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@reddragonleo
ES Morning Update August 30th 2023
Yesterday looked a lot like the Tiny Wave 3 up that I was really thinking would take longer to play out, but when the market triggers stops the squeeze is vicious. Either this morning or Friday morning after the jobs report should finish it though as I suspect we’ll take out the stops above the 8/14 high and then pullback for Tiny Wave 4… which at the rate this market is going might end up being…
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ES Morning Update August 29th 2023
Off to a choppy start yesterday but the market did indeed grind higher a little. Intraday pullbacks are next to impossible to predict, but overall the market is doing pretty much as expected. This week is historically one of the lowest volume weeks of the year, so that means it should float higher. I don’t know how much of course but I’m sticking with my 4500-4550 SPX target range by this Friday.…
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ES Morning Update August 28th 2023
Last week was full of wild swings up and down but ended closing positive by +29.40 on the SPX. Everything still looks good for a rally this week, but I have no idea if we can make it all the way up to the FP on the SPY or not. I only can say it’s there and will be hit at some point. I just need to “note it” and if the technicals are still suggesting more upside when we get close then I’ll look…
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ES Morning Update August 25th 2023
I got fooled yesterday on the early pullback, quick retrace back up… and big dump. It’s clear now that the move up Wednesday was Extra Tiny Wave 5, not 3… which I thought must be a wave 3 as it was so long and strong. But I can clearly count 5 waves up from the low last Friday and even-though the last wave is must longer then the wave 3 it’s still valid. I sometimes forget that wave 3’s don’t…
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ES Morning Update August 24th 2023
We got the move up yesterday I was looking for, which is likely a wave 3 from the strength of it. What degree? Probably an Extra Tiny Wave 3 inside Tiny Wave 1 up… that’s my best guess. The RSI on the 6hr chart still has room up to go up more, which is perfect for a wave 3 move. I’m not sure where it will stop at, but that 4500 zone on the SPX is resistance, so that’s my estimate for the end of…
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ES Morning Update August 23rd 2023
The market pulled back small yesterday and held support, so odds have increased that the low on Friday was the bottom for Small Wave 4 and that we are in Small Wave 5 up right now. In some smaller (unknown yet… probably Extra Tiny Waves) degree the rally up from last Friday to the high yesterday was a wave 1 and the pullback yesterday a wave 2… which may or may not be finished? With Nvidia…
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ES Morning Update August 22nd 2023
We did not get that last move down to fill the gap on the ES at 4325 that I was looking for yesterday, but we still have today to do it. After that I think the market is going up into Labor Day as I discussed yesterday. And while I might be rooting for that gap to fill now, because we got so close, they might be tricking us and saving it until the late September to early October pullback… who…
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ES Morning Update August 18th 2023
The market did continue lower without any bounce yesterday, so everything now points to it being inside Small Wave 4 down. I wish I would have seen this earlier but charting Elliottwave isn’t easy, nor is it perfect. This is a perfect example of how it can be miscounted on the smaller degree waves, which I clearly did by looking for that last Tiny Wave 5 up before Small Wave 4 down…
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ES Morning Update August 17th 2023
The FOMC was a dud as nothing happened but a continuation of the downtrend. The daily RSI on the SPX and ES is nearly oversold now, but could go deeper. There’s no rule on where it must turn but it’s in an area where turns are common. But at this point I think we are headed to the 4325 gap fill on the ES, which if we continue going straight down to it without a bounce the RSI will be fully…
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ES Morning Update August 16th 2023
The low did not hold so Extra Tiny Wave 4 down is still in play. Support broke on the rising red trendline in the channel, so bulls must recover it asap if they plan on getting any kind of squeeze up going. So far there’s no real exhaustion on the downside and that’s not good for any rallies holding. Yes, the break of the red trendline could be a “fake out” but right now it’s a break and that’s…
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ES Morning Update August 15th 2023
The Friday low held and the market is starting to move up now, and slowly… which is ideal for bulls as they don’t get exhausted and can just grind through all the bears. And this morning it’s having a pullback, which should be a Extra Small Wave 2 if we are indeed in Tiny Wave 5 up. Last week was full of intraday fast squeezes, and none of them held. Why? Because it was too fast and just not…
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ES Morning Update August 14th 2023
Even though the market had a ton of wild swings up and down intraday last week it’s still on track with the bigger picture wave count, however I’ve had to move some of the locations for them. Because of the depth of this past week+ pullback I don’t think it is Extra Tiny Wave 4 now, but Tiny Wave 4 (T4) instead. I’m referring to the pullback that has been in play since the high on July 27th,…
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ES Morning Update August 11th 2023
Yesterday was another wild swinging day with a strong rally at the open and strong drop the rest of the day. The market put in triple bottom or quadruple bottom… not sure what to call it? There was 2 bottoms on Wednesday and 2 bottoms on Thursday… intraday at least. But on the daily close for both it’s just a double bottom, so it’s at least that. Now odds are good that we’ll start going up today…
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ES Morning Update August 10th 2023
We are getting really close to the bottom. This morning the CPI and/or Job Data could spark some wild swings up and down but it should be the end of the move down and a buying opportunity for the bulls. I don’t know if we open lower on the SPX to take out the 4461.33 low or not as that’s a hour after the data comes out… meaning we might only see the move lower in the premarket? But generally…
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ES Morning Update August The 9th 2023
I got yesterdays date wrong as it was the 8th, and I put the 9th… sorry about that. Today is the real 9th as I checked the calendar this time around (wink, wink). Anyway, the low didn’t hold and we went lower which means the smaller degree waves inside ET4 are subdividing. Almost all wave 2’s and 4’s have ABC’s inside them and not 5 waves. I fell for the clean looking 3 wave decline and…
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ES Morning Update August 9th 2023
Nice and steady move up yesterday… not to fast and not too slow. This is perfect for the bulls as you don’t really want to see them have some huge up day, not until the end of course. That’s when you want too see it as it’s an exhaustion move that squeezes out the shorts, which could happen this Thursday with the CPI and Job Data numbers to be the spark for it. It’s the ol’ trick of tricks where…
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ES Morning Update August 8th 2023
After the futures opened yesterday there were new upside FP’s put out on the SPY and QQQ, which the SPY on projects a high of roughly 4612 on the SPX, which isn’t higher then the 4637 high on March 29th, 2022 but it will complete the waves and that is more important to me (meaning it won’t take it out). And with the current spread of about 20 points between the ES futures and the SPX cash that…
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