Some thoughts on ADOS and TWOW, per POV
Summarizing some thoughts about what might happen to the various POV characters in TWOW and ADOS. OK, more TWOW thoughts but I don’t know where the line will be drawn – only that I expect the Fall of the Wall to take place more towards the middle than the end of TWOW, in analogy of the Red Wedding in ASOS:
· Prologue While we don’t know who the prologue POV will be, Martin has said that Jeyne Westerling will appear in it but not necessarily as the POV . Last we saw her was in Jaime VII AFFC, when she and the Westerlings are leaving Riverrun on the way back to the Westerlands. Jaime has instructed Ser Forley Prester to keep archers near her, because she’d be twice as dangerous as Edmure were she to escape. Jaime was also very concerned about a surprise attack on the convoy, which is also bringing Edmure to Casterly Rock.
I am inclined to agree with turtle-paced and goodqueenaly that the prologue will involve an attack by the Brotherhood without Banners on the convoy – and more pertinently, that Forley Prester will have Jeyne killed. We don’t have the payoff for Edmure’s “My people. They were afraid” yet so I think he’ll survive.
Whether he’ll be freed or not is a bit of a tougher question, since we don’t have a clear notion on whether the Brotherhood without Banners has the numbers to overwhelm the Lannisters, even accounting for the tactical possibilities of a surprise ambush and that some Riverlords might be in cahoots with the Brotherhood without Banners. Two other considerations:
Jaime ADWD has him meet Brienne close to Pennytree, which is not far from Riverrun, and simple logistical considerations make me think that the convoy will not make it to the Westerlands. The lack of mention in the ADWD epilogue leaves two possibilities: Either that the attack on the convoy had no remarkable results, or that it left no survivors capable of warning King’s Landing. I tend to think the latter is more likely, but it’s a bit of a mystery.
· Sansa has a preview chapter where we are introduced to her matchmaking and her impending liaison with Harry the Heir. However, not only were there strong indications in Alayne AFFC that Robert Arryn is at risk of being overdosed with sweetsleep, which as we know from Arya’s AFFC chapters can be used as a poison when overdosed. Crucially, in the Alayne TWOW chapter we are told that “Maester Coleman would have made certain that he drank a strong dose of sweetmilk before the feast, but even so.” (sweetmilk = sweetsleep, per Alayne II AFFC) and it’s in one of the last lines of the chapter. I think odds that Alayne II TWOW starts with Robert Arryn dead are quite high.
Separately, one Ser Shadrich who has been looking for Sansa (Brienne AFFC) has also appeared in the Vale. I think it’s quite likely that he’ll attempt to kidnap Alayne/Sansa, thus revealing that Alayne Stone is actually Sansa Stark. I concur with turtle-paced that this kidnapping won’t be successful – Sansa’s been a prisoner for long enough – but it will reveal her identity all the same.
From thereon it gets hazy, since I don’t follow Sansa’s story very closely, but a few generalities. This will probably force Littlefinger’s hand too, since him hiding away Sansa Stark immediately signals King’s Landing that he wasn’t working for them. I kinda think that Littlefinger will be advancing Sansa’s claim to the North against Stannis and whichever Stark he is sponsoring (I tend to think Rickon) … but the Stark encounter will be a family reunion, not a political dispute, and I can see Littlefinger’s execution happening in a camp outside of Winterfell (c.f “castle made of snow” in the Ghost of High Heart vision)
· Arya has a preview chapter in which she murders one of Harys Swyft’s guards. Arya was already in trouble with the Faceless Men before, for killing people for her own reasons rather than the FM’s, and I can see this murder – politically sensitive assassination of the guard of the envoy of King’s Landing to Braavos’s Iron Bank – will probably result in them icing her out. Probably even an assassination attempt, but if memory serves they don’t know her warging abilities, which might save her then.
Separately, in Theon TWOW we’ve seen Stannis give orders to Justin Massey to go to Braavos with Tycho Nestoris and to get sellswords – and crucially, to do so even if he gets news that Stannis is dead. And to bring Jeyne Poole – who Stannis thinks is Arya – to Jon Snow. However, Jon Snow was assassinated, so I suspect that Massey will bring her to Braavos as well. Where she might encounter the real Arya, thus breaking Arya from her acting.
