My random blog

[profzhu]

Just another day in the office #omega #seamaster #zenith #elprimero #compur #breitling #toptime #excelsiorpark #vintage #chronograph #watchfam

[profzhu]

38mm gold unpolished case. Blue hands on a slightly off white. Amazing fonts. How can a 70 year old watch look this good? #zenith #compur #vintage #chronograph #watchfam #watchesofinstagram #zenithcompur

[profzhu]

Rolex Submariner

This watch needs no introduction. It is the benchmark that all sports luxury watches are measured against. Many collectors begin their watch journey with this watch, myself included. The Rolex Submariner embodies what Rolex has been doing so well for the past century: making a damn good watch for what it’s worth.

The Submariner may not have as cool a story as the Speedmaster, but then again Rolex won’t have to sell the same old story over and over again for 45 years and engrave the word “moon” on every single one of them. What the Submariner do have is a strong history in diving, in military, and of course, being the original watch worn by James Bond.

The Submariner is one of the most popular sports watches in the world, if not the most. The demand for vintage Submariners have exploded in recent years and pushed up the prices of certain rare models to as much as three human kidneys (excluding buyer’s premium). With the wealth of information on Submariners available on pretty much every horology site and magazine out there, I want to focus on a select few vintage models and modern classics that are more accessible for everyday folks like you and me who can’t afford to sell a kidney, or three for that matter, to buy a collectible Submariner.

The phenomenal demand of vintage Submariners also bring about the problem of fakes. While it is not that difficult to identify an all-out fake watch, fake or reworked dials and hands has been a pandemic among vintage Rolexes. Thankfully there is an abundance of reference material available online. Sites like 5513mattedial.com, vintagerolexforum.com, and rolexpassionreport.com are all excellent sources of very reliable information on vintage Submariners.

There are two vintage Submariner models in particular that are in my opinion, as good as vintage sports watches get: Ref 5513 and Ref 1680. These watches look good, hold fantastic value, and offers some of the best value for your buck.

The 5513 was released as a cheaper, non COSC certified alternative to the 5512. It was so popular that Rolex made them for almost 30 years. The 5513s that were produced from 1966 to 1984 featured dials with big luminous plots painted on a matte dial. Modern Submariners had the luminous materials applied onto a glossy dial with a white gold surround. The 1680 was made from 1966 to 1981 and featured a similar matte dial with an additional date function and a COSC certified movement.

For the price that is less than a new Submariner, you can buy a vintage 5513 or a 1680 that are, in my opinion, much better looking. I much prefer the slimmer cases which make them slightly easier to wear on the wrist. They also have less shiny finishing which give them a more subtle and understated look. The drilled lug holes also make strap changing an ease and these watches look fantastic with a set of vintage handmade Italian leather straps.

The dials of vintage Submariners are beautiful as well. The matte finish adds to the understated look but still remain instantly recognisable. The luminous plots are painted using tritium and will develop patina in the form of a dark discolouration. They can take on cream, yellow, and even orange hues and those with even patina on the dial and hands are highly preferred and sought after. Sometimes the dial age to a brown “tropical” colour and can fetch a nice premium.

For both the 5513 and 1680, it is worth noting that the depth rating printed on the dial come in 2 variations: metres first (200m=660ft) and feet first (660ft=200m). Rolex moved from metres first to feet first in an attempt to gain popularity in the US market. Metres first dials are the rarer earlier variations of the dial and will fetch a premium. 1680 also has another notable variation to the dial which is known as the red Submariner. They are produced from 1966 to 1973 and have the words “SUBMARINER” printed in red. These also fetch a significant premium over their white counterparts.

The decision of buying a vintage Submariner is one that is not difficult to make, the problem is which one. For many, the 5513 is preferred for the balance of the dial due to the lack of a date window and a friendlier price point. However, the dial can feel a little empty to some as it does not feature the COSC text. The other side of the camp prefer the 1680 for its practicality with the date function. Movement wise, there is really not much difference as the 5513 movement is equally robust and for a vintage watch, accuracy shouldn’t really on the top of your concern list. Rolex did not send the movements in the 5513 for COSC to keep prices down, not because they were inferior movements.

The 5513 and 1680 are some of the most iconic sports watches made. In a world where every other person in the financial district is wearing either a Submariner or Daytona, having a 5513 or 1680 sets you apart for less money, and at the same time holds better value. They are easier to live with because you don’t have to be afraid of banging them around (as long as you don’t go diving with them). What makes them even better is some of them come with a story, and most owner have their own stories. If you happen to see me at the pub with my vintage Submariner, buy me a drink and I’ll share the story of my Submariner with you.

[profzhu]

Omega Speedmaster Professional

A big part of collecting watches for me is about the history and pedigree of a watch. It is even more so when collecting vintages. Watches that have historical significance. Watches that have stood the test of time both technically and aesthetically. Watches like the Omega Speedmaster Professional.

