my cat just came up and meowed very loudly and insistently and even nipped at my leg and when i was like "FINE" and got up to follow her she led me to the next room where a patch of sun was coming in. she wanted me to sit in the sun with her.
Susie sobbing and hyperventilating because tennas gone. Meanwhile Toriel sees it as Susie thinking she’ll be mad at her for accidentally breaking things. In an attempt to comfort her she says she’d “never be mad about something that she could just replace.” Susie starts shaking
hello my lovely friends! we are now entering into the beginning of 2026, aka the year in which chapter 5 of deltarune will release!! this means its time to dust out the old gimmick blogs and come up with some sort of bullshit percentage to increase daily.
last year it was easy. all we knew on january 1st 2025 was that the game was certainly coming out SOME DAY of the year. this made calculating the percentage as easy as simply giving equal odds to every day left in the year... (at least until the actual release date was given)
this year will be more complicated.
according to toby on SEPTEMBER 15th, HE "DOESN'T THINK" the game will be released in the first half of 2026.
HOWEVER...
on DECEMBER 18th, toby gave us THIS update:
he believes that it will take "SEVERAL MONTHS" to RELEASE the game from the time of writing, and that in "A FEW MONTHS" the team will be working on chapter 6. how do we square these two seemingly contradictory pieces of information...?
well, the obvious answer is that the more recent update is more accurate because he knows more about the release schedule now that the game is closer to coming out. i don't think we can entirely disregard the earlier estimate, though...
before we do anything, we need to convert these obviously rough linguistic approximations into some bullshit numbers we can turn into more bullshit percentages.
i have decided to compile a variety of authoritative opinions on the matter, starting of course with a reddit post.
the vast majority of people (four people) claim the amount is "three to six months," whereas EMCoupling states that it "tends to trend towards 3-4." kp33ze instead claims a maximum of 8 months.
balumed medical dictionary claims anywhere from 3 months to "less than a year," which to me feels overly long and frustratingly vague.
most people on quora seem annoyingly unwilling to give a hard estimate, but Jay B. Rant claims the term refers to "5 to 10 months," whereas John Welch states more than two, "probably" more than 3 or 4, and "not likely" more than 7 or 8. overall, quora users seem to estimate higher than redditors. what does this say about them?
totalling these results, we get...
this chart. and HONESTLY this seems like a pretty good estimate for what i would consider "several" as! but let's not forget that statement from september...
SEPTEMBER TOBY applies a 50% debuff to the "first half of 2026" dates!
i think these seem like pretty good bullshit-numbers to calculate the odds for... but man, that january and february stretch is completely empty now! that's a real bummer, if our countdown blog doesn't even give us any potential to get the game until march 1st. surely we can do better than that...
we employ THE POWER OF COPE HOPE to decrease the FAKENESS ATTRIBUTE of a january and february release date, granting them 0.1 ODDS.
at this point, i got a bit stuck, because i wanted to have the odds increase every day like they did last year, while having the amount they increase be weighted proportionally to these odds we just calculated. i asked my friend @zaneclodon to help me with the rest of the math, and they proposed weighing each of these numbers by the amount of days in the month:
january: 31 days each weighted at 0.1
february: 28 days each weighted at 0.1
march: 31 days each weighted at 3
april: 30 days each weighted at 3
may: 31 days each weighted at 4
june: 30 days each weighted at 4
july: 31 days each weighted at 3.5
august: 31 days each weighted at 3.5
september: 30 days each weighted at 2
october: 31 days each weighted at 2
november: 30 days each weighted at 1
december: irrelevant since weight is set at 0
this gives us a total denominator of 801.9, which we can subtract the relevant amount from each day just like we did from 365 last year! so day 1 would be 0.1/801.9, then day 2 is 0.1/801.8, and that pattern continues until march when it jumps to 3.
the last step is noticing that since it's a fraction we can just scale up to 1/8019 to make our calculations simpler.
with that, i can go ahead and queue our odds for the next few months! thanks for reading!
I'm honestly curious how the rest of the cast will react to jax pressing the red button. we don't get to see them properly react to it after all since they immediately got interrupted by caine. Will they just let it slide since the whole thing turned out to be fake anyway, or would they still confront him about it?
And if they do confront him, what would jax say? He could, and probably would say that he guessed about it being fake even though we all know that's not the real reason. I feel like there's no way he'll tell the truth, whether the truth being he truly didn't want to go back to the real world or caine manipulated his mind into pressing the button since both answer would require him to tell everyone about his real feelings (maybe he would tell them about being manipulated, but refuse to say anything when everyone asked for details)
Whatever his answer is, I don't think everyone will buy it that easily, pomni would probably hear him out but still question the truth of it
Anyways, the next episode would probably be about the cast doing detective work about how to get out now that they're starting to figure out about caine's shady acts, especially since kinger is showing signs of regaining his sanity and memory at the end
Something more casual now~ I started this as a regular old meme redraw but as always I went a bit overboard. Oh well, I got to draw the sillies at the festival!
I will try to post more casual animatics / sketches but I can’t promise that I won’t always go overboard.
Yapping about outfits under the cut~
I imagine Susie wears the exact same outfit but she ties her overtop/jacket round her waist to hide her tail since Noelle keeps pointing it out.
I suppose the festival is going to be Christmasy in some capacity or another, so I drew Noelle in one of the myriad of Christmas sweaters I know she has. And Noelle in a braid cuz she has to look cute for the date Susie has no idea she’s on to the festival~
In trying to figure out what Berdly would wear to the festival, some friends suggested that Berdly dressing up would wear a polo with a fake print tie (same green from his dw design) with Cargo shorts and I’m afraid its canon.
And Kris, like all my favorite characters, gets to wear one of my outfits. Plus they get a half up half down style cuz it looks good (totally not because I’ve been drawing deltanoir kris a lot)
turnnoffyourmind
jbbartram-illu
baratheonpilled
theartofmadeline
origamiaround
snowghoul
kianamaiart
stormborns
dededos
