#marketcycles

[jeffhirsch]

Trump Presidency Seasonal Cycle Pattern: Q1 Shock. Q2-Q4 Awe.

Is this another Trump TACO Trade Spring Bottom?

Dow Futures up 1,200+ points on Iran deal news this morning. VIX over 30 at the open. And one of the classic TACO trades in recent memory — the 5th biggest 5-minute bar of all time.

Five Trump presidency years — 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2025 — same pattern every time: Q1 turbulence, Q2 bottom, then a sustained rally into year-end.

Art of the Deal, seasonal edition.

[unpluggedfinancial]

The Psychology of HODL: Why Bitcoiners Hold Through Market Cycles

The Ultimate Test of Conviction

In 2011, a single Bitcoin was worth less than a dollar. In 2017, it hit $20,000. By 2022, it had crashed below $16,000—only to roar back past $60,000 in 2024. The world has called Bitcoin dead over 470 times, but the believers? They never wavered. They HODLed. Why? Because Bitcoin isn’t just an asset—it’s a mindset. And understanding that mindset is the key to understanding the future.

The Birth of HODL: More Than Just a Meme

The term "HODL" originated from a legendary 2013 Bitcointalk forum post titled "I AM HODLING." It was a drunken typo that turned into a movement. But HODLing is more than just internet slang—it’s an ethos, a declaration of defiance against the financial system. It represents the philosophy of long-term conviction in a world obsessed with short-term gains.

Traders chase quick profits, institutions time the market, but true Bitcoiners? They accumulate and hold. Why? Because they understand that Bitcoin isn't a get-rich-quick scheme; it's a get-free-slowly revolution.

The Cultural Phenomenon of HODLing

HODLers aren’t just investors—they’re part of a global movement. The Bitcoin community reinforces its ideology through memes, mantras, and unwavering support. Social signaling plays a massive role in the HODL culture. Terms like "diamond hands" vs. "paper hands" define who can endure market downturns and who panics under pressure. The camaraderie strengthens conviction, creating a collective belief that Bitcoin’s future value will overshadow any temporary volatility.

The Economic Logic: Why HODLing Makes Sense

Scarcity & the 21M Cap

Bitcoin’s finite supply of 21 million coins is hardcoded scarcity. Every halving event reduces the rate of new supply entering the market, making Bitcoin inherently deflationary. Unlike fiat currencies, which can be endlessly printed, Bitcoin’s scarcity ensures that long-term holders are rewarded.

Stock-to-Flow & The Digital Gold Thesis

Bitcoin’s scarcity gives it a predictable issuance schedule, much like gold. The stock-to-flow model suggests that as scarcity increases, so does value. Those who HODL through the cycles understand this dynamic and accumulate in anticipation of future scarcity-driven price increases.

Volatility as a Feature, Not a Bug

Newcomers panic when Bitcoin crashes. Veterans see it as an opportunity. The volatility is not a weakness; it’s a mechanism that transfers wealth from the impatient to the patient. Every dip is a stress test—weak hands sell, strong hands accumulate.

The Psychology of HODL: What Keeps People Holding?

Loss Aversion

The fear of losing potential future gains often keeps investors from selling. Many who sold early watched Bitcoin soar and vowed never to make that mistake again.

Sunk Cost Fallacy

The deeper the investment, the harder it is to let go. People who have held Bitcoin for years develop an emotional attachment, reinforcing their commitment.

Confirmation Bias

Bitcoiners surround themselves with reinforcing narratives, filtering out anti-Bitcoin sentiments. This strengthens conviction, even when the market is down.

Delayed Gratification & Low Time Preference

Bitcoiners adopt a low time preference—valuing long-term gains over immediate rewards. This psychological shift allows them to endure short-term losses in pursuit of long-term wealth.

Market Cycles & The Emotional Rollercoaster of HODLing

Bitcoin’s price moves in four-year cycles, driven by the halving events. Each cycle follows a predictable pattern: euphoria, crash, despair, accumulation, and a new all-time high. Understanding these cycles separates HODLers from FOMO-driven speculators.

FOMO & Euphoria: When Bitcoin pumps, the masses rush in, pushing prices higher.

Capitulation: When crashes occur, weak hands sell in panic.

Accumulation: The patient and the wise accumulate cheap Bitcoin while the market loses interest.

Repeat: The cycle starts again, rewarding those who understood the game.

The Future of HODLing: Will It Always Be This Way?

As institutional adoption grows, will HODLing still be necessary? Will Bitcoin’s volatility subside, or will new waves of retail investors continue the cycle? While the future remains uncertain, one truth remains: those who have held through the chaos have reaped the rewards.

💎 Why We HODL

HODLing isn’t just about making money—it’s about rejecting a broken system. It’s about believing in a future where money is sound, where power shifts from central banks to individuals. To HODL is to understand that the road to financial revolution is paved with volatility, but the reward at the end is sovereignty.

The question isn’t whether Bitcoin will survive. The question is: Will you have the conviction to hold through the chaos and come out on the other side?