Lets start from the beginning all the way back to 1957, first there were three: The Railmaster, The Speedmaster, and you guessed it, The Omega Ranchero. The Seamaster came 10 years ago and got an upgrade in 1957 with the new Seamaster 300. All of them were released with the iconic big arrow hands you see on modern Planet Oceans. The Speedmaster was a little different from how it looks today. It had an engraved tachymetre engrave on its bezel, applied Omega logo and sword sub-dial hands. It featured the Calibre 321 movement that was a joint project between Omega and Lemania. The design lasted for a short two years and Omega ditches the engraved bezel for a printed black bezel. This would be the Ref. CK2998, the first Speedmaster that went to space, on the NASA Mercury 8 flight.

Following the Mercury 8 mission, NASA approved the proposal for a NASA-issued, spaceflight qualified watches to be worn in space and shortlisted 3 chronographs for testing: Longines, Rolex, and Omega. Funny story, NASA picked chronographs with manual movements because they thought automatic movements worked due to gravity instead of inertia. Proof that you don’t need to be a genius to be an astronaut.

To keep the long story short, these watches were subjected to extreme temperatures, pressure, shocks, humidity, and noise. The Omega Speedmaster fared the least worst and was officially endorsed by NASA. It was used in the Germini missions (first space walk) and subsequently the Apollo 11 mission (first moon landing). It was rather surprising that Omega only learnt about NASA using the Speedmaster in their space mission after they saw the photos of the Germini 4 mission.

Seven years after the introduction of the first Speedmaster, Ref ST105.012 was release in 1963. This was the reference that was worn by Neil Armstrong (his Speedmaster did not make it to the moon) and Buzz Aldrin (his did) on the Apollo 11 mission. The watch carried design features that remained almost unchanged till today. This was the reference that Omega added the word “Professional” to the model. It was also the last Speedmaster to carry the beautiful C.321 movement. This is the Speedmaster to get, the real Moonwatch.

It is rather ironic that the only Speedmasters to carry the C.321 movement are from the pre-moon era. Following the moon landing, in 1969, Omega and Lemania introduced the new C.861 movement which improved on the C.321 movement for the Speedmaster line. Omega also officially began the milking of the Moonwatch brand for the next 45 years.

The Speedmaster, in my opinion, has one of the most understated and versatile looks among all sports chronographs (I love the old Heuers and Daytonas as well). Put a black alligator strap on it turns into pretty dressy watch that goes well with a suit. Slap a Zulu or NATO nylon strap on it and it turns into a hardy tool watch that you won’t feel bad banging it around. The clean black dial and white hands provide maximum legibility under all situations. The edges of the main dial tapers off and the sub-dials sit slightly deeper into the main dial and give the watch dial a sense of depth.  Older Speedmasters have an applied Omega logo instead of a printed one and offer that little bit more texture to the dial. Omega has stuck with a domed crystal for the Speedmaster even for the Sapphire crystal models. It gives the watch a very nice throwback vintage look but it is susceptible to nicks as it sits rather high.

The Speedmaster is a tool watch through and through. I’m a fan of chronographs without screw down pushers and Omega apparently is one as well. Omega introduced in asymmetric case in Ref ST105.012 to offer protection for the crown and pushers and improved the water resistance of the watch in general. The watch is not without it’s flaws however. While the watch offers perfect legibility in the day, the lume on the hour and minute hands are far too narrow and can barely be seen in the dark. Another gripe that I have with the watch is the lack of drilled pinholes on the lugs as it makes strap changing a chore. This really annoys me as the Speedmaster has such a versatile case that begs for frequent strap change.

The Speedmaster is one of the most iconic watches of all time and with that comes phenomenal demand. Omega made a smart commercial move of keeping it extremely accessible and they sell like hotcakes off the shelf. This watch holds very good value on the used market and prices remain extremely stable.

After Omega added the word “Professional” to the Speedmaster range in 1963, it created room for Omega to introduce the Speedmaster only range (commonly known as Speedmaster reduced). After 45 years of milking the Speedmaster brand, there are around 72169 different variations of the Speedmaster. A word of advice, the reduced line is not worth your money. Just stick with the Professional range. (Do not mix up Speedmaster reduced with Speedmaster Co-Axial which share the same name as the latter feature some truly fantastic automatic movements but they are still not worth the money. Told you Omega is milking the franchise.)

Among the Speedmaster Professionals, there are so many limited editions that I actually prefer the standard watches. I would highly recommend a used Speedmaster as they hover around the range of $2500 and look rather good with a beaten up exterior. Purists often go for older Speedmasters produced before 1995 that still has tritum dial with the C.861 movement. The movement is similar to the modern C.1861 movement so maintenance is easy. However, true watch snobs that correct people’s pronunciation of Jaeger LeCoultre won’t settle for anything less than a vintage pre-moon Speedmaster with the C.321 movement, alpha sword hands, applied Omega logo, the lot.

Given the history, low entry price point, value it holds, understated good looks, the Speedmaster is a must have for any watch collector. You’ll be hard pressed to find anything that comes anywhere even close to what you’ll be getting for your hard earn money.

[profzhu]

How do I spot a fake vintage watch?

