I like your Maul-Obi-Wan-Ahsoka analysis, but I can't agree that Maul had Anakin in his sights as far as the murder of Satine. For me, his vision of Anakin came after that. Before, Maul had the ambition of creating a power block around Mandalore capable of opposing the Republic directly. After, he knows he can only grasp power in the shadows. I think his abandonment of the Mandalorians ties into that : as loyal and efficient as they are, they're not meant for hiding and are thus obsolete.
First of all, thank you friend, for reading and responding!
I do agree that Maul can only grasp power through surrogates, as it’s far too dangerous for him to try and rule anyone outright (which is an interesting question when it comes to Obi-wan’s rendering of aid - both times - to Mandalore. Because on the surface, to the Republic, at least, this is only a political coup on a neutral planet and with Almec being in charge, there’s no way anyone outside Death Watch and the Jedi would truly know what was going on, which, in terms of optics, the holonet, and Senators...is not a good thing - for Obi-wan, at least.)
And yes, Maul wanted that power block, whether to oppose the Republic to Palpy’s upcoming Empire and that move was a brilliant way of playing both sides just in case.
I still personally think Maul had it in for Anakin at least as early as Satine (if not by Florrum, although he wasn’t ready to execute the plan at that point), or else why keep Obi-wan alive after killing Satine? Maul either wanted bait for Anakin or wanted to watch Obes turn, the latter of which was the far more dangerous proposition, as a dark!Obi-wan would be dangerous and Maul wouldn’t have the leverage over a dark!Obes that, let’s say, a Dooku would.
Now, this doesn’t necessarily conflict with Maul’s eventual abandonment of the Mandalorians - they were, in the end, tools for a greater plan, although never obsolete (if there’s one thing we know about Mandalorians, it’s that they don’t, as a people, necessarily die well. Or at all. Kind of like Maul, actually. :D