#climate migration

[rjzimmerman]

A nation on the move

As extreme weather events increase from warming weather due to climate change, people across the U.S. and the world are being forced to leav

Excerpt from this story from the Environmental Defense Fund/Vital Signs:

Across the U.S. and around the world, more people are leaving their homes as a warming climate drives more frequent floods, storms, wildfires and droughts. Disasters forced more than 26 million people in 148 nations away from their homes in 2023 and could displace 1.2 billion by 2050.  

In the U.S. and elsewhere, the vast majority of climate migrants move within their own country. But even this domestic migration is reshaping American communities.

About 2.5 million people had to leave their homes in the United States because of weather-related disasters in 2023, according to the latest census data. And for some of those who can move by choice, climate change is playing a growing role in their decisions, with buyers prioritizing climate resilience as much as schools, ocean views and urban conveniences.   

Climate risks like these will drive an estimated 5 million Americans to relocate this year, according to a recent study by financial research firm First Street, with more than 55 million expected to migrate in response to climate risks within the next three decades. 

It’s not just the climate-driven weather that is forcing migration — it’s the cost of staying put. In 2024, there were 27 weather and climate disasters that resulted in at least $1 billion in damages. Because of losses like these, the cost of home insurance is skyrocketing in high-risk areas. Since 2019, average premiums have jumped 31%, with even sharper increases in disaster-prone states like Florida and California.

Demographers predict that these once-booming regions will see significant population declines by midcentury. For example, by 2050, flooding events in Florida are expected to occur more than ten times as often as they do today, putting 2.4 million residents living within four feet of the high tide line at risk of displacement and forced migration. 

California residents face ever-increasing risks from flooding, as well as droughts and wildfires. Paul and Allisa Zimmerman lived in Calabasas, a Los Angeles suburb, for 27 years, raising two children. “Over the past few years, the fires just kept getting closer,” Paul Zimmerman recalls. “We had to evacuate three times. We had a go-bag and we’d perfected a system where we could get away in a few minutes.” 

For decades, artificially low insurance premiums allowed people to live more cheaply in high-risk areas, masking the true cost of climate exposure. A mix of regulatory and consumer pressures kept insurance prices low and property values afloat, helping to prevent a mass exodus from these areas. Now, as insurers hike rates to reflect higher climate risks and higher rebuilding costs, home insurance premiums are soaring nationwide — particularly in places where wildfires, hurricanes and floods are becoming more frequent.  

For the past few years, cities like Duluth, Minnesota and Asheville, North Carolina have been drawing increasing numbers of migrants who see them as climate havens. But even these so-called safe zones are not immune to disaster.  

Many considered the Pacific Northwest a climate haven until the 2021 heat dome, which caused more than 250 deaths in the U.S. and 400 in Canada. Hawaii was often thought to be a safe bet until the deadly fires on Maui in 2023. In Vermont, home to six of the 10 U.S. counties considered least vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, unprecedented flooding devastated river valleys in 2023.

In the meantime, moving out of harm’s way isn’t a solution that everyone can afford. Research suggests that those left behind — particularly in the southern U.S. — will be older, less wealthy and more vulnerable to extreme weather, making recovery even harder. This underscores the urgent need to strengthen communities' ability to withstand and recover from climate-related threats. 

“By upgrading infrastructure to withstand floods and investing in decentralized power grids that prevent widespread outages, we can enable people to stay in their homes safely and sustainably,” says Cohen.  

Across the U.S., states and communities are taking action to build resilience against climate disasters. The Biden-era Bipartisan Infrastructure Law is funding projects to reduce flooding risks and strengthen the power grid, while California invests in grid upgrades and energy storage technologies to prevent wildfires and ensure power during emergencies.  

[saddayfordemocracy]

"Searching Water Between The Palms"

Skander Khlif Photography

[tomorrowusa]

One book I’d like to read before the year is over is The Great Displacement: Climate Change and the Next American Migration by Jake Bittle.

He appeared in this podcast episode with FiveThirtyEight’s Galen Druke.

Climate change has already been the cause of some internal migration inside the US. We should expect that to accelerate as the century progresses. It will be almost the reverse of the late 20th/early 21st century migration to the sunbelt and coastal areas. 

While no part of the US is completely immune to the effects of climate change, the Great Lakes region and Upper Midwest are likely to fare somewhat better than other parts of the country.

Cities in the Great Lakes area are already beginning to think through the effects of a surging population.

Except for the New Madrid fault in southeastern Missouri, the Midwest is not subject to major earthquakes; volcanoes and tsunamis are unknown there.  Once people around the US rethink the overall benefits of living in the region, sustainable growth may become one of the most acute issues in the area. 

[absurdlakefront]

America’s Climate Boomtowns Are Waiting

Rising temperatures could push millions of people north.

Imagine the economic center of gravity of the United States shifting north, and the seesaw effects of that change on the geographic locus of American society. Consider again the lasting cultural implications—for music and arts and sports and labor—of the previous century’s Great Migration out of the South, and what doubling it could mean. One day, a high-speed rail line may race across the Dakotas, through Idaho’s up-and-coming wine country and the country’s new bread basket, to the megalopolis of Seattle, which will have grown so big as people move north that it has nearly merged with Vancouver, at the southern edge of Canada. Never mind that roughly half the country will likely have to experience total upheaval or extreme discomfort—or both—to arrive at this point, or the fact that by the time the Great Lakes region reaches its apex, much of the nation’s southern half will have withered. And of course, every place in America will experience dramatic change and disruption from warming—just look at Canada’s wildfires last summer. But the northern part of the U.S. is more shielded from the primary threats of sea-level rise, hurricanes, drought, and extreme heat. The vision amounts to what Beth Gibbons describes as a chance to shift the climate narrative away from one of exclusive failure. And it suggests that the displacement erupting from climate stress in some places will put others on track toward greater security, wealth, and prosperity.

[queerbrownvegan]

Migration is also a climate solution - Truth on Borders

If you are serious about tackling climate change, you must also defend our right to migrate, by Isaias Hernandez and Stephanie Teatro 

The climate crisis is getting worse and people worldwide will be forced to leave their homes. No matter where people are migrating from, they should be able to move safely & with dignity.

That's why migration is a climate solution.

-qbv

[mostlyclimatechangeweatherlog]

[wewantclimateactionnow]

Are We Thinking About Climate Migration All Wrong?

Apocalyptic predictions may grab our attention, but they can also stoke xenophobia and miss the full picture of what’s happening on the grou

This article doesn't avoid discussing managing forced migrations and suggests that there may be positives for the host nations.

[solarpunkwitchcraft]

The Case for Climate Reparations

The world’s poorest will bear the worst consequences of the climate crisis. Redirecting international resources to address entrenched inequalities provides a way out.

“The great climate migration that will transform the world is just beginning. To adapt, the international community will need a different approach to politics. There are two ways forward: climate reparations or climate colonialism. Reparations would use international resources to address inequalities caused or exacerbated by the climate crisis; it would allow for a way out of the climate catastrophe by tackling both mitigation and migration. The climate colonialism alternative, on the other hand, would mean the survival of the wealthiest and devastation for the world’s most vulnerable people.”