Hot Stove: The Pirates Say Goodbye to Russell Martin, But Say Hello Again to AJ Burnett
A low-budget franchise hoping to maintain postseason relevance, the Pittsburgh Pirates were always going to have some difficult decisions to make. Russell Martin is one of those decisions. After a 2014 season where Martin was superb in every facet, Martin was set to command big money on the free agent market as the only top-tier catcher available - so do the Pirates shell out the big bucks? The answer: no. The Pirates let Martin walk on Monday, sitting on their hands as the Canadian catcher went home, signing a five-year, $82 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday.
The main question with Russell Martin: is there any guarantee he'll ever produce the way he did in 2014 again? Let's just take a cursory look at the stats. In 2014, Martin hit .290/.402/.430 with 11 home runs - in the five years previous, his slash line stood at a combined .234/.332/.370 with an average of 13 home runs. Not terrible, but hardly worth $82 million. Martin will also turn 32 in February. If we've learned anything over the years, we have to turn a very skeptical eye towards career seasons from players in their 30s, especially in contract years, and especially when it included a gigantic leap in BABIP with little change in his batted ball profile from previous years. Luckily for him, Martin is going to an absolute launching pad up in Toronto.
While I think his total offensive performance will see some significant regression, I think we'll see his home runs jump back up near where they were in New York: around the high-teens, low-20s range. Combine that with his always-stellar defense, and Martin should absolutely provide starter value for the Blue Jays - but I doubt he can live up to the terms of his contract, especially towards the end. But in this day and age, if you want to make a splash in the free agent market, this is the game you have to play. Meanwhile, as I've written before, the Pirates should fare just fine with Francisco Cervelli as their starter. He's hit well when healthy during his career, he's one of the best pitch-framers in the game, and - and this is the most important part - he doesn't cost anything.
But while Martin leaves Pittsburgh behind, AJ Burnett is coming back home. After two successful years with the Buccos, Burnett took off for Philadelphia, make rumblings about retiring, and then lost 18 games. He's back on a one-year deal. Burnett sucked in Philadelphia, let's make no bones about it, but he still has strikeout stuff and still generated over 50% ground balls - his fastball's velocity has been gradually declining, but his curveball remains a good out pitch. Burnett is comfortable in Pittsburgh, and if he's not relied upon to do too much, he could again be a solid piece of the Pirates rotation. Burnett should be a back-end starter at this point, but as it stands currently, he's their #2 starter - that just won't do. It won't do at all. If Neal Huntington is smart, he'll shell out some of the cash he saved letting Martin walk for some starting pitching help.
We may be witnessing the death of a franchise in Tampa Bay. Once the darling of baseball fans everywhere, the Rays managed to consistently defy the odds and succeed despite tepid fan support, poor facilities, and a low payroll - it could only last so long. This offseason, both their manager and GM have taken off for big market jobs, and the trade of ace David Price, the greatest player in the history of the franchise, signaled that a total rebuild was on the way. Another domino fell Friday night, as the Rays dealt righthander Jeremy Hellickson, once one of the team's ascendant stars, to Arizona.
Hellickson burst into the Rays rotation in 2011 and ended up winning AL Rookie of the Year, and followed that up with another good season in 2012. The Rays won 90+ games both years, and it appeared that Hellickson would be a staple of the Rays rotation for years to come - in fact, the Rays ended up dealing #2 starter James Shields to Kansas City after the 2012 season, no doubt partially because Hellickson appeared that he could settle in as a capable second fiddle to Price. They were wrong. Hellickson dropped off the face of the Earth in 2013 with a 5.17 ERA, and injuries limited him to just 13 starts - with a 4.52 ERA - last season. And so we find ourselves here.
So what happened? Well, the quick answer is... he might not have been that good to start with. Although Hellickson posted pretty ERAs in 2011 and 2012, he always greatly outperformed his peripheral numbers: in those two years, he had a 4.72 and 4.44 xFIP. Hellickson has had the good fortune to pitch in a very pitcher-friendly park and with strong defenses behind him, allowing him to get away with a lot.
But luck is a fickle thing. Hellickson has arguably improved as the years have gone on - his strikeout rates have risen every season and his peripheral stats have gradually gotten better, but he hasn't been rewarded. I don't think his performance over the last two years is really indicative of the pitcher he is. Although Hellickson will lose his park advantages as he moves to Arizona, he should be able to settle in as a serviceable back-end starter if he's fully recovered from the elbow injury that limited him to just 13 starts last season.
