Big Al's Blog

Fantasy Football thoughts for those who cannot get enough. Check out AskTheCommish.com the Fantasy Advisors for more great fantasy football news and advice.

[thefantasyadvisor-blog]

Daily Fantasy Football: Week 3

OK, so as of Wednesday morning my DFS lineup at Fantasy Feud looked like this:

QB   Andrew Luck QB  Cam Newton RB  Marshawn Lynch RB Jonathan Stewart WR Antonio Brown WR Brandon Marshall TE Jared Cook D/ST Atlanta Falcons Flex  Frank Gore Flex  C.J. Spiller

I explained my process in my weekly column at AsktheCommish.com, which you can read here.

I actually felt really good about this lineup, which is always the sure kiss of death.

Brown is a no brainer each and every week. The remaining high-dollar players (Luck, Newton and Lynch) all have great match-ups. The middle-tier players (Stewart, Gore and Marshall) all seemed like excellent buys this week too. And the dumpster-diving players all have high ceilings this week: Spiller (plenty of check-down opportunities with McCown in there), Atlanta Defense (against a Dez-less and Romo-less Dallas offense) and Cook (against a Steeler defense that has struggled against tight ends).

Then the injury reports started to crystallize.

Jonathan Stewart and Marshawn Lynch (gulp!) both showed up as questionable -- Stewart with a knee and Lynch with a calf. It sounds like Stewart will play but will he give up some touches because of being less than 100%? Lynch sounds like he will be a true game time decision. Ugg! That Lynch pick was money in the bank this week too, as the Seahawks prepare for their home opener against the Bears and their dreadful defense. Dang!

With lineups due Thursday for this contest, I was left scrambling once again. Swapping Lynch for Jamaal Charles was fairly painless given their close dollar values. I even saved almost $2,000 by making that move.

One of the guys I strongly considered plugging into my lineup this week was Latavius Murray. I love his match-up against the Cleveland Browns this week, and he is a great price. However, I couldn’t afford to plug him in based on the other players I have in my lineup -- and to swap him in for Stewart means having to cut $20,000 elsewhere.

The way I see it there are 2 options: either downgrade one of my QBs or swap the mid-tier Gore for a lower tiered option. Downgrading from Newton means having to settle for a guy like a bottom feeder QB like Blake Bortles or Ryan Mallett. I do think either of them could be a sleeper play this week, as both will likely HAVE to throw the ball early and often to keep their respective teams afloat.  Still, I love Newton this week and he is priced so well.

Downgrading from Luck provides me with more options, as his price tag is much higher than Newton’s. I could replace him with a Marcus Mariota or Colin Kaepernick. Mariota has been a solid fantasy bet so far, and that looks like the obvious direction to go at this point.

Then I decide to see what player I could replace Gore with in order to get Murray into the lineup without having to downgrade either QB. And,lo and behold it is the same player that I went back and forth abut plugging into my original lineup on Wednesday: LeGarrette Blount. I originally passed because I normally don’t want to play guys with such a low floor. But I just have that feeling that Bill B. and the Pats are going to be tricky and make the move from an air raid offense as displayed against Buffalo -- and move to a ground-and-pound offense against the Jags on Sunday.

So LaGarrette it is.

[thefantasyadvisor-blog]

Daily Fantasy Football: Week 2

OK, so as of Wednesday morning my DFS lineup at Fantasy Feud looked like this:

QB   Carson Palmer QB  Colin Kaepernick RB  Matt Forte RB DeAngelo Williams WR Antonio Brown WR DeMaryius Thomas TE Vernon Davis D/ST NY Giants Flex  Terrance Williams Flex  Lance Dunbar

I explained my process in my weekly column at AsktheCommish.com, which you can read here.

I am one of those people that tends to think, re-think and then over-think things. So there is always going to be variation between the lineup that I discuss Wednesday morning and what the ultimate lineup looks like when it must by finalized by Thursday evening.

Wednesday I was seriously debating rolling the dice with Peyton Manning, given his lower-than-ever price tag of just $135,000. However, the more I thought about it, the more concerned I became about the short turnaround Thursday night game.  That then led me to worry more about D. Thomas too. Then I realized that I actually had Brandon Cooks (in a PPR or 1/2 PPR format) ranked ahead of Thomas this week. Since Cooks was about $8,000 cheaper, that allowed me to free up enough money to upgrade Kaepernick to Ben  Roethlisberger, who I have ranked as my #6 QB this week.

The more I looked at the name Lance Dunbar in this lineup, the more I became obsessed with upgrading his spot. Since he only cost $58K that was going to take some serious maneuvering. Looking at bargains in the $60K - $100K range, the name that jumped out at me was Sammy Watkins. Yes, I know he is coming off a 0-catch performance, and I also know that he plays the Patriots -- a team that he really struggled against last season. 

However, last week against the Colts, he was matched up against shut-down corner D. Davis. The Bills also got off to a big lead and never felt the need to get into a track meet against Andrew Luck. And these Patriots do not have D. Revis to shut down the opponent’s top WR like they did last year. I expect Bill Belichick to employ many 8/9 man fronts to stop what the Bills really want to do: run the ball. 

New England would rather force Tyrod Taylor to beat them than Shady McCoy. If Taylor is up to the challenge then that likely means good numbers for Watkins. If he’s not, then that likely means that the Bills will be in catch-up mode and forced to throw against a prevent defense in the 4th quarter, which may also mean good numbers for Watkins at the end of the day. Garbage time production is what allowed Antonio Brown to score a meaningless TD against the Pats as time expired last week.

Speaking of Antonio Brown...

So to free up that remaining $20K, I did the unthinkable: I swapped out Antonio Brown for DeMarco Murray. Crazy? Maybe. But historically I prefer stud RBs to stud WRs. And you have to believe that Murray is stoked to burn his once beloved Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. I have him ranked as the #2 fantasy RB this week, so I like the gamble. I am not saying that Murray will outscore Brown -- just that the $20K difference makes the drop-off worth it and allows me to upgrade other positions.

So the final submitted lineup looks like this:

QB Carson Palmer QB  Ben Roethlisberger RB  Matt Forte RB  DeMarco Murray WR Brandon Cooks WR Terrance Williams TE   Vernon Davis D/ST  NY Giants Flex   Sammy Watkins Flex   DeAngelo Williams

When it is all said and done, I significantly downgraded my wide receivers -- but significantly upgraded a QB and RB in the process. We will see how it works out for me.

Obviously Manning/Thomas came through for owners last night. We we will see how well my lineup does before determining whether I made the right decision to avoid them

Wish me luck!

[thefantasyadvisor-blog]

Risks Abound at the Top of the Fantasy Draft

The mantra in fantasy for years has been to play it safe with your first couple of picks and get it right. Save your riskier selections for the later rounds. The only problem is that in 2015 there isn't a player that doesn't come with at least some nominal risk.

Indeed, this is a very odd year when it comes to ranking fantasy players. In fact, this may be the most difficult time I have had in my past 20+ years of participating in fantasy football -- at least in terms of ranking the players at the top. You can probably poll a dozen "experts" to rank their top 12 fantasy players -- and get 12 completely different lists. The majority of players on the 12-name list would probably be the same, but the sequence would likely be different for all 12 lists. There isn't even a consensus #1 overall pick.

To see the full analysis, click here. 

[thefantasyadvisor-blog]

Buffalo Bills RB Situation

Whether or not you are (were) a fantasy owner of either Fred Jackson or C.J. Spiller, the fact remains that the injuries that occurred to both running backs in roughly a 10-minute stretch were crucial. The early prognosis on Jackson is that he will be out approximately 4 weeks with a groin injury. Spiller, meanwhile, was placed on IR (with the designation to return) after undergoing surgery to repair a shoulder that was separated in 4 locations. Ouch!

The bottom line is that Jackson is out for the foreseeable future -- and Spiller is done for the year. At least the fantasy year.

Enter Anthony "Boobie" Dixon and Bryce Brown.

Dixon came over from San Francisco to ostensibly be the Bills' short yardage back. However, in the preseason, he surprised the coaches with his relative nimbleness for such a large man. Head Coach Doug Marrone specifically likes that Dixon is willing to pound the ball between the tackles and run north-and-south. That was part of C.J. Spiller's game that had become maddeningly deficient.

Still, Dixon is what he is: a big, plodding back, who is unlikely to sprint down the sidelines. When pressed into action this past Sunday, Dixon was clearly gassed by the 4th quarter, making him ineffective in the running game. He also whiffed on a blitz pick-up late in the game.

Brown is a more interesting option. In fact, the Bills' acquisition of Brown -- followed by their refusal to play him has been perplexing to say the least.

When General Manager Doug Whaley  failed to make the (reportedly) desired deal to trade up from the 3rd round the 2nd to acquire Carlos Hyde, he went with his backup plan. That was to make a trade with the Eagles to acquire Brown. The deal nets the Eagles a 4th-to-3rd round pick based on Brown's production. That is pretty steep compensation in the NFL. Recall that the Bills themselves could only draw a 4th rounder from the Seahawks in exchange for Marshawn Lynch.

Brown was a superstar coming out of high school. He has prototypical size (6'0" and 220 lbs) and speed (4.48) and also has pretty good hands as a receiver. He has seen only limited action in his NFL career, backing up LeSean McCoy. However, he has been effective when called upon.

When McCoy went down with an injury in late 2012, Brown stepped in and posted very McCoy-like numbers in two games -- 19 carries for 178 yards and 2 TDs followed by 24 carries for 169 yards and 2 TDs. However, Brown struggled in his 3rd and 4th games substituting for McCoy carrying the ball a total of 28 times for just 40 yards.