I think there is the possibility that Justin Massey upon finding the real Arya tries to get her in his control. On her part, there is the link to Nymeria who is in the Riverlands. I concur with @turtle-paced that it is thematically sound for Arya to encounter Lady Stoneheart but I am kinda unsure how to get them together if so. At any rate, she'll meet the other Starks again in Winterfell - maybe with Brienne's or Justin Massey's help to get there, maybe just her and Nymeria alone.
· It’s commonly speculated that one reason for the long holdup of TWOW is Bran. Now, we’ve been told that “Hold the Door” happens in the books as well, and we’ve seen that Bran is increasingly brainjacking Hodor. I think it’s likely that eventually the wights and White Walkers will breach Bloodraven’s cave and Bran will brainjack Hodor to escape, perhaps with Benjen’s help … but unlike in the show, I expect Meera and Benjen to be a lot more critical about the brainjacking.
Separately, Jojen. I don’t think that Jojen is already dead, but the “Today is not the day I die” makes me think that he knows not only that he’ll die but also when. I wouldn’t be surprised if Meera and Howland also know this.
The big question I have is when exactly the cave-breaching happens – middle TWOW?
· Jon has been assassinated in his last ADWD chapter and probably slipped into Ghost. So we might see a chapter titled “Ghost”. Now, unlike others I don’t buy the hypothesis that Melisandre will knowingly resurrect him – Thoros is quite clear in the Arya chapters (ACOK or ASOS) that him resurrecting Beric Dondarrion was a miracle he didn’t expect, and there is no evidence that Melisandre knows that this is possible at all. The notion that Stoneheart might sacrifice herself for Jon is massively out of character and creates numerous timeline issues.
My thinking is that Melisandre will accidentally resurrect Jon, when she’s about to burn his body. The resurrected Jon will likely be a different personality than his pre-resurrection self, although I must stress that even in Stoneheart’s case it wasn’t a total character rewrite – Catelyn did slit Aegon Frey’s throat in her last seconds – and Jon has Ghost to keep his soul safe from the void. Another thing is that other characters will probably react with hostility to Jon, since all walking dead they have seen so far were evil (another of the many reasons why I don’t buy Jon as King in the North in the books at all), so it’s possible he’ll be cast out … at least until he reunites with his family and/or Daenerys. How the R+L=J reveal plays out in the books I am not sure.
· Daenerys has in her last ADWD chapter embraced “fire and blood” and has already found Khal Jhaqo’s khalasar. Back in Daenerys IX AGoT she had sworn she’d punish him for Eroeh’s rape – I think it’s quite likely that unlike in the show, Drogon will dispatch Jhaqo as she promised. Possibly she’ll take control of his khalasar too in that case, which would give her the resources needed to get anointed as Mare who will ride the World back in Vaes Dothrak.
One question I have is whether Daenerys will return to Meereen or immediately set off for Pentos and/or Volantis. Between Benerro’s threat that Volantis will burn if it picks up weapons against Daenerys and Tyrion’s musing about how a khalasar might attack one of the cities north of Volantis to distract the troops from Volantis proper, she’ll probably stop at Volantis.
I think there will also be a point where Daenerys will have to chose between heading to the Wall – possibly at Marwyn’s and/or Quaithe’s urging – or heading to King’s Landing to deal with Aegon. And I expect her to choose poorly at first – go for King’s Landing and accidentally ignite Aerys’ wildfire caches with dragonfire – later make a better choice to reject Euron’s advances and burn him alive & finally turn north and break the Others’ Siege of Winterfell with dragonfire, aided by Tyrion and Jon Snow.
