Report: Ageing populations are good
A new opinion paper published in Trends in Ecology & Evolution argues that societies should embrace ageing populations instead of fearing them. The authors demonstrate multiple socio-economic and environmental benefits of shrinking, ageing populations and that associated costs are manageable. Promoting unchecked population growth as is currently the norm pushes humanity further and further away from achieving lasting societal and environmental good health.
The media often describes decreasing fertility rates as a “looming disaster” because of how they increase the proportion of elderly people within a population, potentially triggering an economic downturn. This pervasive narrative has had a significant effect on public opinion, with many people more concerned about demographic ageing than about the destructive effect of our rapidly growing population on our finite planet.
Currently, only 14% of countries have declining populations, including Japan, Estonia, and the Czech Republic but the UN estimates that this will increase to 32% of countries by 2050. Population decline is an “achievement, misdescribed as a problem“, according to the authors of the paper.
Concerns about the impacts of ageing can be grouped into three categories: worker shortages, expenditure on health services, and shortfalls in pension funding.
Reviewing the literature, the authors found no evidence that an older population leads to too few workers to meet employment demands. In fact, as evidenced by high-income countries, ageing is not related to the proportion of total population employed nor to changes in GDP per capita. In contrast, countries with the youngest populations as a result of high fertility rates often have very high youth unemployment and stagnating wages. The paper argues that people living in shrinking societies do better economically, socially, and environmentally than they would in a fast-growing country.
read the rest at population matters