Last year with a new coaching staff in Philly, Brown saw only 75 carries all season. He became expendable, and the Eagles were willing to part with him, especially with the newly acquired Darren Sproles in the fold.

So what does all of this mean going forward?

Well, clearly the coaches like what they have seen in Dixon -- and they clearly trust him. Depending on the flow of the game, he could be capable of pounding the ball between the tackles maybe 15 times with 3-4 yards per pop. However, stamina is obviously an issue, and his yardage total will have a relatively low ceiling.

Brown, meanwhile, does have some home-run abilities. But let's not forget: the coaches have not seen fit to even activate him a single game this year. Why is that? Well, this question came up last week when reporters were beginning to question why the coaching staff was continuing to misuse a struggling C.J. Spiller, while allowing Brown to waste away on the bench.

The coach-speak response was that there simply were not enough available spots on game day. With Jackson and Spiller sharing feature duties, Frank Summers playing fullback and Dixon in his short-yardage role, that is 4 RB spots already, and it is hard to dress more than that on any given Sunday.

I'm not buying it.

Remember, Jackson is the oldest running back in the NFL, and Spiller was scheduled (pending an opt-out clause that he may no longer be interested in, given his likely season-ending injury) to become a free agent in 2015. With these two on the roster for 2014, Brown's services were not required. It is very likely then that the long-term plan was to look toward Brown for 2015. The injuries on Sunday threw a monkey-wrench into that plan.

The obvious strategy for this Sunday and going forward would be to plug Dixon into Jackson's role and Brown into Spiller's. However, I suspect that what we will eventually see is Dixon maintaining the role he has had all along -- with Brown morphing into a hybrid Jackson/Spiller role. Of course, that may not happen right away, given Brown's inactivity.

From a fantasy perspective, I see Dixon as the safer player (especially this week) and Brown as the bigger upside play. Remember that the Bills face a tough Jets run defense this week -- followed by a bye next week. After that, if Jackson remains on schedule, he will only be a week or so away from returning. So in addition to the low ceiling, Dixon's shelf life for being a potential fantasy factor likely evaporates quickly after this week.

Meanwhile, if Brown produces, then his defined role may not change significantly once Jackson returns. He clearly has more upside -- and greater long-term potential. The fact that he has yet to carry the ball in a game this year is a double-edged sword. On one hand, he has fresh legs -- on the other, he is untested. Bryce Brown represents the proverbial boom-or-bust fantasy candidate.

If you are in a bind a need a "guaranteed" 5-10 fantasy points this week, then Dixon is your man. If you want to roll the dice and try to acquire an all-too-rare potential feature back, then Bryce Brown is your man.

The smart bet (if you have plenty of FAAB left) may to try to acquire them both -- and see how it all plays out.

Good luck!

[thefantasyadvisor-blog]

Great Backup Options for Elite Fantasy QBs

If you have read the article I wrote surveying the QB landscape a couple of weeks ago, then you know that I believe that there are three elite fantasy QBs this year. Those QBs are Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees, and they are all-three match-up proof. By that, I mean that can simply plug them in regardless of opponent week-in and week out. The only reason you would need to own another QB in typical fantasy leagues where you start just one quarterback is to protect yourself against injury -- Aaron Rodgers owners in 2013 know exactly what I am talking about -- and have a replacement during the starter's bye week. Oh, those bye weeks!

Some fantasy owners spend their entire draft over-worrying about covering their bye weeks, often sacrificing player value in order to avoid drafting too many players with the same bye. Others take the opposite approach. In fact, pinpointing a specific week where they would admittedly be in dire straits in order to ensure that their team is rock solid every other week. My approach has always been to concentrate on value early in the draft, and use the later rounds to fortify any bye-week problems my roster may present. If you chose Manning, Rodgers or Brees as your fantasy QB, you likely had to invest a 2nd (or even 1st) round draft pick to acquire them. That being the case, you will need to make smart use of your next several picks to make up for any value you may have forfeited at the RB and WR positions by taking the early stab at QB. The point is that you do not want to have to worry about picking up a backup QB until the late, late rounds. Let's start with Peyton Manning, who has an early bye in week 4. When I look at my early preseason weekly projections, an obvious option that jumps out at me that week is Ryan Tannehill, who I project to be the #5 fantasy QB that week, when he takes on the Oakland Raiders. Using analytics, I have Tannehill projected to pass for approximately 265 yards and 2 TD passes. Tannehill's Average Draft Position (ADP) right now is about 140. Considering that he has this great bye-week match-up against Oakland (30th in points allowed to fantasy QBs last year) and has sleeper potential this year should Manning miss any time due to injury, Tannehill would be a great low-risk late-round option. Aaron Rodgers gets a week off in week 9, and a possible top-5 option that week is Carson Palmer. I have Palmer projected to pass for 317 yards and 2 TDs against Dallas that week. The Cowboys gave up the 2nd most fantasy points to QBs in 2013, so this looks to be a great match-up for Palmer. Better yet, Palmer's ADP is an enticing 180 -- or the end of the 15th round in a 12-team league. There is no great diamond-in-the-rough backup option for Drew Brees when he has his bye in week 6. The following QBs all have favorable match-ups that week: Philip Rivers (vs. Oakland), Russell Wilson (vs. Dallas), Jay Cutler (vs. Falcons), and Ben Roethlisberger (vs. Cleveland). The issue is that, while all of these QBs are likley to be drafted as backups in  most 12-team leagues, they represent the cream of the backup crop (currently 13th-16th in our player rankings). The ADP for these players right now is anywhere from 87 to 138, so your best bet may be to just wait and see which of these players falls the farthest. Right now Big Ben is the QB that is going the latest, and you could do a lot worse than to tab him as a quality backup for Drew Brees with a projected 250 yards and 2 TD passes the week that Brees is on his bye. Happy hunting!

[thefantasyadvisor-blog]

NFL Announces 2014 Compensatory Picks

The NFL announced their compensatory picks at the league meetings Monday in Orlando.This year the league awarded a total of 32 compensatory picks in the 2014 NFL Draft to 13 teams.

The largest benefactors were Baltimore and the NY Jets with four compensatory picks apiece. The Ravens received an extra third, two fourths and a fifth, while the Jets got a fourth and three sixths. Dallas, Houston and Pittsburgh got three each while Atlanta, Cincinnati, Detroit and Green Bay each received a pair. In an earlier blog entry a couple of weeks ago, I explained the process for determining how draft compensatory picks are awarded. In a nutshell, a team losing more or better free agents than it acquires in the previous year is eligible to receive compensatory draft picks. The number of picks a team receives equals the net loss of free agents up to a maximum of four. Here are the teams receiving compensatory picks this year, with the round and overall number of each pick: Atlanta Falcons: 4th round (139), 7th round (253, 255) Baltimore Ravens: 3rd round (99), 4th round (134, 138), 5th round (175) Cincinnati Bengals: 6th round (212), 7th round (252) Dallas Cowboys: 7th round (248, 251, 254) Detroit Lions: 4th round (133, 136) Green Bay Packers: 3rd round (98), 5th round (176) Houston Texans: 4th round (135), 6th round (211), 7th round (256) New England Patriots: 4th round (140) New York Giants: 5th round (174) New York Jets: 4th round (137), 6th round (209, 210, 213) Pittsburgh Steelers: 3rd round (97), 5th round (173), 6th round (215) San Francisco 49ers: 3rd round (100) St. Louis Rams: 6th round (214), 7th round (249, 250)

[thefantasyadvisor-blog]

How Compensatory Picks Are Awarded

One of the questions I get asked most often is: What is the Formula for calculating Compensatory Picks? When I wrote my first Salary Cap FAQ and Free Agency FAQ pieces on AskTheCommish.Com many years ago, I alluded to the awarding of these extra draft picks -- but never went into great detail about the complex formula that the NFL uses when designating which teams qualify for these extra picks. Quite honestly, there was a reason why I didn't provide more detail: namely, the NFL has never come clean on exactly what  the formula is. So, I will do my best to break down the details that I do know about the calculations, based on what I have been able to glean from a couple of contacts in the league office.

First, remember that the concept of a Compensatory Draft Pick is to help teams that have been struck hard in free agency by providing them with additional draft picks to help "compensate" for not losses in free agency. The key word here is "net". I have heard from many fans whose favorite team lost a premiere free agent  -- and yet did not receive a significant Compensatory Pick in the following draft. That was likely because the same team had meaningful free acquisitions, which served to lessen the blow of the loss.

1. Each player signed, cancels each player lost.

2. Players earning league minimum salaries do not qualify.

3. Players released before the midway point of the season do not qualify.

4. Lost players, who were acquired the year before do not qualify.

5. Players who do not receive the minimal qualifying offer to be a Restricted Free Agent (RFA) or Exclusive Rights Free Agent (ERFA) do not qualify.

Those five qualifiers are pretty straightforward. The confusing part is identifying the rounds for which compensation is assessed. In general, the round of the compensatory pick is directly proportional to the size of the contract (in terms of annual value) that the player signed. The canceling out principal that I alluded to above applies to players with similar-sized contracts.

Finally, there is another aspect of the formula related to playing time. The playing time calculation is kept under tight wraps by the league, but I will say that it does involve total snaps.

Note also that when the calculations are performed and the net totals are assigned to each team, there is a cut-off after 32 picks. That is to say that the league awards a maximum total of 32 comp picks each year.

