#syraq

[roguenewsdao]

Syraq SITREP 45: Israeli Missiles Strike Tiyas Air Base After Trump Threatens Assad Government Over Douma Chemical Attack

As the Russian Analyst noted in our previous SITREP, there have been media reports in Russia of American troops being targeted by 'Syrian resistance' fighters with improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and roadside ambushes. We know that one American soldier and one British servicemen were recently killed by an IED in Manbij, where the U.S./UK and France are trying to block their NATO allies the Turks from seizing the Kurdish held city and driving armed Kurds out. We also know that the Skripal case and the apparently miraculous healing of ex-GRU agent and MI6 asset Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia from poisoning with deadly novichok nerve agents is linked to what is happening in Syria. The linkage being the Organization for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), currently led by a Turkish career diplomat known for towing the NATO line, Ahmet Üzümcü.

Just as the OPCW is due to release its findings regarding what poisoned the Skripals, and when the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) was reducing the last jihadi enclave near Damascus, suddenly a chemical attack takes place in Douma. The initial reports are confused, some saying chlorine gas was used, while others describe the civilian victims as having symptoms consistent with exposure to nerve agents like sarin. Regardless, the well-orchestrated psyops campaign on Twitter sought to create the appearance of outrage, particularly among President Donald Trump's deplorable supporters, against the Assad government.

Mindful of allegations from the new media the 'moderate rebels' gas civilians in order to blame Assad, and of Russia's warnings for weeks that the jihadists would carry out a chemical false flag attack in order to prompt U.S. air strikes, the deep state/British sock puppets like Tom Rogan are saying that Douma was surrounded by the SAA before Saturday's chemical attack. They claim therefore that it would have been impossible for the jihadists to smuggle poison gas components into the encircled pocket. The fact that the SAA found factories converted into labs where chlorine or other toxic gasses could be produced in large quantities while liberating East Ghouta was not mentioned in Rogan's Washington Examiner piece targeted to conservative Trump supporters. Ghouta of course, was the scene of the 2013 sarin gas attack that killed hundreds and which prompted then President Barack Obama to threaten strikes on Damascus before Russia intervened to offer a diplomatic solution, whereby Assad surrendered his chemical arsenal to the OPCW. The Times of Israel is reporting that Iranian personnel were killed or injured in the most recent Tiyas strike, and the allegedly Iranian operated drone base at T4 was the starting point for a drone that flew into air space over the IDF-occupied Golan Heights. The IAF strike also happened after Damascus began massing troops freed up from the Ghouta operation to destroy the remaining jihadi pockets in the far south near the Golan, where Al-Qaeda has served as a 'buffer' for the Israelis.

We'll have much more to say about these developments later in the week, particularly if the neocons convince President Trump to foolishly launch more missile strikes on Syrian government forces, insisting that Russia and Iran will not dare to fight back. Do we think it's going to be World War III? Short answer: no. But we do think there will be a tough response from the Eurasian axis of Russia-China-Iran, even if it's asymmetrical.

[roguenewsdao]

Syraq SITREP 36: Russian Foreign Ministry Admits Dozens of FSU Citizens Wounded in U.S. Air Strike, Syrian Shi'a Join Kurds to Halt Turkish Aggression in Afrin

'Killing Russians' and the Risks of Escalation

If regular Russian forces had been involved in the deadly action, they almost certainly would have received air cover or been accompanied by road mobile Pantsir or advanced Verba MANPADs, and at least some of the low flying American Apache and AC130 gunships which savaged the ISIS hunters and their Russian contractor allies would've been shot down. The political consequences of such a black eye for Uncle Sam and the Trump Administration's supposedly risk free brinkmanship with the Russians and Iranian forces in Syria would be uncertain, but given the hysterical climate of Russophobia created since the election, Trump would be under enormous pressure to escalate to direct attacks on Russian bases. Russia's President Vladimir Putin has done everything possible it seems to avoid such scenarios while winning the ground war, using proxies wherever possible. The use of private military contractors in lieu of Russian special forces however, can be seen as a tactical if not strategic blunder by the Kremlin. It certainly created an inviting target for the Kremlin's enemies to, in ex Deputy CIA Director Mike Morrell's words, 'kill Russians' (and Donbass native former citizens of Ukraine) without running the major risk that Americans would die quickly in response (Moscow already has the coordinates of every significant U.S. forward operating base in eastern Syria ready to be hit with Iskander or Kalibr missiles in the event Kheimmim is destroyed in a surprise U.S. attack).

