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In the past two years, without much notice, solar power has begun to truly transform the worldâs energy system.
"People have been telling stories about renewable energy since the nineteen-seventies, when the first all-solar-powered house opened on the campus of the University of Delaware, drawing a hundred thousand visitors in 1973, its first year, to marvel at its early photovoltaic panels and its solar hot-water system, complete with salt tubs in the basement to store heat overnight. But, even though weâve got used to seeing solar panels and wind turbines across the landscape in the intervening fifty years, we continue to think of what they produce as âalternative energy,â a supplement to the fossil-fuelled power that has run Western economies for more than two centuries. In the past two years, however, with surprisingly little notice, renewable energy has suddenly become the obvious, mainstream, cost-efficient choice around the world. Against all the big bad things happening on the planet (and despite all the best efforts of the Republican-led Congress in recent weeks), this is a very big and hopeful thing, which a short catalogue of recent numbers demonstrates:
It took from the invention of the photovoltaic solar cell, in 1954, until 2022 for the world to install a terawatt of solar power; the second terawatt came just two years later [in 2024], and the third will arrive either later this year or early next [in 2025 or early 2026].
Thatâs because people are now putting up a gigawattâs worth of solar panels, the rough equivalent of the power generated by one coal-fired plant, every fifteen hours. Solar power is now growing faster than any power source in history, and it is closely followed by wind powerâwhich is really another form of energy from the sun, since it is differential heating of the earth that produces the wind that turns the turbines.
Last year, ninety-six per cent of the global demand for new electricity was met by renewables, and in the United States ninety-three per cent of new generating capacity came from solar, wind, and an ever-increasing variety of batteries to store that power.
In March, for the first time, fossil fuels generated less than half the electricity in the U.S. In California, at one point on May 25th, renewables were producing a record hundred and fifty-eight per cent of the stateâs power demand. Over the course of the entire day, they produced eighty-two per cent of the power in California, which, this spring, surpassed Japan to become the worldâs fourth-largest economy.
Meanwhile, battery-storage capability has increased seventy-six per cent, based on this yearâs projected estimates; at night, those batteries are often the main supplier of Californiaâs electricity. As the director of reliability analysis at the North American Electric Reliability Corporation put it, in the CleanTechnica newsletter, âbatteries can smooth out some of that variability from those times when the wind isnât blowing or the sun isnât shining.â As a result, California is so far using forty per cent less natural gas to generate electricity than it did in 2023, which is the single most hopeful statistic Iâve seen in four decades of writing about the climate crisis.
Texas is now installing renewable energy and batteries faster than California; in a single week in March, it set records for solar and wind production as well as for battery discharge. In May, when the state was hit by a near-record-breaking early-season heat wave, air-conditioners helped create a record demand on the grid, which didnât blinkâmore than a quarter of the power came from the sun and wind. Last weekâs flooding tragedy was a reminder of how vulnerable the state is to extreme weather, especially as water temperatures rise in the Gulf, producing more moisture in the air; in late June, the director of the stateâs utility system said that the chances of emergency outages had dropped from sixteen per cent last summer to less than one per cent this year, mostly because the state had added ten thousand megawatts of solar power and battery storage. That, he said, âputs us in a better position.â
All this is dwarfed by whatâs happening in China, which currently installs more than half the worldâs renewable energy and storage within its own borders, and exports most of the solar panels and batteries used by the rest of the world. In May, according to government records, China had installed a record ninety-three gigawatts of solar powerâamounting to a gigawatt every eight hours. The pace was apparently paying offâanalysts reported that, in the first quarter of the year, total carbon emissions in China had actually decreased; emissions linked to producing electricity fell nearly six per cent, as solar and wind have replaced coal. In 2024, almost half the automobiles sold in China, which is the worldâs largest car market, were full or hybrid electric vehicles. And Chinaâs prowess at producing cheap solar panels (and E.V.s) means that nations with which it has strong trading linksâin Asia, Africa, South Americaâare seeing their own surge of renewable power.
