Estimated Size of Quiver (ESoQ) Update
Now that the Predictor factors in Maternal Age, it's about time for a ESoQ Update. This Post gives the Non–Age Adjusted ESoQ (Non–AAESoQ) and the Age Adjusted ESoQ (AAESoQ), so it's easy to see the new variable's impact.
Without further ado, in alphabetical order...
Zach + Whitney Non–Age Adjusted ESoQ (Non–AAESoQ) is 10. Age Adjusted ESoQ (AAESoQ) is 9 (1 Less).
Michaela + Brandon Regardless of Age Adjustment, ESoQ is 0 (Due to Fertility Struggle).
Erin + Chad Regardless of Age Adjustment, ESoQ is 5 (Due to Erin's Ovarian Surgery).
Lawson + Tiffany Non–AAESoQ is 12. AAESoQ is 11 (1 Less).
Nathan + Esther Non–AAESoQ is 12. AAESoQ is 11 (1 Less).
Alyssa + John Non–AAESoQ is 16. AAESoQ is 14 (2 Less).
Tori + Bobby Non–AAESoQ is 19. AAESoQ is 17 (2 Less).
Trace + Lydia Non–AAESoQ is 11. AAESoQ is 10 (1 Less).
Carlin + Evan Non–AAESoQ is 12. AAESoQ is 10 (2 Less).
Josie + Kelton Non–AAESoQ is 16. AAESoQ is 14 (2 Less).
Katie + Travis Non–AAESoQ is 15. AAESoQ is 13 (2 Less).
Jackson + Emerson Non–AAESoQ is 14. AAESoQ is 13 (1 Less).
Younger Males Non–AAESoQ is 13 Each. AAESoQ is 12 Each (1 Less Each).
Younger Females Non–AAESoQ is 17 Each. AAESoQ is 15 Each (2 Less Each).
Based on Non–AAESoQs, Total Predicted Grands is 245. Adjusted for Maternal Age, it's 220 Grands (25 Less), or 11.6 Per Couple, on average.
...are no longer an active Predictor Family. Getting data for them has been harder and harder, and they've recently made it clear that many of the couples won't be sharing family updates.
Kendra + Joe Non–AAESoQ is 15. AAESoQ is 14 (1 Less).
Lauren Non–AAESoQ is 8. AAESoQ is 7 (1 Less).
Younger Males Non–AAESoQ is 10 Each. AAESoQ is 9 Each (1 Less Each).
Younger Females Non–AAESoQ is 10 Each. AAESoQ is 9 (1 Less Each).
Based on Non–AAESoQs, Total Predicted Grands is 93. Adjusted for Maternal Age, it's 84 Grands (9 Less), a rate of 9.3 Per Couple.
Josh + Anna Regardless of Age Adjustment, ESoQ is 7 (Due to Josh's Incarceration).
Jana Non–AAESoQ is 6. AAESoQ is 5 (1 Less).
John + Abbie Non–AAESoQ is 5. AAESoQ is 5 (No Change).
Jill + Derick Regardless of Age Adjustment, ESoQ is 3 (Due to Family Planning / Birth Control). If No Family Planning... Non–AAESoQ is 9. AAESoQ is 8 (1 Less).
Jessa + Ben Non–AAESoQ is 12. AAESoQ is 10 (2 Less).
Jinger + Jeremy Non–AAESoQ is 9. AAESoQ is 8 (1 Less).
Joe + Kendra Non–AAESoQ is 15. AAESoQ is 14 (1 Less).
Josiah + Lauren Non–AAESoQ is 8. AAESoQ is 7 (1 Less).
Joy + Austin Non–AAESoQ is 12. AAESoQ is 10 (2 Less).
Jed + Katey Non–AAESoQ is 10. AAESoQ is 9 (1 Less).
Jer + Hannah Based on Duggar Family Data, Non–AAESoQ is 14 and AAESoQ is 12 (2 Less).
Jason Non–AAESoQ is 11. AAESoQ is 10 (1 Less).
James Non–AAESoQ is 12. AAESoQ is 11 (1 Less).
Justin + Claire Non–AAESoQ is 8. AAESoQ is 7 (1 Less).
Younger Males Non–AAESoQ is 12 Each. AAESoQ is 11 Each (1 Less Each).
Younger Females Non–AAESoQ is 14 Each. AAESoQ is 13 Each (1 Less Each).
Based on Non–AAESoQs, Total Predicted Grands is 200. Adjusted for Maternal Age, it's 180 Grands (20 Less), a rate of 9.5 Per Couple.
Esther + John Shrader Non–AAESoQ is 14. AAESoQ is 14 (No Change).
Priscilla + David Waller Non–AAESoQ is 10. AAESoQ is 10 (No Change).