I am a little hazy of how her relationships with Jon Snow and Tyrion Lannister will go. However, while I think that the three dragonriders will dispatch the Others without much difficulty, they’ll realize that the Heart of Winter is still around to begin another invasion. In ADWD Daenerys has said that a queen belongs to the realm not herself, so I think her (and Tyrion’s and Jon’s) story ends with a kamikaze run of the dragonriders onto the Heart of Winter. They’ll not return (I half expect Martin to leave an unified Westeros, but with each Lord Paramount symbolically swearing fealty to the disappeared queen and destroyed Iron Throne á la stewards of Gondor) but the characters will know (end of ADOS) that the dragonriders succeeded because the normal seasons will return
· Tyrion has two preview chapters, where he is involving himself in the battle of Meereen. I think this one ends with a crushing defeat of the pro-slavery forces … but for Tyrion, it will be the moment he’ll bond with one of the dragons (Viserion, I tend to think). There are hints in Tyrion’s ADWD chapters that he’ll become a dragonrider – note that Martin said that not all heads of the dragon have to be Targaryens. Where he goes after that I don’t know at all; Martin has said that his interactions with Daenerys in TWOW will be brief and while I expect him to go for Casterly Rock at some point, I don’t know much about the timeline.
· Theon has a preview chapter where he is Stannis’ prisoner and meets Asha again. I have written about Stannis’ TWOW storyline before, so I’ll reference people back to it. I don’t think he’ll live long after Stannis seizes Winterfell, though.
· Davos is going to go to Skagos to recover Rickon … and possibly to recover information that Skagos has sources of obsidian, which is an effective anti-White Walker weapon. I have some doubts that he’ll bring Rickon immediately to White Harbor, though – from the outside, Wyman Manderly’s actions in Winterfell might look very double-dealy, and Robett Glover’s statement that Stannis is not their king doesn’t raise confidence. How Davos will convince Osha and Rickon to come with him, I have no idea – perhaps Bran will help them along?
Regardless, I sort of expect that as the White Walkers close onto Winterfell, Davos will be separated from Stannis and thus unable to stop Stannis from burning Shireen alive. I am a bit more sure that this won’t lead to a complete break between the two men – my expectation is that Stannis and/or Daenerys will legitimize Edric Storm as his last royal act and entrust Davos to carry it out, before Stannis takes the black.
· Samwell’s story will initially be about Citadel politics and the fascinating world of medieval universities and the Citadel’s denial that magic is a thing … then Euron brings forth the “towers by the sea” vision and suddenly Oldtown finds itself under supernatural attack.
While the timeline issue I’ll discuss under Aeron means that Leyton Hightower who is “consulting books of spells” with his daughter Malora will probably be able to hold off Euron for a bit, but eventually the city will fall, Samwell will lose his horn – the Horn of Joramun - and he and Alleras/Sarella will watch as Euron blows the Horn of Joramun from the Hightower, bringing forth the Fall of the Wall and Daenerys’ “smoking tower” vision.
I half-expect that as Samwell flees Oldtown, he’ll eventually meet his father Randyll again, who has in the meantime turned cloak to Aegon and is probably marching south to get the fealty of the Tyrells and/or stop Euron – as we’ve heard in Samwell’s AFFC chapters, if Oldtown falls so falls the realm. I further expect that Randyll will have not become any more positive about his son nor about Sarella Sand (“black Dornish bastard woman archer” can’t be something that the Rape Apologist approves of) and blow off any warning about Euron being supernaturally empowered … only to get a grisly death at the hand of whichever dragon Euron has hijacked.
Where Samwell gets from there I am not sure, but I expect him to survive. It’s not his job to kill Euron, though.
· Jaime has the valonqar prophecy to act on, but first he has to survive Stoneheart’s clutches. Since she doesn’t give fair trials and neither Brienne nor Jaime are capable of fighting, a trial by combat is out of the question. I find it more likely that Late Walder’s pettiness induces him to leave the Twins to witness the wedding of Daven and the unnamed Frey woman, which will happen on the neutral between-Lannisters-and-Freys territory of Riverrun, thus allowing him to humiliate the Tullys in their own castle. Only that the Brotherhood without Banners will infiltrate Riverrun (probably by fire, considering Catelyn’s thoughts about what she’d like to have done to Cersei and/or Walder) and massacre Late Walder, Genna and Emmon and all other Freys and Lannisters there (“second Red Wedding”) and make Jaime watch. I kinda think that Jaime’s orders to the Freys to hand over their hostages in AFFC are a prelude to the Brotherhood without Banners to free them as well, thus as the massacre winds down the Riverlands will rise in rebellion. I think at this point Brienne or a Lannister bannerman lucky enough to survive the will break out Jaime, who will flee to King’s Landing … and also itch to confront Cersei, who meanwhile has had her “innocence” of the incest “established” by way of her trial. What happens after valonqar to Jaime I don’t know, but I expect his motivation during the valonqar moment will be a combination of anger at Cersei’s infidelity and at whatever heinous thing she’s about to do.