In South America, for example, where a decade ago there were plans to build fifteen new coal-fired power plants, as of this spring there are none. Thereâs better news yet from India, now the worldâs fastest-growing major economy and most populous nation, where data last month showed that from January through April a surge in solar production kept the countryâs coal use flat and also cut the amount of natural gas used during the same period in 2024 by a quarter. But even countries far from Beijing are making quick shifts. Polandâlong a leading coal-mining nationâsaw renewable power outstrip coal for electric generation in May, thanks to a remarkable surge in solar construction. In 2021, the country set a goal for photovoltaic power usage by 2030; it has already tripled that goal.
Over the past fifteen years, the Chinese became so skilled at building batteriesâfirst for cellphones, then cars, and now for entire electric systemsâthat the cost of energy storage has dropped ninety-five per cent. On July 7th, a round of bidding between battery companies to provide storage for Chinese utilities showed another thirty per cent drop in price. Grid-scale batteries have become so large that they can power whole cities for hours at a time; in 2025, the world will add eighty gigawatts of grid-scale storage, an eightfold increase from 2021. The U.S. alone put up four gigawatts of storage in the first half of 2024.
There are lots of other technologies vying to replace fossil fuels or to reduce climate damage: nuclear power, hydrogen power, carbon capture and storage; along with renewables, all were boosted by spending provisions in Bidenâs Inflation Reduction Act and will be hampered to varying degrees by congressional rollbacks. Some may prove useful in the long run and others illusory, but for now they are statistically swamped by the sheer amount of renewable power coming online. Globally, roughly a third more power is being generated from the sun this spring than last. If this exponential rate of growth can continue, we will soon live in a very different world.
All this suggests that there is a chance for a deep reordering of the earthâs power systems, in every sense of the word âpower,â offering a plausible check to not only the climate crisis but to autocracy. Instead of relying on scattered deposits of fossil fuelâthe control of which has largely defined geopolitics for more than a centuryâwe are moving rapidly toward a reliance on diffuse but ubiquitous sources of supply. The sun and the wind are available everywhere, and they complement each other well; when sunlight diminishes in the northern latitudes at the approach of winter, the winds pick up. This energy is impossible to hoard and difficult to fight wars over. If youâre interested in abundance, the sun beams tens of thousands of times more energy at the earth than we currently need. Paradigm shifts like this donât come along often: the Industrial Revolution, the computer revolution. But, when they do, they change the world in profound and unpredictable ways...
In retrospect, itâs reasonably easy to see how fast solar and wind power were coming. But, blinkered by the status quo, almost no one actually predicted it. In 2009, the International Energy Agency predicted that we would hit two hundred and forty-four gigawatts of solar capacity by 2030; we hit it by 2015. For most of the past decade, the I.E.A.âs five-year forecasts missed [underestimated the amount of renewables] by an average of two hundred and thirty-five per cent. The only group that came even remotely close to getting it right was not J. P. Morgan Chase or Dow Jones or BlackRock. It was Greenpeace, which estimated in 2009 that weâd hit nine hundred and twenty-one total gigawatts by 2030. We were more than fifty per cent above that by 2023. Last summer, Jenny Chase, who has been tracking the economics of solar power for more than two decades for Bloomberg, told the Times, âIf youâd told me nearly 20 years ago what would be the case now, 20 years later, I would have just said you were crazy. I would have laughed in your face. There is genuinely a revolution happening.â
-via The New Yorker, July 9, 2025
Finland's sand battery stores renewable energy as heat using crushed soapstone, helping one town slash emissions and eliminate oil from its
From the article:
In a small Finnish town with a big climate goal, an unassuming tower of sand is quietly storing solar and wind energy all while making a powerful statement about clean tech innovation. Pornainen, in southern Finland, is now home to the worldâs largest sand battery: a 13-metre-high, 15-metre-wide thermal storage system built by Finnish company Polar Night Energy. Capable of holding 100 megawatt-hours (MWh) of heat, the new battery will slash emissions from the townâs district heating network by nearly 70 percent and phase out the use of oil. âOur goal is to be climate neutral by 2035, and the sand battery is a major step toward that,â says Mikko Paajanen, CEO of Loviisan LĂ€mpö, which operates the heating system. With its large-scale rollout, the battery is now the networkâs main energy provider. Wood chip use is expected to drop by 60 percent, while an existing biomass boiler will offer backup during energy demand spikes.
