I still fail to see how the current House of the Hearth is any different from the Shuumatsuban. They both gather young orphans to brainwash them into loyalty, train them to become child soldiers, and send them on missions where they can possibly die. Where's the difference?
[2.5] The Kamisatos, Scaramouche, and the Rather Aged Notes: A Theory
You may be surprised to know that Scaramouche has more to do with the Kamisatos than you’d suspect. Here, I'll propose a naku weed theory about something I noticed in the Rather Aged Notes, a series of objects that have glimpses of Scaramouche's past on Tatarasuna, and what it may have to do with Kamisato Ayato and Kamisato Ayaka. This post contains no leaks.
SPOILERS: Omnipresence Over Mortals, The Very Special Fortune Slip [minor], Sayu's Hangout Event [minor], Husk of Opulent Dreams lore, Ayaka's character stories and voicelines, and Yae Miko's character story 5.
DISCLAIMER: I like all of the characters mentioned here. This is not an "Ayato sus" post, just some wild speculation. Very excited to learn more about the "Yashiro rascal" in a couple of weeks :)
[EDIT: as of Irodori, this theory is DEBUNKED. The answer (ayato is looking into scaramouche) was right, but my math (ayato raided the rather aged notes through the Shuumatsuban) was wrong. My original suspicion is more likely to be correct: Scaramouche raided the Rather Aged Notes, because he needed to conceal something about his past. (This was wrong too! It was actually raided by Sumeru researchers!) Thank you for the support on this post, feel free to still read but wanted to clarify this is now out-dated!]
This post is adapted from a twitter thread I made a couple of months ago, posted here. It is largely the same, but will include Yae Miko's lore as supporting evidence, which was not available at the time of my writing the original.
I also want to plug some other threads that had great analysis of this question as well: bloo's thread, vivi/ryan's thread, and julie's thread. Bloo establishes a clear timeline among many other analyses, while vivi/ryan analyzes Childe's involvement in version 2.2 and the official art featuring him with Thoma. Julie proposes an interesting theory for why Scaramouche may have targeted the Raiden Gokaden following the events of Tatarasuna.
Alright, let's get to it.
The Wandering Eccentric
In Tatarasuna, there are a series of notes that can be found throughout the island called the "Rather Aged Notes." These were identified some time ago as key pieces of Scaramouche's past, giving a scattered account of his time with Mikoshi Nagamasa, Sir Katsuragi, Nozomu, Miyazaki, and Kinjiro.
"...Also, Sir Katsuragi discovered a nameless eccentric while patrolling around Nazuchi Beach..."
Scaramouche is the "wandering eccentric" the notes are referring to. The Plume of Luxury from the Husk of Opulent Dreams set gives more information about what was happening at Tatarasuna when Scaramouche stayed there:
The long-wandering eccentric no longer thinks about this,
But when he closes his eyes, he can still see the moonlit nights over Tatarasuna and the burning furnace flames.
The kind young deputy [presumably Katsuragi] said:
"This gold ornament is a proof of identity granted by the Almighty Shogun,"
"But as you travel the world, please bear this in mind,"
"Never to reveal your identity to others."
The upright Inspector [presumably Nagamasa] said:
"This gold ornament may be a proof of identity granted by the Almighty Shogun,"
"But you are neither man nor mechanism,"
"And so I can only deal with you in this fashion. Do not hold this against me!"
The wanderer who has left yesterday in the dust no longer thinks about it,
But when he covers his ears, he can still hear the wild winds that roared that year.
A pair of expectant eyes said:
"This gold ornament is a proof of identity granted by the Almighty Shogun,"
"It must surely be able to save the people."
The intelligent, lovely shrine maiden [presumably Yae Miko] said:
"This gold ornament is a proof of identity granted by the Almighty Shogun,"
"And she will not abandon you."
"As for me, I shall do my best to send for help immediately..."
...But in the end, the golden arrow-feather were covered in dust,
And all tales were incinerated in karmic flames till nothing remained.
The only clear "end" to this story for the moment is the slaying of Sir Katsuragi by Mikoshi Nagamasa, which is how the craftable Katsuragikiri Nagamasa claymore obtained its name.
Presumably after this, Scaramouche began scheming against the five branches of the Raiden Gokaden, families of swordsmiths who practiced different forging arts derived from one taught by the Shogun (More About Kamisato Ayaka: III).