· Unlike some other people, I think Cersei’s fall and death will happen before the end of TWOW. But first, she’ll win her trial by combat – Ser Robert Strong can probably mop the floor with the Faith’s champion, which for thematic and also story reasons is most likely Lancel Lannister (Lancel probably told the sparrows about his role in Robert’s death, so he’ll have to atone for that sin). However, I think that Margaery Tyrell will be acquitted in her trial by seven as well, with or without the help of Mace’s army. In Arya TWOW we are told that Lannister toady Harys Swyft is in Braavos and not to return without gold or “the queen will have his head”, which to me says that Cersei muscles her way back into the regency over Tommen. There is the question of who murdered Kevan that will likely have the Tyrells and Cersei’s team at each other’s throats, perhaps involving the Dornish arrivals per Varys’ prediction in the ADWD epilogue.
However, I don’t think Tommen is long for that world. Turtle-paced has noted that Cersei finding a chicken in an egg she breaks in AFFC might be indicative that Tommen is going to die violently, probably from his mother’s hand. My prediction: Cersei bamboozles Mace long enough to get him out of King’s Landing (c.f Arianne II TWOW) then sends Robert Strong to liquidate Margaery. During said liquidation, Tommen is killed, making Myrcella queen. But Myrcella comes with the murderous Sand Snakes, and when Arianne declares for Aegon they’ll be exposed and will take Myrcella down – probably by poison. Without any heirs left, Rosby and Stokeworth in the hands of people unfriendly to Cersei, and Aegon marching on King’s Landing, I expect Cersei to be deposed very quickly. Robert Strong will see to it that she survives (probably killing Qyburn as well when he tries to jump ship) said deposition until Jaime arrives. Might she try to set off wildfire caches before valonqar happens?
I don’t think that her surviving to Casterly Rock makes a ton of sense, and sounds more like filler than a valuable plot line. Also, the YMBQ prophecy requires the YMBQ to not only cast Cersei down but also take all what she holds dear – which includes Tommen and Myrcella. That implies to me that Cersei’s overthrow will coincide with the death of her remaining children … and while a number of characters could be the YMBQ, Arianne’s the best one in terms of having a connection to their deaths (through the Sand Snakes)
· Brienne is now facing that dilemma Jaime faced with the Mad King – either betray her oaths to Catelyn or do the unknightly thing to kill Jaime on Stoneheart’s demand. I think that Jaime meeting Stoneheart alive is a must for story reasons, and I can see Jaime knight Brienne probably around the second Red Wedding. Whether she outlives that is less certain – I can see thematic value both in her dying to save someone (“no chance, and no choice”) or surviving to meet Arya.
· Areo to be honest I don’t know where he’ll go. Killing Balon Swann, sure. Hunting Darkstar and possibly get us some more details about House Dayne and the Tower of Joy, most likely too. Perhaps pursuing Obara, who might very well itching to carry out her burn-down-Oldtown plot. But here I am up in the air.
· Arianne has two preview chapters where she is getting into Aegon’s orbit. I think turtle-paced has it right again – she is still looking to make sure that she doesn’t get upstaged by Quentyn, and doesn’t know he is already dead. On his part, Aegon is seeking allies in Westeros and apart from the “friends in the Reach” who will probably backstab Mace during the impending battle of Storm’s End, Dorne is a good candidate. If Daenerys doesn’t come straightaway and/or Gerris Drinkwater’s most likely economical-with-the-truth it-was-all-Daenerys’-fault account of Quentyn’s death hits the Martells, I can see Arianne and Aegon trying and succeeding at concluding a marriage alliance.
One point to consider is what effect, if any, Arianne might have on Aegon. I don’t know what effect it might have on other policy aspects but I suspect that the political blind spots turtle-paced noted in her AFFC chapters and Dorne’s legend of resisting the dragons will make her a hardliner in Aegon’s court when Daenerys comes and challenges Aegon for the Iron Throne. Either way, I think she dies with Aegon when the wildfire caches under King’s Landing blow up.
