B-17 : Oscars 2026 Predictions - A Film Fan’s Take
The 98th Academy Awards, also known as The Oscars®, will take place on March 16th at 4:30 AM IST, as the excitement of the awards season is reaching its peak.
2025 has been a terrific year for cinema. The year did bring a stronger slate of films, delivering multiple hits and unforgettable cinematic moments. We witnessed both critically acclaimed flicks and commercial blockbusters - maintaining the balance. Even many new records were made at the Oscars this year.
Now, with less then 12 hours left until the ceremony, let’s dive into the major categories and my predictions for the winners. These are based on industry trends, results from other major awards (like the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, Critics’ Choice, and Guild awards), and, of course, my personal take.
So sit back and stay with me till the end!
Bugonia – Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone, and Lars Knudsen, producers
F1 – Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski, and Jerry Bruckheimer, producers
Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale, and Scott Stuber, producers
Hamnet – Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg, and Sam Mendes, producers
Marty Supreme – Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas, and Timothée Chalamet, producers
One Battle After Another – Adam Somner (p.n.), Sara Murphy, and Paul Thomas Anderson, producers
The Secret Agent – Emilie Lesclaux, producer
Sentimental Value – Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berentsen Ottmar, producers
Sinners – Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian, and Ryan Coogler, producers
Train Dreams – Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer, and Michael Heimler, producers
Prediction: One Battle After Another
Hands down!!!! There’s hardly any real competition for One Battle After Another. Paul Thomas Anderson has been one of the most consistently brilliant filmmakers of the past few decades, and this film feels like the culmination of that craft. This comedy thriller is the kind of ambitious storytelling that deserves this year's highest honor
Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson
PTA is finally going to get his first set of Academy Awards after years of giving top-notch movies (and earning a couple of nods). OBAA showcases his signature control over tone, ensemble storytelling, and visual style. With the film performing strongly throughout awards season, the momentum is clearly on his side.
Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme as Marty Mauser
Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another as Bob Ferguson
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon as Lorenz Hart
Michael B. Jordan – Sinners as Elijah “Smoke” Moore / Elias “Stack” Moore
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent as Armando Solimões / Marcelo Alves / Fernando Solimões
Prediction(s): Timothée Chalamet/Leonardo DiCaprio/Michael B. Jordan
Chalamet, being the recipient of Critics Choice and Golden Globe awards, is facing tough competition from DiCaprio and Jordan. His chances have been affected by his recent remarks about classical art forms, but he gave a terrific performance in Marty Supreme. Jordan is a strong contender, having won the Actor Award. Leo's chances are pretty thin (considering the competition), but he did a memorable performance.
Jessie Buckley – Hamnet as Agnes Shakespeare
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You as Linda
Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue as Claire Sardina
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value as Nora Borg
Emma Stone – Bugonia as Michelle Fuller
Prediction: Jessie Buckley
It's easy. Buckley gave an impactful, emotional performance. She made me cry in some of the scenes as well. She'll take her first Oscar home this year. The Academy often rewards performances that resonate on such a powerful emotional level.
Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another as Sensei Sergio St. Carlos
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein as The Creature
Delroy Lindo – Sinners as Delta Slim
Sean Penn – One Battle After Another as Col. Steven J. Lockjaw
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value as Gustav Borg
Prediction(s): Sean Penn/Stellan Skarsgård
Penn and Skarsgård have given perhaps the best performances of their careers in recent years. Both actors elevate their films with career-defining turns that critics have widely praised - but the odds are in the favor of Penn.
I'd also like to mention that I'm unhappy with the fact that Paul Mescal didn't get nominated.
• Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value as Rachel Kemp
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value as Agnes Borg Pettersen
Amy Madigan – Weapons as Gladys
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners as Annie
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another as Perfidia Beverly Hills
Prediction: Amy Madigan/Wunmi Mosaku/Teyana Taylor
Madigan was scary as hell (and I couldn't sleep at night - also because I watched the movie at night). But she was up to the mark. Mosaku's role of the Hoodoo practitioner made a BAFTA-winning impression - while Taylor's Golden Globe-winning performance of a revolutionary was electric. But the odds are in the favor of Madigan.
• Best Original Screenplay
Blue Moon – Robert Kaplow
It Was Just an Accident – Jafar Panahi, Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr
Rastin, and Mehdi Mahmoudian
Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
Sentimental Value – Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
Using vampire mythology as a metaphor for systemic racism in the film, Cooglar's screenplay and story were unique, melodious, and thought-provoking. No doubt about it.
• Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia – Will Tracy; based on Save the Green Planet! by Jang Joon-hwan
Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro; based on the novel by Mary Shelley
Hamnet – Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell; based on the novel by Maggie O’Farrell
One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson; based on Vineland by Thomas Pynchon
Train Dreams – Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar; based on the novella by Denis Johnson
Prediction: One Battle After Another
Paul Thomas Anderson’s adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland is an incredibly bold and courageous piece of writing. The screenplay balances dark humor and thrilling storytelling with remarkable precision. If the film wins across major categories, Anderson could join the rare group of filmmakers who win Oscars for writing, directing, and producing the same film.
Arco – Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas, and Natalie Portman
Elio – Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina, and Mary Alice Drumm
KPop Demon Hunters – Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans, and Michelle L.M. Wong
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain – Maïlys Vallade, Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago, and Henri Magalon
Zootopia 2 – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, and Yvett Merino
Prediction(s): K-Pop Demon Hunters/Zootopia 2
The odds favor K-Pop Demon Hunters, which has built strong momentum thanks to its vibrant animation style, energetic music, and massive fan appeal. That said, Zootopia 2 is also a major contender, especially considering how beloved the original film was and how entertaining the sequel appears to be. However, the race reflects a broader trend: in recent years, Disney and Pixar films have faced much tougher competition from other studios in the animated category.
• Best International Feature Film
It Was Just an Accident (France) – directed by Jafar Panahi
The Secret Agent (Brazil) – directed by Kleber Mendonça Filho
Sentimental Value (Norway) – directed by Joachim Trier
Sirāt (Spain) – directed by Oliver Laxe
The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia) – directed by Kaouther Ben Hania
Prediction(s): It Was Just Accident/The Secret Agent/Sentimental Value
This year’s lineup features films with major recognition from prestigious festivals like Cannes and Venice. Initially, it looked like the clear frontrunner is It Was Just Accident - after winning the Palme d’Or at Cannes, a prize that often boosts a film’s Oscar prospects. However, throughout the awards season, the momentum has increasingly shifted toward Brazil’s The Secret Agent, with Norway’s Sentimental Value also performing strongly. At this point, Brazil appears slightly more likely to win, but the category remains highly unpredictable. Given the overall quality of the nominees, any of these films taking the award would feel like a deserved victory.
• Best Documentary Feature Film
The Alabama Solution – Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman
Come See Me in the Good Light – Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro, and Stef Willen
Cutting Through Rocks – Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni
Mr Nobody Against Putin – Nominees to be determined
The Perfect Neighbor – Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu, and Sam Bisbee
Prediction(s): Mr. Nobody Against Putin/The Perfect Neighbor
In recent years, the Academy has often favored documentaries focused on major geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia–Ukraine War and the Israel–Hamas War, which could benefit Mr. Nobody Against Putin. However, The Perfect Neighbor may have the edge because of its powerful real-life story- the 2023 shooting of Ajike Owens by Susan Louise Lorincz in Ocala, using police bodycam footage to reconstruct the events and aftermath.
• Best Documentary Short Film
Nominees:
All the Empty Rooms – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud – Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo
Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” – Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins
The Devil Is Busy – Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir
Perfectly a Strangeness – Alison McAlpine
Prediction: All The Empty Rooms
All the Empty Rooms feels like the strongest contender in this category because of its deeply emotional and haunting premise - a journalist memorializing the bedrooms of children who were killed in school shootings. By quietly documenting these preserved spaces, the documentary creates a powerful reflection on grief, memory, and the lasting impact of gun violence.
• Best Live Action Short Film
Butcher’s Stain – Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi
A Friend of Dorothy – Lee Knight and James Dean
Jane Austen’s Period Drama – Julia Aks and Steve Pinder
The Singers – Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
Two People Exchanging Saliva – Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata
Prediction(s): Two People Exchanging Saliva/The Singers
Two People Exchanging Saliva offers a darkly imaginative dystopia where kissing is punishable by death, while The Singers delivers a heartwarming tale of a small-bar singing competition that uncovers hidden talents and moves audiences emotionally. Both are inventive, but the Academy often favors films that resonate on a personal, emotional level, making The Singers the most likely winner.
• Best Animated Short Film
Butterfly – Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens
Forevergreen – Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears
The Girl Who Cried Pearls – Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
Retirement Plan – John Kelly and Andrew Freedman
The Three Sisters – Konstantin Bronzit
Prediction: Retirement Plan
Retirement Plan offers a heartfelt and relatable story about longing and self-discovery. The short’s charming animation and emotional resonance have captured the attention of major film journalists, making it a strong contender for the Oscar in this category.
