate doesn’t get written up counts as ‘good behavior.’ You don’t have to be a rockstar, just not a troublemaker.
Will He Remain Out–of–Custody, Pending Sentencing?
Possibly. Section 3143 of the U.S. Code deals with this issue… Basically, if a Defendant is found guilty, the judge has to decide whether there is “clear and convincing evidence that the [Defendant] is unlikely to flee or pose a danger to … the community." If so, the judge “shall” (must) release the Defendant—with appropriate conditions, of course—until the Sentencing Hearing (~90 Days). If not, the judge "shall order that [the Defendant] … be detained.”
While I wouldn’t be shocked either way, I think there’s a chance that Josh will be released pending sentencing. The fact is: He has been out on conditional release, pending trial, and hasn’t violated the terms of that release. Based on that, I think it would be fair for Judge Brooks to conclude that Josh isn’t going to flee—if he wanted to flee, he would’ve by now—and that any danger to the community could be mitigated with conditions (e.g., no access to the Internet, no contact with minors, GPS monitoring). But, it could also go the other way; his crimes are obviously very serious.
Will Josh Be Required To Register As A Sex Offender?
Yes. By my reading of the federal law (34 U.S.C. et seq.), he’ll be required to register for 15 Years, maybe 10 Years if he agrees to therapy and specialized treatment for sex offenders. This time starts when he’s released from prison.
If Josh fails to register, or fails to keep his registration current, that’s a felony. He could go back to prison.
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