Making sure that you’re not buying a fake is probably the most important and scary part of buying a vintage watch. You can always buy a new watch from an authorised dealer or boutique for a peace of mind but you can’t for an expensive vintage watch (with the exception of Vacheron Constantin). Buying from a reputable vintage dealer is generally safe and most of them have an online presence but they do carry a significant premium. I’m not against buying vintage watches from a dealer but it is always much more satisfying and interesting to do your own little treasure hunt as half the fun lies in the hunt.

Most watch collectors began their journey with a good old Rolex and this is where I shall start as well on because they are by far the most counterfeited watch in the world. The rules to spotting a fake apply not just to Rolex but also to most other brands.

First of all, the Internet is your best friend. It has revolutionized the used watch market. It is a powerful tool and extensive information depository that should be used by everyone who is doing prior research for a watch on his wanted list.

For vintages, there really just aren’t that many blatant fakes out there as compared to modern watches. The fakes that we normally see on the market are usually more likely to be genuine watches with fake replacement parts. Parts like the dial and hands are cheap to manufacture but they hold the bulk of the value of the watch. The spread of fake dials and hands into the vintage watch market has been almost an epidemic. Even experienced collectors sometime find it difficult to identify fake dials. Hong Kong and Italy are known for their thriving vintage watch market (Hong Kong alone accounts for 20% of the total value of all watches sold in the world) but they are also rumoured to be a distribution ground and infecting the market with fake vintage dials.

Fear not Rolex collectors, for no other brand come anywhere close to Rolex for the wealth of resources available online on vintage Rolex watches. The vintage Rolex super dealer Eric Ku owns a forum called Vintage Rolex Forum and it is one of the best forums online with a plethora of information on vintage Rolexes. They have a database of carefully curated dial variations of many different Rolex models organized according to serial numbers. Eric Ku also posted detailed articles on watches with fake dials being sold on the market. If you are eyeing a vintage Rolex, this forum should be your go to reference. If you are buying anything other than a Rolex, there is also the Watchuseek forum which has an excellent community for all your other brands’ needs.

Vintage watches used either radium or tritium as luminous material on the hands and dial. However, they were phased out in the 90s in favour of luminova because they were radioactive and posed a health risk and with it destroyed any chances of there being a mutated super hero who wore a radioactive watch. Radium has a half-life of 1600 years and tritium has a half-life of 12 years. As such, vintage dials still have a detectable level of radiation on them and this is a way to authenticate genuine dials and hands if you happen to have access to a Geiger counter.

Another way to authenticate watches is by inspecting the printings on the dial and bezel. Fonts, alignments, and placements can different slightly across the production span of these watches. Head online and study how a genuine dial should look like. Sometimes the printing on fake dials are not as crisp and the alignments can be off when compared to genuine ones.

You check under the hood before you buy a car and you should do the same for a watch. As far as possible, try to examine the movement. A genuine movement should be correctly stamped with the brand of the watch. There are exceptions where the brands don’t match when the movements are outsourced. For example, if you chance upon a vintage Panerai with a Rolex stamped movement, it is actually a rare Italian naval diver’s watch. For many luxury watches, the movement should also be stamped with serials numbers that will give information on the approximate production date of the movement and should coincide with the period of the case. The case backs add another layer of authentication and it should have similar stamps on them as well. Rolex case backs are engraved with the production date and original case backs should match the time period of the serial numbers on the corresponding watches.

Your knack for spotting a fake watch will only become better with more experience. Head down to the fake buster sections on various forums and soak up as much information as you can and join in the discussion. You’ll slowly pick up all the know-hows to spot a fake watch and become a fakewatchbusta yourself.

[profzhu]

What should I look out for when getting a vintage watch?

I have only one rule for buying watches: always buy a watch that you are prepared to keep. If it is a watch worth keeping, it is likely that someone else would be willing to buy it. I will share with you this week what I look out for when I’m buying a vintage watch to decide whether it is worth keeping.

    Where to Find One

  There are more ways than ever to buy a vintage watch thanks to the Internet. You can find them at auctions, vintage watch shops, online web stores, eBay, and forums from all over the world. You might have a higher risk buying watches online but it is also the best place to find a bargain. More importantly, no matter where you buy the watch, the two most important things to note are buyer feedback rating and return policy. If you’re buying online, always look for sellers with a positive feedback rating of at least 99% and a reasonable return policy. If you’re buying from a traditional brick and mortar watch shop, a return policy is also useful for additional protection.

  As far as I’m concerned I prefer looking for watches on local forums and arranging face-to-face transactions. Although these watches do not come with an in-house warranty, I am often able to find very well maintained pieces from fellow watch lovers who take good care of them. It also doesn’t hurt that I can also discover some truly fantastic deals and forge friendships with other enthusiasts.

  General Condition of the Watch

  A vintage watch should look aged. If it looks brand new, something’s off. Just look at Cher. The weathered look is what give vintages watches their distinctive flavour and appeal. Only with a bashed up vintage watch can you point to the dent on the bezel and jokingly say, “Vietnam. ’68.”

