Oh, I agree with all my heart.
Jason and Bruce were doomed as parent and child. Bruce didn't connect that deeply with Jason, in part because of who he is (emotionally constipated but also he is a ridiculously rich guy with all the privileges), in part because he didn't know how to (again emotionally constipated). Jason, on the other hand, had many problems and trauma that they were never acknowledged (living alone at that age, caring for a sick parent and then watching them die, knowing that one parent was in jail and unable to provide for all of them, etc...) that Bruce himself didn't know he had to acknowledge and it could be summarised in "the kid needed safety and a therapist, not a training regime to punch criminals every night".
Jason ran away in search for his mother because Bruce was unable to show him and tell him that he would always have a place in his home, since he adopted Jason. He first said "I'm not your father", then there is Garzonas's death and Bruce losing trust on Jason, then there is him benching Jason because Jason himself is at danger (Bruce and Alfred have a conversation about Jason being suicidal, at least passively as in "he doesn't care if he dies"). There were multiple times where Bruce, as the adult in the relationship, should have stepped up and comforted Jason of his place and of his love. He didn't and Jason left with the knowledge that if he didn't find a plan B he was going to lose everything. And that's speculation on the fan part, since there wasn't written in the comics. We made an assumption based on how Jason became Robin, how Bruce fired Dick and the mistakes he repeated with Jason.
If there wasn't the Joker in Ethiopia, Jason would have tried to stay with Sheila (who probably didn't know how to answer that, but an opportunity to get Bruce Wayne's money? who knows. Very likely he would have his heart broken twice because Sheila probably didn't want to be a mother and because of her crimes).
Jason himself wanted to go to college, maybe be a doctor (he probably didn't see himself as being a vigilante for all of his life), he would have left but not entirely, the definitive break on their relationship would have been on Bruce's part.
Why? Bruce's first priority would always be the mission, if Jason wasn't there as Robin, but if he was in another state, studying, and maybe coming back for the holidays, their relationship would naturally break because Bruce would focus on the Mission. He would miss Jason, as he did with Dick, but he wouldn't call him, as he did with Dick, he would have met another boy who would impress him as Dick and Jason did and start mentoring him because he needs a partner, because he cannot connect with others outside of Batman.
And Jason, if we take that:
- he stopped being Robin,
- moved far away to study in college,
- came home only to visit Alfred and probably Dick and Barbara,
wouldn't be able to connect with Bruce as he did in his first years, he would see another kid replacing him as Robin as he did with Dick and the story will repeat. There would be resentment because the situation in Gotham would have stayed the same.
And last, Jason would have been happier away from Gotham. This is something I believe, he would have been happier away from Gotham. He is a bleeding heart, seeing all those people suffer repeatedly and seeing how Justice, the Law and the System didn't do anything to help and to protect them, he would have suffered as well, with plenty of arguments with Bruce who is a monolith about how things should be done.
Bruce, seeing how even Jason is happier away from him, would emphasize the distance, leading to the two of them estranged as father and child, as partners.
And Bruce can only blame himself for being unable to understand Jason enough to stop him from leaving.
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