May 8, 2024
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Something to be said about pressure-washing her snatch until she can't walk.
Fertiliser Affordability: It’s All About the Tariffs
I intentionally delayed my March affordability analysis, as it was quite clear that the White House's announcement of new import tariffs would have some impact on both agricultural commodities and fertiliser prices.
I still believe it’s a bit too early to draw definitive conclusions about the consequences of the newly announced tariffs, even though President Trump has postponed their implementation by three months. Nevertheless, some price impact is already visible, particularly in the US.
To recap, I use recent CBOT values for wheat and corn and compare them with FOB per short tonne prices of DAP and urea in NOLA.
So, let’s begin.
Key Inputs: 11 April 2025 vs. February 2025
Here’s how the numbers compare:
Corn Price: $4.97 per bushel (up from $4.75 in February)
Wheat Price: $5.70 per bushel (up from $5.65 in February and from a low of $5.45 on 4 March 2025)
Urea FOB NOLA: $408 per short tonne (up from $385 in February)
DAP FOB NOLA: $645 per short tonne (up from $618 in February)
Now, let’s return to our relatively simple affordability calculations and analysis.
Affordability Ratios (2024–2025)
Affordability is calculated as the ratio of crop prices to fertiliser prices, offering a clearer understanding of the cost burden on producers.
Urea Affordability
Corn Producers
Month Ratio
June 0.0146
July 0.0145
August 0.0141
September 0.0138
October 0.0141
November 0.0141
December 0.0138
January 0.01279
February 0.01234
March 0.01218
Analysis: Affordability for corn producers has declined for the fifth consecutive month, now reaching its lowest level since I began tracking in June 2024.
Wheat Producers
Month Ratio
June 0.0177
July 0.0176
August 0.0173
September 0.0171
October 0.0171
November 0.0179
December 0.0166
January 0.01486
February 0.01468
March 0.01397
Analysis: After a brief improvement in February, wheat affordability dropped sharply in March and is now at its lowest point since June 2024.
DAP Affordability
Corn Producers
Month Ratio
June 0.0079
July 0.0078
August 0.0076
September 0.0073
October 0.0073
November 0.0073
December 0.0072
January 0.0085
February 0.0077
March 0.0077
Analysis: Impressively, despite sharp fluctuations in both corn and urea prices, the DAP affordability ratio for corn producers remained unchanged to the fourth decimal place.
Wheat Producers
Month Ratio
June 0.0098
July 0.0097
August 0.0095
September 0.0093
October 0.0093
November 0.0096
December 0.0095
January 0.0098
February 0.0091
March 0.0088
Analysis: This is now the lowest index since June 2024, when I began tracking affordability.
Comparison to February
Urea:
Corn producers: Affordability decreased by 1.29% in March 2025
Wheat producers: Affordability dropped by 4.83%
DAP:
Corn producers: Affordability remained unchanged
Wheat producers: Affordability fell by 3.30%. Analysis of Trends
The main decrease in affordability was driven by a sharp rise in fertiliser prices: urea increased by 5.97%, and DAP by 4.37%.
I keep asking myself how long this decline in affordability can continue and when the market will reach its resistance point. That said, both corn and wheat prices still appear relatively healthy according to analysts.
We’ve just entered Q2 2025, a period when nitrogen fertiliser demand typically slows in the Northern Hemisphere. It will be interesting to see how things develop over the next 30 days—and whether tariffs will exert further pressure on affordability.
I’m also considering whether the new tariff structure warrants a revision to my affordability methodology.
The look goddess is got when new on a site 😍
pages 225 and 226 - has my life been productive?
No kids that I know of. No party I could say no to. Working just enough (see previous answer). Minimal responsibility for destruction of the rain forest (had a bit of a passion for açaí berries in the mid oughts I will admit). Tried to feel good. Tried to make others feel good.
But I don't remember starting any factories, so I guess the answer is no.
But I don't get it MAN.
This person is called screaming debbie by the way, because those orbs come screaming at you when you're playing the game orbs.