This part of his story is detailed in the Calabash of Awakening in the Husk of Opulent Dreams set. Amenoma (the same as the Inazuma blacksmiths) escaped his schemes, Isshin (Raiden's blade's line) was left barely intact, and Kyoushin, Doume, and Senju were all wiped out.
The Hunter or the Hunted
Here is where things start to get interesting. For the last 6 months, my brain operated under the blissful assumption that the Rather Aged Notes were raided BY the Fatui. As in, the Fatui were the ones looking for them.
And I thought that made sense, right? Maybe someone within the Fatui was investigating him further (like Pierro, or Signora), or Scaramouche himself ordered a raid on his former home to try and conceal evidence of his past.
But that's not what the blurb actually says. The blurb says "These notes seem to have been plundered during a recent raid on the Fatui." Which suggests that rather than being the raiders, the Fatui were the ones being raided.
And this could be a weird translation. It could be absolutely nothing, in addition to a misunderstanding. But consider some additional information that may make this more interesting:
Kamisato Ayaka's voicelines reveal some peculiar circumstances about her family. She states:
"The Kamisato Clan once suffered a major blow when we failed to protect a swordsmith of national significance. We were harassed by the Fatui, we lost many of our people, and we received a great deal of criticism. It all aged Father greatly, and severely damaged the Kamisato Clan's standing within the Shogunate." (More About Kamisato Ayaka: II)
She follows up on this tale in her third About voiceline:
"The art of blade forging taught by the Shogun varies based on astrology, application, materials used, the furnace conditions, individual personalities, and elemental changes. These differences between smiths if what gave rise to the Raiden Gokaden. Swordsmiths capable of forging renowned blades are seen as spiritual personnel with sacred abilities, and as such they should be managed by the Yashiro Commission, which oversees all cultural, artistic, and ceremonial affairs. So naturally, the swordsmith's betrayal is the fault of inefficient management by the Kamisato Clan."
The Kamisatos once oversaw the safety of at least one Raiden Gokaden swordsmith, meaning they had someone who Scaramouche was targeting. In an incident that is not disclosed as of now, this swordsmith's safety was betrayed "due to the incompetence of one of their subordinate supervisors" (Yae Miko Character Story 5), and the Kamisato Clan failed to protect them. In all likelihood, this swordsmith fell to Scaramouche's schemes. This would also mean that Scaramouche is responsible for Ayaka and Ayato's parents' stress and eventual decline in health, and that his revenge scheme nearly ruined the Kamisato Clan's standing in Inazuman society.
So here's how I've arrived at this wild speculation - if the Fatui were the ones being raided for the Rather Aged Notes, then who could have been the raiders?
The Yashiro Commission.
Yae Miko: It belongs to the Yashiro Commission. A secret unit under Kamisato Ayato.
Clandestine Revenge
To be completely clear, I think Ayaka has nothing to do with this operation if it is indeed coming from the Kamisatos. I think Ayato, as the Yashiro Commissioner and therefore the leader of the Shuumatsuban, ordered a raid on Tatarasuna due to the Fatui's increasing activity in Inazuma during the Vision Hunt Decree war and the rapidly declining situation on Kannazuka during that time. I believe this is just one of the things Ayato was doing behind the scenes during the Vision Hunt Decree to aid Inazuma while the Archon was absent in her role.
A raid on the Fatui is also completely within the Shuumatsuban's character thus far. Sayu is affiliated with the organization and carries out a raid on the Tenryou Commission as a part of the Inazuma Archon Quest's climax, and surely this is not something she could have improvised due to its highly sensitive nature. In addition, we have Momoyo (or "Gendou Ringo"), a skilled spy familiar with the process of creating fake dead bodies, and Sayu's own admittance that she was sent to assassinate the Traveler during her Hangout Event. These dudes are not to be trifled with.
More than this, though, Ayato may have had reason to believe by this point that the person responsible for the hell his parents went through and his premature assumption of the role of Kamisato Clan head had something to do with this island's past.
Let me explain. In the Plume of Luxury, Scaramouche talks to an "intelligent, lovely shrine maiden" on his mission to send help to Tatarasuna, which was experiencing a Tatarigami crisis due to Nagamasa's unsafe processing of Jade Steel from Crystal Marrow. Though it is not outright stated anywhere, there are sufficient context clues in-game for me to feel comfortable saying it was Yae. This would mean Yae was personally familiar with him, and that if she was aware of what happened on Tatarasuna, a place where weapons were being crafted, then she might have a reason to suspect him when renowned swordsmiths were falling inexplicably.
