Recently a question thread was asked about how old some of the Toshi girls are. Well, using math I have actually come to explanations for the odd numbers.
How could Toshikana be a year older than Toshiteru?
Showing my work:
-Toshiteru (とし輝) retired in 2013 while she was either 20 going on 21 or 21 going on 22. That makes her birth year 1991 or 1992 and 15 or 16 at the time of her debut in September 2007.
-Assuming that the video is correct and Toshikana (とし夏菜) is a year older than Toshiteru, her birth year would be 1990 or 1991.
-At the time of Kana’s debut in December 2009 Teru would have been 17 or 18 years old, meaning that Kana was 18 or 19.
-18 or 19 is far too old to start as a maiko (unless it’s Kamishichiken), so that seems highly unlikely.
-However, if her birth year was 1991 and her birthday was at the very end of December then she would have been 17 about to be 18 at the time of her debut, which is stretching it but does make it plausible.
-So, assuming that her birthday is at the very end of December, in February 2014 at the time of her erikae Toshikana was 22.
-The cut off for a maiko is 21 and once you reach 22 you’re forced to retire.
-But, if she had just turned 22 less than 2 months earlier then they may have just let it slide.
-But, what if Teru and Kana were both born in the same year and Kana’s birthday was before Teru? That could then make Kana’s birth year 1992, her age at debut 17, equal to that of Teru who had caught up by then, and age 21 (going on 22) at the time of her erikae in early 2014.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is that Toshikana and Toshiteru are born in the same year, yet Kana’s birthday is before Teru’s.
With that in mind, we can now go back to the original question:
How old was Toshimana when she debuted and then when she had her erikae?
Showing my work:
-From two various sources, I found that Toshimana (とし真菜) was 20 years old in May 2013, and 15 in March 2009.
-If she had turned 15 just before that image then her birth year would be 1994, and if her birthday was after March then her birth year would be 1993.
-Going with her being 15 in March 2009 that means that she was most likely 16 (going on 17) at the time of her misedashi in January 2010 and her birth year being 1993, she turned 16 shortly after that photo was taken.
-Her erikae was March 2013, so by that logic she was either 19 or 20.
-If she was 19 at the time of her erikae then her birthday would have been somewhere between March and May to make her be 20 in May 2013.
-Let’s go back and say she was born between January and March and she had just turned 15 in the first instance of March 2009, making her birth year 1994.
-This would then put her misedashi right before or right after her 16th birthday in January 2010.
-That would then mean that she was 18 or 19 at the time of her erikae in March 2013, which seems too young as a maiko is usually 20 or 21 when she turns her collar.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is that she was 19 at the time of her erikae and turned 20 shortly afterwards, her birth year is 1993, and she’s 1 year younger than both Toshiteru and Toshikana.