Nonetheless, even if the Feb. 7 body count has been exaggerated, the tone of the Western press in covering the incident has been almost gloating, while Russian media has been full of angry accounts from relatives asking why their husbands or brothers were given no direct support from the Russian Defense Ministry which disavowed them. The curious timing of the assault, in which the U.S. defended a demarcation line along the Euphrates River as if it were a border that the Americans have a legal right to be present on, was followed up within 72 hours by Israeli Air Force (IAF) standoff missile strikes, supposedly prompted by an Iranian drone overflight. The IAF of course, suffered the loss of at least one F16 fighter jet and likely severe damage to an F15, as well as disclosed near fatal injuries to an Israeli pilot. But the Americans unlike the Israelis still maintain their aura of invincibility in Syrian skies, notwithstanding their avoidance of Kheimmim's S400 batteries and the Russians reportedly adding multiple SU35 if not their latest SU57 interceptors to their Kheimmim contingent. As my white Russian Floridian friend The Saker wrote in mid-February:

"Events in Syria have recently clearly taken a turn for the worse and there is an increasing amount of evidence that the Russian task force in Syria is being targeted by a systematic campaign of “harassing attacks”. First, there was the (relatively successful) drone and mortar attack on the Russian Aerospace base in Khmeimin. Then there was the shooting down of a Russian SU-25 over the city of Maasran in the Idlib province. Now we hear of Russian casualties in the US raid on a Syrian column (along with widely exaggerated claims of “hundreds” of killed Russians). In the first case, Russian officials did openly voice their strong suspicion that the attack was if not planned and executed by the USA, then at least coordinated with the US forces in the vicinity. In the case of the downing of the SU-25, no overt accusations have been made, but many experts have stated that the altitude at which the SU-25 was hit strongly suggests a rather modern MANPAD of a type not typically seen in Syria (the not so subtle hint being here that these were US Stingers sent to the Kurds by the USA). As for the latest attack on the Syrian column, what is under discussion is not who did it but rather what kind of Russian personnel was involved, Russian military or private contractors (the latter is a much more likely explanation since the Syrian column had no air-cover whatsoever). Taken separately, none of these incidents mean very much but taken together they might be indicative of a new US strategy in Syria: to punish the Russians as much as possible short of an overt US attack on Russian forces."  -- https://thesaker.is/escalation-in-syria-how-far-can-the-russians-be-pushed/

The problem with such clever tactics of 'killing Russians' so long as they're contractors rather than servicemen, is that Moscow is unlikely to ever expose its non-servicemen groups in such numbers again without at least some air support or forward air controller spetsnaz accompanying them. The next time the Americans take a few shells falling hundreds of yards from their positions as a pretext to rain hell down on a Syrian force opposite them, they may find the retaliation more severe than expected.

The most likely risk to American forces and contractors accompanying them in Syria now, however, is likely to come from Iranian Quds force and linked Shi'a militia operatives infiltrating mixed Arab-Kurdish areas to plant IEDs or ambush an American convoy with thermobaric RPGs. Such Iraq-insurgency type attacks aimed at forcing the Americans to pull out are unlikely to be greenlit in Moscow or even Tehran, given that the Syrian government and its Iranian allies have their hands full at the moment. The Syrians are working with the Russians to contain Turkey's territorial ambitions in the Kurdish north around Afrin while cleaning up the jihadist dominated pocket east of Damascus, in the dense urban terrain of Ghouta. The jihadis corralled into Idlib province which Turkey has attempted to protect from further Syrian Arab Army (SAA) advances remain a threat to launch attacks, though they have been pushed back from the Aleppo-Khanasser highway. 

Turks Shell Pro-Syrian Government Forces Who Convoy into YPG Held Afrin, After Kurds Agree to Permit Damascus Loyalists to Show the Flag in Area as Deterrent Against Further Turkish Aggression

A convoy of Syrian Shi'a fighters made it into Afrin flying the Syrian government flag. Turkish media claimed that the convoy had been turned back by shelling which killed at least two militiamen, but at least several dozen vehicles made it through despite Turkey's artillery fire. Turkey's drones continue to swarm over the area but several have been shot down by Kurdish YPG forces, who continue to inflict losses on the Turks' Syrian jihadi proxies as they slowly advance on Afrin city outskirts. According to experienced Mideast correspondent Elijah J. Magnier, Damascus is making it clear to the Turks through Russian diplomatic intermediaries that the Turkish Army will not be permitted to advance any further. Erdogan has promised to besiege Afrin within days but it's unlikely the 'Olive Branch' operation forces he has committed present a sufficient amount of manpower for the task.

