Someday a Turtle Will Learn How to Fly @lilyhandmaiden - Tumblr Blog

Jul 24

My Great Big, Very Long Rings of Power Season 3 Prediction/Speculation Post

The following is my Great Big, Very Long Prediction/Speculation Post for The Rings of Power season 3 ahead of their SDCC panel. I may add to this with modified theories and ideas as more information about the season comes out. I mainly want it as a record to check against as the season airs.

But this is probably the version I’ll use as a basis for fanfic between now and November 11, so if you think you might want to read that fic and don’t want to be spoiled, don’t read this. But if you want to read that fanfic and DO want to be spoiled, let me know which of the plot options below you might like to read! I've divided it more or less by plotline.

Sauron and the Naznagol

I think the look we’ve seen for Sauron so far will be his “home base” aspect, but I think he will change his appearance a few times throughout the season as he travels to different regions to dole out Rings For Men™. I think one of the first scenes, if not the first scene of the season will feature Sauron among a group of humans we haven’t seen before—I’m going to bet that it’s the Éotheod or whatever proto-Rohan is in this period—offering a Ring to one of their lords. Or it could be Khamul. We will then see the beginning of that man’s wraithification process through a time lapse or series of flash forwards.

I do think the main Naznagol we’ll follow this season is Khamul, and we’ll see him becoming more horrified as his wraithification progresses. I think the Naznagol appearances will at first be very individual and culturally-specific, but as the series goes on beyond season 3, they will become more and more the uniform nonentities that the Nazgul are.

Fingers crossed for one (1) female Naznagol, but I dare not hope for more.

By the start of the season’s timeline proper, I’m guessing Sauron has given out four or five Rings For Men. His armies of Uruk are fighting the Elves under his command, but he is not physically present at these encounters. He has Rings business, and he isn’t going to expose himself to his enemies. The Elves are probably very frustrated that Sauron is hiding himself away and it’s been years since they’ve seen him. But his armies have kept them on the defensive, and they don’t have the strength to successfully enter Mordor.

I predict that, probably in the first episode, one or more of the existing Naznagol will appear in battle for the first time, and they Elves will be like, what the fuck is that. They might not be wraiths yet, but they probably have enhanced strength/senses/bad vibes etc. from the Rings. Perhaps they notice that the Naznagol are targeting the Rings. Regardless, I think this is what prompts them to split up for the majority of, if not the entire rest of the season. They need to seek allies, and it’s also increasingly clear that they need to split up the Rings so that they don’t all fall into Sauron’s hands at once. Círdan will stay to defend either Rivendell or Lindon. Elrond and Gil-Galad will go east to Númenor. And Galadriel and Arondir will go west. (I just want to brag that this was a prediction I made before the leaked production pictures, except I was surprised that Gil-Galad went with Elrond.)

Círdan

I believe Lindon will be under threat at some point in the season; I’d say it will definitely fall, with only the Grey Havens still standing, but I want to leave room for Elendil et al. to find refuge there at the end of next season. But I do think we’ll see more of Círdan as he leads the home defenses. We will see what that experience does to his relationship to his Ring.

Númenor

I have more questions than predictions re: the Númenor plot.

I think Isildur will have been imprisoned all this time, and maybe has made friends with Míriel, although it’s also possible Míriel is being held in her father’s tower while Isildur is in actual jail.

I think that Elendil will have reunited with Anarion, but there will still be lots of tension between them.

I think the Faithful, led by Isildur and Anarion, will be defending their enclave and leading guerilla attacks on the King’s Men, but they don’t have the numbers yet to mount a full attack on the throne/palace/capital.

I think Elrond and Gil-Galad will of course favor the Faithful, but will look for help from both factions, and that at some point they will land on opposing sides in seeking an alliance to help them in Middle Earth. But who will be on which side? Will Elrond side with the Faithful because they best uphold his brother’s legacy, or will he see the expedience of allying with Pharazôn and the party in power? Will Gil-Galad gravitate toward the political power of a fellow king, or will he find the prevailing hatred for the Elves as offensive as Galadriel did and take solace in the Faithful?

