It’s not just “who” but “why.”
Not too long ago, I did a reblog-reply of a post by goodqueenaly in which she has this to say about the Valonqar clause:
To think that anyone else could be the valonqar in my opinion completely misses the entire point of the prophecy. From the day Cersei heard Maggy the Frog’s predictions on her life and, especially, death, she has been haunted by the idea that her “little brother” would kill her. Because this thought has had such a profound impact in shaping Cersei’s life and worldview, the revelation has to be meaningful to Cersei. It’s Cersei who has to realize, in the moment of her death, why and how the person who has been ordained by fate or whatever you want to call it came to be her valonqarˆ. Someone who has no meaning to Cersei is simply not going to be her killer, and Jaime is the only one who makes a lick of narrative sense.
Up until the part that’s struck through, I agree with Ms. Friel and I think this is a very handy guide for interpreting the prophecy. My disagreement lies in the choice of Jaime as the “only one who makes a lick of narrative sense.” Jaime isn’t the only candidate who meets these criteria to fulfill the prophecy. Jaime is not the best candidate available. Jaime isn’t even a good candidate anymore.
The matter of what the revelation means to Cersei is important, yes, but there’s also the question of what the event of her death means to the killer. The act of killing Cersei needs to be a meaningful step in the killer’s arc. This is called “A Song of Ice and Fire.” It is not A Song of Cersei and Jaime. It’s not even A Song of Incest and Dysfunction, although that could actually made a decent alternate title. As much fun as it is to argue over the circumstances of Cersei’s death, there are more important things happening in this series. The revelation of Cersei’s valonqar is not so overridingly important as to twist Jaime’s arc back to the relationship he’s worked so hard to put behind him. Jaime is not a supporting character in Cersei’s arc. Jaime has his own thematic importance and his own story to tell, and his becoming a twinslayer would not serve that story.
But y’all don’t come here to see me get on my soapbox for Jaime Lannister. This is about Cersei and how GRRM plans to bring her cartoon-villain arc to a schadenfreude-laden conclusion. And that brings us back to my argument with goodqueenaly. And everyone else who’s so convinced the discussion is already closed. My position is that Jaime doesn’t even give us a good answer to the question of how the revelation is meaningful to Cersei.
How does Cersei realize, in the moment of her death, why and how the person who has been ordained by fate (or whatever) came to be her valonqar?
That little moment, when Cersei realizes why and how this person has become her killer as the prophecy foretold, is what I call (because I’m all about the classy language) the “oh shit” factor. The “oh shit” factor depends on these questions: 1) WHO is the killer, 2) WHY is he killing her?, and 3) HOW has he come to the position of being able to kill her?
The third question also involves the matters of WHERE and WHEN Cersei dies. These are not the issues that drive the prophecy, but they are a necessary overhead expense to deciding who does the dirty deed. IOW, the killer needs to have physical proximity to Cersei at the right time.
In addition to logistics, the killer needs to be someone whom Cersei trusts. First, because it’s much more feasible for him to strangle her if she lets him get close enough without her guards in the room. Second, because that’s a vital part of the “oh shit” factor: it doesn’t mean much to Cersei if the killer was already on her shit list.
Already, Jaime is not rising to the occasion. He can’t very well strangle his sister if she’s in King’s Landing and he’s in the North or the Riverlands. Even better, he’s no longer someone she trusts. She accused him of betraying her, and he had to ride up the Kingsroad all by his one-handed lonesome because she was threatening to have him killed. This is not a relationship with a shred of trust left. And if your response is, “but the show doesn’t count,” then first of all, enjoy your wrongness*, because D&D’s storytelling is much better predictor of GRRM’s outline than your cart-before-horse technique, and second: the books are hardly on your side. Already in AFFC, the twins are hardly on the same page. Already in ADWD, Jaime has effectively abandoned his Kingsguard vows and left Cersei to twist in the wind. He’s poking around the Riverlands to help Brienne with her quest to rescue Sansa Stark! He doesn’t care enough to strangle his sister, and she’s sitting there trying to convince herself he’ll still come back for her. It’s only a matter of time before Cersei admits to herself that Jaime is not on her side and cuts her losses accordingly.
This is getting long. More ideas later. For now, point is, Jaime’s not the guy who gives the best “oh shit” factor.
* When the show version tells you want you want to hear, you don’t tell us the show doesn’t count.