US warns Russia over Syria: Why we should all be worried
It’s just been announced that US Secretary of State John Kerry has warned his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, that cooperation over Syria will end unless Russia halts bombing of Aleppo.
Breaking news story at the BBC
On the face of it, this is seemingly a diplomatic threat, but this is actually far more serious than many may realize.
First of all, let’s talk about what’s happening over Aleppo right now.
There is a Humanitarian disaster taking place, with the Syrian government and their Russian allies reportedly hammering the city with weapons being used against civilians which will, absolutely, constitute a war crime.
I know there’s going to be Alex Jones fan boys and Putin cheer leaders screaming about “propaganda” and other such nonsense, but let’s make one thing absolutely clear here - the US has absolutely NO INTEREST in falsifying an attack on Aleppo, something no one denies is happening. The only parties able and willing to attack that city are Syria and Russia.
Even if Russia were not directly involved in attacking those people (there is plenty of evidence that they are, in fact, directly involved) they are supporting the regime targeting innocent civilians.
The only parties responsible for the attacks on Aleppo are Syria and Russia, no bullshit, no screams of “Waa! Propaganda!” from the usual Putin suck-up’s can remove these facts.
Now that’s out of the way...
This is all happening on the same day that prosecutors investigating the case of flight MH17 shot down over Ukraine released their findings that the weapon used was a BUK missile, and that it was transported to Ukraine from Russia.
It’s no coincidence that these things are happening on the same day. The US is under pressure to take action against a nation which has, in the past few years:
1. Invaded and annexed Crimea
2. Shot down a passenger jet murdering 298 people
3. Threatened several neighbouring nations with military movements
4. Encroached further in the occupied region of Georgia
5. Supported Syrian dictator Assad in his war against his own people, leading to increased instability, the forced movement of millions of refugees into Europe, and the targeting of innocent civilians and an aid convoy this past week.
So, what does it mean when a U.S. Secretary of State says that cooperation between nations in a place like Syria will end?
Don’t be thinking this simply means they won’t be talking to each other or working toward a ceasefire, it means a lot more than that.
Ending cooperation is almost a declaration of your intent to act militarily against those forces when you see fit.
This effectively means that Russia and the U.S. will no longer communicate over placement of resources, use of air-space, areas of interest or protection... it means the U.S. may decide tomorrow that Aleppo needs to be protected from attack, and begin shooting down any Syrian or Russian assets daring to come close.
It means that both Syrian and Russian troops, positions, planes and any other assets will no longer be deemed “friendly” even in the loosest terms.
When that cooperation is removed it’s almost a statement that you now deem their presence to be a potential threat to your interests and your positions. Where before a Russian jet might be given the benefit of doubt, without this cooperation it can and will be deemed a military threat to be neutralized.
Some might say that this needs to be done, that Russia needs to be told where it stands and not be given the freedom to act with impunity against innocent people in cities like Aleppo.
Unfortunately, things are not that simple.
Russia is already on the verge of being on a war footing with the rest of the world, and it has been for several years. Putin has done little but roll back on international involvement and cooperation. Instead of engaging with the world, Putin has preferred an isolationist approach, keeping the West at arms-length while internally the country devolves.
Instead of progressing on the path his predecessor laid out, increasing engagement with the West, deescalating and disarming, Putin has brought back various aspects of the former Soviet Union.
Even internally, within Russia itself, Putin has been taking his people backward with routine monitoring and arrest of political opponents, removal of rights for citizens, tight control of the media, adoption of laws preventing protest and discussion of political views, marginalization of minority groups, increased nationalist propaganda, restrictions on cultural activity in everything from art galleries to the theater...
Russia is, in many ways, already back to where it was before the collapse of the Soviet Union.
What can we expect now?
Russia will not want to be seen as weak, especially within the country itself. Culturally Russia is hyper-masculine, it’s unacceptable for any Russian politician to admit fault or to concede defeat in any respect.
Russia could simply halt all action over Aleppo after finding a political excuse (cover) for doing so, and allow the UN and partners to establish Humanitarian aid routes into the city.
It might be possible that Russia can heed this warning and simply say “this was our plan all along and you have not influenced us one bit”. It might not seem credible, but if it’s the only option to avoid an escalation then it would send a message to the U.S. that Russia isn’t really interested in direct confrontation.
However, if Russia ignores it, continues to act in Aleppo and doesn’t even come up with an excuse to allow them to disengage in the area, this would be a clear signal to the U.S. that Russia is ready and willing to fight.
Given that just in the last week Russia directly attacked a known Humanitarian convoy with barrel bombs then acted like a child with chocolate all over their face while sticking to the lie that they hadn’t touched the cookies, it’s unlikely Russia will heed this warning.
If Russia disengages, for any reason, in regard to Aleppo, it will allow us all to breathe at least a little sigh of relief that WW3 isn’t right around the corner.
If Russia or Syria continues to attack the city of Aleppo after this warning has been issued (which I sadly believe they will), it will send a clear message to Washington - and indeed the rest of the world - that Russia is prepared for an all-out military confrontation with the West. It will be confirmation of willingness. It will mean that a larger conflict between Russia and the West is a greater certainty than we expected just a week ago.
The next 48 hours are going to be interesting, to say the least.