And that’s not even considering what would possibly drive Pharazon to ally with the Elves. Would the idea of them being beholden to him appeal? Would they promise him territory in Middle Earth? Would the possibility of defeating Sauron be enough to overcome his Elf aversion? Some combination of these?

But it’s also worth considering that maybe he won’t agree to ally with them at all. Maybe he’ll take the intelligence they give him and head off independently to Middle Earth with the goal of getting one over on the Elves by capturing Sauron, not with them, but instead of them.

It will be very interesting to see Elrond among his brother’s people and kin—how he treats them and how they treat him. I think Elendil will be a bit in awe at first. I also project that we’ll get a scene where Pharazon says something to the effect that Elrond was the brother who chose correctly by choosing immortality.

Will Eärien double down with the King’s Men? Or will learning Isildur is alive soften her heart? Could she actually become a spy/go-between for Elendil? I want to believe she’ll turn it around, but I have doubts.

With pictures indicating that Pharazon will go to Middle Earth and Elendil/Miriel will not, I wonder if the Faithful will take advantage of the king’s absence and the reduced armed forces there to mount an attack on the capital/palace and, if not usurp the throne, at the very least rescue Miriel. I hope Miriel and Elendil kiss! And that could also be when Elendil finds out Isildur is alive and they have a heartwarming reunion!

A final note on Gil-Galad: will he be actively trying to avoid Mordor at this point so as to forestall his death? I could see him testing the possibility of thwarting the visions from Vilya, and Numenor is a great place to do that, just as it is a great place for Elrond to expand his kindness in the face of moral ambiguity, his persuasive abilities, and his political savvy.

Road Trip with Galadriel and Arondir (and Friends)

What makes most sense to me is that Galadriel and Arondir would head to the Greenwood to seek help there, since that is Arondir’s home. I know there have been leaks that say we won’t see Oropher and Thranduil this season, but I want to leave room for the possibility that they do go to the Greenwood after all, or at least start out with that destination in mind. Maybe Oropher and Thranduil have been kept extra super secret. Maybe Galadriel and Arondir get to the Greenwood but never get to see the king because they are immediately imprisoned or attacked by someone/something. Maybe they are waylaid before they get there.

I think (hope!) that they will cross the mountains through Khazad-Dûm, use the “mellon” password at the Doors of Durin, and meet Durin and Disa. But, if that is the case, I think they will find it much more difficult to cross back through on the way home due to what’s going on with the Dwarves.

Galadriel is in the process of falling back in love with Middle Earth and learning that fellowship is better than isolation. I think Arondir will help with this—they can talk about Beleriand, their suicidal tendencies, their respective widowhoods. Arondir probably remembers Celeborn, and they can talk about him to foreshadow his eventual reappearance. But I also think a couple episodes of their journey will basically be a Tour of the Wonders of Middle Earth. During this period, I think/hope they will encounter: Ents (hopefully Fangorn, known fan of Galadriel and Celeborn) (this would also connect back to Arondir’s meeting with/promise to the Ents in season 2) and Halflings (Harfoots, Fallohides, or both) (this makes sense geographically if they are going in the direction of the Greenwood and east from there).

At the same time, I do think they will be being tailed by one or more Naznagol. Throughout the season, I think Galadriel will be finding out more of what Nenya can do and learning to control it, but she will also be getting disturbing visions of Sauron and/or the Naznagol that she is reluctant to share or deal with. This could simply come from Nenya. But I’m not entirely ready to dismiss the idea that it’s significant that Sauron ended up in possession of some of her blood. I can also see a scenario where the wound from Morgoth’s crown could give her special insight into the Shadow Realm the Naznagol are falling into—so she could potentially see how many, where they are, when a new one gets made, etc. If Gil-Galad and Elrond together couldn’t heal that wound, I’m not sure what will, but I could see her continually having to re-heal herself with Nenya in secret. I’m not sure how that would play out when Sauron finally forges the One and she has to take Nenya off, however.

Leaks indicate that Galadriel and Arondir will be accompanied by a new Uruk character (let’s call him Nuruk) on their road trip. Maybe they will capture him or he will surrender to them at the beginning of the season, or maybe somewhere on the road, or maybe in the dungeons of the Greenwood. Regardless, my guess is that he is disgruntled under Sauron and comes with intelligence: Sauron is in the East, and so are a couple of Istar. (Of course, if they come across Nori and Poppy, they could also relay this information.) This of course redirects Galadriel and Arondir’s plans.