Demand destruction vs fuel-superseding infrastructure
Iâm coming to GUELPH, ONTARIO THIS FRIDAY (May 8) to deliver the Musagetes Lecture.
No one is better at keeping hope alive than Rebecca Solnit, the historian and essayist whose Hope in the Dark got me through the first Trump administration and whose A Paradise Built In Hell inspired my novel Walkaway:
https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/301070/a-paradise-built-in-hell-by-rebecca-solnit/
In her latest, "Truth, Consequences, Climate, and Demand Destruction," Solnit is nothing short of inspirational â not because she downplays the horror and misery of Trump and his war of choice in Iran, but because she tells us what we stand to salvage from the wreckage:
https://www.meditationsinanemergency.com/truth-consequences-climate-and-demand-destruction/
Solnit starts by explaining some of the (many, many) things that Trump doesn't understand. Principally, Trump doesn't understand the concept of "demand destruction," which is what happens when shortages prompt people to make durable, one-way changes in their behavior that permanently reduce the demand for fossil fuels.
High prices sometimes create demand destruction: for example, if a transient shortage in eggs pushes prices up, people might discover that they prefer tofu scrambles in the morning, so even when the price of eggs comes back down, they buy two dozen fewer eggs every month, forever.
Beyond high prices, shortages and rationing are far more likely to lead to demand destruction. In the 10 years following the 1970s oil crisis, US cars doubled in fuel efficiency, and the gas-guzzler didn't return until car manufacturers exploited the American "light truck" loophole to fill the streets with deadly SUVs:
https://medium.com/vision-zero-cities-journal/the-chicken-tax-and-other-ways-the-u-s-government-subsidizes-your-ford-f-150-444a5164c627
But to really max out on demand destruction, you need both rationing and a cheap, easily installed substitute, and that's what the Strait of Epstein crisis, along with solar and batteries, offers the world today. Solar is incredibly cheap, and getting cheaper every day. Batteries are also incredibly cheap, and they're getting cheaper too. For decades, fossil fuel apologists have insisted that we'll never stop setting old dead shit on fire because "the sun doesn't always shine and the wind doesn't always blow," but thanks to battery deployment in China and California (and more places very soon), the sun shines all night long:
https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/Global-Electricity-Review-2026.pdf?ref=meditationsinanemergency.com
In starting this stupid, unforgivable war, Trump has vastly accelerated the process of demand destruction. Rather than buying American oil, the whole world has undertaken a simultaneous, rapid, irreversible shift to electrical substitutes for fossil fuel applications, from induction tops to balcony solar to ebikes and EVs:
https://thepolycrisis.org/01-demand-destruction-us-oil-is-not-winning-the-iran-war/
As Solnit writes, Trump's stupid war follows on the heels of another unforgivable and cruel blunder: Putin's quagmire in Ukraine, which catapulted Europe into the Gretacene, with a wholesale, continent-wide shift away from fossil fuels to renewables and the devices they power. Now, the rest of the world is following suit. In South Korea, President Lee Jae Myung is leading the charge to transition the country to renewables, framing fossil fuels as an existential geopolitical risk.
Panasonic 黿± èłœè»ć„łéçŻ alkaline battery TV commercial China 2000 (x)
When you're on a sortie and mention how sweet your lancemate is for getting you a battery.
So your Dragon Wife starts hoarding batteries to present to you when you complete your mission.
- She got me a battery! That's so sweet of her!
- A battery huh?
[some time later]
- I got you batteries!!
- :o