The most likely goal of the Turkish operation as we've mentioned before in Syraq SITREPs is to force the Afrin Kurds back into the arms of the Damascus government. That is to make them place Syrian Army forces not only along the border but within the canton to limit the YPG's ability to support PKK militants inside Turkey. Whether the Turks can actually achieve this goal. The Turkish Air Force can still bomb Afrin from its own air space and the Russians are not actively defending the skies over the enclave, but the Syrian Air Defenses reportedly moved closer to positions where they could engage Turkish drones and aircraft. If the Turks continue to bomb Afrin they are likely to see one of their own F16s shot down after Israel lost an aircraft of the same type earlier this month. If the Turks are forced to pull back after reaching some sort of face saving deal that nominally places YPG forces under SAA command if not actual control, then the U.S. would be left as the only major occupying force inside Syria. According to Magnier, that is the Russians' plan, which won't be deterred by American attacks like the air strike of February 7:

"Although the central government in Damascus agreed to send several hundreds of local militants from Nubbl and Zahraa and other national forces as a preliminary support, it is likely that the negotiations over Afrin will continue until mid-March in Kazakhstan between Russia, Turkey, Iran and Syria (indirectly), discussing not only Afrin but also Idlib- unless the Kurds acknowledge without delay all of Damascus’s conditions. Otherwise, with every day that goes by Turkey increases its influence and occupies more territory in the enclave. Russia is not expected to be satisfied with one hit against the US in Afrin but is accelerating the end of control by al-Qaeda and other militants (Faylaq al-Rahman and Jaish al-Islam) over al Ghouta, east of Damascus. The Russians would like to see the US alone (Russia considers Turkey is the lesser evil in Syria and can deal with it later) in Syria to point out its illegal presence and therefore illegal occupation of north east Syria, particularly when the remaining of ISIS concentration is situated within the area on the Syrian-Iraqi borders which is under the US control. The US forces are now looking like a force protecting the terrorist group and allowing it to continue its existence and operations in Syria and in Iraq."  -- https://ejmagnier.com/2018/02/21/the-olive-branch-is-breaking-afrin-pays-the-price-of-the-us-russia-struggle-and-turkey-is-part-of-it/

The Ghouta Urban Warfare Meatgrinder

The Ghouta region east of Damascus has been the scene of the bloody urban combat for years, with civilians suffering heavily as jihadists dug in using tunnel networks to hold off determined SAA assaults. This week Syrian and Russian air strikes have been pounding the area resulting in many civilian deaths, while the SAA masses armor and artillery for a major assault. Multiple rocket attacks and shellings from the area on Damascus city including Russian diplomatic and national reconciliation center relief facilities have created greater urgency in Moscow and among Syrian commanders to clean out the pocket and evict its jihadists to Idlib. Just as the Aleppo battle proved bloody to combatants and civilians alike, the U.S. and its allies are likely to demand a cessation of hostilities and condemn the Syrians and Russians for seeking a military solution to the humanitarian crisis created by the terrorists dominating the area.

[roguenewsdao]

Syraq SITREP 28: Attacks on Russia's Kheimmim Air Base, Iran Likely to Increase Support for Houthis as Payback for CIA Sponsored Unrest

From my Swiss White Russian Floridian friend The Saker, regarding how the December 31st attack happened:

"various Russian sources are saying that the defense of the Russia Aerospace Forces base in Khmeimim was protected by three distinct zones: an immediate close one ranging to up to about 1km, a medium one ranging from about 1km through 5km and an external one ranging to about 5km through 40km. The interior one was protected by Russian forces. The 2nd, middle one, was protected by Syrians while the large one was protected by Russian air defenses. The first zone would be the one of small fire. The second one is the tricky one: in includes urban areas and was under Syrian control. That is were the incoming mortar fire came from. There is now a lot of criticism coming about letting the Syrians be in charge of zone 2, but I personally doubt that the Russian would have the manpower to cover it. Not only is the airbase itself very large, but if we project the perimeter of the base to a distance of 1km-5km that would be a huge area to secure. Zone 3 is securely covered by Russian air defenses. So the real solution is to get the Syrians to introduce a much stricter control regime in Zone 2. That will no doubt be done. Oh, and whether this is a coincidence or not, but Bashar al-Assad did reshuffle his cabinet and replaced the Defense Minister."  -- https://thesaker.is/rumors-about-an-attack-on-the-russian-airbase-khmeimin-syria-initial-analysis/