  The top tier collectors like Jean-Claude Biver or Alfredo Paramico look for pristine, untouched, or even new old stock vintage pieces to add to their collection. But they also wear suits that cost more than my entire wardrobe.  For watches that can actually be afforded by everyday folks like you and me, these are the following things that I look out for.

  There is a recent trend that collectors like to buy unpolished watches. While polishing can make remove scratches and give watches a new look, it also removes materials away from the watch. Michael Jackson can only sharpen his nose so many times before it disappears. However, it is not uncommon for a vintage watch to be polished at least once over the years when it was serviced. An unpolished watch might actually suggest that it had never been serviced before. Personally I do not like a watch to be over or badly polished. One of the easiest ways to spot an over-polished watch this is to feel the bezel and lug edges. They should be nice, even, and sharp. The width of the lugs should also be the same. Uneven lugs are a tell that one side of the watch may have been polished multiple times.

  A clean watch and movement suggest that it has been well taken care of by its previous owners. Dirt and even dust can be detrimental to the watch by causing additional wear and tear to the movement. Inspect the areas under the crown and around the edges of the case back for dirt build up. Watches that have been serviced and maintained regularly should be clean. A watch that has been over-exposed to moisture will also develop rust and should ring alarm bells of a damaged movement.

    The Whole Package

  Top tier collectors almost always look for watches with the complete original set of accessories including, but not limited to, the original box, papers, service history, price tags, etc. Certain brands (most notably Rolex) are notorious for not reissuing certificates of authenticity and complete sets of such brands demand a high premium. For example, a vintage Rolex Red Submariner with original box and papers can sell for as much as 50% more when compared to one without.

  More important than box and papers, the original parts (dial, hands, bezel, crown, bezel insert, case, bracelet, etc.) hold the bulk of the value of a vintage watch. In general there are three different types of vintage watches that can be found on the market: one that has all original parts, one with time/period correct matching parts, and a franken. This is in my opinion the most dangerous part of vintage watches and where experience and knowledge come into play.

  A vintage watch with all original parts is the rarest and will fetch the highest premium. Most of the vintage watches on the market will have some parts replaced over the years due to wear and tear. It is paramount that the replacement parts are matching and come from the same time period. Watch manufacturers keep a stock of replacement parts that are produced in the same period as the watch. As far as possible, they will go through their warehouse choose parts that match the watch during servicing.

  A franken should be avoided because it is one that is pieced together using genuine parts (or even worse, counterfeit parts) from different time periods or even different watches. One way to spot a franken this is to search for pictures of the same watch on the Internet and look out for distinctive features of the watch and compare them with the one that you would like to buy. Fonts on the dial and bezel insert vary across different batches of production. Luminous material used on the dial and hands are reflected on the dial and this should match the time period of the watch. The luminous material used on vintage watches age and sometimes turn into a yellow/orange colour commonly known as patina, matching dial and hands with the same age should be have similar colour and condition.

  Summing things up, if you’re looking for a good vintage watch, find one that has at least all matching parts and well taken care of. An unpolished piece with box and papers is definitely a big plus but the premium that comes with it would be significant. While it is desirable to have a watch that has been regularly serviced, always be prepared to service the watch yourself after you make the purchase and factor that into your decision. Servicing the watch can help to authenticate your watch by professionals, ensure that it will continue to tick for the next decade, and make it worth keeping.

[profzhu]

Some good things in life

[profzhu]

Introduction to Vintage Watches

A watch collection isn’t complete without at least one vintage timepiece. Anyone with adequate funds can buy the latest modern haute horlogerie as part of his collection but it takes knowledge, patience, perseverance, and luck to put a proper vintage grail timepiece onto his wrist. The good news is that there has never been a better time than now to get into vintage watches.

The Internet has revolutionised the used watch market by enabling access to information and matching demand and supply. Enthusiasts are able to browse watches for sale from all over the world at the convenience of their own homes in front of their computer. What once used to be a trade that took collectors years, if not decades to master, now take months, maybe even weeks to learn. Thanks to lower barriers of entry, demand for vintage watches has surged in recently years and they are becoming genuine investment vehicles. Italian banker Alfredo Paramico runs a fund used for investing in rare timepieces and it achieves an 18.2% returns in the S&P Index from 2011 to 2012. When was the last time your investments managed such returns.

I often get asked the question: “Why should I get a vintage watch when a used, modern model is better?” It true, a modern watch offers a more refined mechanical movement, better quickset functions, superior built quality, and more modern design. However, vintage watches are able to stir the irrational love within collectors’ heart like no other because it has that little bit more, for the lack of a better word, soul. The aging of the tritium markers on the dial, the thickness of the acrylic crystal dome, the traditional Arabic numeral fonts, even manufacturing defects; they give the watch character that often only comes with age.

Many watch lovers find themselves converging towards vintage watches at some point in their journey of watch collecting. However, someone that is new to watches shouldn’t dive head first into vintage territory because it takes a certain amount of knowledge to fully appreciate the beauty of a vintage timepiece. It is also a dangerous place where technical knowledge and street smartness are important to staying safe from fakes. Once you embark on the journey of becoming a vintage watch collector, you’ll often find yourself on a slippery slope, constantly searching for the next grail vintage timepiece to fill that empty slot in your watch display case.