I have reached out to my sources in the league office to see if they could provide me with a "best guess" of what those compensatory picks may look like for 2014.

Check back in a few days with these predictions!

[thefantasyadvisor-blog]

2014 Free Agents By Team

We are just a couple of weeks away from the start of free agency. In case you are wondering what players from other teams may be available to help your team, take a look at the complete list of free agents by team.

Arizona Cardinals Rashard Mendenhall, RB Andre Roberts, WR Jake Ballard, TE Jim Dray, TE Jeff King, TE Kory Sperry, TE Eric Winston, OL Mike Gibson, OL Marcus Benard, DE Frostee Rucker, DE Matt Shaughnessy, DE Karlos Dansby, LB Javier Arenas, CB Antoine Cason, CB Bryan McCann, CB Yeremiah Bell, S Jay Feely, K Atlanta Falcons Chase Coffman, TE Sean Locklear, OL Jeremy Trueblood, OL Joe Hawley, OL Jonathan Babineaux, DT Peria Jerry, DT Corey Peters, DT Omar Gaither, LB Dominique Franks, CB Baltimore Ravens Bernard Scott, RB Jacoby Jones, WR Brandon Stokley, WR Dallas Clark, TE Ed Dickson, TE Dennis Pitta, TE Eugene Monroe, OL Michael Oher, OL Arthur Jones, DE Terrence Cody, DT Daryl Smith, LB James Ihedigbo, S Jeromy Miles, S Buffalo Bills Brandon Kaufman, WR Scott Chandler, TE Alex Carrington, DT Arthur Moats, LB Jairus Byrd, S Jim Leonhard, S Dan Carpenter, K Carolina Panthers Derek Anderson, QB Jimmy Clausen, QB Ted Ginn, WR Domenik Hixon, WR Brandon LaFell, WR Ben Hartsock, TE Jordan Gross, OL Bruce Campbell, OL Geoff Hangartner, OL Chris Scott, OL Travelle Wharton, OL Garry Williams, OL Greg Hardy, DE Colin Cole, DT Jordan Senn, LB Dan Connor, LB Jason Williams, LB Drayton Florence, CB Captain Munnerlyn, CB Quintin Mikell, S Mike Mitchell, S Graham Gano, K Chicago Bears Josh McCown, QB Jordan Palmer, QB Devin Hester, WR/KR Dante Rosario, TE Jonathan Scott, OL Eben Britton, OL Roberto Garza, OL Corey Wootton, DE Landon Cohen, DT Nate Collins, DT Henry Melton, DT James Anderson, LB Blake Costanzo, LB D.J. Williams, LB Zack Bowman, CB Kelvin Hayden, CB Sherrick McManis, CB Charles Tillman, CB Craig Steltz, S Major Wright, S Cincinnati Bengals Brandon Tate, WR Alex Smith, TE Anthony Collins, OL Dennis Roland, OL Mike Pollak, OL Michael Johnson, DE Michael Boley, LB Brandon Ghee, CB Chris Crocker, S Taylor Mays, S Zoltan Mesko, P Cleveland Browns Willis McGahee, RB Oniel Cousins, OL Shawn Lauvao, OL Alex Mack, OL T.J. Ward, S Billy Cundiff, K Dallas Cowboys Jon Kitna, QB Brian Waters, OL Ryan Cook, OL Anthony Spencer, DE/LB Jarius Wynn, DE Jason Hatcher, DT Edgar Jones, LB Ernie Sims, LB Danny McCray, S Denver Broncos Knowshon Moreno, RB Andre Caldwell, WR Eric Decker, WR Winston Justice, OL Zane Beadles, OL Dan Koppen, OL Steve Vallos, OL Robert Ayers, DE Jeremy Mincey, DE Shaun Phillips, LB Stewart Bradley, LB Paris Lenon, LB Wesley Woodyard, LB Quentin Jammer, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB Mike Adams, S Michael Huff, S Detroit Lions Shaun Hill, QB Kevin Ogletree, WR Micheal Spurlock, WR Brandon Pettigrew, TE Tony Scheffler, TE Jason Fox, OL Dylan Gandy, OL Dominic Raiola, OL Israel Idonije, DE Willie Young, DE Andre Fluellen, DT Rocky McIntosh, LB Rashean Mathis, CB John Wendling, S David Akers, K Green Bay Packers Matt Flynn, QB Kahlil Bell, RB James Starks, RB John Kuhn, FB James Jones, WR Jermichael Finley, TE Andrew Quarless, TE Marshall Newhouse, OL Evan Dietrich-Smith, OL Mike Neal, DE C.J. Wilson, DE Johnny Jolly, DT Ryan Pickett, DT B.J. Raji, DT Rob Francois, LB Sam Shields, CB Houston Texans Ray Graham, RB Jonathan Grimes, RB Deji Karim, RB Chad Spann, RB Ben Tate, RB Greg Jones, FB Garrett Graham, TE Andrew Gardner, OL Ryan Harris, OL Wade Smith, OL Antonio Smith, DE Earl Mitchell, DT Joe Mays, LB Darryl Sharpton, LB Elbert Mack, CB Indianapolis Colts Ahmad Bradshaw, RB Donald Brown, RB Tashard Choice, RB Tauren Poole, RB Deion Branch, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR Josh Lenz, WR Jeff Linkenbach, OL Mike Johnson, OL Mike McGlynn, OL Ricardo Mathews, DE Lawrence Sidbury, DE Aubrayo Franklin, DT Fili Moala, DT Pat Angerer, LB Kavell Conner, LB Vontae Davis, CB Cassius Vaughn, CB Antoine Bethea, S Sergio Brown, S Adam Vinatieri, K Pat McAfee, P Jacksonville Jaguars Chad Henne, QB Delone Carter, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, RB Taylor Price, WR Clay Harbor, TE Sam Young, OL Brad Meester, OL Brandon Deaderick, DT Kyle Love, DT Will Blackmon, CB Kansas City Chiefs Terrance Cooper, WR Chad Hall, WR Jerrell Jackson, WR Dexter McCluster, RB/WR Kyle Williams, WR Branden Albert, OL Jon Asamoah, OL Geoff Schwartz, OL Tyson Jackson, DE Frank Zombo, LB Akeem Jordan, LB Husain Abdullah, S Quintin Demps, S Kendrick Lewis, S Miami Dolphins Marlon Moore, WR Dustin Keller, TE Tyson Clabo, OL Bryant McKinnie, OL Richie Incognito, OL John Jerry, OL Paul Soliai, DT Randy Starks, DT Austin Spitler, LB Nolan Carroll, CB Brent Grimes, CB Chris Owens, CB Chris Clemons, S Minnesota Vikings Josh Freeman, QB Toby Gerhart, RB Jerome Simpson, WR Joe Webb, WR J'Marcus Webb, OL Charlie Johnson, OL Seth Olsen, OL Joe Berger, OL Jared Allen, DE Everson Griffen, DE Fred Evans, DT Kevin Williams, DT Marvin Mitchell, LB Desmond Bishop, LB Chris Cook, CB New England Patriots LeGarrette Blount, RB Austin Collie, WR Julian Edelman, WR Michael Hoomanawanui, TE Matthew Mulligan, TE D.J. Williams, TE Will Svitek, OL Ryan Wendell, OL Andre Carter, DE Dane Fletcher, LB Brandon Spikes, LB Aqib Talib, CB New Orleans Saints Luke McCown, QB Robert Meachem, WR Jimmy Graham, TE Charles Brown, OL Zach Strief, OL Brian De La Puente, OL Kenyon Coleman, DE Keyunta Dawson, DE Parys Haralson, LB Will Herring, LB Ramon Humber, LB Jonathan Vilma, LB Malcolm Jenkins, S Shayne Graham, K New York Giants Curtis Painter, QB Andre Brown, RB Peyton Hillis, RB Louis Murphy, WR Hakeem Nicks, WR Julian Talley, WR Brandon Myers, TE Bear Pascoe, TE David Diehl, OL Kevin Boothe, OL Justin Tuck, DE Linval Joseph, DT Mike Patterson, DT Shaun Rogers, DT Keith Rivers, LB Jon Beason, LB Trumaine McBride, CB Aaron Ross, CB Terrell Thomas, CB Stevie Brown, S Ryan Mundy, S Josh Brown, K New York Jets David Garrard, QB Darius Reynaud, RB Lex Hilliard, FB Josh Cribbs, WR Jeff Cumberland, TE Kellen Winslow, TE Austin Howard, OL Willie Colon, OL Vlad Ducasse, OL Leger Douzable, DT Calvin Pace, DE/LB Josh Mauga, LB Aaron Berry, CB Ed Reed, S Nick Folk, K Oakland Raiders Rashad Jennings, RB Darren McFadden, RB Jacoby Ford, WR Jeron Mastrud, TE Khalif Barnes, OL Tony Pashos, OL Jared Veldheer, OL Andre Gurode, OL Lamarr Houston, DT Jason Hunter, DE Daniel Muir, DT Pat Sims, DT Vance Walker, DT Phillip Adams, CB Mike Jenkins, CB Tracy Porter, CB Charles Woodson, CB Usama Young, S Philadelphia Eagles Michael Vick, QB Riley Cooper, WR Jeremy Maclin, WR Clifton Geathers, DT Corey Graham, CB Nate Allen, S Colt Anderson, S Kurt Coleman, S Donnie Jones, P Pittsburgh Steelers Jonathan Dwyer, RB Felix Jones, RB LaRod Stephens-Howling, RB Plaxico Burress, WR Jerricho Cotchery, WR Emmanuel Sanders, WR David Johnson, TE Michael Palmer, TE Rashad Butler, OL Guy Whimper, OL Fernando Velasco, OL Cody Wallace, OL Brett Keisel, DE Ziggy Hood, DT Al Woods, DT Jamaal Westerman, LB Jason Worilds, LB Stevenson Sylvester, LB Ryan Clark, S Mat McBriar, P St. Louis Rams Kellen Clemens, QB Brady Quinn, QB Adam Henry, WR Rodger Saffold, OL Jo-Lonn Dunbar, LB Will Witherspoon, LB Matt Giordano, S Darian Stewart, S San Diego Chargers Charlie Whitehurst, QB Ronnie Brown, RB Chris Gronkowski, FB Seyi Ajirotutu, WR Danario Alexander, WR Lavelle Hawkins, WR Rich Ohrnberger, OL Chad Rinehart, OL Cam Thomas, DT Larry English, LB Reggie Walker, LB Donald Butler, LB Richard Marshall, CB William Middleton, CB Darrell Stuckey, S San Francisco 49ers Anquan Boldin, WR Tarell Brown, CB Phil Dawson, K Anthony Dixon, RB Jonathan Goodwin, OL Mario Manningham, WR Colt McCoy, QB Kassim Osgood, WR Eric Wright, CB Donte Whitner, S Seattle Seahawks Tarvaris Jackson, QB Michael Robinson, FB Arceto Clark, WR Golden Tate, WR Bryan Walters, WR Kellen Davis, TE Anthony McCoy, TE Breno Giacomini, OL Paul McQuistan, OL Jason Spitz, OL Michael Bennett, DE Chris Baker, DT Tony McDaniel, DT Clinton McDonald, DT O'Brien Schofield, LB Chris Maragos, S Steven Hauschka, K Tampa Bay Buccaneers Dan Orlovsky, QB Spencer Larsen, RB Brian Leonard, RB Erik Lorig, FB Tiquan Underwood, WR Kyle Adams, TE Nate Byham, TE Jamon Meredith, OL Ted Larsen, OL Daniel Te'o-Nesheim, DE Gary Gibson, DT Jonathan Casillas, LB Adam Hayward, LB Dekoda Watson, LB Jacob Cutrera, LB Michael Adams, CB Danny Gorrer, CB Rian Lindell, K Tennessee Titans Rusty Smith, QB Jackie Battle, RB Leon Washington, RB Kenny Britt, WR Marc Mariani, WR Kevin Walter, WR Damian Williams, WR Mike Otto, OL Kevin Matthews, OL Chris Spencer, OL Rob Turner, OL Antonio Johnson, DT Ropati Pitoitua, DT Zac Diles, LB Alterraun Verner, CB Bernard Pollard, S Washington Redskins Rex Grossman, QB Dezmon Briscoe, WR Josh Morgan, WR Santana Moss, WR Fred Davis, TE J.D. Walton, OL Rob Jackson, LB Brian Orakpo, LB Darryl Tapp, LB Nick Barnett, LB London Fletcher, LB Bryan Kehl, LB Perry Riley, LB DeAngelo Hall, CB Josh Wilson, CB E.J. Biggers, S Reed Doughty, S Jose Gumbs, S Brandon Meriweather, S