The Russian Air Force responded Saturday by stepping up its bombing of jihadist positions in towns along the Turkish border in far northern Latakia's Jubal al Turkmen, an area which had been pounded after the downing of a SU24 by the Turkish Air Force in November 2015. The Russians are also fully supporting the Syrian Arab Army (SAA)'s advances into the jihadi held Idlib province. But the assaults on the Russian base, coming weeks after President Putin's visit announcing a victorious partial withdrawal of his country's forces, are a reminder that the conflict is not over and the regional players supporting the rebels 'moderate' and Al-Qaeda linked have not been defanged. Reading between the lines of experienced Mideast correspondent Elijah J. Magnier's year end article about Russian support for SAA operations taking back territory close to the Israeli occupied Golan Heights, it is not hard to guess which intelligence service or its Saudi ally may have supplied the jihadis with fresh satellite photos of Russian aircraft and ammo dump positions at the base:

"The Russian-Iranian-Syrian strike comes at a time when Israel is providing artillery and intelligence support for al-Qaeda and its allies in Beit Jinn. By recovering the area and the highlands around it, Russia is administering the first direct slap to US’s main ally (Israel) in the Middle East. Israel has long feared Iran and Hezbollah’s presence at its borders and did everything to stop the Syrian Army from reaching the Shebaa farms occupied by Israel, as is the case today following the liberation of Beit Jinn. However, there are still areas under indirect Israeli influence in occupied southern Syria (under al-Qaeda and its allies’ control), such as Quneitra area and the surrounding villages (Tarangah, Jab’bat al-Khashab, and Ain al-Baydah)."  -- https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2017/12/30/russia-is-imposing-new-rules-of-engagement-in-syria-on-israel-and-the-us/

The attacks coinciding with the clearly outside supported unrest inside Russia's ally Iran and threats from White House National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster about Moscow 'paying a price' for supporting Tehran's defiance of the U.S. are likely to draw the Eurasian powers closer together. If Moscow greenlights a response by the Iranians, it is likely to involve Hezbollah or more likely its Iraqi allied Shi'a militia Kata'ib Hezbollah firing mortars that land perilously close to American personnel deployed in lightly defended and vulnerable outposts inside Kurdish areas of Syria. We are already seeing via Southfront and Al-Masdar News more brazen Houthi missile launches at Saudi air bases. Mirror imaging or exceeding the jihadi mortar and small drone antics via Houthi suicide squads infiltrating bases like King Khalid Military City (KKMC) that host American or British personnel supporting the Kingdom's democidal war on Yemen could be the next card in the Cold War 2/Mideast proxy war. Although the protests in Iran continue and have involved violent provocations against police stations and lots of clearly sponsored fake news (including use of footage from Argentina and Bhahrain), there are genuine economic grievances behind them. Raised expectations after EU (but mostly not US) sanctions were lifted as part of the nuclear deal between Tehran and the Western powers with Russian and Chinese support have also played a part, along with the country's youth bulge. While 'Death to Russia' has been a rumor promoted by the usual suspects like ex-State Department hardcore Russophobe Paul Goble rather than an actual slogan of the Iranian youths, the discontent with the mullahs is real enough, as are the 2,000 Iranian and resident Afghan Shia combat deaths since Tehran intervened in Syria alongside its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah.

In the short term, the logic of tit for tat means the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will seek to raise the costs to the Saudis for openly supporting the unrest and threatening terror attacks inside Iran's borders. That means more missile strikes by the Houthis against Saudi military bases and the outskirts of cities, including making Riyadh residents aware that they aren't safe from the war their royals wage. Saudi security forces along the porous rugged border with Yemen will continue to be blown up in IED attacks like these:

In the longer term, even as the protests by a few thousands appear to be petering out for lack of middle class enthusiasm and popular or elite support, Tehran needs to deliver economic growth to the Iranian people or else face a much more serious uprising within a decade. While educated Iranians are well aware that Washington neocons do not have their country's best interests at heart but rather those of regional antagonists Israel and Saudi Arabia, they also know that corruption is a serious problem. Without the One Belt One Road (OBOR) and massive Eurasian investment, it is difficult to see Iran enduring the inevitable shakeout that could very well destroy the shaky Saudi regime by the early 2020s.

