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2025 / 10

Aperçu of the week

"Donald. You're a very smart guy. This is a very dumb thing to do."

(Departing Canadian Prim Minister Justin Trudeau to Donald Trump on him starting a trade war)

Bad News of the Week

Next year's World Cup will take place across North America. In addition to the USA, Mexico and Canada will also be hosting the games. And why not? After all, these three countries are not only closely intertwined economically - such as the USMCA trade agreement pushed through by Trump - but are also good neighbors. There are well-established, almost friendly ties with the US neighbor to the north in particular, and the two have not seen eye to eye for decades. But now the USA has declared war.

Trump already made some strange geopolitical statements during the election campaign. He wanted to repeat the Panama Canal. To annex Greenland, which is essential for national security, if necessary. And use “economic force” to get Canada to join the USA as the 51st state. And the first weeks of Trump's second presidency - yes, it hasn't even been eight weeks since the fraudulent dealmaker has been back in the White House, even if it feels much longer - show that this was not campaign bluster that has nothing to do with day-to-day political reality. No: Trump means everything he says exactly as he says it. He means it seriously.

At least in this one moment. Because the next day, what he means may have changed fundamentally. And then it becomes (new) facts - often also “alternative facts”. That's what makes this infernal duo of Trump and multifunctional jack-of-all-trades Elon Musk so dangerous: they shoot from the hip without thinking twice. And then row back just as quickly. Like with their waves of redundancies in the public sector. Who cares? Everyone!

It's astonishing that two people who consider themselves business geniuses are making sure that small money and big money are worth less at the same time. Small money, because inflation and prices for everyday necessities and food have not only not gone down, but are being driven up by import duties. And the big money, because the financial markets and internationally active corporations and investors value reliability and solid framework conditions and not unforeseeability and unpredictability.

If an autocratic despot in some landlocked African country does something economically stupid at the expense of his people, it is his unfortunate people who suffer as a result. When this happens in the United States of America, the global leader in so many respects, it is the entire globalized world that suffers. It is no consolation that the Billionaires Boyband around Trump, of all people, is probably rubbing its eyes. Of all people, the two richest men in the world Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, for whom literally not even the sky seemed to be the limit, are currently experiencing a considerable decline in their wealth. Perhaps this will even result in a strange alliance for better times, who knows. After all, there are obviously no longer any certainties.

Good News of the Week

Just the other day I wrote that Europe would be well advised to wake up. Before the American dream of the post-war era turns into a nightmare after the current turning point in international relations. And there is indeed movement in this continent, which otherwise likes to be sluggish and static. This is due to the fact that there is not only a separation of powers between the executive, legislative and judiciary, but also a multi-level political system has been established.

In which the European level decides what the national level has to decide, which decides what the individual federal states, regions, countries or communities decide. These, in turn, are organized in several levels downwards - in Germany, for example, into administrative districts, then into counties and finally into municipalities, some of which are subdivided into towns or precincts. Yes, that sounds like organizational madness. Because you have to master it first. Which in any case always costs two things: Money and time.

After the start of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, the Europeans had to act to create alternatives to Russian natural gas, which had previously been the main source of energy. They did so quickly and pragmatically. And they also threw ideological baggage overboard in the process. The images of a green minister for the economy and climate traveling to Qatar to negotiate liquefied natural gas supplies on behalf of Germany, for example, are unforgettable. Because sometimes you just have to do what you have to do.

And the same seems to be happening now with the issue of armaments. Yes, we were all happy about the end of the Cold War with its insane arms race. And yes, we all want to live in peace and without weapons. But as long as there is a bully on a playground, you have to put him in his place before he terrorizes all the other children. And to do that, you have to be stronger than him. Because then it should be enough to look angry and rattle your sabre so that it doesn't even come to a fight.

In this respect, it is good that Europe and its political leadership have apparently understood that we have to stand up to Vladimir Putin and not rely on Donald Trump. 800 billion euros - and a euro is still worth more than a dollar - is what the major European nations now want to spend in order to become militarily independent. At the same time, they have recognized that they should be technologically compatible with each other and not be dependent on the USA as a supplier. The United Kingdom is also involved, even though it is no longer a member of the European Union. Yes, we in Europe are sticking together. And it makes me incredibly sad that this is no longer the case in North America.

Personal happy moment of the week

Last week, my son left his backpack on a train. To be fair, I have to say that both me and his sister were with him. He was arguing with her at the time of the train change - so he was distracted. Nevertheless, it was of course a big bummer. Especially because his glasses were in his rucksack. Which, on the one hand, he needed and, on the other, weren't exactly cheap. Fortunately, an honest finder handed the luggage in to a police station. And a helpful policeman (who, amusingly, has the same first name as my son) successfully investigated: there was also a physics book in there. In which the school was noted. Which he contacted. At the third appointment at the second lost and found office, there was a happy ending. Thank you!

I couldn't care less...

...that Donald Jessica Trump - my wife stumbled across a nickname today that I think is great: “Mango Mussolini” - is not only cutting funding to the University of Columbia, but is also taking an axe to the tree of science in general. Because I very much agree with what could then happen: an exodus of bright minds to Europe. An intercontinental brain drain. Because scientists often don't care much about politics. Because they are interested in real facts. Which is something you can't really say about Washington DC right now.

It's fine with me...

...that the Danish postal service has stopped delivering letters. Good, that makes sense. Even in this country, I don't think the traditional delivery of a physical letter is very relevant anymore. Let's be honest: letters are bullshit. They take up to five days to reach us. And usually in a negative sense: as a reminder for an invoice that we have overlooked. As a notification from an authority that we don't actually want to receive. Or as cheap advertising that ends up in the paper recycling anyway. Please leave me alone with this spam in paper form!

As I write this...

...I realize that I somehow missed a good old friend this year: Oscar. The Academy Awards completely passed me by. Maybe because I find Conan O'Brien significantly less funny than Jimmy Kimmel. That wouldn't matter to me. But maybe also because I have no idea what's relevant in the movie industry right now. That would matter to me. I need to talk to my wife - because she's from North America and she's also a cinephile. Because otherwise I'm missing out.

Post Scriptum

There finally seems to be hope for an end to the war in Ukraine. Unfortunately only as a compromise, which will probably cost Ukraine the parts of the country that Russia is occupying. But since the USA wants a dictated peace for its own interests - from the potential savings in military aid to the president's personal affection for Putin - and can probably enforce it, the Ukrainian leadership really has no other choice. Because the only alternative would be an ongoing war of attrition with fewer resources.

A statement by the responsible US special envoy Keith Kellogg, who justified the suspension of American arms and ammunition deliveries by forcing the Ukrainian leadership to the negotiating table, is emblematic of this. “The best way I can describe it is sort of like hitting a mule with a two-by-four across the nose: You got their attention.” It's strange how a (former?) partner acts like a hegemon and ignorantly withdraws at the very same time.