Apart from one AppleMusic exclusive clip where Taylor tells us which were the first & last songs written for the album, the only information any of us can go off on is chartered jets to Sweden and matching Taylor's nails from the Eras Doc clips to candids (a very tedious task, but I did my best!)
So, all of this to say, there's a lot of guess work being done here, but I think it's fun to try and place all the pieces of the Showgirl puzzle!
2024
July/August
In an AppleMusic excludive clip Taylor reveals "Elizabeth Taylor" was the first song written/made for the album.
Taylor wearing Team USA Summer Olympics merch.
Only song we can confirm from the Eras tour clips here is "Honey", but it's almost certain that there are other songs made during this period from there being multiple clips. (Through process of elimination, the only songs these other clips could be from are Elizabeth Taylor, Opalite, Father Figure, RTF, Actually Romantic, and TLOAS title track.)
Her nails are hard to see clearly, but they're definitely short and have a nude-ish color.
The period of time she had similar looking nails was:
a) from July 27th Munich shows until August 15th London shows (left), before these shows she was in Hamburg and had blue nails (right)
Additionally on August 4th Taylor is rumored to have gone to Sweden after the Poland shows. This same plane went Vienna-Stockholm after the shows were cancelled. Taylor did confirm that she got the announcement of the Vienna concerts being cancelled while on a plane. This is the least confirmed flight but matches up perfectly to me.
Less likely and matches the nails less is option b) August 20th (last London show, the other London shows she had pink nails with blue stars) until pre September 5th (her next sighting at the Chiefs v Raven game, because her nails are now clearly gold.)
September
September 7th - Out in NYC, last we see of her with short gold nails.
September 8th - US Open she has new nails, the first and the only time we see her with short red nails until after Christmas.
BTS of Showgirl sessions photo from Taylor's Instagram shows her with the same nails (notably wearing a tshirt and shorts, so more likely from late summer than Christmas.)
We don't know what she recorded in this photo, only that she definitely recorded something. (Through process of elimination, the only songs this could be are Opalite, Father Figure, RTF, Actually Romantic, and TLOAS title track.)
The last time she could have possibly had these nails is September 10th, because after that she has completely different ones.
September 11th (first seen) / September 21st (last seen) - the long black nails.
Sep 27th / Oct 4th - Taylor attends her second cousin's wedding then flies to Sweden right after. She returns to NY on the 4th.
This is most likely when she records "Eldest Daughter" & "Cancelled" (long brown nails, which I can't find her having in any candid photo. After this she has gold nails for months and before this we have regular photos of her with other nails.)
(top: photos of the recording session from Taylor's Instagram / bottom left: clip of Taylor recording Eldest Daughter / bottom right: close up to confirm she has the same brown nails in the second instagram photo)
(If you're wondering if the glitter freckles help the timeline in any way, I answered an ask about it here)
To confirm the second photo is of the recording of "Cancelled", on the bottom are Max and Shellback wearing the same clothes in a clip where we can hear them producing the song and where Taylor is singing the lyrics.
October 7th (first seen) - / November 1st Indianapolis Eras show (new nails) - Starry gold nails then much shorter darker starry gold nails (from what I can tell at least there is a difference.)
The October ones are the nails she has when she made "Wood".
(left: clip of her singing the song / right: clip where everyone's in the same clothes + close up of her nails)
Dec 14th / Dec 20th - Taylor in Sweden again. (Can't really see her nails)
This is when Taylor made "The Fate Of Ophelia" & "Wi$h Li$t".
(left: clip of them having a traditional swedish Christmas drink / right: clip of them playing The Fate of Ophelia)
In an AppleMusic excludive clip Taylor reveals "Wi$h Li$t" was the last song written/made for the album.
December 27th - Taylor is in NYC with short red nails.
✨️ Complications & Inconsistencies ✨️
Taylor said outright Elizabeth Taylor was made first. We have a highly suggestive flight pre London shows that is most likley when she recorded it, we know Honey nails only match this period too, and we have an early September recording session confirmed due to her red nails.
The issue is she said she was inspired to make this song by a clip she was sent by her parents of Elizabeth Taylor's son comparing the two. That clip/story came out September 23rd via The Guardian.
So, either there is another earlier clip in August that none of us have found yet, or the story is a small white lie Taylor told to maybe be granted permission to release the song from Elizabeth Taylor's family. That is **pure speculation** on my part, who knows. Either way, it's an inconsistency that bothers me.
Lastly, HUGE thank you to @taylor-on-your-dash for the assistance! Check out her blog where she has endless incredible songwriting timelines, interview timelines, etc, which I revisit almost daily 🫶
