#dunning-kruger

[3eanuts]

April 4, 1957 — see The Complete Peanuts 1955-1958

[eucanthos]

As You Like It, Act 5 scene 1

The Dunning-Kruger effect, discovered in 1999 by David Dunning and Justin Kruger, researchers at Cornell University.

It occurs when a person’s lack of knowledge and skill in a certain area causes them to overestimate their own competence. By contrast, this effect also drives those who excel in a given area to think the task is simple for everyone, leading them to underestimate their abilities.

Those who lack knowledge about a given task may also lack the insight that they need to know that they could do better. Not knowing much about something causes them to miss their own mistakes, and lose the opportunity to improve.

For those at the top, the effect occurs because a task or a subject area has become more natural to them and they don’t realize it is challenging to others...

The Dunning-Kruger effect hurts society because it holds talented people back from unleashing their full capabilities. Meanwhile, those who are the least skilled overestimate themselves the most and may be more likely to pursue leadership roles or other positions of power [i.e. former president Trump].

Avoiding the Dunning-Kruger effect involves seeking feedback from others who can help you improve, rather than staying stuck in your inaccurate self-perceptions.

It is important to gain insight into others’ abilities to get more realistic data about where you stand and adjust your perceptions accordingly.

Related Biases:

Anchoring Bias

Bandwagon Effect

Category Size Bias

Cognitive Dissonance

Optimism Bias

Planning Fallacy

A reference to the Socratic philosophical core, also known as the Socratic paradox "ἕν οἶδα, ὅτι οὐδὲν οἶδα" (I know one thing for certain, that I know nothing)

https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/dunning-kruger-effect

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_that_I_know_nothing

https://medium.com/geekculture/dunning-kruger-effect-and-journey-of-a-software-engineer-a35f2ff18f1a

[maxofs2d]

What the Dunning-Kruger effect is and isn’t

As you can see, the findings reported by Kruger and Dunning are often interpreted to suggest that the less competent people are, the more competent they think they are. People who perform worst at a task tend to think they’re god’s gift to said task, and the people who can actually do said task often display excessive modesty. I suspect we find this sort of explanation compelling because it appeals to our implicit just-world theories: we’d like to believe that people who obnoxiously proclaim their excellence at X, Y, and Z must really not be so very good at X, Y, and Z at all, and must be (over)compensating for some actual deficiency; it’s much less pleasant to imagine that people who go around shoving their (alleged) superiority in our faces might really be better than us at what they do.

Unfortunately, Kruger and Dunning never actually provided any support for this type of just-world view; their studies categorically didn’t show that incompetent people are more confident or arrogant than competent people.

[profeminist]

“Dunning-Kruger, for when you’re too arrogant to know you’re incompetent.”

“In the field of psychology, the Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people with low ability at a task overestimate their ability. It is related to the cognitive bias of illusory superiority and comes from the inability of people to recognize their lack of ability. Without the self-awareness of metacognition, people cannot objectively evaluate their competence or incompetence.[1]

As described by social psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger, the bias results from an internal illusion in people of low ability and from an external misperception in people of high ability; that is, "the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others."[1]

Kruger, Justin; Dunning, David (1999). "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments". Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 77 (6): 1121–1134. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.64.2655. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.77.6.1121. PMID 10626367.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

[the-g-recipe]

The Imposter Syndrome

I'm a software engineer. Due to the nature of my profession; I have to keep learning new stuff and keep researching if I want to stay relevant. This is a good thing, I actually love it and it's a major reason why I chose this field. However, it means that I'm often introduced to technologies and concepts that I have no idea about. I also meet a lot of people who know those stuff very well and it seems that they are much better than me. This sometimes causes me to doubt myself and I often find myself asking "Am I actually good or am I just mediocre but faking it? Do the people who tell me how good I am know what they are talking about or do they just not see what my skill level really is?"

I have tried a lot of methods that worked solving this problem and here I will share some of them.

Claudia Ramírez 

1. Get out of your comfort zone

I noticed that the feeling is strongest when I'm in my comfort zone not doing anything challenging. And it makes since because in that case, I have no way to validate my abilities. Always look for new challenges to validate your abilities.

2. Create a circle of trust

Find people who you trust to tell you the truth. Someone who works in your field would be perfect since you can trust that they know what they're talking about. It also needs to be someone who would tell you the truth if they see your skills declining. It can be a friend or one of your mentors or superiors.