Bugonia – Jerskin Fendrix
Frankenstein – Alexandre Desplat
One Battle After Another – Jonny Greenwood
Sinners – Ludwig Göransson
Göransson’s score masterfully blends haunting blues melodies with moments of sheer intensity, creating a soundtrack that is both beautiful and unsettling. I was hooked on the soundtrack for quite some time. With this level of craftsmanship, Göransson looks poised to win his third Oscar.
Nominees:
“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless – Music and lyrics by Diane Warren
“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters – Music and lyrics by Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, 24, Ido, and Teddy Park
“I Lied to You” from Sinners – Music and lyrics by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Göransson
“Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi! – Music and lyrics by Nicholas Pike
“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams – Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; lyrics by Nick Cave
Prediction: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
“Golden” from K-Pop Demon Hunters is an energetic, catchy, and visually unforgettable number that perfectly complements the film’s vibrant animation. Its popularity and craftsmanship position it to continue the studio’s streak of success in the Original Song category, making it the likely winner this year.
Marty Supreme – Jennifer Venditti
One Battle After Another – Cassandra Kulukundis
The Secret Agent – Gabriel Domingues
Sinners – Francine Maisler
Prediction(s): Sinners/One Battle After Another
Sinners boasts a phenomenal ensemble cast, having already won the Critics' Choice Award for Best Casting and the Actor Award for Best Ensemble, reflecting the care that went into its performances. The casting choices are thoughtful and elevate every character, making the film a strong contender. However, it faces stiff competition from One Battle After Another, which also features a meticulously assembled cast.
F1 – Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, and Juan Peralta
Frankenstein – Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke, and Brad Zoern
One Battle After Another – José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio, and Tony Villaflor
Sinners – Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor, and Steve Boeddeker
Sirāt – Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas, and Yasmina Praderas
The sound design in F1 is nothing short of spectacular, especially during the high-octane race sequences where every engine roar, tire screech, and ambient detail immerses the audience.
Frankenstein – Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
Hamnet – Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
Marty Supreme – Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
One Battle After Another – Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
Sinners – Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne
Prediction(s): Frankenstein
Frankenstein is a visual feast, as expected from a Guillermo del Toro film, with meticulous attention to color, texture, and atmospheric detail. Every set feels alive, enhancing the story’s mood and immersing viewers in its world. The technical craftsmanship and imaginative design make this category an easy win.
Frankenstein – Dan Laustsen
Marty Supreme – Darius Khondji
One Battle After Another – Michael Bauman
Sinners – Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Train Dreams – Adolpho Veloso
Prediction(s): One Battle After Another/Train Dreams
One Battle After Another dazzles with dynamic camera movement, precise framing, and thrilling chase sequences that keep viewers on the edge of their seats. Meanwhile, Train Dreams captivates with breathtaking natural scenery and painterly compositions reminiscent of a Terrence Malick film. Both films showcase extraordinary visual storytelling, making this a tight but thrilling race. Although OBAA is more likely due to the award wins. It's unpredictable.
• Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein – Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey
Kokuho – Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, and Tadashi Nishimatsu
Sinners – Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, and Shunika Terry
The Smashing Machine – Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin, and Bjoern Rehbein
The Ugly Stepsister – Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
Frankenstein delivers stunning makeup and hairstyling, transforming its characters with intricate prosthetics, textures, and period-appropriate looks. Every detail enhances the film’s dark, gothic atmosphere, making it a standout in this category. Jacob Elordi's makeup of Frankenstein's ghost is the reason it will win this award for sure.
Avatar: Fire and Ash – Deborah L. Scott
Frankenstein – Kate Hawley
Hamnet – Malgosia Turzanska
Marty Supreme – Miyako Bellizzi
The costumes in Frankenstein are equally spectacular, reflecting Guillermo del Toro’s signature blend of fantasy and realism. Each outfit perfectly complements the characters and the world they inhabit, creating a visually cohesive and immersive experience.
Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
One Battle After Another – Andy Jurgensen
Sentimental Value – Olivier Bugge Coutté
Sinners – Michael P. Shawver
Prediction: One Battle After Another
One Battle After Another excels in its editing, with fast-paced montages, expertly timed chase sequences, and seamless transitions that heighten the film’s intensity. The precise rhythm and pacing keep audiences fully engaged, making it a strong favorite for the award.
Avatar: Fire and Ash – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett
F1 – Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington, and Keith Dawson
Jurassic World Rebirth – David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, and Neil Corbould
The Lost Bus – Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen, and Brandon K. McLaughlin
Sinners – Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter, and Donnie Dean
Prediction: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Avatar: Fire and Ash dominates in visual effects, adding yet another breathtaking layer to the franchise’s already spectacular universe. The technical mastery and immersive CGI make this an obvious and predictable win.
Which one's your favorite film? Which film and the person associated with it are you rooting for to win? Share them in the comments.