[thefantasyadvisor-blog]

Top Player Targets from Week 1

Let's start by looking at the receivers who were most targeted in Week 1:

Most Targeted Receivers from Week 1

Anquan Boldin: 17 targets Andre Johnson: 16 Brian Hartline: 15 Kenbrell Thompkins: 14 Larry Fitzgerald: 14 Danny Amendola: 14 AJ Green: 13 Jordan Cameron: 13 Vincent Jackson: 13 Miles Austin: 12 Emmanel Sanders: 12 Randall Cobb: 12 Dallas Clark: 12

In terms of wide receivers and tight ends, target totals provide us with our best indicator of opportunity. However, as I always caution: Opportunity does not always guarantee production. Clearly, in the case of most of the receivers on this list, as you would expect, they did turn in top notch fantasy performances last week. However, Kenbrell Thompkins stands out as a player who was heavily targeted, yet failed to make much headway as a fantasy producer (just 4 receptions for 42 yards). Conversely, Boldin, the most targeted receiver of the inaugural 2013 week,  turned in a career performance (13 receptions for 208 yards and a TD).

That leads to a closer look at the receivers who best converted the opportunities (targets) into receptions:

Week 1 Players  Who Converted the Highest Percentage of Targets into Receptions (Minimum 5 Targets)

Reggie Wayne: 8 of 8 (100%) Nate Burleson: 6 of 6 (100%) Darren Sproles: 6 of 6 (100%) Tyler Eifert: 5 of 5 (100%) Jermaine Gresham: 5 of 5 (100%) Jason Witten: 8 of 9 (88.9%) Andre Roberts: 8 of 9 (88.9%) Doug Baldwin: 7 of 8 (87.5%) Jerome Simpson:  7 of 8 (87.5%) Kellen Winslow:  7 of 8  (87.5%)

While converting targets into receptions is an important factor -- especially in PPR formats -- note that this list of players is mostly comprised of guys who figured heavily in the short passing game. They do call them high percentage plays, after all!

In terms of production, perhaps a better stat to analyze is Fantasy Points per Target:

Week 1 Players with the Most Fantasy Points Per Target (PPT):

Victor Cruz     3.725 Julius Thomas    3.286 Leonard Hankerson   2.857 Owen Daniels   2.67 DeMaryius Thomas     2.4445 Jared Cook    2.51 Vernon Davis     2.422 Eddie Royal     2.40 Julian Edelman   2.211 AJ Green   2.1692

The fantasy points calculated above are based on standard scoring formats -- 1 point per 10 yards receiving and 6 points per receiving TD.

[thefantasyadvisor-blog]

Why the 2-Stud RB Strategy Is Back in Play in 2013

Last season, I wrote a blog imploring fantasy owners to seriously consider scrapping the tried-and-true 2 Stud Running Back philosophy – and at least entertain the notion of drafting a quarterback (gasp!) in the first round.

There were a number of reasons for that. One, with offenses keying more on the passing game than ever before, the QB position had risen to new heights.  Second, there were significant questions surrounding many of the top running backs headed into last season – and I could not in good conscience recommend drafting more than a dozen or so in the first two rounds.

This year I am back on board with targeting running backs early again – as long as you do not “reach” to do so.

Why? For one thing, the traditional theories behind this strategy still hold true. That is, in standard leagues, fantasy owners only start one (1) QB but two (2) RBs. So, for example, in a twelve-team league, the number of starting QBs is merely 12, whereas the number is 24 for RBs. Hence, the demand for fantasy RBs is significantly higher than it is for fantasy QBs, whereas, the supply disparity is not nearly so pronounced.

Speaking of supply, the QB pool is deeper now than it has ever been. In 2009, for the first time ever, 10 QBs passed for 4000 yards.  After a “down” passing year in 2010 (when that number dropped to 5),  in 2011 we again witnessed 10 QBs break the 4000-yard mark, and last season a new record was set with 11.  

Just taking a quick gaze at our QB rankings, we have  guys like Andrew Luck, Tony Romo, Ben Roetlisberger, and Eli Manning rank in the 11-14 range.  And, while I would certainly prefer a Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, I could live with any of these other lower-tier potential starting fantasy QBs, given the enhanced RB situation I would have by investing in RBs early.

Let’s look in greater detail at what I am talking about. To land a Brees or Rodgers would require that you invest a QB pick in one of the first two rounds. Depending on where you are picking in the draft, the value in passing over a RB for one of these QBs could be detrimental. For example, if you are picking in the middle of each round – and a assuming you did draft a stud RB with your first round selection –you would be looking at (assuming no one falls) a borderline top 12 fantasy RB there.  If you take a QB there instead and wait until the 3rd round to address your RB2 position, then you would be looking at a second RB in the 18-20 range. However, if you pass on a QB there, chances are pretty good that you can still land a top 5 QB in the 3rd round.  In fact, you can probably even wait until the middle rounds and still land a top 10 fantasy QB.

Remember, the object is to outscore your opponent each week in overall points, not points at a particular position.

[thefantasyadvisor-blog]

Early 2013 Cap Numbers for Every NFL Team

Listed below is the cap space for each team headed into the 2013 season. As I mentioned a couple of weeks back, the cap number for this season is projected to be only a few hundred thousand over last year's number. However, many teams have the luxury of some carryover cap space. The value is parenthesis represents that carryover value. These numbers are unofficial as of 1/9/2013.

Cincinnati  $55.1M ($8.5M)

Cleveland  $48.9M ($14.3M)

Indianapolis $46M ($3.5M)

Miami  $35.8M ($5.3M)

Tampa Bay  $31.3M ($8.5M)

Jacksonville  $22.1M ($19.5M)

Buffalo  $20.6M ($9.8M)

Tennessee  $19.4M ($12.8M)

New England  $18.6M ($5.6M)

Seattle  $18.6M ($13.2M)

Denver  $18.5M ($11.5M)

Kansas City  $16.1M ($14M)

Minnesota  $16.1M ($8M)

Baltimore  $15.7M ($1.2M)

Chicago  $13.3M ($3.2M)

Houston  $12.9M ($2.4M)

San Diego  $8.7M ($995,000)

Green Bay  $7.1M ($7M)

Philadelphia  $5.2M ($23M)

Atlanta  $4.9M ($307,000)

San Fran  $3.9M ($859,000)

St. Louis  $1.8M ($247,000)

Arizona  -$723,000 ($3.6M)

Detroit  -$1.1M ($486,000)

Washington  -$4M ($4.2M)

Oakland  -$4.5M ($4.5M)

NY Giants  -$4.7M ($1M)

Pittsburgh  -$10.8M ($758,000)

Carolina  -$11.8M ($3.6M)

New Orleans  -$14.7M ($2.7M)

Dallas  -$18.2M ($2.3M)

NY Jets  -$19.4M ($3.4M)

A couple of quick observations:

$74.5M in cap space separates the Bengals and the Jets.