In her fifth character story, the aftermath of the swordsmith's betrayal is explored further:
The swords of Inazuma have always been famous the world over, and the best works of the Raiden Gokaden in particular are national treasures.
However, only a short time ago, more than half of the five artisan lineages were cut off.
A great number of powerful people were caught up in that conspiracy, and those responsible were all called to account and banished.
Even the Yashiro Commission's Kamisato Clan became involved due to the incompetence of one of their subordinate supervisors.
But before the Shogun could give her final judgment, the Lady Guuji, who usually did not meddle in government affairs, suddenly interceded, rescuing the Kamisato Clan in their hour of peril.
Thus, while they suffered a serious blow, they were spared from dismissal.
In the years that followed, others would speculate greatly concerning the Guuji's actions.
Some observed the close relations between the Yashiro Commission and the Grand Narukami Shrine, and guessed that she had intended to foster advocates loyal to her.
And yet the shrine had always been an entity unto itself, and the Lady Guuji did not usually meddle in governance. Thus this action seemed a sacrifice greater than the reward — hardly a wise decision.
Some others said that the Guuji suspected something to be wrong with the whole situation, and now that the list of those involved was so extensive, any major shakeup in the Yashiro Commission could destabilize Inazuma itself.
This thought, too, seemed reasonable on face, yet did not stand up to scrutiny. After all, was not the rise and fall of great houses merely ordinary in the grand scheme of mortal affairs? And even if the Kamisato were to fall from grace, new leadership for the Yashiro Commission would emerge.
Yet another story said that Miko engaged in secret talks with the Kamisato clan head just after the initial shockwaves had died down.
But the wounded clan was like a candle in the wind at this point. What power could they have to change the situation?
To this day, all these speculations have never amounted to anything, nor have any answers emerged concerning Miko's actions and motivations.
But what none know is how Miko's words that day would become as engraved into the Kamisato Clan as their house's crest.
"That the Kamisato Clan has survived this incident is only due to the Shogun's mercy. Do not forget this in the days that follow."
These words would serve as a seed of destiny, foreshadowing the Yashiro Commission's future position.
In some other time, if a storm were to descend upon Inazuma, and even if they were to come into conflict with the other two commissions, the Yashiro Commission's Kamisato Clan would remember the favor they were shown and abide the Shogun's path to Eternity.
This was a move that the Guuji played with no regrets whatsoever.
What I find so fascinating about the Raiden Gokaden story is that we really have no information about it outside of Ayaka, Yae, and the Husk of Opulent Dreams lore. Amenoma Smithy does not give any hints that they are among the sole survivors of a plot to end their lineage, and they are only alive and passing down their art because Scaramouche got bored.
In any case, I won't try to speculate too much into Miko's reasoning here. I think we'll know in due time, after all. But what I want to flag here is the fact that she did intercede, likely because she knew this long list of powerful individuals who were associated with the swordsmiths' downfall across the nation was a bunch of smoke and mirrors for the puppet who had once come to her shrine asking for aid.
If she did speak to the Kamisato clan head "after the shockwaves died down," this would have likely been Ayato's father. And if she did talk to him at all, I wonder if she disclosed any of her suspicions to him then.
As far as a motivation for the raid goes, I don't feel terribly comfortable guessing because Ayato is not out yet and I don't think we'll have a good read of his character until he is. What I can speculate, however, is that he may have wanted answers after all the misfortune that befell his family and ruined his parents' lives. Why did this happen? Who did this? Why his family? These are all perfectly reasonable questions for someone thrust into leadership at such a young age to ask.
If this theory is correct, then I suppose my biggest question is this: What does Ayato plan to do about it, now?
Theory Weaknesses
Timelines, timelines, timelines. When did Scaramouche begin targeting the Raiden Gokaden? How recent is the recent past, and wouldn't that overlap at least some of Scaramouche's schemes with his status as a Fatui Harbinger? This is certainly possible, as Vivi/Ryan pointed out. Just throws a wrench in what I thought I understood about the Husk of Opulent dreams timeline.
The other hangup I have is that, assuming I'm right to believe the blurb implies the Fatui were the subjects of the raid rather than the raiders, it means they already had the notes for some reason. Why?
Finally, these notes can be discovered the minute you dispose of the containment dome during Tatara Tales. The Fatui seem to have been closing in on the Mikage Furnace during that time period, rather than being an already established presence in the area. So, again, flaws.
Thank you for reading, and let me know if you have any thoughts on this as well. This is one of my favorite ongoing mysteries in the series thusfar.