For those new to vintage watches, I highly recommend watches from the 60s and 70s for many reasons. These watches are relatively modern in design and contain mechanically robust movements. Many of them were originally marketed as tool watches and thus, have a reasonable price point. Manufacturers would also still have spare parts for these watches so you don’t have to sell your kids to get them serviced. These watches are the perfect beginners’ vintage.

Just like building a modern watch collection, there are many different kinds of vintages to consider – the dress watch, the dive watch, the chronograph, and the complication. Allow me to share some examples of popular vintage watches.

Patek Philippe Calatrava

Introduced in 1932, the Calatrava’s iconic minimalistic and classy design philosophy has remained largely unchanged over the past eight decades. Albeit a little small compared to modern dress watches, they have been the quintessential entry luxury dress watch thanks to its approachable price point and timeless design. If you’re on the hunt for a vintage dress watch, you can’t go wrong with the Calatrava.

Heuer Carrera or Heuer Monaco

Before the purchase of Uhrenmanufaktur Heuer AG (tha’s one hell of a mouthful) by Tag Group in 1985, their watches carried only the name Heuer. The 60s and 70s Heuer Carrera and Monaco (depending which style you prefer) were some of the best chronographs Heuer made and were powered by the fantastic Cal. 11 movement.

Cartier Tank

It is common that companies whose primary businesses are not watches do not make fantastic watches. Cartier is one of the exceptions. Conceived by Louis Cartier in 1917, the Cartier Tank was not just made to tell time on the wrist, its design had comfort and style in mind. You don’t need a Cartier Tank to tell time, but you need it to look good.

Rolex Daytona

I’m not a fan of the modern Rolex Daytona. I don’t like the shiny steel bezel, I don’t like that Rolex did away with the contrast sub-dials, and I also don’t like the polished centre link bracelet. But those vintage Daytonas with 4 digit references, my-my are they sights to behold. The Rolex 6263 Paul Newman black dial on black bezel with the Valjoux Cal. 72 manual movement, that’s a grail watch right there (personally I prefer the looks of a non-Paul Newman). Chronographs don’t come better than this.

Omega Speedmaster Professional

The Omega Speedmaster Professional holds a special place in my heart. It rose to fame when it became the first watch onto the moon in 1969 (first watch into space was a Russian Shturmanskie). It has history and pedigree of a true classical timepiece. However, what really attracted me to this watch are its understated good looks. Open up the case back and you’ll be treated to a beautiful movement if you’re lucky enough to get your hands on one with a pre-moon Cal .321 movement.

Audermars Piguet Royal Oak

In 1972, Audermas Piguet released a controversial watch called the Royal Oak, designed by the legendary Gerald Genta and running on a custom Jaeger-LeCoultre movement. It revolutionised luxury watch making by using stainless steel rather than gold or silver as material for the case and bracelet. Although it was met with initial scepticism and did not perform to expectation, Gerald Genta had the last laugh as the watch proved to be years ahead of its time as demand increased eventually and remained popular for the next four decades. It doesn’t hurt that it also features one of the best bracelets ever made in my opinion. A tiny tip, go for the one with the blue dial, that’s the pretty one.

Universal Geneve Tri Compax

Often dubbed as the poor man’s Patek, the Universal Geneve Tri Compax follows design philosophies behind the Patek Philippe Perpetual Calendar Chronographs. Manufactured in the 40s and 50s, these annual calendar chronographs were seen as an affordable alternative to the top tier brands. However, the company did not survive the quartz crisis well and lost their status in the mechanical watch industry. In the past few years there has been a resurgence in interest in these vintage timepieces thanks to Ben Clymer’s midas touch after being featured on his watch blog.

Grand Seikos

Many think mechanical Seikos are the Toyotas of the watch industry and they are not wrong. However, they also make Grand Seikos that are the Lexus that can go heads up with BMW and Mercedes in almost every aspect. The build quality, accuracy, and eye for detail on each Grand Seiko can easily match any of the top Swiss brands in the market ever since its introduction in the 1960s. Grand Seikos also have a sizeable cult following that ensures they hold a very decent resale value.

Rolex Submariner

What? Never heard of it.

[profzhu]

Vintage Watches - A new series

Hi everyone, it seems that this blog has taken yet another turn in the things that I write about. As you may know, I’ve invested a good amount of time and money into watches over the past couple of years. Now I’ve found a good reason for myself to share my experience and whatever knowledge that I’ve gained with like minded mates and people who may be interested in getting into this hobby (more like a obsession to me).

Over the next few weeks I’m going to write a series of short primers to the intriguing world of vintage watches. To make all our lives a little easier, I’m going to focus mostly on watches produced from the post war to pre 80s period. These watches are generally not too difficult to find, still rather modern in design, have a decent manufacturer record, and often won’t break your bank to maintain them. They serve as a good starting point for those that are moderately into watches and interested in getting some more serious timepieces.

