you might be confused on what happened in russia this past weekend. it’s a little convoluted, but not too hard to grasp:
evgeniy prigozhin (head of wagner private military company (pmc)), was told by shoigu (minister of defense) that all wagner troops would be signing contracts with the ministry of defense on july 1. facing a deadline he could not renegotiate, he decided to use wagner on a march on moscow to stop said dissolution, as a sort of last-minute decision to wage gangland turf war. actually, it was a military mutiny, because wagner wasn’t getting supplies, which it was hoarding for months to prepare this. actually, it was a coup to overthrow putin and end the war. in a video message that morning, prigozhin derided the war as senseless, corrupt, and fabricated, lambasting the denazification pretext in particular as a lie. actually, he wanted to overthrow putin because he, wagner, and his supporters want to prosecute the war more efficiently. actually, they want to prosecute the war more efficiently, but they didn’t want to overthrow putin: what they wanted was to get rid of shoigu and gerasimov (chief of general staff).
his supporters? yes, there were high-ranking individuals and networks in the kremlin who supported prigozhin. this is why wagner wasn’t stopped in time and took over rostov, saboteurs blew up military bases around moscow, and regular troops defected to wagner. actually, there were no saboteurs. actually, everyone in the russian government supported putin, which is why the air force bombed wagner on their highway march north and regular army troops engaged wagner forces. surovikin (commander of the aerospace forces, former chief of general staff) immediately published a video calling on prigozhin and wagner to stand down, as did the deputy head of the military intelligence. actually, surovikin was on prigozhin’s side the whole time. actually, the american intelligence community lied about surovikin’s role to encourage a purge, because he is one of the more competent russian generals. actually, surovikin knew about prigozhin’s plans and was on putin’s side, and didn’t intervene earlier to set prigozhin up for failure. actually, no one supported anybody, and everyone simply wanted to see where the winds were blowing.
as this was ongoing, the russian military bombed apartments in kyiv and other cities, as the ukrainian offensive continued in the south. the ukrainians have the upper hand, and are slowly, but surely, beating back the russians. actually, their offensive is stalling, and russian internal divides help them.
how did russians react? they didn’t do anything to stop wagner, showing that they don’t support putin or the war. actually, they didn’t do anything because they’re apathetic, apolitical, and nihilistic, believing in nothing. actually, they supported wagner troops because they’re fascists who want the war to continue. the russian opposition is against the war and wagner. a few leading figures issued statements in support of the rebellion while it was ongoing, because the russian opposition supports the war and finances wagner.
actually, all of this was staged by putin to weed out enemies. this is why prigozhin got everything he wanted: the dissolution of wagner pmc, exile, and charges filed by the FSB and the ministry of justice investigating him for corruption. prigozhin stopped so close to moscow because it was all a false flag. actually, prigozhin, widely-known for his humanitarian views, stopped because he didn’t want bloodshed. actually, he stopped because he was short on troops, weapons, and heavy equipment. putin comes out looking strong, as someone who disappears for 12 hours, can’t make a decision, and can’t enforce it 200 km away from the capital. putin, who only respects force, is letting this go as a sign of respect by immediately walking back on the deal he struck via lukashenko, who was fleeing belarus on a jet to turkey, as the kalinouski regiment was about to start its own belarusian coup against him. the russian government looks strong and resilient in the aftermath of all this. actually, it exposes the sclerotic rot and hollowness of the state, which is now standing on feet of clay. putin will have to carry out a purge to strengthen his power. actually, it could all remain the same for years to come.
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