How Jon could turn on Dany in season 8, and why he hasn’t already.
I just want to remind everyone, that Jon has not seen Dany’s “bad qualities” yet. The qualities which make them true foils. The qualities which make them total opposite characters with opposite goals.
In my “This is Not a Love Story” posts (which I still haven’t finished yet, yay me) I pointed out that Jon sees nothing that could make him like Dany until episode 5. And that ‘thing’ is the people she surrounds herself with, not herself exactly.
Dany has Jorah Mormont, who Jon knows as a criminal and a coward, as a dear and close friend. Jorah seems to worship her and is loyal to her, so Jon seeing her act so kindly to Jorah could tell Jon that she might be an admirable and forgiving person. That’s the first time he’s like “well maybe she does have a heart, after all.”
Then he sees that she has Theon as an ally. Theon has done great atrocities to House Stark, but it’s Theons actions in helping Sansa escape that keep Jon from going full rage mode and just killing him. (After Jon’s whole “forgiveness” arc from the first episode, this means his anger is really, really boiling for Theon.) So add Theon as another into the list of Dany’s “rag tag team of misfits” that Jon can see, which goes towards Dany’s forgiving nature.
Dany’s trusted Hand is Tyrion, a Lannister and a dwarf. Would an evil qerson who doesn’t care for humanity have a dwarf as her hand? A dwarf who really left an impact on Jon in S1 with his “bastards, cripples and broken things” mindset? She doesn’t care that he’s a Lannister or a dwarf and he’s the highest rank in her council. That could go to her “good heart”.
She has loyal people who used to be slaves, but are not anymore because of Dany’s actions. The speech from Missandei paints the picture clearer for Jon to think Dany is actually a good and kind leader. She inspires the broken.
Dany lets him mine the Dragonglass, even if she’s cold and impolite when she decides to let him.
Jon’s first impression of Dany is that she is entitled, vengeful, and rude. Evidenced by the throne room scene, the imprisonment, her reluctance to refer to him by his title, her insistence that he bend the knee to get anything from her, etc. It’s only when he talks to those around her, and sees who she has allied herself with, that he might have any reason to think she’s not truly a bad ruler.
But while Jon is imprisoned on Dragonstone, he can’t see the “bad things” she does first hand. He’s not there when she burns the Tarlys alive for not kneeling. He’s not there to see her growing paranoia at her council. He’s not there to see the total destruction her dragons and Dothraki army can cause to human soldiers. On Dragonstone, all he sees is loyal followers, an affinity for outcasts, and mother fucking dragons.
When Dany comes to save them from the Wight Hunt, Jon sees a perfect weapon against the Night King, and he sees a woman willing to go into battle herself to save someone who has been reluctant to bow to her.
In the beginning Jon saw some of her bad qualities. He saw a spoiled girl sitting on a throne demanding him to kneel. He saw a woman who imprisioned him against his will on an island when he said no. He saw an angry Targaryan lash out at her Hand on a beach and threaten Kings Landing with fire, only to be calmed by Jon’s own words. He saw her fly off on a dragon and come back pretty proud of herself for killing her enemies.
But he didn’t see her when she was on that dragon. He didn’t see her when she’s alone with her council. He didn’t see the cold way she executed those who didn’t kneel.
So I feel like Jon fell into the same mindset as many of her other followers did, and hell, even the viewers did in the earlier seasons. But once he sees her true actions - the burning, the kneeling, the “I will take what’s mine with fire and blood” that might come out in season 8, he will not be able to overlook that.
She is his opposite when it comes to these things. Jon does not want more death. He prefers forgiveness (as shown in his treatment towards the Umbers and Karstarks vs Dany’s treatment of the Tarlys). He didnt want to be King, all he wants is to save Westeros from the incoming Night King, whereas Dany is coming to Westeros to conquer and take back the Iron Throne, and the fight for the Night King is a side distraction. He is focused on one thing, and one thing only, the Night King. Dany is focused on the Throne.
Do you really think that if Jon were there when she burnt the Tarlys that he would have just stood by and watched? Do you really think he would have bent the knee after seeing that?
I mean, the more and more I analyze their actual scenes together, the more I’m convinced there is some version of political!Jon or sacrificial!Jon going on. She really gave him no other choice but to bend the knee if he wanted her help. Yes, she offered before he officially bent the knee, and this at first really frickin bothered me, but Jon had just seen the true power of her dragons for the first time. He needed to lock that weapon down because it’s literally the only way they could truly win against the Night King, and there’s no better way to make sure she’s doesn’t change her mind later than to kneel and give her what she wants.
When Jon bent the knee, he had not seen her bad qualities. If Dany continues to go dark, to see more Targaryan come out, to lose her self control that so many people have had to keep in check for seasons now, Jon will peace out so fucking fast.
I’m on the fence about true undercover!jon. I don’t flat out deny it but I can’t say I definitively 100% believe in it. I doubt he went down to Dragonstone with the intentions of deceiving her, or with a pre-planned plot with Sansa. My first instinct with Jon is to think he’s sacrificial. That after he saw how un-cooperative Dany is, he knew he was going to have to sacrifice everything he ever wanted to save Westeros from the White Walkers. To give up his power, (ahem ignore his feelings for his half-sister ahem) and get Dany on his side by any means necessary. (This also doesn’t negate the possibility that he thinks the North will reject Dany AND Jon and crown Sansa instead.) I don’t think he loves Dany though. There’s just nothing really there to suggest love. Everything there to suggest he was pushed into a corner.
So, if you take UCL out of the equation, there’s still reason to think Jon will turn on Dany in S8. Dany at her worst, represents everything Jon is against at his best. There’s no way a relationship, romantic, political or otherwise, can survive when Jon is supposed to be this good, honorable, hero. He hasn’t seen her dark side as of now, but he will.