Tick. Tock. Next Block.

Take Action Towards Financial Independence

If this article has sparked your interest in the transformative potential of Bitcoin, there’s so much more to explore! Dive deeper into the world of financial independence and revolutionize your understanding of money by following my blog and subscribing to my YouTube channel.

🌐 Blog: Unplugged Financial Blog Stay updated with insightful articles, detailed analyses, and practical advice on navigating the evolving financial landscape. Learn about the history of money, the flaws in our current financial systems, and how Bitcoin can offer a path to a more secure and independent financial future.

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👍 Like, subscribe, and hit the notification bell to stay updated with our latest content. Whether you’re a seasoned investor, a curious newcomer, or someone concerned about the future of your financial health, our community is here to support you on your journey to financial independence.

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[jeffhirsch]

Trump Seasonal Cycle, NASDAQ Style

Back in March we identified the Trump Presidency Seasonal Cycle, and 2026 continues to track the pattern closely:  rough Q1, targets get slashed, the Street panics, Trump reverses course and big rally ensues over for the rest of the year.

We’re seeing it with NASDAQ as well. June’s selloff and the “Christmas in July” Midyear Rally has brought 2026 back in line with the Trump Presidency Cycle.

Seasonality weakens after mid-July so expect another pullback and some sideways action over the August/September timeframe as the market digests incoming economic data and latest geopolitical and midterm election headlines.

[jasonrgermanyps]

Crypto Crashes: Survive the 80% Drops! #BLOX #shorts

Crypto markets endure major cycles, with drops of 80%+ from all-time highs being common. Understand the volatility and cycles to navigate these drawdowns and aim for future new highs. #CryptoInvesting #MarketCycles #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Altcoins from Simply Money https://www.youtube.com/shorts/2ylUKYtZTNw from Simply Money https://ift.tt/G5akzTc

[capitalstreetfx3]

The Fifth Wave — When Three Revolutions Arrive at Once

Space. AI. Quantum. This has happened before. Not with these technologies — but with this exact combination: a real revolution meeting a pri

Markets may be approaching a critical turning point as extreme valuations, record-high market concentration, and growing enthusiasm around AI, space, and quantum technologies echo patterns seen before major historical corrections. This Capital Street FX special report examines 389 years of market cycles, highlighting how transformative innovations often experience periods of speculation, sharp declines, and eventual long-term dominance. By analyzing valuation metrics, past technology booms, and emerging opportunities, the report explores where markets stand today and how investors can position for both near-term risks and future growth. Read the full analysis on: Capital Street FX - Daily Blog

[kannansakthi]

The Bitcoin cycle is not just about price. It’s about human behavior repeating itself. Every cycle looks different on the surface. But underneath, the pattern is the same: Hype → Crash → Accumulation In the hype phase, everyone believes: “This time is different.” 1/6

Prices go up. Confidence goes up. Risk is ignored. Then comes the crash. Fear replaces greed. Narratives collapse. Weak hands exit. And finally, accumulation. No noise. No hype. Just quiet positioning by those who understand the cycle. 2/6

This has happened across multiple phases of : 2013 2017 2021 Different triggers. Same psychology. Yes, fundamentals matter: • Fixed supply (21 million) • Increasing adoption • Institutional interest But in the short term, markets are not driven by logic. 3/6

They are driven by: • Emotion • Liquidity • Narratives That’s why volatility exists. And that’s why most people enter at the wrong time. Not because they lack information. But because they follow crowd behavior. 4/6

The real edge in crypto is not predicting the next pump. It’s understanding where we are in the cycle. Because the market rewards: Discipline in hype Patience in accumulation Clarity during chaos So the real question is: Are you reacting to the market… 5/6

or understanding it? #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #Web3 #MarketCycles #Investing 6/6

[dreamfundsin]

Market Volatility and Opportunity

Every market fall creates uncertainty, but it can also open doors for long-term investors.

History shows that disciplined investors who stay focused on their long-term strategy often benefit from market recoveries.

Rather than reacting emotionally, focus on a structured investment approach.

Think investments. Think decades.

📞 Contact: [phone] 🌐 www.dreamfunds.in

Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks. Read all scheme related documents carefully.

[pfh-markets]

Understanding Crypto Market Cycles

Cryptocurrency markets move in repeating cycles driven by investor psychology, liquidity shifts, and macroeconomic trends. These cycles typically include accumulation, expansion, distribution, and correction phases. Recognizing these stages can help traders avoid emotional decisions and improve timing.

During accumulation, experienced investors quietly build positions while market sentiment remains low. As confidence returns, prices rise rapidly during the expansion phase. Eventually, distribution begins when early participants take profits, often followed by a correction or bearish trend.

Understanding these patterns helps traders manage risk, protect capital, and plan entries and exits more strategically. Instead of chasing hype or panic selling, structured planning leads to better long-term results.

If you want a detailed breakdown of each phase and practical trading insights, read more here