I've been catching up on some Podcasts, and I just listened to an oldish /Filmcast (obviously from the guys at /Film, great job guys) which largely centered around the issue of digital vs 35mm, or more accurately the transition from 35mm to digital, and how it’s is going to affect the industry.
One thing for certain we can agree on, is that it's going to affect the industry: fuckin heaps. In five years time cinema operations will be completely different.
There are a lot of traditionalists and people who just like the grainy 35mm look for nostalgic reasons and fair enough, each to their own. There will be a niche around forever, just like 16mm or super 8…
But the argument, in any way shape or form, that digital is going to cost the independent exhibition industry more in the long run I believe is completely wrong. It certainly has the potential to do so, and some maybe many cinemas will close because of it, but that is totally up to the way the theatre owners handle it.
Back in Australia when I was working in distribution, throughout the post-Avatar period, when digital cinema conversion went up about 20 notches, and I observed two ways in which the indie exhibitors handled their businesses:
They transferred all their 35mm operation structures to the running of digital cinemas i.e. nothing in the day-to-day cinema operations really changed except the materials they were screening off.
They completely changed the way their cinema(s) operated to best work with the new opportunities associated with digital exhibition (and I’ll just lightly add that most of these cinemas had someone young in management).
Then as the months progressed, those who were in category (1) would be constantly on the phone to us complaining about how there were so many extra costs associated with digital and that they would never make back the outlay associated with the installation (which FYI costs around $100k per auditorium, not cheap for an independent cinema).
And what was category (2) doing? They were constantly on the phone to us excitedly bragging about how fantastic their digital was, and how the operation costs were so much lower thanks to the way in which their digital cinemas are programmed. Also, that they would have paid off the outlay associated with the installation in a few years, and not only that, because of the smooth running of their business now, they were able to concentrate more on other areas of the business such as marketing and were starting to get more people through the doors.
It was a really sad thing to witness, as most of the guys who fit into category (1) had been running their cinemas the same way for 20 and 30 years and were set in their ways (and I’ll just lightly add that most of these cinemas had only old people in management…), they didn’t know how to completely turn things on their head, and didn’t think they needed to. It was just a change in film material to them. And obviously there is such tension between distribution and independent exhibition that you just don’t tell them how to run their business. You don’t go there. It’s a no go zone.
Independent Theatres have to realize themselves that it’s back to the drawing board once you install digital. Rewind and start again. Don’t listen to these industry veterans complaining cos they know fuck all. How could they? It’s a completely new technology! Embrace this new technology and you’ll end up realizing all these fantastic opportunities that weren’t there before. You may need to step back and look at the bigger picture a bit, but once it comes into focus the possibilities are pretty fuckin exciting.
And if any indie cinemas think they’re going to change anything they’re completely wrong. The studios are going to make this happen with or without them. It’s just simple maths. The guys in the /Filmcast touched on it:
35mm prints cost $2000 per screen,
Digital hard drives cost $200 per 10 or 20 screens.
So based on that studio accountants will look at their books and say (if they haven’t already), “we need to minimize supply of 35mm prints wherever possible”. And, in turn, that will filter down into the 35mm print labs who will start to charge more for print production to make back on costs, and then the studios accountants will see THAT and just say “we need to stop the supply of 35mm prints” and BOOM! No more 35mm.
Now projections are saying this will happen in 3 years time, but I believe this is already in the works… And it will snowball so fast, just like the digital installation did, and I believe it could happen in a lot of territories by the end of 2012. And if the USA is included in that then say goodbye, 35mm…
Look at it like this: 35mm is an old rich nursing home patient, digital cinema is the film estate, and the studios are the money-grabbing relatives… As soon as that patient goes into a coma, the money-grabbing relatives will be falling over themselves to pull the plug.
