my 2026-27 grand prix final predictions: Women's Edition, part 1
instead of speculating about grand prix assignments, here's my tierlist for most to least likely to make grand prix final and my overall opinions about their skating! reminder this is just the product of my off season boredom, don't take anything i say too seriously lmao.
I Would Be Surprised If They Are Not There:
🇺🇸 Amber Glenn - the past two seasons, Amber has been killing her grand prixes and i would not be surprised if she does continues to do so. Amber's narrative tends to be "she's amazing and gold medal contender for every event but she tends to choke" but that's not really true of her grand prixes. She struggled at this season's grand prix final but she was also the champion at the one before so really whose to say? Her triple axel is still rock solid and I'm a 30 for 2030 truther. Go Amber!
🇯🇵 Mone Chiba - She's the one people are looking to the most to be the new top Japanese girl since she's had a longer senior track record and her phenomenal World's performance, but i'm scared for that means for her this upcoming season. At Grand Prix Final and Four Continents you can tell how heavy the idea of winning GPF and 4CC and the overall Olympic pressure were weighing on her. Of course, Mone did great at the Olympics itself, but she got veryy tight during her GPF free skate and placed last in segment costing her a medal. Similarly at 4CC, even though she did medal, she could have WON if she wasn't so nervous. That being said, Mone might have a chip on her shoulder for being the only Japanese girl to not medal at the Olympics and the only pewter skater to not get invited to the gala. She might rise to the challenge and be solid as rock or crumble under the pressure. I have absolutely no idea. I can only hope that the pressure of filling Kaori's shoes (skates?) doesn't get to her.
🇯🇵 Ami Nakai - I've seen some people speculate about a "sophomore slump" for Ami considering her rough Worlds free skate, but I think actually that's pretty unlikely considering how consistent she was the entire season and how long and exhausting an Olympic season is. Ami seems to do pretty well under pressure, and she's a great performer and jumper. Obviously, Mone is ahead of her is the artistry, but a program like Alysa's MacArthur Park can showcase Ami's playful and joyful side while being a bit more mature. I think Ami has less pressure to take Kaori's place and be Japan's new top girl but more pressure to prove that her breakout season wasn't a fluke.
🇯🇵 Mao Shimada - oh boy. in case you don't know, Mao is a junior skater who is turning senior next season. She's named after Mao Asada (yes THAT Mao Asada). She has also never lost an international competition. There have only been 5 girls that have beaten Mao at a domestic competition. Those girls are Rino Matsuike, Hana Yoshida, Mai Mihara, Kaori Sakamoto, and Mone Chiba. Mao has gone on to beat all of them at Japanese Nationals, except for Kaori Sakamoto, who is now retired. This girl is a hydrogen BOMB. As a skater, Mao has a consistent triple axel, an inconsistent quad toe, amazing spins, and very theater kid artistry. However, anyone whose watched skating will tell you never count your juniors before they hatch, especially when their coach is Mie Hamada.
As excited as I am for Mao's senior debut and as impressive as her dominance is, I fear people putting too much pressure on her, especially when Ami and Shin Jia proved how unpredictable juniors can be. In case you didn't follow juniors, Ami was a pretty good but overall middle of the pack skater while Jia was 2x JGPF silver medalist and 4x JR World Champion silver medalist (guess who she kept losing to...) but in seniors it was Ami who walked away with an Olympic medal.
Mie Hamada deserves a whole essay herself, but the summary is she's Japanese Eteri Tutberidze, plus with accusations of physical abuse. Her students have a reputation of burning bright but short. If you're a newer fan, you might not know about Marin Honda and Rika Kihira. Rika was an excellent skater with a triple axel, inconsistent quad salchow and beautiful skating skills. She was incredibly dominant from 2018-2020, even beating Olympic Champion Alina Zagitova, "The Empress" Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, and 4x World Champion Kaori Sakamoto at 2018 GPF until she injured her right ankle so badly she became an ice dancer. Marin Honda was a skater with beautiful skating skills and huge jumps who was a Junior World Champion until her jumps became inconsistent, she kept getting injured and then she became an ice dancer.
I don't want to doom and gloom about Mao, but I want people to manage their expectations for her senior career. Her quad toe was super inconsistent this season, and she might lose it. Mao also has a lot of room to grow in her artistry (although i find her theater kid energy endearing, it's also kind of juniorish and judges tend to not reward that, look at Ami's PCS scores) and Hamada is pushing her very very hard. At the last junior world championships, apparently Mao was bedridden before the free and Hamada told her "I will help you when you collapse." (JAIL TO HAMADA)
TLDR: I do think Mao is capable of making it to GPF, even medalling there, and her being an unseeded skater is very chaotic in a fun way, but I wish everyone is willing to cut this girl some slack if she doesn't or if her senior transition is a bit rough, because i'm kinda sick of people treating her like a medal machine.
🇺🇸 Alysa Liu - Alysa is very much like Ilia in that if she competes, I would be surprised if she doesn't make it the final, I mean she's a World Champion, THE OLYMPIC CHAMPION, and one of the most consistent skaters ever, girl's got ice in her veins. The reason she's in very likely instead of "i def think she's making it" is because in some interviews, Alysa's mentioned how she wants to compete next season, but she's been so busy with media opportunities and Stars on Ice that she hasn't really trained or gotten her programs yet so the next season might not be possible. Personally, I would love to see her next season because I really want more programs from her! I loved MacArthur Park, Stateside is fun, and Promise is a masterpiece, but I would like to see her do other stuff too!
🇺🇸 Isabeau Levito - Isabeau feels very underestimated to me. Everyone keeps acting like Alysa and Amber are so ahead of Isabeau but girl is a legit podium threat for every competition she enters. She's gotten pewter at Worlds three times! excluding the Olympics, she's never placed below 5th in her senior career! the only reason she didn't make grand prix final this season was because she had the misfortune of being assigned to Grand Prix de France where her main competitors were Ami Nakai, peak Kaori Sakamoto, and Rion Sumiyoshi on a day where she could land her quad. (underrotated but she didn't fall!)
lol i ended up talking a lot about the Mie Hamada and the unfair pressure i think people are putting on Mao Shimada so this will be a part 1!
Part 2 will be people who i think have a decent shot and some of my dark horses for making the final/alternates list! the women's field feels really open so the list is bit longer than the men!
thank you to everyone that uploads skating gifs to tumblr