Week 1: Introduction to vintage watches - Should I get a vintage watch? Which vintage watch should I get?

Week 2: What should I look out for when getting a vintage watch?

Week 3: How do I spot a fake vintage watch?

Week 4: How should I maintain my vintage watches?

Week 5: Spotlight - Rolex Submariner

Week 6: Spotlight - Omega Speedmaster Professional

Keep a look out on this space and please feel free to let me know any questions or requests that you may have and I’ll love to try to respond to them.

[profzhu]

Oscillators

My third part on charting will cover oscillators. It is a technical analysis tool that is banded between two extreme values and built with the results from a trend indicator for discovering short-term overbought or oversold conditions. As the value of the oscillator approaches the upper extreme value the asset is deemed to be overbought, and as it approaches the lower extreme it is deemed to be oversold. It should be used when a clear price trend cannot be easily seen in a company's stock such as when it trades horizontally or sideways.

1. Relative strength indicator

The RSI is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. It ranges from 0 to 100. Usually when RSI has a reading of below 25, price action is weak and prices are oversold. When the value is above 75, it is overbought. When RSI is in either of the 2 zones, there may be drastic changes in price. One should take a position preferably when the RSI is between the 25-75 range and use it to complement other stock-picking tools.

2. Stochastic oscillator

The stochastic oscillator is a technical momentum indicator that compares a security's closing prices to its price range over a given time period. It is a hybrid of the RSI and moving averages. The oscillator's sensitivity to market movements can be reduced by adjusting the time period or by taking a moving average of the result.

The purple line is %k, it is the current price in relation to the recent price range. The blue line is %d, it is the moving average of %k. What we are looking for is to take positions at when the 2 lines cross, also known as stochastic crosses. We should be interested in a bull-stochastic cross where %k is higher than %d. These are points where depressed prices begin to rise, and may signal a market recovering from oversold conditions.

3. ADX/DMI

Average directional index/directional movement indicators. This graph identifies the strength of a trend. The ADX line (yellow, only one you need to pay attention to) is derived from the 2 DMI lines (blue and pink lines). The ADX is non-directional and it will quantify a trend's strength regardless of whether it is up or down. However, it is only useful for identifying longer trends and not really useful for short term. It is helpful to confirm trends in situations when one is holding a stock and deciding if one should let the profits run in a bullish trend.

4. Moving average convergence divergence/exponential moving average

This momentum indicator shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. The MACD (blue line) is calculated by subtracting the 26 day EMA from the 12 day EMA. Then a 9 day  EMA of the MACD is the signal line (pink line). The two are plotted together to show buy and sell signals. Buy decision should be made when the signal line crosses the MACD above it and sell decisions made when the opposite happens.

When the security price diverges from the MACD, it signals the end of the current trend.

When the MACD rises dramatically, the shorter moving average is pulling away from the longer term moving average. This is a signal that the security is overbought and will soon return to normal levels.

When the MACD is above 0, the short term average is above the long term average and signals an upward momentum. The opposite is also true. 0 lines often act as an area of support and resistance for the indicator.

5. On balance volume

The OBV relates volume to price change. It provides a running total of volume and shows whether this volume is flowing in or out of a given security. It detects when a financial instrument is being accumulated by a large number if buyers or sold by many sellers. An upward sloping OBV confirms an uptrend and a downward sloping OBV confirms a downtrend. Finding a downward sloping OBV while the price of an asset is trending upwards can be used to suggest an exit position and a shift in trend may be coming.

6. Accumulation/Distribution

This momentum indicator attempts to gauge supply and demand by determining whether investors are generally accumulating or distributing a certain stock by identifying divergences between stock price and volume flow. A/D better interprets volume flows occurring within a trend. What we want to see is the A/D line supporting the prevailing trend. A/D line rising with rising prices and vice versa. So when there is a divergence in the A/D line and stock prices, it can be an indicator for the coming of a reversal of a trend.

[profzhu]

Price Studies

My second part the basics of charting is price studies. They are mainly the statistical study of prices which can be useful to predict entry and exit points for a particular stock.

1. Moving averages

Moving average is a tool to help smooth out the fluctuations in prices by removing the noise from the graph. It take the average of prices over a period of time which can be specified (say the past 10 days or the past 30 days). Usually 2 sets of data are plotted with one with a shorter time frame and one with a longer time frame. The two series are plotted against the price of the asset. Prices are likely to turn bullshit when the shorter average exceeds the longer average and bearish when the longer average is greater than the shorter average. Moving average also forms the basis for moving average convergence divergence which will I'll talk about in a later part.

2. Parabolic stop and reverse

Parabolic SAR is used to find potential reversals in the market prices of an asset. It can be used to determine entry of exit points. This is one is quite simple, if the dots are above the chart, prices are in a down trend. If the dots are below the chart, prices are in an up trend. When the dots touch the chart, there is going to be a reversal in the prevailing trend.