After all, the same justified grievances many Iranians have about their government's foreign and domestic policies -- young men coming back in coffins, hardline clerics edicts -- are even greater for the average Saudi subject, who knows princes live in un-Islamic luxury abroad when their Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman isn't arresting and torturing them to give up their cash. The Saudis thus far successful cover up of their 2-3,000 combat deaths suffered since they invaded Yemen in 2015 will likely be broken, as the Kingdom's wall of strict censorship becomes more leaky and Houthi-inflicted casualties mount.

Like so many other initiatives the Empire of Chaos has launched from Ukraine to Syria to Yemen, the blowback against the tottering Kingdom is likely to be severe in 2018. Russia's role will not be so much to directly target the Saudis as to allow its Shi'a regional allies to increase the military, diplomatic and Yemen humanitarian outcry pressure on them, and by extension, their American and Israeli partners.

[roguenewsdao]

Syraq SITREP 26: CIA MIA in Syria, Langley's 'Bin Laden' Abbottabad Docs Dump Conveniently Points to Iran After Putin's Visit to Tehran

"The receding specters of a war involving North Korea and a US-Russia confrontation in Syria. The sound of cracking ice in the frozen conflict in Ukraine. Russia and the United States bidding farewell to “tits-for-tat.” Is this the dawn of a brave new world? You might be skeptical, but it’s possible to draw positive conclusions from the two meetings, on successive days, between US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York this week. These meetings, in fact, bode well for another meeting ahead, between presidents Valdimir Putin and Donald Trump, this time in Danang, Vietnam, on the sidelines of the November 11-12 APEC summit. -retired Indian diplomat M.K. Bhadrakumar, Asia Times, "Straws in the wind for a reset in US-Russian relations", September 22, 2017"  -- http://www.atimes.com/straws-wind-reset-us-russian-relations/

U.S. Withdrawal in Return for Damascus' Assistance in Locating MIA CIA Agents?

What the Russian Analyst can reveal this week is that London Paul declared to Team RogueMoney in an email that U.S.-Russia back channel diplomacy, including through direct 'deconfliction' contacts between top American generals and Moscow's commanders on the ground in Syria, remain unaffected by the hysteria on Capitol Hill. What is being discussed now between the American and Russian generals goes beyond avoiding any accidents in the skies over the country or clashes between their respective clients the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the victorious Syrian Arab Army (SAA). 

Elijah J. Magnier, a well respected journalist for Kuwait based Al-Rai media with excellent sources from Beirut to Baghdad, has confirmed that the CIA is signaling to Syrian intelligence that the Trump Administration intends to withdraw U.S. troops from Kurdish areas in the not so distant future. According to the thread Magnier tweeted late Thursday night Eastern time/early morning in the Levant, the quid pro quo for U.S. withdrawal from Syria will be Damascus assistance in locating missing CIA agents who are either alive or dead, who disappeared on unspecified missions inside the country:

The Trump Administration's Priority in Syria: 'Countering Iranian Influence' Taking a Back Seat to Preventing an ISIS Resurgence,

In other words, contrary to the hot air among neocons about American troops occupying northeastern Syria's Kurdish areas indefinitely in violation of international law, London Paul's statements about the weakness of the U.S. position in the Mideast are confirmed by Magnier's reporting. Furthermore, the recent ISIS claimed Home Depot rental truck attack in Manhattan has made the New York native President Trump even more focused on preventing Daesh terrorists from infiltrating the U.S. and allied countries. Without Damascus or Moscow's cooperation, it will be difficult for the FBI or CIA to assist Homeland Security or MI5 in vetting Syrians claiming refugee status or jihadists from the former Soviet Central Asia seeking asylum from the region's autocrats.

Counter-terror interests have compelled deputies to the chiefs of Germany's BND and the French DGSE to visit Damascus under conditions of strict secrecy in the last two years. Naturally, the Israel/Saudi Lobby neocons and globalists dismiss any talk of Washington needing Syrian or Russian intelligence as useless, since they (falsely) insist Russia never gave the U.S. anything useful regarding terror plots after 9/11 (the most fanatical Russophobes like ex-NSA analyst John R. Schindler claim the Russians puppeteer Al-Qaeda/ISIS, despite the massive amount of funding these groups receive from America's Sunni Gulf allies).