My hope is that, by the end of the season, Galadriel will meet up with Gandalf—and possibly recognize him from Valinor days, thereby filling in some gaps in his biography. The Empire snippets indicate that Gandalf’s arc this season involves his power of bringing people (and peoples) together, and this dovetails nicely with Galadriel’s trajectory away from isolation and toward fellowship.

And, to cap off her road trip of personal growth, she will encounter one more wonder: Celeborn. I could maybe see this happening somewhere along the road, and I can’t discount the possibility that he’s in the Greenwood, should they go there, but it makes most sense to me for him to be at the climax of Galadriel’s journey, and if the rest of my predictions are on the right track, that means Rhun.

As far as Galadriel’s reaction to being reunited with Celeborn, I think it will be disbelief at first. I think she will come at him with a weapon, convinced he’s a trick or an illusion. I could see her perceiving that they’re being followed, thinking it’s a Naznagol, subduing the pursuer, throwing back his hood, discovering her long-lost husband, and still keeping that sword right at his throat until he proves his identity somehow.

I liked the theory that Celeborn had maybe lost his memory somehow and Galadriel would heal him with Nenya, but it seems, based on the Empire snippets, that he has been yearning all this time, so the only other explanations for his absence I can think of are: imprisonment; oath fulfillment; thinks Galadriel is dead (which would require him to have been in Rhun for some time because she’s kind of famous and important in the western regions). Not sure which option is correct, but there is still the chance that healing with Nenya will be required.

I’m not sure what Arondir’s role will be once Galadriel and Celeborn make him a third wheel. I imagine their reunion will be very bittersweet for him: he’ll be happy for his friend but devastated because he’s lost Bronwyn forever. To be honest, I fear greatly for Arondir’s life this season. But I imagine the reset of his storyline will involve bonding with Nuruk, bringing him at least to the place Galadriel got to with Adar at the end of season 2. This will be difficult for him, since at least two of his many promises involve killing a lot of Uruk.

As for Nuruk: I am intrigued by the Empire teaser that Sauron will be corrupting Men, Elves, and Orcs. Like, how much more can he corrupt them? Would he tempt an Uruk with a Ring, or the promise of one? And if so, what kind of Ring—certainly not a Ring For Men. But since Uruk are related to Elves, I could see him dangling the possibility of an Elven Ring. He will of course have no intention of fulfilling this promise, but might it be enough to persuade Nuruk to betray his new Elven traveling companions, especially the Ringbearer?

Gandalf

I think Gandalf, with Tom Bombadill perhaps prompting him, will bring together an alliance against the Blue Wizard in Rhun. Maybe even a sort of proto-Last Alliance that includes Men and Elves. I think Khamul will be the leader of one such group. I think the Gaudrim and Mystics will join up eventually. And I think Celeborn will be there, heading up a group of Elves. Why are those Elves there? I don’t know. But this puts Celeborn where he needs to be to reunite with Galadriel, bond with Gandalf, and puts him in a position to have intense scenes with Sauron, as leaks indicate he will, before Galadriel even shows up. Because…

During my last TRoP rewatch, I started to think about Tom Bombadil’s saying that Gandalf would have to face both the Blue Wizard and Sauron, and concluded that Gandalf’s confrontation with Sauron would have to be direct and personal. And the most compelling way for him to face them would be not one after the other, but simultaneously. Especially if he does not know that is what is happening. The more information that comes out, the more I think I am correct that Sauron is going to insinuate himself into Gandalf’s alliance as a guy who can help—maybe even another wizard—and hey, he has these magic Rings. For Men. For Khamul. For the leader of the Gaudrim, maybe. If Celeborn wants one, well, this guy has a lead on some Elven Rings that he’s working on reacquiring. Hey, maybe the second Blue Wizard will even be Sauron in disguise.

When Gandalf finds out he is the latest to fall for Sauron doing his thing—after they manage to take out the threat of the Dark/Blue Wizard, of course—he will feel immensely betrayed. But it will give him a bond with Galadriel (and give Celeborn insight into what Galadriel went through).

