Re: Calculating Kira victim totals.
Okay, since I’m honestly baffled by the bizarre assumptions people make about the total number of Kira victims, I’m going to lay out what I think is a more reasonable estimate that’s based on canon figures rather than wild unfounded speculation.
Okay, so we know that in second arc, Mikami kills132 criminals a day, every day like clockwork. Because he’s Mikami. (Bless him).
Mikami receives the note and takes over the killings for these dates:
November 27th 2009 to December 5th 2009 (13 days)
January 27th 2010 - January 28th 2010 (2 days)
Mikami’s total victim count is thus 132 * 15, which amounts to 1980 people.
Takada is instructed by Light to take over the killings from Mikami over this time period:
December 10th through to January 26th (47 days)
Since Takada is receiving her list of criminals from Teru, it’s reasonable to assume that she is also killing about 132 people per day, thus making her victim count equal to 132 * 47, which amounts to 6204 people.
It’s at this point that we’re forced to speculate on how many people a day Light and Misa kill. What canon allows us to infer is this:
This panel shows us that Teru is murdering at a rate that is either greater than the rate at which Light instructs Misa to kill at over the five year time skip OR within a comparable range. Now, for the sake of argument, let’s say Light has Misa kill 100 to 150 criminals per day. Misa would have been responsible for the killings during this time period:
October 29th 2004 - November 26th 2009 (1,854 days)
Calculating Misa’s total victim count is complicated by the fact that my proposed rate of 100-150 criminals per day is not consistent throughout the entire five year time skip. This panel shows that Kira’s rate of killing skyrockets during the summer of 2009 and was not always that high.
Of course, this makes perfect sense because it’s during April 2009 that LIght joins the NPA’s Info-Communications Bureau and gains access to their databases on criminals.
So let’s hypothetically say that Light has Misa kill
50-100 criminals from October 29th 2004 to May 1st 2009 (1648 days)
100-150 criminals from May 2nd to November 26th 2009 (208 days)
This gives us an estimate of Misa’s total victims that ranges from 103,200 to 196,000.
My personal inclination on this number is to assume that the correct figure is the higher one as Light would have access (as L) to Interpol’s database on criminals and would not have had a shortage of names.
So let’s go ahead and try to figure out how many people Light was responsible for killing. Since that above panel allows us to infer that the number of criminals Light was responsible for killing per day was much lower than the proposed 100-150 prior to his joining the NPA, let’s say for argument’s sake that LIght kills 50 criminals per day. The dates he is responsible for killing are:
November 28th 2003 through June 1st 2004 (186 days) spanning the time he finds the death note and enters voluntary confinement.
Arguably, 50 criminals per day is an overestimate as Light does not have access to any police databases at this time and is killing based on what is reported on the news. Light also tends to be quite selective about who he thinks needs to die - ie. he distinguishes between killing in cases of self defense and not. In other words, he does research. Research takes time that he does not have when L is on his case.
But in any case, using the estimate of 50 criminals per day over 186 days, we have a victim count of 9300.
Higuchi’s murder rate is more than likely comparable to Light’s as he is meant to be emulating the role of the First Kira. He is responsible for killing criminals between the dates of:
June 15th and October 28th 2004 (135 days)
Two weeks worth of criminals from June 1st - June 14th (14 days)
This gives Higuchi an estimated victim count of 7450.
Of course, all of those numbers are not exact numbers and are not accurate because of random variation from day to day, but for argument’s sake when you add up all those numbers, you get a total Kira victim count of between 128,134 and 220,934,
Guys, alert me if I’ve made any errors in calculation here, but this doesn’t even come close to a million let alone millions.
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