10 of the 32 teams are currently OVER the cap and will need to make moves between now and the start of the league year in March.

[thefantasyadvisor-blog]

NFL Releases Key Dates for 2013

January 5-6 -- Wild Card Playoffs January 6 -- Assistant coaches under contract to playoff clubs that have byes in the Wild Card weekend may be interviewed for head coaching positions through the conclusion of the Wild Card games. January 12-13 -- Divisional Playoffs. January 13 -- Assistant coaches under contract to playoff clubs that won their Wild Card games may be interviewed for head coaching positions through the conclusion of Divisional Playoff games. January 15 -- Deadline for underclassmen to petition for special eligibility for the 2013 NFL Draft. January 19 -- East-West Shrine Game, Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida. January 20 -- AFC and NFC Championship Games. January 24-25 -- Regional Combine, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii January 26 -- Senior Bowl, Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, Alabama. January 27 -- AFC-NFC Pro Bowl, Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawaii. January 27 -- An assistant coach, whose team is participating in the Super Bowl, who has previously interviewed for another club’s head coaching job may have a second interview with such club no later than the Sunday preceding the Super Bowl. February 2 -- Texas vs. Nation College All-Star Game, Eagle Stadium, Allen, Texas. February 3 -- Super Bowl XLVII, Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana. February 9-10 -- Regional Combine, Orange Coast College-Lebard Stadium, Los Angeles, California February 16 -- Regional Combine, Methodist Training Center (Texans), Houston, Texas February 17 -- Regional Combine, Cleveland Browns Training Facility, Cleveland, Ohio February 20-26 -- Combine Timing and Testing, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana March 2-3 -- Regional Combine, Atlantic Health Jets Training Facility, New York/New Jersey March 9 -- Regional Combine, One Buccaneer Place, Tampa, Florida March 10 -- Regional Combine, Halas Hall (Bears), Chicago, Illinois March 9-11 -- Clubs are permitted to enter into contract negotiations with certified agents of players who will be Unrestricted Free Agents at the end of the current League Year. March 12 -- Prior to 4:00 p.m., New York time, clubs must exercise options for 2013 on all players who have option clauses in their 2012 contracts. March 12 -- Prior to 4:00 p.m., New York time, clubs must submit Qualifying Offers to their Restricted Free Agents with expiring contracts and to whom they desire to retain a Right of First Refusal/Compensation. March 12 -- Prior to 4:00 p.m., New York time, clubs must submit a minimum salary offer to retain exclusive negotiating rights to their players with expiring 2012 contracts and who have fewer than three seasons of free agency credit. March 12 -- All 2012 player contracts will expire at 4:00 p.m., New York time. March 12 -- Top-51 Begins. All clubs must be under the Salary Cap prior to 4:00 p.m., New York time. March 12 -- The 2013 League Year and Free Agency period begin at 4:00 p.m., New York time. March 12 -- Trading period begins at 4:00 p.m., New York time, for 2013 after expiration of all 2012 contracts. March 16-17 -- Regional Combine, Atlanta Falcons Training Facility, Atlanta, Georgia March 17-20 -- Annual League Meeting, The Biltmore, Phoenix, Arizona. March 23-24 -- Regional Combine, Virginia Mason Athletic Center (Seahawks), Seattle, Washington March 23-24 -- Regional Combine, Baltimore Ravens Training Facility, Baltimore, Maryland April 7-8 -- Super Regional Combine, Cowboys Stadium, Dallas, Texas April 25-27 -- NFL Draft, New York City, New York. May 20-22 -- NFL Spring League Meeting, Hyatt-Harborside, Boston, Massachusetts. September 5, 8-9 -- NFL Kickoff 2013

[thefantasyadvisor-blog]

NFL Floats Projected 2013 Salary Cap Numbers

The 2013 salary cap is tentatively slated to be at or just below $121 million, according to NFL sources.

The values for restricted free agent designations and franchise tenders have also been set. Below are the tentative franchise tag and transition tag numbers for each position, in millions.

These figures were distributed in early December at the annual meeting of team owners in Dallas, reports NFL.com. They will likely be finalized in March.

CB: Franchise: $10.668         Transition: $8.939 DE: Franchise: $10.984         Transition: $8.994 DT: Franchise: $8.306           Transition: $6.919 K/P: Franchise: $2.926         Transition: $2.654 LB: Franchise: $9.455           Transition: $8.216 OL: Franchise: $9.660           Transition: $8.560 QB: Franchise: $14.642         Transition: $12.845 RB: Franchise: $8.079           Transition: $6.851 S: Franchise: $6.798             Transition: $5.899 TE: Franchise: $5.962            Transition: $5.105 WR: Franchise: $10.357        Transition: $8.716

[thefantasyadvisor-blog]

Public Enemy Number One: Chan Gailey

In years past, the biggest enemy of fantasy football has been Coach Mike Shanahan, who has notoriously played games with the injury report and out-right lied about which of his players would see action in any given week. This year Chan Gailey has replaced Shanahan as Public Enemy No 1. At least Shanahan did what he did to try to get a competitive advantage. We have NO IDEA why Gailey does what he does -- namely, limit the amount of touches that his explosive young RB, C.J. Spiller, gets. It reminds me of how the Bills used O.J. Simpson as a "decoy" early on in his career. Or, how George Allen insisted on using John Riggins as a lead blocking fullback. Take last week.

The Bills pretty much led most of the game. The offensive line was banged up and struggled in pass protection, allowing 5 sacks. The weather conditions were less than ideal. Fred Jackson was averaging just a little over 1 yard per carry, whereas Spiller was averaging over 5 yards per carry in the game. (By the way, Spiller also happens to lead the league in yards per carry this year!) Jackson, who Gailey seems to trust much more than Spiller when the team gets into the redzone, was responsible for a very costly fumble. It was not the first time that Jackson has coughed it up in the redzone this year. Yet, unbelievably, Spiller saw just 7 carries on the day -- and just one in the 4th quarter when the offense SHOULD have been trying to run out the clock. There is simply no excuse for this. And Chan Gailey SHOULD be fired for his ineptitude. Chan Gailey, you are a Jabroni! Now, Jackson did go down late in the game last week with a sprained knee that will cost him the rest of the season. So Gailey is going to be FORCED to use Spiller more. By Gailey's own admission, the only real alternative, Tashard Choice, is "not a great running back". But guess what? Gailey will still probably yank Spiller out of key redzone situations and plug Choice in instead against Seattle's #5 ranked defense (in terms of points allowed to fantasy RBs). Like I said, Chan Gailey, you are a Jabroni! Even though Gailey has no choice but to give the rock to Spiller, this was the same situation we saw back in Weeks 2 and 3 when Jackson was out with a broken leg. Even in those games, also games in which the Bills led the whole game, Spiller got no more than 15 carries. (In Gailey's defense, Spiller did injure his shoulder in the 2nd of those 2 games.) Still, Spiller has acquired 15 or more carries in exactly 2 games this season. And guess what? The Bills are 2-0 in those games. (They are otherwise 3-8.)

Chan, are you listening?

[thefantasyadvisor-blog]

Week 11 Rants

It is weeks like this one that try my sanity -- and even cause me to question my acumen as supposed fantasy expert.

In one of my leagues I was done-in this past week by a guy who was forced to start Matt Schaub at QB because his usual starter, Eli Manning, was on a bye. Now, I suppose with the way that Eli had been under-performing the last few weeks, my opponent may very well have started Schaub against the lousy Jacksonville defense anyway. True enough. But what hurts is that this guy had very little else in his fantasy lineup this week -- yet was able to beat my team thanks almost exclusively to Schaub's contributions. Schaub passed for 527 yards and 5 TDs, which was good enough for 35 points in this league.

For my part, I whiffed on a couple of my own players in this same league.

It seems that I had the good sense to pick up Marcel Reece off the waiver wire. However, I did not have the cajones to start him over resident stud LeSean McCoy. What am I always preaching? Start your studs every week, right? Of course, Reece racked up almost 200 yards in total offense, and McCoy looks to be out of the lineup for the foreseeable future after sustaining a concussion in a situation in which he probably should not have even been on the field, given that the Eagles were long out of the contest against Washington.

It gets better.

I was so convinced that Denarius Moore was going to have a great week against the Saints' lousy pass defense (last in the league in most fantasy circles), that I started him over Andre Johnson. This was actually a close call, but I trusted my player rankings. I had Moore ranked 10th and Johnson 15th at the WR position.Moore rewarded my confidence with one measly catch for 9 yards. Considering that Moore also had one rushing attempt for negative 5 yards, he netted me a single catch for 4 yards. Ugh! After the game, reporters asked Palmer why he didn't get Moore more involved. Well, he tried -- 7 targets, which is reasonable -- but Palmer said that he and Moore had some communication issues during the game. They promise to work on that together this week. Thanks, fellas.

I did not hate Johnson, I just figured that Arian Foster and the running game would have so much success that neither Schaub nor Johnson would be a huge factor. And who could have guessed that Chad Henne -- who did not even start the game, mind you -- and Justin Blackmon would FORCE Schaub and AJ to do what they did by rolling up their own collection of insane stats against the Texans' vaunted defense?

