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[wmhockey]

Also, the concept of Will spending ten whole minutes strategizing Mack’s shot like he’s his personal caddie and trophy husband all at once, and them casually going double or nothing, because apparently $18.8 million is just their play money now, and then actually canning it is soooo 🚬

Newly rich, recklessly competitive, and blowing through their fortune while flirting and fucking around on a golf course like the world’s most insufferable young power couple.

[fabasten]

I honestly love Will but I feel like anything more than 10 would be an overpay, the fans would hate it and hate him because of it. I’m hoping 9-10. Puts him under a microscope any turnover or bad play that’s made if he goes for 12. The issue tho is Mack’s 18.8 because that does raise the price tag for him but it would be inflated

I understand what you're saying, and you raise a valid point about overpaying. If a contract is perceived as too high, it could definitely open up Will to a lot of criticism from Sharks fans & the NHL media at large. But it's important not to underpay him either. Let's dive in:

One of the issues right now is you have some people undereacting to the evolving market/rising cap and some people overreacting to it. This is why we're seeing a huge range of contract predictions for Will that range from $7m to $16m AAV.

The people who aren't paying attention to the cap (the ones who freaked out about Mack taking $18.8m) are only paying attention to the size of the number in comparison to other large contracts over the past few years. They aren't thinking in percentages or about how rapidly the cap is rising.

Then you have the people who are reeling from the Leo Carlsson offer sheet & making wild predictions about what comes next. (The Empty Netters guys just suggested a $16m AAV contract for Will.) And although I've already said that's way too high, you can sort of see how they arrived there if you look at Leo Carlsson's stats & think about Will's ceiling.

Before Carlsson, (BC? Lol) Evolving Hockey had Will at $10.1 x 8. But they were low on everyone, predicting Mack at $14.33 x 5 and Bedard at $10.8 x 6. (This says a lot about how much the landscape has changed.) I personally had Will in the $8-10m range before Carlsson.

Post-Carlsson, I've changed my projection to $10-12m. For the player Will already is, even if you don't think his ceiling is as high as some do, $10m is fair. He's on the top line with your superstar 1C & he's an important part of PP1. $10m would be 8.8% of the 2027-28 salary cap (first season of his contract).

But maybe, if you're San Jose, you have more faith in the kind of player Will *could* be. Maybe paying him a little more gives him some confidence that they have faith in him & value him as part of their core group. Giving him more now also makes him much more likely to sign for 5 years. Will could wait & bet on himself, or he could take a bridge deal.

Slightly overpaying him now isn't the worst thing ever, because by the time his contract is up he'll be an absolute steal. It's also worth noting that Will is part of an extremely popular duo, and that in and of itself has value.

One last point, and then I'll shut up. Like you brought up, they just gave Mack $18.8m. And yes, it's deserved, and yes, Mack has already proven himself. But if you give Will something like $9.4, you're essentially saying you think he's half the player/half the value of Mack.

So taking all that into consideration (and sure we may as well also bring up the cost of living in California & the high taxes), $10m starts to feel too low. By the end of Will's contract, it would only be about 7% of the cap (assuming a modest 5% rise from 2029 on). 1st-line wingers make about 8-12% of the cap, more for the most elite players.

Is $12m too high? Yes, it's too high *now*. But in the 2031/32 season it'll only be 8.5% of the cap. And if Will does what a lot of us out there are expecting him to do and becomes a point per game+ player who's consistently getting 30+ goals, $12m AAV would be a massive underpay.

Maybe the answer lies somewhere in the middle, though, and Will ends up getting $11.2 AAV. That brings the Willmack total to $30m AAV, about 26.4% of next year's salary cap. Considering where the bulk of the point production is coming from on the Sharks, that seems perfectly fair to me.

So this is my very long-winded explanation of why I'm consistently falling in that $10-12m range for Will, and why since the Carlsson deal/Mack's extension I'm leaning more towards $12. He's going to hear criticism no matter what he does, let's be realistic. But I think if he gets $11-12m he'll work his ass off every day to prove that he deserves it.

Thanks for the ask! 💜

[sleepy-hyperfixations]

Mack get up...get up rn.... MACK

[ohgodshutit]

i love how this is will trying to reprimand mack. stick tapping his leg, patting his tummy, knocking him, but all mack could think is “will touched me! will touched me!!!”

[fabasten]

Just gotta say I loved the breakdown of your reasoning with Will’s contract length and the pay the Sharks will potentially give him. I always love your breakdowns though.

I just wanna say, as it seems to be a common thing now, so many people including a lot of sharks fans seem to underestimate Will’s ability and his potential.

He definitely has areas he needs to work on, as I’m sure he is aware of, but seems to be his biggest crime is being on the same team and the same line as Mack. I say this as he seems to be the one they always compare him to.