3. Focus on the learning process

Instead of focusing on that you don't know a lot of stuff focus on learning them. Understand that it takes time to gain experience no matter how good or talented you are. You have to remember that hard work always wins over talent and it cannot be replaced.

4. Stop comparing yourself to others

People have different abilities and different levels of experience. Some people were more exposed to the stuff that you don't know so naturally they will be better at those stuff. What you can do about it is using your talent and time to learn those stuff.

5. Understand that learning is a process

"The more I learn, the more I realize how much I don't know." -Albert Einstein

Knowing about the existense of the stuff that you don't know is the first step in learning them, otherwise, how else would you learn?

You have to understand that learning is a process that takes time and knowing what you don't know is a crucial part of the process. It actually means that you're on the correct path of learning. Think of how other people have no idea about the existense of what you've found and celebrate your discovery!

Source

The above graph describes what's called the Dunning-Kruger effect. At first you know that you're inexperienced so your confidence is low. But as you start to learn more, your confidence unreasonably sky rockets as you think you've got it. However, as you learn more you realize how little you know and your confidence falls. Then little by little, your confidence starts to rise (reasonably this time) as you learn more and start to see how much you actually know.

Source

Another graph describes where the imposter syndrome actually happens. By observing it you can see that it actually happens when your abilities are high. Having that feeling means that you’re actually learning more and you already know more than most people! In short, having that feeling is a good sign and you should celebrate it (as an assurance that you’re on the right path of learning) rather than let it take over and stop you from learning more and waste time doubting your abilities. Let that feeling motivate you to learn more and be the best you can be.

[lemandro-vive-qui]

“The fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” (Il problema dell'umanità è che gli sciocchi e i fanatici sono estremamente sicuri di loro stessi, mentre le persone più sagge sono piene di dubbi) [Bertrand Russell]

[aitan]

[...] Gli intelligenti vivono dilaniati dai dubbi e, dubitando di tutto, dubitano anche delle loro stesse capacità cognitive; mentre gli stolti, sovrastimandosi, si riconoscono un’intelligenza che non hanno e si muovono nel mondo con una tale sicurezza di sé che finiscono per convincere anche gli altri [...] di possedere competenze e capacità di cui sono del tutto o molto sprovvisti.

Oggi anche la psicologia moderna dà man forte a questo concetti, nella misura in cui categorizza tanto i ciucci presuntuosi quanto gli intelligenti autocritici nell’ambito della distorsione cognitiva conosciuta come "Effetto Dunning-Kruger", dal nome dei due studiosi che hanno misurato sperimentalmente la propensione degli incompetenti a sopravvalutarsi e, di conseguenza, a comportarsi in modo supponente, assertivo e decisionista.

Insomma, Dunning e Kruger hanno dimostrato una cosa che era nota almeno da un paio di millenni, arrivando alla conclusione che il mondo è pieno di una massa di ignoranti che, per dirla col Socrate di Platone, “s’illude di sapere e ignora così perfino la sua stessa ignoranza”, laddove, è risaputo, il saggio “sa di non sapere” e si fa sopraffare dai dubbi e dalle incertezze.

______

Da "L’indecisione degli intelligenti e la sicumera degli imbecilli"

[asklittlepip]

I knew about the lemon juice idiot, as I heard about it years ago in some list about moronic criminals, but had no idea it led to the Dunning-Krueger studies. So even if you already know about the topics here, you might learn something! And if not, well, you get to listen to the soothing voice of Stephen Fry.

This was posted years ago, but is relevant now more than ever, when the President takes credit for additional things he did not do. The wall? Fraud. And only five miles actually new. Healthcare? Literally stole this from Obama. A new treatment for the coronavirus? Actually, not new at all; since it began, even! And here he is a month ago mentioning it! And then this was him yesterday, constantly misprouncing a simple word like plasma repeatedly.

Yet, he was able to constantly say hydroxychloroquine. How odd. Some think he wouldn’t be so petty over a few hundred dollars. And then I point out the 13 cent incident, or how he still harbors a grudge over comments from twenty years ago.

He absolutely would rob you for spare change if he thought he could. He cheated Tiger Woods in a golf game for fuck’s sake. I know, I know, there’s always something worse, but if I can convince more folks to see the fascist elephant in the room (ooh.. good pun.. feel free to use that!), it’ll be worth it.

Also! That last link? Holy shit, the dude who came up with that fought corruption and helped create the modern Santa Claus? Neat. Always learn! Every day!