With Daesh Defeated, Growing Risks of a Second Israel-Hezbollah War

However, as with many things in the Mideast, what at first appears to be a hopeful sign for peace in the region could exacerbate long simmering tensions between Damascus and the players not happy over their failed regime change proxy war leaving the Iranian-backed Assad in power. The draw-down and eventual withdrawal of American special forces and contractors from Syrian soil is indeed a reflection of Americans' lack of stomach for another Mideast occupation, even one conducted on a much smaller scale than in Iraq. But the flip side of the coin is that American troops could be 'getting out of the way' from Iranian backed militia retaliation on both sides of the Syraq border, should open hostilities erupt between Iran's proxy Hezbollah and Israel over the next several weeks.

This week's IAF strike on a factory in Syria's Homs province not far from the Lebanese border may be another effort by Tel Aviv to provoke a harsh response from Hezbollah. Thus far Damascus has responded by firing its 1980s vintage Soviet SAMs to drive off Israeli jets, without any confirmed kills.

A hasty exit from Syrian Kurdistan leaving behind only skeleton crews at the U.S. air strip bases established in the area would be a clear signal, along with a pullback to central Baghdad and Iraqi Kurdish areas, that the Americans are hunkering down from the potential Shia militia threat. In Iraq, pro-Iranian forces and politicians have not been shy about demanding that the Americans leave as soon as Daesh is finished off. That date now appears to be imminent, particularly after the Barzani mafia was humiliated in its aborted bid for Kurdish independence.

The timing over the next few pre-Thanksgiving holiday weeks, as W the Intelligence Insider has declared in emails to Team RogueMoney, seems right. With the last pockets of Daeshbags cleared out in Deir Ez Zor, the SAA and its Lebanese Hezbollah allies are advancing against the final ISIS stronghold on the Syraq border, at the Syrian town of Al-Bukamal. Russian strategic Tupolev 22M bombers struck ISIS targets near the town on Wednesday. The TU22M's used Iranian and Iraqi air space for the strikes, while Russian President Vladimir Putin was wrapping up his highly symbolic state visit to Iran.

Putin Visits Tehran, Russia and Iran Sign $30 Billion in Deals Included Gas Pipeline to India

The message of this visit, including the announcement of an expanded North South Corridor stretching from St. Petersburg, Russia to Mumbai, India and Russian assistance in the construction of a mega gas pipeline from Iranian fields to the energy hungry Indian subcontinent (including Pakistan), was unmistakable. Israel's pinprick air strikes against Syrian military production facilities likely built with Iranian money and assistance cannot effect Russian investment in Tehran's unstoppable economic rise. Nor can Israel's friends in Washington prevent the new Persia from integrating into the One Belt One Road (OBOR) project of the 21st century, of which the North South Corridor through the former Soviet Caucuses republics and the Caspian Sea shared with Russia is an integral part.

Nonetheless, the neocon Iran haters received a Halloween trick and treat from Trump's CIA director Mike Pompeo, in the form of declassified documents supposedly seized during the May 2, 2011 special forces raid on Osama bin Laden's 'compound' in Abbottabad. The attempt to manipulate the documents and highlight alleged examples of Iranian authorities assisting Bin Laden loyalists and relatives in passing through or residing in Iran was too much for some former CIA agents like Ned Price, who saw it as yet another attempt by Trump Administration hardliners to undermine the U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement:

"Trump’s Iran strategy is a dream project for Saudi Arabia and the UAE – and for Israel. It may seem like a relaunch of the old enterprise to contain Iran, built around an alliance system involving the US and its regional allies. But the circumstances today are different. The US and its allies stare at defeat in the Syrian conflict and are circling their wagons to stave off an ignominious rout with long-term consequences. Faced with Iran’s surge, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are willing to proclaim a convergence of interests with Israel. Clearly, Moscow surmising that the US-Saudi strategic relationship has weakened is premature. The axis with Iran is the only show in town for Russia on the Middle Eastern chessboard – whether or not it is Moscow’s preferred choice. President Vladimir Putin is heading for Tehran on November 1. The Iran deal will not be in jeopardy in the foreseeable future and, arguably, Tehran’s dependence on Moscow on that front is not critical. On the other hand, Britain, France and Germany have drawn together and mooted a proposal that their heads of government articulated in an extraordinary joint declaration on Friday to “constructively engage” with Iran to address their shared concerns over its regional policies. -- retired Indian diplomat M.K. Bhadrakumar, "The moment of truth is coming for Trump’s Iran strategy", October 16, 2017"  -- http://www.atimes.com/moment-truth-coming-trumps-iran-strategy/