3. Pivot points

Pivot points are used for calculating support and resistant levels. There are usually 2 levels calculated involving the previous day's high, low, closing prices, 2 support and 2 resistance lines. One is calculated using the width of the trading range between the pivot point and either the high or low prices of the the previous day. The other is is calculated using the full width between the high and low prices of the previous day. Bulls may buy at support regions and bears may sell at resistance points. However, this should be used to support and decision and not to make trading decisions.

In my next post I'll talk about price oscillators such as relative strength indicator, stochastic average, ADX/DMI, MACD, etc.

[profzhu]

Girls like cars and money

Someone pretty successful that's close to me once told me: life is really simple, quit chasing girls, become rich, and you can have any girl you want. I have to say that he can't be more right (most probably).

So I'm going to start to become a little more serious and be more focused on investment. I first went into stocks using virtual traders, relying purely on graph/trend analysis and news spotting. Taking bets on rising trends in different industries. Despite the good returns its virtual after all and pretty much useless. Recently I made a bet with Blackberry and it paid off with roughly 25% returns but I'm not planning to do that again. I'm going to try to learn it the proper way and I'm going to note down regularly some of the things I've learn. Hope the pros online can provide some criticism at places where I've gone wrong. I'm not a finance grad so I don't really care that much about getting terms right, but more of getting concepts right. For the next 2 months, I'm going to write some posts that will hopefully help me to consolidate the things that I've read and through writing it out, I can better remember it.

The most important principle of trading stock is buy low, sell high. In order to do that, one of the ways is to identify trends from the charts. Below are some of the most basic trends as shown in bar charts.

First up: Chart Patterns

1. Triangles

The triangle is a trend where there is a consistently narrower trading range over time. Depending on the shape of the triangle, and the preceding trend, one can try to predict where the price will go next. In this case, it is called a symmetrical triangle, and following the apex of the triangle, the price is likely to breakout in the direction of the prior trend. In this example, it is indeed the case.

There are other cases where the triangle is ascending, shaped like a "7". It is formed by a flat resistance and ascending price support line. It is generally found in a bullish trend. A good time would be to enter at a point where the price is at or lower than the resistance line before the apex of the triangle and try to anticipate a breakout above the resistance level.

There is another case where the triangle is descending, like an inverted "7". The inverse holds for this trend. One thing to note is to spot a good price level to enter after the price falls below the support level to a point where it is undervalued.

2. Wedges

A wedge basically a long drawn triangle. It typically runs against the direction of the prevailing trend. At the end of the consolidation of prices, the price is likely to breakthrough sharply in the opposite direction of the trend of the wedge.

3. Flag and Pennant

The flag and pennant are similar trends while differing in their consolidation period. Flags are more long drawn as compared to pennants. They are usually formed when there is a sharp price movement (intra-day), and this may be a precursor to a larger continuation move. One should take note of the direction of the flag/pennant trend after the sharp price movement. In general, the flag should move in the opposite direction of the initial sharp price movement.

So I've introduced 3 of the most basic chart patterns, how to identify them, and what trends they usually suggest. In the next post, I'm going to look at price behaviour studies such as moving average, stop and reverse, and pivot points.

[profzhu]

Built for asians and it's too small for asians? Racist bitch. Buy your shit xbox. No one wants you on psn. And lmfao you play fifa? lame

Yes the controller was originally designed for Asians in the original PS1 and the form factor remained unchanged for both the dual shock 2 and 3. It is pretty notorious for being a little too small. The palm grips are small as well as compared to the Xbox 360 controller which allows a much more natural grip of the controller. The buttons on the Xbox provides better tactile feedback. The Xbox 360 controller is also designed in a way that the index fingers rest naturally on the triggers and on the Dual Shock, index fingers rests on the shoulder buttons. This is evident in the default key binding layouts of games. I much prefer using trigger compared to shoulder buttons because it gives more control. Sports games, racing sims, action RPGs, analogue triggers perform much better. One example is Forza vs GT. In Forza the default control for gas and brake are the trigger buttons which in GT the default for gas and brake are X and Square. The former offers significantly better control. It is something that Sony is aware of and they are trying to make a controller that tries to elevate these problems.

[profzhu]

The dual shock 3 was very dated your right but have you seen or felt the dual shock 4? I would check it out first

I have to admit I did not have any hands on experience on the PS4 controller and that they have made multiple improvements to the ergonomics of the controller making it more comfortable. However, the fact that the D pad still still the primary directional control really puts me off.

[profzhu]

Which console should I get? -continued

I realised that I have yet to tackle the biggest question on my previous post "which console should I get". The title of the previous post should be more like "should I get a console now".

For me all the fan boy arguments on the console wars are just stupid and a waste of time and emotions. The choice is really easier than you think.

Forget about graphical differences between consoles. Admit it, if you're playing on a console, chances are, you don't really care about graphics or you don't really bother to pay for a PC for top notch graphics. So come on, it doesn't really matter.

The biggest factor is pretty much down to exclusives. If you like action RPGs, go Sony. If you like shooters, go Microsoft. If you're a serious enough gamer, you'll pretty much buy both.

