How Financial Advice is Changing
I spend the vast majority of my time at BlackRock thinking about disruptive technologies relevant to our business. As a result, I often get asked about my views on an emerging new space -- online advisory.
So I figured it was time to write a blog post on the topic.
What are online advisors and what problem are they solving?
Online advisors provide financial advice over a web-based platform for a fee. These platforms come in various flavors (more below), but a common model is to construct optimal portfolios using low-cost ETFs based on a series of questions about your age, wealth band, risk tolerance, goals, etc.. The entire experience is virtual and ultra simple.
Online advisors (or robo-advisors as they're commonly referred to) are vying for a share of assets in the $16T retail investment market, growing quickly, and garnering a lot of hype.
1) The recent financial crisis and one of the worst stock market crashes in our history, spurred by excessive risk-taking by banks, has led to a widespread mistrust of banks and tremendous scrutiny of their business models by regulators and investors. Additionally, people have begun to question the value of traditional financial advice, its inherent conflicts, and high fees (advisors within banks can charge up to 2% of assets).
2) The general public, especially the millenials, have become more tech savvy and are increasingly reliant on online platforms for banking, payments, etc..
This has led to a rise in consumer self-service in the investment market and the growing adoption of low-effort, low-cost, web platforms.
Who are the major players and what has adoption been like?
Betterment, Wealthfront, MarketRiders, Wise Banyan: These providers build basic, strategic ETF portfolios using an ultra simple front-end. Some of these providers have started migrating to more specialized services based on user demand -- Betterment recently launched a retirement solution for older investors and an institutional product for financial advisors to use its technology.
Personal Capital, LearnVest, SigFig, FutureAdvisor, Jemstep: These providers started off in the business of aggregating user's brokerage accounts to create a household view, but are now migrating towards the business model of the firms mentioned above given limited avenues to make money in the original model.
These platforms have seen a lot of interest both by users and smart money (top VC firms), but the fact of the matter is that they are still small relative to traditional competitors (banks and asset managers). Betterment for instance has ~$500M of assets and 33k users. Wealthfront claims to have $800M. The rest combined are another $500 - 700M. These seem like large numbers but they represent assets not fees, the latter being a small % of the former.
What these online platforms have done is set a high bar for self-service capabilities that will be emulated by established financial firms and advisors in the future.
Additionally, increased transparency has led to tremendous fee pressure. In fact, given the low barriers to entry and limited points of differentiation, these online platforms will have to keep lowering fees to attract users. Wise Banyan, for instance, launched with a free basic model. How will these platforms make money if fees basically goes to 0? They could develop proprietary products but then they're essentially competing with large firms that have established brand names and a wide following (i.e., BlackRock, Vanguard, PIMCO).
Vanguard, recognizing the increasing demand for consumer self-service, recently launched its version of an online advisor called Vanguard Personal Advisor Services with a fee of 0.3% on assets and a $100k investment minimum. The service builds portfolios using Vanguard funds. If Vanguard decides to undercut the robo-advisors on fees, which it can given it owns the underlying products and earns money on those, how will the new platforms compete?
I believe consumer self-service will continue to grow but there will be a migration of power from these new platforms to larger firms.
This is essentially what happened in the travel agency market, which was initially disrupted by online agents such as Expedia (the robo-advisors in our example) but then there was share transfer to the travel providers such as United (traditional financial firms) that launched their own direct online offerings. Today, travel providers make up 24% of the booking market vs. 14% for online travel agents. Interestingly, human travel agents still control ~60% of the market by focusing on HNW / corporate clients.
It will definitely be interesting to see what happens...