Anna + Josh Duggar Regardless of Age Adjustment, ESoQ is 7 (Due to Josh's Incarceration).
Nathan + Nurie (Rodrigues) Non–AAESoQ is 17. AAESoQ is 15 (2 Less).
David + Hannah (Reber) Non–AAESoQ is 12. AAESoQ is 11 (1 Less).
Based on Non–AAESoQs, Total Predicted Grands [from the Quiverfull Kellers] is 60. Adjusted for Maternal Age, it's 57 Grands (3 Less)—or, a rate of 11.4 Per Couple.
Nathan + Melanie Regardless of Age Adjustment, ESoQ is 7 (Fertility Cut–Off Already Reached).
Chris + Anna Marie Regardless of Age Adjustment, ESoQ is 6 (Due to Anna Marie's Cancer).
Sarah + Kory Regardless of Age Adjustment, ESoQ is 0 (Fertility Cut–Off is January 24th).
Joseph + Elissa Non–AAESoQ is 7. AAESoQ is 7 (No Change).
John + Chelsy Non–AAESoQ is 10. AAESoQ is 9 (1 Less).
Anna Elizabeth Non–AAESoQ is 6. AAESoQ is 5 (1 Less).
Jesse + Anna Patrice Non–AAESoQ is 7. AAESoQ is 6 (1 Less).
Mary Carol Non–AAESoQ is 7. AAESoQ is 7 (No Change).
Note—Like the Bontragers, several of the Maxwell Couples are very low–profile; however, they remain a Predictor Family, for now.
Based on Non–AAESoQs, Total Predicted Grands is 50. Adjusted for Maternal Age, it's 47 Grands (3 Less). Taking the average, that's 5.9 Per Couple (The Lowest Rate Among Predictor Families).
Nurie + Nathan Non–AAESoQ is 17. AAESoQ is 15 (2 Less).
Timothy David Non–AAESoQ is 14. AAESoQ is 12 (2 Less).
Kaylee + Jonathan Non–AAESoQ is 13. AAESoQ is 12 (1 Less).
Younger Males Non–AAESoQ is 14 Each. AAESoQ is 12 Each (2 Less Each).
Younger Females Non–AAESoQ is 13 Each. AAESoQ is 12 Each (1 Less Each).
Based on Non–AAESoQs, Total Predicted Grands is 177. Adjusted for Maternal Age, it's 158 Grands (19 Less)—an impressively high rate of 12.2 Per Couple (The Highest of The Predictor Families).
Rachel + Alan Busenitz Non–AAESoQ is 8. AAESoQ is 7 (1 Less).
Ruth + Ryan Bourlier Non–AAESoQ is 11. AAESoQ is 10 (1 Less).
Josiah + Abi (Rehm) Non–AAESoQ is 6. AAESoQ is 6 (No Change).
Bethany + Daniel Beasley Non–AAESoQ is 11. AAESoQ is 10 (1 Less).
Andrew + Kori (Knuth) Non–AAESoQ is 5. AAESoQ is 5 (No Change).
Elizabeth Joy Non–AAESoQ is 6. AAESoQ is 5 (1 Less).
Matt + Michelle (Kingery) Non–AAESoQ is 7. AAESoQ is 6 (1 Less).
Stephen Gerald Non–AAESoQ is 4. AAESoQ is 3 (1 Less).
Hannah + Jer Duggar Based on Wissmann Family Data, Non–AAESoQ is 11 and AAESoQ is 9 (2 Less).
Nathanael + Katrina (Sahlstrom) Non–AAESoQ is 10. AAESoQ is 10 (No Change).
Susanna, Alaythia, Charissa Non–AAESoQ is 11 Each. AAESoQ is 9 Each (2 Less Each).
Based on Non–AAESoQs, Total Predicted Grands is 112. Adjusted for Maternal Age, it's 98 Grands (14 Less), a rate of 7.5 Per Couple.
Meagan (Forsyth) + Bobby Ballinger Non–AAESoQ is 9. AAESoQ is 9 (No Change).
Karissa + Mandrae Collins Non–AAESoQ is 11. AAESoQ is 11 (No Change).
Sierra Jo + Mark Dominguez Non–AAESoQ is 11. AAESoQ is 11 (No Change).
Courtney + Christoper Rogers Non–AAESoQ is 14. AAESoQ is 14 (No Change).
Kristen + Justin Young Non–AAESoQ is 10. AAESoQ is 9 (1 Less).
Note that, even where there's "No Change" in the AAESoQ, there's a change in the dates each Pregnancy or Birth is anticipated, caused by the Age Adjustment. The reason the ESoQ didn't change is that, even with the Age Adjustment, the couple still had time to have the same number of children. Maybe their Final Child was due to arrive pretty far from the actual Fertility Cut–Off, but now it's due close to the Cut–Off, etc.