I’m looking forward to seeing what next season is like the team, but also I’d love Will to quieten the critics

Thank you! 💜

Yeah I feel like I've become one of the generals in Will's Avenging Army, but I'm not doing it because I think he's cute or I like the whimsy of Willmack or I was a fan of his college hockey.

I genuinely think Will is talented & believe he's a critical part of the Sharks' rebuild. I do think he suffers from constant comparisons to Mack. In fact, I *know* he does. I periodically listen to podcasts for other teams, and they talk about some of their developing players FAR more favorably than most Sharks' podcasters talk about Will. And these are guys who have nowhere near the stats or the talent Will has.

The funny thing is, these are the same guys who are projecting Will to remain on the top line with Mack this upcoming season. Like, it's not even questioned, it's assumed. They'll argue about where to put Toff or Graf or Sherwood, they'll have heated discussions about whether Misa is ready to be 2C or if he still belongs at 3C, but Will staying with Mack is literally not even addressed.

So it's frustrating. You're admitting Will has 1st line talent, you're talking about how good his chemistry is with Mack, you're acknowledging he was the 2nd highest scorer on the team. But when talk of his salary comes up, suddenly it's "well $8m is more than fair, we can't overpay Will Smith".

Yes, as you said, he has areas he needs to work on. No, he hasn't hit his ceiling yet. But he's a key piece of this team's future, and anyone who doesn't acknowledge that hasn't been paying attention.

Edited to add: I did a long in-depth analysis of Will's development here if anyone is interested

[burger3316271]

🐰🐰🐰🐰🐰🥰🥰🥰🥰🫶🫶🫶🫶

[blackberrygingerale]

Mack’s sitting demurely by the pool bc he wants to watch Will

Will’s messing around in the pool bc he wants to show off for Mack

[eevieurs]

lol. lmao even because what if we went to a party for the dog of someone i see maybe once a year this summer because even though you were busy training since the season ended you’ve still taken weeks off to come home with me and spend your every waking hour with me and so you said yes and you drove out there with me after we woke up in the same bed under the same sleep rumpled sheets with our hands in each other’s hair and we matched shorts because i saw an ad for them on tiktok and thought of you and bought you a smaller size and we laughed because it looked so tight and then i put my hat on the dog and you smiled and put your sunglasses on him too and then i took off my shirt and everyone could see the pendants on my chain and the new one i have with your number engraved and then you sat with these girls you just met today chatting away with them and i felt so proud of you for trying so hard to belong in my world even though you don’t know that you are my whole entire world and i fucked around in the pool with my friends and then turned back and looked at you and you smiled at me. what if that happened.

[accurateangel666]

Imagining Will making the “I’m only friends with u cuz ur parents are paying me” joke sometime early on in their friendship and Mack actually freaking out because that is something Rick Celebrini would do

[sisiwsmc]

At this point I am running out of things to rpf about. Whats left? Will did go to Van, they did go out on little day dates as Mack showed him his home town, they did ignore everyone around them when they were training, they did wear each others clothes, Will did take over as the driver of Mack’s car two days in, Mack did follow Will back to Boston, when the big contract news dropped Will did post a photo of them holding each other with moneybags, and Will did skip shoulder check to train with Mack, Mack did go to Grace Smith’s friend’s dog’s birthday party in matching striped pastel shorts with Will, and yeah, they probably are staying at the Smith Cape Cod house. What else is there to rpf about?? Our job has been taken guys

[darkpurple12]

Okay but it’s kinda cute that Will stopped with the bullying of rj right after Mack did 😭. Didn’t want to overstep 😭

[idoloverainsm]

my favorite willmack rpf thought is everyone expects will to be jealous of mack and his success and all the attention he gets but will isn't even a little jealous; he enjoys being mack's friend so much that it doesn't even occur to him that there is a competition. he cares about hockey yes but and he wants to get better but not to beat mack, he wants to get better just because he knows he can. and that's what I love about will so much. he wants great things he loves the game he loves playing but deep down he knows all of that is bullshit without real connections. and hockey is fun but he knows life is much much more than that. it's about having a favorite person and a favorite restaurant, it's about stupid movies and bannana breads and christmas and it's about planning everything so meticulously you make everyone around you shocked.

[jjudithh]

Will, you lucky bastard, you'll never pay a bill again in your life.

[lestappka]

[sharkiemackie]

Ok but having their initials smashed together was cutesy, this however is actually insane

[ce-jay]

the biggest willmack shipper on earth is actually will himself and you can’t tell me otherwise

[wshbrigade]

Are you actually a fan of Will if you automatically assume he didn’t want to go to a voluntary charity hockey game with some of his closest friends because he “suddenly didn’t want to?”