Despite Neocon/CIA Efforts to Divert Attention from Saudi Arabia's Role in 9/11 and Longtime Sponsorship of ISIS by 'Linking' Iran to Al-Qaeda, U.S. Cannot Unilaterally Reimpose Sanctions

The problem for the Trump Administration being, as Obama's Secretary of State John Kerry stated a few years ago, is that U.S. allies could simply ignore an Israel-appeasing decision to tear up the agreement and proceed as if it were still in effect. The U.S. could counter by sanctioning countries like Germany, France or Italy whose railway, trucking, refining and heavy machinery industries are expanding deals in Iran, but such extra-territorial sanctions have already received the threat of replies from Brussels if not Paris and Berlin. On a related note, one of the reasons the Rex Tillerson led State Department is delaying implementation of measures Congress passed months ago as part of the 'Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act' is because the punishments for doing business with Russia's cutting edge armaments industries would either have to be waived or applied to partners of U.S. arms exporters in Turkey and especially, India.

While Washington insists it wants to keep Ankara in NATO and sees it as a trustworthy partner, the Pentagon has already complained Turkish purchasing of Russia's S400 air defense system hurts inter-operability within the Alliance. India is an even bigger prize for both the American and Russian military industrial complexes, with the Russians firmly in the lead after decades of deals and Delhi buying the S400, T90 tanks and Sukhoi fighter jets. Moscow and Delhi are also jointly developing the Brahmos hypersonic missile and stealthy Sukhoi PAK 5th generation jet while India's interest in the Armata MBT is strong. Thus the absurd contradiction between Washington and Tel Aviv courting India as a huge defense and civilian technology export market while simultaneously trying to punish the Indians for importing more Iranian gas. There is no way for the most brilliant minds Trump may assemble to square this circle on behalf of the tail in the southeastern Mediterranean which likes to wag the big American dog (or as they say in Texas, "that dog won't hunt").

'Linking' Iran to Al-Qaeda Isn't Intended to Persuade U.S. EU Allies to Restore Sanctions Against Tehran, It's to Start Rationalizing a Build Up for a Big War with Hezbollah

Nonetheless, a neocon cabal out of ideas and which senses it's running out of time may be turning to the favorite tool in the box to the looming threat of economic and monetary irrelevancy: war. If global thermonuclear war with Russia and China is too risky for The Cabal as London Paul calls them, going to that old post-Soviet 1990s Pentagon planning standby of attempting to wage two major theater wars at once on opposite ends of the Eurasian landmass might be the next best thing to buy the dying dollar more time. Or so the dangerously delusional if not psychotic minds demanding ever more demonization of Russia as a means to conflict with North Korea and Iran may think. The Russian Analyst is not so good at putting himself in the shoes of such people, but we do notice how the 'link Iran to Al-Qaeda' drum beat in the dying legacy media right on the heels of the hearings on Capitol Hill in which tech executives were berated for their failure to prevent Russian cognitive infiltration of hapless, gullible Americans' brains via trolling memes (we'll have more to say about that soon).

It is hard to say if the two minutes hates against Russia/Iran projects, while undeniably linked, have reached a crescendo sufficient to excite Americans into supporting a big Mideast conflict either concurrent with or preceding a second Korean War. In the estimation of W the Intelligence Insider, Israeli leaders believe they need to strike Hezbollah hard and achieve some sort of decisive blow before precision guided munition (PGM) shortages become an issue for the American military from bombing North Korea. On the other hand, as the Russian Analyst has observed frequently here at RogueMoney, the memories of a stinging defeat at the hands of Hezbollah and total failure of the IDF's ground offensive into Lebanon have not faded for many Israeli elites. Thus the Mideast appears to be on the knife's edge, as the losers from the New Paradigm feel the clock ticking down to a do or (geopolitical-ly) die moment.

[mikenudelman]

There's already a big flaw in Obama's emerging plan to fight ISIS.