I’m not sure where the Mumak Gandalf is standing in front of in the alternate Empire cover art comes from, unless the Haradrim join Gandalf’s alliance. Maybe the other Blue Wizard is/has been there? But also maybe Sauron comes up from Harad—it is close to Mordor, after all—perhaps with a Haradrim Naznagol. And how cool would it be if Sauron, the Naznagol, or both came in riding a Mumak?

Another guess: Gandalf or Galadriel/Nenya will be able to heal the Gaudrim of whatever is up with their faces.

Another speculation: I'm reading the part of the History of LotR where Tolkien originally conceived of the Witch King as a Wizard. Could the Blue Wizard be the Witch King? He's not a Man, but Gandalf isn't an Elf and he gets an Elf ring eventually, so...

Dwarves

I’m not sure how far Durin’s brother’s claim will have advanced since last season, but I know that a key issue in it will be the Dwarven Rings. I would guess that, by this point, Durin’s brother (let’s call him Nurin) has formed an alliance of Dwarf Lords (perhaps assembling at Gundabad) who know about the Rings and want to claim theirs as promised.

Durin, having seen what they can do, is holding out, and you can see why this would not look good for him. But he saw what happened to his father, and he promised Disa. If he breaks his promise for the good of Khazad-Dum, will he lose his wife? If he keeps his promise, will he lose his kingdom?

And that’s not even considering Elrond. Do Elrond and the Elves even know about the Seven? If I had to pick the answer that would cause the greatest drama for a TV show, I would say: no. If Durin does decide to distribute the Rings, or even if Elrond finds out he had them and hid them, will their friendship ever recover?

But maybe even more than Durin, I would be keeping my eye on Disa, Gamli, and Gerda as potential Ringbearers. Gamli and Gerda are young. Disa is ambitious, and she is most affected by being unable to hear the Mountain anymore. If she could get that back with a Ring, would she, despite knowing what that could do to her? Maybe if she meets Galadriel and sees Nenya, having seemingly little ill effect and doing a great deal of good…

I do think that by the end of the season, the Dwarven conflict will have erupted into full-out civil war, and that will make it difficult, if not impossible for Galadriel, Celeborn, Gandalf, and Arondir to cross back through into Eriador. I fear what the outcome of this will be, because as far as we know, there was never a King Gamli of Khazad-Dum. And as we know, seven Dwarf Lords do end up with seven Rings of Power. I think the best we can hope for Durin’s family in the long run is exile.

I haven’t reread the LotR Appendices recently (yet), but I did come across a reminder the other day that the Appendices have Durin VI and his son Nain I both killed by the Balrog. Given TRoP’s wibbly-wobbly dealings with time, part of me wonders if they have not simply given Durin III the role of Durin VI, and our Durin’s brother, Nurin, is Nain. But then I’m like, why would they do that? And also, we have two more season and many more years before the end of the series, and I’m assuming we’ll withhold the full fall of Khazad-Dum until then.

Finally, an alternate Celeborn theory: if Galadriel and Arondir are heading not west to the Greenwood, but north to Gundabad—seeking an alliance with the Dwarf Lord beyond Khazad-Dum—then maybe they will actually find Celeborn imprisoned by Dwarves. An in-show explanation for his Dwarf-related trauma without having to go into stories they don’t have rights to tell.

Pelargir

I have a couple of definitive predictions for the Pelargir plot.

One: I think Theo and Hagen are co-leading Pelargir.

Two: Hagen at the end of season 2 says something like his union with Estrid will last as long as their house stands, so that house is absolutely getting demolished. Whether by Kemen or by Ents I cannot yet say. Because…

Three: Maaaaybe the Pelargirians, led by Theo, have managed to preserve the old north forest where they Ents are from Numenor’s incessant demands for timber. But even if so, at this point all other resources are drained. They either have to rebel against Kemen or anger the Ents. Either could end very satisfactorily, with an Ent attack or an uprising of the “low men.” But driven to these extremes, the satisfaction of that uprising may be tempered by the involvement of Rings For Men.