· Asha I have discussed elsewhere, implying that she survives and Theon doesn’t. She’ll spend some time as Stannis’ prisoner, but not for long. What will result in her being freed, I dunno, but the most likely point are the Ironborn troops still holding Torrhen’s Square. I can see Stannis carrying out a prisoner exchange. I don’t know much about how her story continues, but I expect her to run the Iron Islands at the end.
· Aeron has a preview chapter that gets really really eldritch. I think @poorquentyn’s Eldritch Apocalypse theory – Euron sacrifices his and the Redwynes’ fleet off the Whispering Sound and thus brings forth Melisandre’s “towers by the sea” vision and his own apotheosis – is how it will work, and Aeron will not survive for long. I believe Martin has said that he didn’t imply that Aeron only gets one chapter in TWOW; if there is an Aeron II TWOW it might be very Lovecraftian.
However, I’d like to note a major timeline issue: According to the fan timeline Euron sails towards the Redwyne fleet more than a month before Jon’s assassination. It might take less than three weeks for a ship to reach Oldtown from Dorne’s direction (per Samwell V AFFC) so “towers by the sea” might happen a month or so before Jon’s assassination. Can Oldtown really resist more than a month? How much allowance is there given Martin’s fuzzy timelines? I don’t know how Martin will handle this but perhaps the fall of the Wall happens quite early in TWOW (fun fact: apparently Martin said that the cover image of TWOW with the horns is a real thing, at least in 2016
· Victarion has a preview chapter where he is increasingly obsessed with Dragonbinder, despite the horn itself saying that no mortal man can sound it and live. I think that he'll eventually blow the horn ... and die watching one of the dragons head west to Euron, proving that at the end his brother was always a step ahead.
· Jon Connington is honestly one character I don’t find that interesting, so I’ll just say that the theory that the bell-induced-Sack-of-King’s-Landing from the series might be very well JonCon’s work in the books. Specifically, that when Aegon realizes he can’t win against Daenerys and rings the bells in surrender, JonCon will be remembered of the bells of Stoney Sept he hates so much, refuse to surrender his dream to do right by Rhaegar, and disobey the order to disastrous results.
· Barristan has two preview chapters which strongly hint that a) he’ll win the battle for Meereen and b) that the Shavepate has been left behind in Meereen. I expect that Shavepate will take the opportunity to act on his constantly expressed desire to kill the noble hostages of Meereen’s Great Masters, and act on it. Perhaps he’ll even liquidate all of the Great Masters (not already on his side) while he’s at it. So when Barristan comes back he’ll find the scene of a massacre. I think that Barristan will turn on Shavepate and die in the process.
· Melisandre’s big flaw is that she doesn’t recognize her fallibility. As Castle Black descends into chaos with the news of Stannis’ death and Jon’s assassination, I think she might get an inkling that Stannis is actually still alive – either by asking her fires the right questions, or by way of Stannis sending a raven right after seizing Winterfell, so that it reaches Castle Black soon after the Pink Letter one (which was sent by Ramsay – I don’t think theories that anyone but him wrote the Pink Letter have any merit, the motive question doesn’t really permit it). And while burning Shireen’s is Stannis’ decision, I can’t imagine that he’d do it without some advice by Melisandre – especially since someone has to bring Shireen to Winterfell first – meaning that she won’t be doubting that Stannis is Azor Ahai … until Shireen’s sacrifice happens and it fails. How that ends for Melisandre I don’t know, but she probably doesn’t survive that.
I am pretty certain that this happens in ADOS not TWOW, probably close to Daenerys’ arrival at Winterfell, because Stannis doesn’t really contemplate such drastic means until the situation is really desperate (notice how a big sacrifice isn’t even brought up as a possibility in ADWD after Davos brought Edric Storm away?) and Stannis being one of the lies for Daenerys to slay to me implies a close chronological relationship between her arrival in Winterfell and the burning of Shireen. Which happens in Winterfell, not Castle Black – Melisandre wanted to burn Edric Storm to awake a dragon in Dragonstone, that legendary dragonegg mentioned in stories about the Dance of the Dragons might be a good candidate in Winterfell, but I can’t imagine Melisandre or Stannis betting the house on some random location.