Bet many of you are regretting starting Houston's defense too, huh?

Like I said, it was just one of those weeks.

[thefantasyadvisor-blog]

Week 10: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Week 10 provided us with an interesting display of football as many games went as planned -- while others took a massive detour into the unexpected. An, while we were right on with most of our fantasy predictions, we were a bit off on some and WAY off on others.

The Good

Not necessarily that the players performed well -- but rather that our prediction of how they would perform was pretty much on the money.

Matt Ryan (Start) The Prophecy: He has a VERY favorable match-up on tap in Week 10 when the Falcons head out to New Orleans to face the Saints. The Saints rank #30 in our Pass Defense Power Rankings. They also rank #32 in points allowed to fantasy QBs. New Orleans has been awful on defense this season and Ryan threw for a combined 724 yards and three scores in the teams' two meetings last year. Call him our START OF THE WEEK. The Reality: This one was really not that hard to predict. The game turned into a shootout, and Ryan put the ball in the air 52 times. He finished with 414 passing yards, 3 TD passes and an INT. He also came very close to completing a 4th TD pass at the end of the game.

Philip Rivers (Start) The Prophecy: An average game for him is 230 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. That is not getting it done from a fantasy perspective. Even last week against the lousy Chiefs defense he was efficient rather than explosive. So why are suggesting rolling him out there this week? Well, Rivers takes on a weak Buccaneers' passing defense. The Bucs are allowing over 318 passing yards per game -- last in the league. They also rank #32 in our Pass Defense Power Rankings. The Reality: In what turned out to be a losing effort, Rivers completed 29 of 37 pass attempts for 337 yards and 3 TDs. Alas, his 2 INTs were very costly, but he still wound up being a top 5 fantasy QB in most formats.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (Reward) The Prophecy:Fitz remains a hit-or-miss proposition. Last week, we suggested sitting him against a strong Texan defense -- and hopefully you took our advice. The usual flaws in his game continue to resonate: no touch on the deep ball, inconsistent accuracy (as opposed to downright inaccuracy) and a maddening tendency to average little more than 5-6 yards per pass attempt. Although these same issues will likely rare their ugly ahead this week once more against the Patriots this week, the good news is that the New England secondary has problems covering as well as tackling. The Patriots rank #28 in our Pass Defense Power Rankings and are giving up the fifth most points to fantasy QBs. Hence, Fitzpatrick should be good for a decent amount of passing yards and possibly multiple TD passes. The Reality: This turned out to be genuinely prophetic, as Fitz did exactly what he suggested he would. He passed for 337 yards and multiple (2) TD passes. He also threw a really bad interception at the worst possible time, as the Bills were driving for a would-be go-ahead score with 30 seconds to go.

Matt Schaub (Sit) The Prophecy: Schaub might be throwing more than expected in Week 10 at Chicago, but that will be a difficult match-up. The Bears' defense ranks #1 in fantasy points allowed to QBs. Plan on using Schaub as a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback against the Bears. The Reality: In what turned out to be an ugly (or beautiful, depending upon your perspective) defensive battle, the Texans had trouble getting the passing game going against the Bears. In fact, Schaub failed to crack the 100-yard mark, passing for just 95 yards. He did complete a TD pass to Arian Foster but also tossed 2 INTs.

Stevan Ridley (Start) The Prophecy:He and the Pats are rested after a bye and will face a familiar opponent this week. Ridley had 106 rushing yards and two touchdowns Week 4 against the Bills, so Ridley will be a viable Fantasy option again Week 10. The Bills rank #31 in our Run Defense Power Rankings, #32 in rushing TDs allowed, #31 in rushing yards allowed, and are #32 in points allowed to fantasy RBs. Ridley should be a top 10 fantasy option at the RB position this week. The Reality: We predicted 99 total yards and a TD. Ridley finished with 98 yards and a TD.

C.J. Spiller (Reward) The Prophecy:The Bills made idiotically little use of the running game in their loss to the Texans last week, despite the fact that they were in the game until the closing minutes. That is on Chan Gailey. Hopefully, he will make better use of Spiller and Jackson this week against the Patriots. Throw out the poor performances by both Jackson and Spiller last time they faced the Pats (in Week 4) -- both were being rushed (probably too soon) from injuries. Spiller is clearly the more explosive of the two Buffalo backs, and we expect Gailey to find clever ways to get Spiller involved. Even if the Bills fall behind early and are forced into the passing game, Spiller is effective in that role as well. The Reality: Gailey did not exactly wake up and smell the coffee, but Jackson and Spiller combined for 25 carries against the Patriots, and, while Jackson did get the most attention, Spiller was indeed the more explosive of the two. In fact, Spiller finished with 131 yards on just 13 total touches.

Ryan Mathews (Sit) The Prophecy: Mathews has yet to top 100 yards rushing in a game this year, and he has rushed for just one touchdown. He has a solid 4.4 yards-per-carry on the season, but (again) the lack of meaningful touches continues to be a problem. The Chargers will try to get Mathews going in Week 10 against the Buccaneers, a team that is allowing just 14.1 Fantasy points per game against running backs. The Buccaneers rank #5 in our Run Defense Power Rankings and are #1 in rushing yards allowed. The Reality: We predicted 73 total yards with no score. Mathews finished the day with 76 total yards and no score. At least Norv Turner TRIED to get him involved with 17 rushes and 22 total touches in the game.

DeAngelo Williams (Sit) The Prophecy: Just when we were all writing him off (even believing that the Panthers would trade him), Williams responded with a pretty good fantasy outing. Of course, this performance was essentially the result of a single carry -- a 30-yard TD run in which Williams put on ballet-like moves to tightrope the sideline. The run was also aided by an inadvertent whistle (sure these are not replacement officials?), which may have caused the defense to ease up. Williams gained just 7 yards on his other five carries. Not good. So do not let this one run, fool you into inflating Williams' value (unless you are trying to hoodwink another owner into trading for him). Williams and Stewart remain in what amounts to a time share with each of them getting an almost identical number of carries (67 for Williams, 62 for Stewart), and Stewart being the more effective of the two in the passing game. The Reality: Bingo! Williams was his usual ineffective self with 6 rushes for 6 yards and a single reception for 17 yards. Not that Stewart is much better, but at least he managed to rush for 32 yards and caught 2 passes.

Matt Forte (Risk) The Prophecy:Forte is an elite running back, and now has double-digit Fantasy points in three of his last four games. You probably have to start him, but be fore-warned that he has a tough match-up this week. The Texans rank #4 in our Run Defense Power Rankings, #1 in rushing TDs allowed, #2 in rushing yards allowed, and #3 in fantasy points allowed to RBs. The Reality: The Texans indeed did a great job bottling Forte up all game long.

Michael Crabtree (Start) The Prophecy: He's a decent bet in your lineup this week being that he had 12 catches for 182 yards and 3 TDs against St. Louis last year and 10 catches for 183 yards and 2 TDs in 2010. This means that he's scored 4 straight games against St. Louis. The Reality: Make that 5 straight games. It did not matter whether it was Smith or Kaepernick throwing the ball, Crabtree was getting his share of looks. He finished with 5 receptions for 70 yards and a TD.

Malcolm Floyd (Start) The Prophecy: The Chargers will take on the Buccaneers in Week 10, a team that has had trouble stopping wide receivers this season. They are averaging 27.9 Fantasy points against the Bucs this season as the Buccaneers rank #32 in our Pass Defense Power Rankings. The Buccaneers currently rank #32 in receiving yards allowed. The Buccaneers rank #30 against fantasy WRs. Consider Floyd a viable starting Fantasy option in most formats for the matchup. The Reality: As I already pointed out in discussing Rivers, the San Diego passing game looked just fine against the Bucs on Sunday. Floyd caught 6 of his 7 targets for 63 yards and a TD.

Cecil Shorts (Reward) The Prophecy: Because Shorts has made his living on big plays during this breakout season, you might think a low number of targets is the norm for him, but he was in double digits in his previous two games, but he fell flat on his face last week with Robinson back and Blackmon getting more targets. With the Colts D having given up 12 passing TDs to date, we see Shorts as a decent sleeper WR pick this week in deeper formats. The Reality: It seems like awhile ago now, since this was a Thursday nighter. However, Shorts finished the game with 105 yards and a score.

Steve Smith (Risk) The Prophecy: Smith is going to catch some passes this week against the Broncos. The guys is an incredible WR. In fact, he made an incredible catch for his touchdown last week against Washington. The problem is that he didn't necessarily rack up the yards expected against Washington's porous secondary. Being that he has only 1 TD on the season we wouldn't bet on a repeat this week. And if he can't find the end zone, he won't be a great play. The Reality: No end zone for Smith, who was targeted 7 times but caught just 1 pass for 19 yards.

Scott Chandler (Reward) The Prophecy: The Patriots rank #28 in our Pass Defense Power Rankings and #29 against fantasy TEs. Being that the Bills will need to pass early and often against the Pats high-powered offense, Chandler figures for a good match-up. Also keep in mind that he had four catches for 62 yards and two touchdowns against New England in Week 4, so he should be considered a potential starter in Week 10. The Reality: Chandler caught 5 passes for 65 yards and a TD. He came within inches of catching another TD pass on the play before Fitzpatrick's ill-fated interception.

