must be hard only having questions @jorgeborges - Tumblr Blog

st-just

ngl this is shocking enough it took me a few seconds to be sure I was parsing it correctly.

#that is jaw dropping #i looked up indias weekly heart deaths and it's around 30000 in a billion person country

faulsimon

how do you feel about your hometown

love it/never wanna leave (still live there)

mid/whatever (still live there)

hate it (still live there)

love it/miss it (don't live there)

mid/whatever (don't live there)

hate it/good riddance (don't live there)

im bald

Voting ended onJul 15

saw a post that made me wonder this. please tag with your thoughts im curious!!

#compicated :(#i love san francisco deeply even if the only thing anyone else knows about it is tech bros

helenvaughans

i think the normalization of gambling is one of the most deeply evil things currently happening in american society, and it goes without saying that there is some STIFF competition in that department……..

helenvaughans

going through the replies on tweets related to this and it’s crazy the number of replies that are trying to minimize or dismiss this. i think it’s a combo of sports betting industry-planted bots and also people who probably bet themselves, but please PLEASE remember that a gambling addiction (which all this shit is DEEPLY enabling of!!!) can totally fucking ruin your life!!!

#global problem and i fucking hate it #i just want to watch a world cup match at a bar drink a pint and have fun cheering #why do you need to make it a commercial fucking endeavor

was not familiar with dearborn michigan's game, their muslim socialist mayor is in fact hotter than nyc's

#my beautiful hometown of san francisco does not have hot people init. so we cannot participate.

stele3

I don’t know that people understand that we are living thru one of the most drastic changes in the history of our species.

Across all regions, child mortality has plummeted. This has global implications for psychology, politics, ecology, EVERYTHING. And we’re all just kinda…living thru it.

rjc1993

This is also likely the single biggest cause of declining fertility rates: when you have a very high chance of seeing your children reach adulthood you have less of a reason to have large numbers of them. There are probably other things that have pushed fertility below replacement rates in developed countries, but declining child mortality can definitely explain the drop from 7+ kids to approximately 2-3 kids per woman.

jorgeborges

it's not just developed countries; india's child mortality dropped 79% since 1990 and also already has a fertility rate below replacement rate (fertility rates which, for most countries, are actually now 1-2 children per women, not 2-3). in fact, more than half of the countries on earth and over 70% of the women have gone through the demographic transition.

i just want to correct the record since i believe a lot of well-meaning people still sort of believe in the "underdeveloped brown hordes with broods of children" thing without interrogating it; this is very much a global phenomenon. india, bangladesh, mexico, china, morocco, all broke the wheel and are very much at either replacement rate or below it. there is only one continent left with fertility rates above replacement and africa is already about to begin its own decline.

stele3

Oh yes, that's very much the case.

Above is a look at the historical, global decline in child mortality dating back to 300 BCE.

Here's a link to the chart-making tool that I took a snapshot of before, except this time it's India.

Everywhere, in every country, child mortality has dropped significantly. This is a species-wide phenomenon.

jorgeborges

sorry, i specifically meant that the "dropping fertility rates" half is also a global phenomenon. most demographic economists link the two in a concept known as the demographic transition (mortality rates fall first while birth rates remain at the level they used to before, creating a "baby boom". then birth rates fall precipitously, and as the baby boom generation moves up the age pyramid, the population of the country starts aging fast.) lots of reasons for why, many of which are very very good (fewer child marriages! women have more freedom!) but this phenomenon has happened or has already begun in almost every single place on earth.

(figure from the UN. 2.1 is replacement rate.

for some quick math to maybe make the "fertility rate" stuff more legible for people, since log stuff is always hard for people to grasp, a fertility rate of 1.5 children per average women, around where the US is at right now, will lead to an immigration-less country having half the population it started with in ~70 years. the span of a human lifetime. we are at the precipice of a brave new world!)

#i also want to be soooo soooo clear i see no problem with this fact. i just think most people have never heard it #explained to them like that. like specifically with the exponential decay math done for them #and of course this is all tied so deeply into the politics of immigration and anxieties about it

stele3

I don’t know that people understand that we are living thru one of the most drastic changes in the history of our species.

Across all regions, child mortality has plummeted. This has global implications for psychology, politics, ecology, EVERYTHING. And we’re all just kinda…living thru it.

rjc1993

This is also likely the single biggest cause of declining fertility rates: when you have a very high chance of seeing your children reach adulthood you have less of a reason to have large numbers of them. There are probably other things that have pushed fertility below replacement rates in developed countries, but declining child mortality can definitely explain the drop from 7+ kids to approximately 2-3 kids per woman.

jorgeborges

it's not just developed countries; india's child mortality dropped 79% since 1990 and also already has a fertility rate below replacement rate (fertility rates which, for most countries, are actually now 1-2 children per women, not 2-3). in fact, more than half of the countries on earth and over 70% of the women have gone through the demographic transition.

i just want to correct the record since i believe a lot of well-meaning people still sort of believe in the "underdeveloped brown hordes with broods of children" thing without interrogating it; this is very much a global phenomenon. india, bangladesh, mexico, china, morocco, all broke the wheel and are very much at either replacement rate or below it. there is only one continent left with fertility rates above replacement and africa is already about to begin its own decline.

#all very intimately connected with the economics and politics of migration which is what i actually do #but my grandmother was one of 7 in bangladesh and my mom was an only child in india. the transition hit hard and fast everywhere #not just the globally rich countries #econ tag

cleverwordsandotherstuffilike

#art

jorgeborges

guys im so close to being done with my masters thesis and then i can READ BOOKS AGAINNNNNNN. does anyone have recommendations. i havent finished a book in six months

jorgeborges

hi :) you are speaking to a Master of Refugee Wage Assimilation in a High Skill High Labor Mobility Context: Evidence from Slovakia

aomitois

rb and tag your favorite song that's not in english, japanese or korean

#obak bhalobasha :)

guys im so close to being done with my masters thesis and then i can READ BOOKS AGAINNNNNNN. does anyone have recommendations. i havent finished a book in six months

#i have been forced to learn so much about the country of slovakia that i am actively mad about it #like. why can i list all eight of their kraje #i cannot reliably verbally list all 50 states without missing one