For me, the biggest deciding factor in choosing the console is not about the power, its not about the online community, its not about the price. It is all about the controller. I mean that is the one single device that you are going to spend the entire time of the life span of that console holding. So you better darn love that piece of plastic that resides in your hands.

In this area, I feel that Microsoft wins hands down. The Xbox 360 controller has by far the best controller ever created yet. The PS3 controller design is way dated. And since both companies stuck pretty much with the original controller design, I'm going for Microsoft.

The Xbox controller fits, it fits nicely in my hands, my index fingers rest nicely on the triggers, shooters feel right, driving games feel right. The analogue stick positions are right. We are way past the age of 8 direction controls and most games more or less have 360 degree controls. Why on earth is Sony still using the D-pad as the primary directional control here. I simply cannot understand. Having to stretch my thumb down to the left stick location makes me lose the accuracy I need in games like shooters and sports games. My passes in FIFA don't come out as accurately because I play on full manual mode (and bitches that is the way to play FIFA). The PS controller is way too small. It's built for Asians and its too small for Asians. My hands hurt after a session of a couple of hours in an intense shooter game. I absolutely hate playing FIFA or racing games on the PS3 because the controller is just terrible.

Yep, so that's it. If you're wondering what console to get, go with the Xbox, simply because the controller is so much better.

[profzhu]

Which console should I get?

I'm pretty sure everyone knows that the new generation of consoles is coming to us in a couple of weeks' time and the burning question in everyone's minds is "Which console should I get?", or if you're living in Singapore "Why does Microsoft want to fuck us over and should I get a PS4 now?"

The answer is that it really depends. But long answer short, unless you're into sports games, don't buy a next-gen console now. Here's why.

This early in a console's life cycle, it is highly likely that it will face hardware problems due to lack of testing. Consoles will be more likely to have more hardware failures, design problems, etc. They will continue to improve later into their lifespan. One example is the Xbox 360, it came into the market with a notorious RROD issue that affected more than a third of the consoles and cost Microsoft billions of dollars replacing broken units. The Xbox 360 originally didn't have a HDMI port (can you believe it?) and after two years into production it was finally added together with a new motherboard. The Xbox 360 hard drive also gradually grew as they realised that it is extremely important to game developers. It doesn't matter how well designed or future proof the console is made, it will get better over time.

Being an early adopter of a console also means that you'll be hard pushed to find content, both in the first and second hand market. Games are also not optimised to run well and take advantage of the console. For example, Uncharted is a PS3 launch title and it only utilised approximately 30% of the hardware's power. Uncharted 2 and 3 managed to take full advantage of the Cell processor and just look at the difference.

The first round of multi-generation games are simply not worth your money. Yes they may look better, but ultimately they don't add much to the experience. There are very few cross-generation launch titles because the cost involved simply just don't justify the developers doing so. The developers much rather spend more time and money developing the product on the previous generation where there is a much bigger user base.

Current and next-gen consoles are very different from what they used to be. They are built with the intention of being connected to the net and able to get regular firmware updates. This allows the manufacturers to constantly roll out new functions and optimising the system from a software perspective. For example, software patches can improve the efficiency of the system and increase performance, it can also allow the console to have more multimedia abilities.

If you don't mind waiting, get consoles 1-2 years into its product cycle. It will be much more value for money. Some of the hardware issues may have been ironed out. The launch titles will often be bundled with their sequels or appear in the bargain bins. The possibilities of homebrew for the consoles (if any) will also begin to surface. I bought my PS3 5 years into the product cycle, played every good (rated 8 and above) exclusive, and sold it for a profit.

For those that love graphics, PC is always king, there is no point buying a console, the hardware used by the next gen-console is already one gen behind in terms of PC hardware architecture.

The exception to all of those mentioned above is sports games. And it really pisses me off. Whether you're playing FIFA 14 or NBA 2K14, the next gen console is the definitive version to own. They have far superior graphics, newer game engine, more game modes, and are effectively almost a different game altogether. Racing sims are also almost exclusive to consoles. The two best racing sims on the market: Forza and GT, are both console exclusives. Bummer.

So unless you really really love sports games and racing sims. You can save a lot of money by holding off next-gen consoles for another couple of years.

[profzhu]

Don't buy an iPhone now

If you are going to be another one of my genius female friends who buys an iPhone right before Apple's announcement of the new one, using the excuse "I really need a phone, I don't care", STOP NOW.

I don't know what is the best way to put it, but... You don't need an iPhone now, you don't want an iPhone now, you shouldn't get an iPhone now.

Apple's announce is less than 2 weeks away and now is literally the worst time to buy a new iPhone, it is even a bad time to buy any phone. The new iPhone will definitely be better than the old one, and it'll likely to be priced similarly to replace the old one. To make things even better, a new budget iPhone is rumoured to be released with similar specs as compared to the iPhone 4S. The iPhone 5 will get a low storage model and the price will be slashed. Mobile shops will slash prices of the old iPhone 5 to clear inventory.

So don't buy an iPhone now. Your patience will be rewarded. It will be extremely difficult to not call you a retard in your face if I happen to see you with a new but actually not-so-new iPhone in your hands.