Kyle Rudolph (Reward) The Prophecy: Looking toward Week 10 vs. Detroit, Rudolph managed just two catches for 8 yards Week 4 against the Lions. However, wide receiver Percy Harvin (ankle) might sit out Sunday, so that could mean more targets for Rudolph. In fact, we do expect him to catch a TD pass in a play-action situation as Detroit will likely sell out to try to stop the red hot Peterson. The Reality: Rudolph led the team in targets (9 of them), and finished the day with 7 receptions for 64 yards -- and a TD.

Brent Celek (Sit) The Prophecy: The Cowboys rank #4 in our Pass Defense Power Rankings and #3 in receiving TDs allowed. Celek has underwhelmed in recent weeks and that trend continued Monday night. He has just 12 catches for 112 yards in the last three games and has not score since Week 5. Michael Vick's struggles have hindered his value in Fantasy so owners with a more reliable option should consider keeping Celek reserved for Week 10 against the Cowboys. The Reality: Although we did not predict that Vick would get hurt, it did not seem to matter which QB was in there. Celek finished the game with just 3 receptions for 31 yards.

The Bad

These were all predictions on which we were a bit off.

Eli Manning (Reward) The Prophecy: Eli has struggled to even get to a modest 200 yards passing in recent weeks. of course, he has faced some very strong defenses, so the match-ups have been tough. In the last four games he has taken on the 49ers, Redskins, Cowboys and Steelers. of those four, only the Redskins could be considered a favorable match-up. We expect Eli to get back on the horse this week against the Bengals. Opposing QBs average about 260 passing yards per game against the Bengals. Also, over the last 3 games, the Bengals have allowed 6 TD passes. Looking at it that way, 260 passing yards and 2 TD passes would qualify Eli as a mid-tier starting fantasy QB this week. You should view him as such. The Reality: For fantasy owners, the Eli Manning situation has crossed the threshold now of being an absolute crisis situation. Against a Bengals defense that has been far from superb, Eli failed to get it into the endzone a single time and tossed 2 INTs.

Ryan Tannehill (Reward) The Prophecy:Tannehill has a strong matchup in Week 10, against a Titans team that has surrendered 20 touchdown passes and is allowing 282.7 passing yards per game. Assuming the knee holds up, Tannehill should be considered a low-end Fantasy option in deeper formats for Week 10. The Reality: Yea, well, that Tennessee-Miami game did NOT go an anticipated. Rather than a shootout, what we saw was a blowout. Tannehill struggled mightily with no TD passes and 3 INTs.

Sam Bradford (Sit) The Prophecy:As we predicted headed into the season, Bradford has been a weak fantasy performer in 2012. In fact, he has really only posted two really good fantasy performances this season: a 3-touchdown pass game way back in Week 2 against Washington and a 315-yard effort against the Dolphins where he failed to throw a TD pass). Otherwise, Bradford has been an after-thought in fantasy. When we last saw him against the Patriots (a defense against whom we thought he may have had some success), he barely managed to crack the 200-yard mark and tossed just 1 TD pass. Jeff Fisher is a bigger fan of running the ball, and you have to figure that will be the Rams' focus coming off their bye. Of great concern is the opponent this week, the 49ers, who are also coming off a bye. The 49ers rank #2 in our Pass Defense Power Rankings. They are also first in passing TDs allowed, #2 in passing yards allowed and #2 in fewest points allowed to fantasy QBs. Unless you are in a real bind and have no other choice, keep Bradford on your bench. The Reality: Bradford actually had a very good game against the 49ers with 275 passing yards and 2 TD passes. Bear in mind that he also had another 80-yard pass to Danny Amendola called back due to a penalty.

Chris Johnson (Risk) The Prophecy: At this point, Johnson is a borderline must-start, but temper expectations. He could still be fool's gold -- and takes on a Miami defense that ranks #3 in our Run Defense Power Rankings and is #3 in rushing yards allowed. The Reality: At least we did not suggest benching him, so hopefully this was more a case of reaping better benefits than you anticipated. On 23 carries, he finished with 126 yards and a TD. He also tacked on a couple of receptions for 8 more yards for good measure.

Victor Cruz (Reward) The Prophecy:Cruz remains a must-start Fantasy receiver in all formats for Week 10 at Cincinnati. The Reality: It is hard to suggest benching Cruz, but he has now had 3 lousy games in a row. Obviously as Eli has gone, so has gone the Giants' receivers. This a team that can really use their bye in Week 11.

Kenny Britt (Reward) The Prophecy: It looks like Locker will play this week, but being that the Dolphins rank #29 in our Pass Defense Power Rankings, #30 in receiving yards allowed, and #29 against fantasy WRs, Britt should be a good play. Britt's 67 yards last week represented a season high, and he seems to be steadily improving as he gets farther away from his lost 2011 season. Britt should be a nice flex-play or WR3 this week. The Reality: The Titans dominated the Dolphins, but ironically Britt played a very little role in the game. Just 2 catches for 36 yards.

Brandon Lloyd (Reward) The Prophecy:Lloyd has just three catches for 34 yards in his last two games, but two of those touchdowns have now gone for touchdowns, which is huge in Fantasy. Being that he scored a TD against Buffalo earlier this year and that Welker and Hernandez are dinged up, Lloyd should be a decent marginal WR2 or a really good flex option. The Reality: The Buffalo-New England game was a very unusual one. Despite putting up 37 points against the Bills, the Pats' offense was not overwhelming. In fact, 2 of their TDs were set up first and goal from the one yard-line due to questionable pass interference calls. Also an early turnover, set them up with a short field on which to score. So, while the Pats were effectively scoring, they were not having to consume large chunks of field and clock to do so -- the Bills wound up controlling the time of possession and far out-did the Pats in terms of yards. Case in point is Lloyd, who caught 5 passes for a harmless 45 yards.

Danny Amendola (Risk) The Prophecy: Amendola has been putting in limited practices over the past two weeks, but with the added benefit of teh extra bye last week to heal, he is fully expected to play in Week 10 against the 49ers. He has been Sam Bradford's most reliable target but has been out since Week 5. The good news is that he should see the bulk of targets in the passing game. The bad news is that his welcome back does come against a stout 49er defense that is tough on opposing WRs. Given the concerns about his being rusty after missing so much time and the tough match-up, we do not see him as anything better than a flex play in PPR formats this week. The Reality: No rust here. Amendola was a PPR stud Sunday with 11 receptions of 102 yards. As I already mentioned, he almost had another reception of 80 yards to add to the mix too.

Anthony Fasano (Reward) The Prophecy:Despite the fact that Fasano has just 2 catches for 12 yards the last two weeks he won't be a good bet in a PPR league. However, he should be a nice sleeper TE this week as he's scored 2 TDs the last 3 weeeks and faces a Titans defense that ranks #31 in receiving TDs allowed and #32 against fantasy TEs. We expect to see him catch another red zone TD this week. The Reality: Fasano slept through the game alright. Was he even there? Oh, he did catch one pass for 4 yards.

Dan Carpenter (Reward) The Prophecy: Carpenter is a nice sleeper play if your regular kicker is on a bye this week. The Titans rank #32 against fantasy Kickers. So while Carpenter missed four of his first 10 attempts this season, he has not missed a field-goal attempt since Week 5 and is hot of late. Being that the Dolphins will likely put up points in Week 10 against the Titans we consider him a viable kicking option this week. The Reality: Seeing a pattern here? That Tennessee-Miami game really did not go as forecast, and thus, we missed on a number of player, including Carpenter, whose contribution was a single field goal. It gets worse (see below)...

New York Giants Defense (Start) The Prophecy: The Giants defense is rolling of late. They rank 2nd in the NFL with 26 turnovers and 3rd with 25 sacks. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, the Bengals have allowed the 8th most sacks and Dalton has been picked off 11 times. The G-men should be a relevant fantasy D again this week. Start them in all formats. The Reality: Yea, not much good to say about the Giants' effort against the Bengals on Sunday. Any Dalton set a career high against them with 4 TD passes. Need I say more?

The Ugly

Undoubtedly many fantasy owners are slapping themselves this morning if they followed our advice on any of these plays in Week 10. Oh, if we only had a crystal ball!

Carson Palmer (Risk) The Prophecy: Palmer will need to get his turnovers under control or he could be in for a long day when the Raiders head out to Baltimore to face the Ravens in Week 10. While Palmer has shown flashes of his high-end potential, he should be considered more of a low-end option this week. The Reality: Palmer passed for 369 yards and 2 TD passes, as he was forced to air it out early and often against the Ravens. I should have made a better prediction on this one given that I knew that the Raiders' running backs were banged up and that Palmer would HAVE to throw.

Rashad Jennings (Start) The Prophecy:Jennings looks to be a sneaky good start this week. First, we already know that Maurice Jones-Drew will miss at least another week (and probably more than that) with his foot injury. That was the case last week too, but the Jags got down in the game early and were forced into pass-happy mode. On a per-touch basis, Jennings did fine. We expect the Jags to be much more competitive against the Colts this week, and expect the running game to be more on display. The Colts, meanwhile, present a most favorable match-up for Jennings and the Jags. Start him as a RB2 with confidence. The Reality: Nothing "sneaky good" here. And I promise to never use the word "condidence" and Rashad Jennings in the same sentence again. Against a porous Indy run defense, Jennings managed just 27 yards on 11 carries.