I don’t know exactly how this would work, because it means Sauron would have to be in a lot of places this season, but there are three potential Naznagol in Pelargir: Kemen, Hagen, and Theo. Each has the disposition, each has motivation. Giving a Ring to a leader of the “low men” and to Kemen would be a very funny thing for Sauron to do and would doubtless provide him endless inward amusement.

He could even potentially re-enter the scene there as Halbrand, King of the Southlands, but Kemen would clock him, and one hopes Arondir would have warned Theo as well. But then... would it matter?

I still think Theo is a more likely candidate for King of the Dead, but I definitely think he would/will at least be very tempted by a Ring For Men. And if he takes one, I could see part of the season following him as he perhaps goes into the east with Sauron, where Galadriel and Arondir can persuade him to take that Ring off before it’s too late. And maybe he does. Or maybe he doesn’t. Would his knowledge of healing make him a good Witch King?

Sauron and the One Ring

Something needs to happen to persuade Sauron that the existing Rings of Power are not enough—that he needs to forge One Master Ring to rule them all. Something has to make him believe that his Rings are falling out of his grasp.

Maybe part of it is that Durin isn’t distributing the Dwarven Rings. Maybe part is that the Elven Rings have all escaped his possession and his attempts at recapture.

I have a theory that the final straw is that Gandalf, Galadriel, and their alliance persuade Theo and/or Khamul and/or any and/or all of the existing Naznagol to renounce Sauron. To turn toward the light.

I don’t think the One will be easy for Sauron to forge. He’s no Celebrimbor. I do imagine there will be singing. I do imagine there will be sweat. I do imagine there will be tantrums. But in the end, as we know, he does forge the One (probably in episode 7 or 8; I’ll guess end of 7), and then it’s game over. Anyone who has one is his.

Gandalf has to watch as Khamul et al. lose their free will, are forcibly turned back into the dark, and basically execute an Order 66 on the other members of the alliance.

The Dwarven Rings find their bearers, if they hadn’t already.

And I don’t know what happens to the Elves. I’d like to think they have the presence of mind to yank their Rings off in the nick of time. I believe this is what happens According to Lore, and they still have stuff to do before the season ends. But maybe this is what the showrunners meant whey they said “nobody is safe.” Maybe we will have to deal with a Gil-Galad, Círdan, or even Galadriel who is temporarily bound to Sauron.

The End of the Season

I believe the end of the season will be the battle in which Sauron is “defeated” by Numenor. I think he finally shows up in person because he hears Numenor is coming and he has been just waiting to give them Rings For Men. I haven’t revisited exactly how this plays out According to Lore yet, so my memory is fuzzy. I think the Elves go into battle without their Rings, and they really need the Numenoreans’ help. In the end, it is Numenor that captures Sauron—but in reality, he lets himself be captured. He has them exactly where he wants them.

I’m not sure if Galadriel, Gandalf, et al. will get back in time for this battle or not. I could see them getting there just in time, but they might be prevented by crossing the mountains by the Naznagol and the Dwarves. They might start next season still trying to get through. Maybe they end the season in dire peril. Maybe they’re trapped in the Mountain (bringing us back to Celeborn’s Dwarf-related trauma). Maybe they’re separated, with Galadriel and Celeborn back on either side of the Mountain! Maybe they find harbor with some Halflings.

The question that remains is how/why the Elves let Numenor cart Sauron back with them alive. It could be that the Numenoreans sneak him away while the Elves are otherwise occupied. You know Pharazon would love to get one over on them this way. If Pharazon attacks separately from the Elves, this is a non-issue; he just takes Sauron and goes, and the Elves have to find out about it later.

A possibility that was admittedly inspired by the mistake on the SDCC building wrap but that I still think is a compelling idea is that Sauron forges a decoy Ring and hides the real one. This way, everyone thinks he’s defanged at the end of the season. Numenor takes a depowered Sauron, the Elves take the Ring to destroy. Only it is surprisingly easy… wait! This could create a cliffhanger/plotline to keep key characters occupied at the beginning of season 4 while Sauron is busy seducing Pharazon: where is the Ring? Even if there is no decoy, Sauron might hide the Ring anyway.

And that is where I think the season ends: on Sauron smirking on a boat, headed toward a Numenor that, unbeknownst to Pharazon, potentially has Miriel back on the throne.