Reggie Bush (Start) The Prophecy: Although the Dolphins have played surprisingly well though the first half of the season, Reggie Bush has seen his touches drop week-by-week as Daniel Thomas has begun to eat into his production. Still, Bush remains the Dolphins' top rusher, and it makes sense not to over-work him. They key is that Miami is finding ways to use him effectively. So, even if he only sees, say, 15 carries per game, the probability is strong that he will manage 60-70 rushing yards -- and more in the passing game. He should have a good chance to find room to operate this week against the Titans. Tennessee has allowed 100 yards rushing in seven of nine games this season, and are surrendering 24.5 Fantasy points per game. The Titans currently rank #30 in rushing yards allowed and #30 in points allowed to fantasy RBs. We like him a s a solid RB2 this week. The Reality: Not much to say here. Bush was highly ineffective: just 4 carries for 21 yards (actually not a bad 7.0 yard average) and caught 1 pass for 8 yards. The issue was a really bad fumble that proved costly. In fact, Bush wound up riding the pine for much of the day and watched  Daniel Thomas get most of the carries.

Michael Turner (Reward) The Prophecy: The Saints have been dreadful defending the run thus far (170.1 ypg) and Turner has averaged 77.8 yard rushing and scored four TDs over eight career games against them. Continue to roll with Turner as a viable start in all formats this week. The Reality: If I were doing an All Villain Team, as I did a few weeks back, Turner would be the #1 selection. This was not a case, like Reggie Bush's were he simply did not get enough carries. Turner actually got 13 carries in the game -- but managed just 15 yards. He did not catch a pass, and when given multiple opportunities to score from short range could not get it done. If he couldn't give fantasy owners more than 1.5 points against a terrible Saints defense, it is going to be VERY hard trusting him moving forward.

Steven Jackson (Sit) The Prophecy: Are Jackson's days in St. Louis numbered? It certainly looks that way. There were rumors that he was on the trading block headed into the trade deadline that came and went last week. Jackson is expected to void the final year of his contract -- worth $7 million -- and explore the market. That may not be such a good idea, considering that he really has not done anything this season to merit excitement in free agency. He also turns 30 in the off-season, which is ancient in running back years. Jackson has yet to crack 80 rushing yards in a game this season and is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. The allure to Jackson in the preseason was that he was one of the few workhorse RBs left in the NFL. Not any more. SJAX has lost valuable carries to rookie Daryl Richardson. The shift to the younger player could be even more pronounced now after the Rams' Week 9 bye. Worse, the Rams take on the 49ers this week. The 49ers' defense ranks #1 in points allowed to fantasy RBs. Our best advice is to leave him on the bench. The Reality: Jackson had by far his biggest day of the year. The amazing thing is how involved he was in the offensive game plan: 31 total touches. He ran hard against the stout 49er defense, and finished with 127 total yards and a TD.

Sidney Rice (Sit) The Prophecy:Sidney Rice has scored TDs in 3 of the last 4 weeks and has elevated himself to a WR3 option. The problem with planning to play him this week is that the Jets rank #3 in our Pass Defense Power Rankings and #1 in fantasy points allowed to fantasy WRs. Don't plug him in and play him against the Jets who've grounded nearly all WRs to date. The Reality: OK, Rice (who is unowned in the vast majority of fantasy leagues) only caught 2 passes in the Seahawks win over the Jets on Sunday. But both receptions were huge, as they amounted to 54 yards and 2 TDs.

Jeremy Maclin (Sit) The Prophecy:After struggling with injuries in weeks 2-5, Maclin finally showed up against the Lions in week 6. However, he has been almost MIA since then with 8 catches for 61 yards. Adding insult, the Cowboys rank #4 in our Pass Defense Power Rankings, #3 in receiving TDs allowed, and #6 against fantasy WRs. With Michael Vick struggling and missing his top 3 OTs with season ending injuries, Maclin is not a good bet. The Reality: Maybe he was not a good bet, but he turned out to be a great start in fantasy. He caught 8 passes for 93 yards and a TD.

Vernon Davis (Start) The Prophecy: A bye week is a good time for a coach to reflect on his team and determine where they can improve. Where the 49ers can improve is to find a pass catching target to complement Crabtree. That should be Vernon Davis who started the year on fire and is now ice cold. Davis has had 3 or less catches and less than 38 yards in 3 of his last 4 games. We expect him to be more relevant in the pasing game this week and moving forward, so get Davis back in your lineup. The Reality: Even with the benfit of an extra full quarter to play, Davis did very little. He caught just 4 passes for 30 yards.

Greg Olsen (Risk) The Prophecy: With the Panthers enjoying more success on the ground, Olsen was held in check against Washington. This is disappointing as the Skins ranked 32nd in fantasy points allowed to TEs. This week Olsen has a shot at redemption against the Broncos 30th ranked D against fantasy TEs, but don't put too many eggs in this basket. You see, Olsen has scored just once this season and will be just a borderline Fantasy option for Week 10 against Denver. The Reality: Olsen was an absolute beast Sunday. He caught 9 of his 10 targets for 102 yards and a pair of TDs.

Connor Barth (Risk) The Prophecy: While his team has been busy putting up a lot of points of late, the Chargers rank #1 in field goals allowed and #2 in fantasy points allowed to fantasy Kickers. Furthermore, being that Barth is only 13 for 17 in field goals on the year, he's a shaky play. The Reality: Kickers are always so hard to predict, which is why we always suggest waiting until the last round to draft one. Barth kicked 2 field goals and 4 extra points against the Chargers on Sunday. The Bucs' offense has been highly productive the last several weeks, and Barth has been a major benefactor.

Chicago Bears Defense (Risk) The Prophecy:Da Bears have that Monsters of the Midway defense that ranks 1st in the NFL with 28 takeways through 9 games. That's more than 3 a game. They also rank 2nd in sacks per game. Therefore, you might wonder why we have them on this list. Well, the Texans rank 2nd in the NFL in fewest sacks allowed and have turned the ball over only 6 times. The Reality:Yea, well. We obviously tried to get too cute here. If you have the Bears D, start them EVERY week.

[thefantasyadvisor-blog]

Three Fantasy Studs Who Silenced Doubters in Week 8

One of the cardinal rules of fantasy football is to always start your fantasy studs - regardless of match-up.

But what if you are having your doubts about whether or not a particular guy (say, Matt Stafford), who you drafted as an elite fantasy player still qualifies as such?

What if a guy who HAS been a stud for you so far this year has been hit pretty hard by the injury bug? You know, someone like Trent Richardson.

What if a guy really has not been producing to the level you had hoped -- and to top it off faces a very difficult opponent the coming week? Steve Smith, anyone?

Last week we advised benching all three of these one-time fantasy studs. However, all three of them proved us wrong in Week 8. In fact, all three were top 5 fantasy performers at their respective positions -- and fantasy owners have to be understandably frustrated if they lost this week due (at least in part) to having benched any of them.

Hind-sight is always 20-20, but looking back our analysis seemed to have merit.

If you are a Matthew Stafford owner, then you know exactly how frustrating it has been trying roll with him every week. As we pointed out, Stafford was averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game but had thrown only 5 TD passes through the first 6 games to go along with 6 INTs. On a week-to-week basis, he ranked #16 among fantasy QBs heading into last week and no longer seemed worthy of an every-week start, we argued.

What's more, he was facing the Seahawks, who ranked #3 in points allowed to fantasy QBs and had given up the fewest passing TDs in the league. So our advising benching a player who was having trouble finding the end zone against a team that was tops in preventing passing TDs seemed reasonable, no?

Well, all Stafford did was post the best fantasy numbers of any QB this weekend. He passed for 352 yards, 3 TD passes and ran another one in for good measure. A guy whose confidence looked shot against the Bears last Monday night calmly led his team on a game-winning TD drive against the Seahawks, even as his top receiver, Calvin Johnson, was once again choking in the clutch.

This single performance was good enough to catapult Stafford into the top 10 of fantasy QBs after 8 weeks.

Last week Trent Richardson made it onto my Fantasy Villain list. Like the previous week, he had been limited in practice all week with a rib injury. Like the previous week, he was listed on the injury report as "Questionable". And like the previous week, he was a game-time decision.

When we received word that he would play in Week 7, we breathed a sigh of relief -- after all, he was getting a crack at the Colts, whose run defense was very near the bottom in the league. TRich responded with a meager 8 rushing yards in the first half -- and found his way onto the bench in the second half. So, it made perfect sense to be wary of the still injured Richardson in his Week 8 match-up against the Chargers' 2nd ranked run defense, right? Remember, the Chargers were also coming off their bye, so they even had an extra week to get rested and prepared.

That is not the way it worked out, of course. Richardson showed some real guts in pounding the ball between the tackles. He also exhibited toughness in fighting through arm tackles and even showed an occasional burst. When the smoke settled, he carried the rock 24 times for 122 yards -- both career highs. He scored a rushing TD and added a reception for 12 yards.

The rookie, a top performer already prior to the injury, earned the respect of his coaches and even the admiration of the great Jim Brown for his heroics in fighting through the painful injury on Sunday.

And then there is Steve Smith. The Carolina version, that is. Smith had not reached the 100-yard mark since Week 2. He has scored exactly the same number of TDs on the season as I have. (That would be ZERO.) His QB, Cam Newton, has appeared to be in the midst of a serious sophomore slump.

Furthermore, the Panthers were taking on the Chicago Bears, who just happen to have one of the best pass defenses in the league. Surely not a recipe for success for Smith, right?

Well, the only thing Smith didn't do was score a TD on Sunday (although he came VERY close). Newton showed no fear of top CB Charles Tillman, as he targeted Smith a whopping 16 times on Sunday, resulting in 7 receptions for 118 yards -- easily Smith's top fantasy performance of the year.

If we only had a crystal ball...