Meanwhile for the Rays, they get a couple good-looking prospects in return for the former Rookie of the Year. Both Andrew Velazquez and Justin Williams are a few years away from the big leagues, but both showed promise at Single-A South Bend last year. Justin Williams is a slap-hitting corner outfielder who was a second-round pick in 2013, and he's racked up an eye-popping .351 total average in his two minor league seasons. Williams' contact ability is superb, and he's said to have a ton of raw, unharnessed strength and power. Meanwhile, the 5'8'' Velazquez makes up for his lack in size with incredible speed and a promising bat - he stole 50 bases and hit 15 triples last year, while also popping out nine home runs. Velazquez is a shortstop who has garnered plenty of praise for his glovework, and both he and Williams have the potential to hit at the top of the Rays lineup in a few years.
Hot Stove: The Pirates Settle for Francisco Cervelli
We've all known for a long time that one of the biggest prizes of this year's free agent market is Russell Martin. He's easily the best catcher on the market. As such, he will command a lot of money. The Pittsburgh Pirates, his most recent employer, do not have a lot of money. As such, they need a Plan B. It's as simple as that. On Wednesday, the Pirates made a deal with the Yankees for catcher Francisco Cervelli, in a move that surely won't excite the Bucco faithful - but as it happens, Cervelli is actually kinda good. So yay!
As far as Plan Bs (Plans B?) go, the Pirates could do worse than Cervelli, who carries a strong big league track record but hasn't really gotten much of a chance. In parts of seven years at the big league level, encompassing 785 plate appearances, Cervelli has a solid .729 OPS - and when you just look at the last two years, that mark goes up to .822. Cervelli provided nice value as a backup to Brian McCann this year, bringing to the table a strong batter's eye and a high level of plate performance against righthanders. Behind the plate, Cervelli is consistently rated as one of the best pitch-framers in the game. He made $700,000 this year.
Compare that to Martin, who had an .832 OPS this season, but the combined total of his previous five seasons was .702. Martin has been the team's heart and soul over the last two years and a very valuable two-way player, but the difference between him and Cervelli hasn't been as big as you'd think. Martin has Cervelli beat in the power department, but he's struggled to break .250 for most of his career (at least after Joe Torre ran him into the ground in LA not that I'm still fiercely bitter or anything), Cervelli's behind-the-plate skills tend to be very underrated. Plus, Martin could get as much as $15 million a year on the open market.
In return, the Pirates are sending lefty reliever Justin Wilson to New York, and he could end up being a huge value for a Yankee team that let their best bullpen lefty, Matt Thornton, walk on a waiver claim. Wilson is a fireballing southpaw with a good cutter and changeup who has always gotten a good ground ball rate but struggled with walks and a high BABIP last year. Wilson was very successful in 2013, recording a 2.08 ERA in 58 appearances, but he saw that mark double last year. Wilson's got strikeout stuff and if his ground ball rate holds, he has the chance to a vital piece to the Yankee bullpen.
According to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, the Cervelli deal doesn't even take the Pirates out of the running for Martin - if the Buccos are able to bring Martin back, Cervelli should be a good backup. And if Martin goes elsewhere (which seems very likely), I think Cervelli could actually be a solid value as a starter, while giving the Pirates more financial flexibility to pursue much-needed starting pitching help. Meanwhile, the Yankees get a talented bullpen piece to fill a role they desperately need. I think this one's gonna work out surprisingly well.
Hot Stove: The Mets Go With the Quick Fix, Sign Michael Cuddyer
Well, at long last the first real domino of the MLB free agent market has fallen. Today, the Mets signed veteran outfielder and 2013 NL batting champ Michael Cuddyer to a two-year deal, ostensibly to fill a big hole in the corner outfield. On a relatively inexpensive contract, the Mets will be relying on Cuddyer a great deal - but at the age of 35, will he live up to expectations?
The Mets were actually better than you'd think last year. Although they ended up with a 79-83 record, they actually finished 2nd in the NL East and had a positive run differential. The Mets have an excellent core of young starting pitchers that will get a boost with the expected return of Matt Harvey in 2015, and a bullpen featuring one of the coolest men of the world, moonwalk specialist Jenrry Mejia. Despite a pitching staff ready for prime time, the Mets were held back by an offense lacking punch.
The sudden emergence of Lucas Duda was somewhat neutralized by the equally sudden decline of David Wright, who hit just eight home runs this season. One of the biggest problems was the outfield - although the Mets seem to have found a long-term solution in center with defensive whiz Juan Lagares, big-money free agent Curtis Granderson had a hideously disappointing season in right, and the Mets cycled through the likes of Eric Young, Chris Young, Kirk Nieuwenheis and Matt den Dekker in a series of failed attempts to find someone to stick in left.
In Michael Cuddyer, the Mets at least have someone who they can play every day... probably. Cuddyer is 35 years old, and over his three years in Colorado he missed over 200 games. When he's actually been out there, he's absolutely raked. In his years with the Rockies, Cuddyer hit over .330 twice, won a batting title, and had a stellar .886 OPS. It's not really reasonable to expect him to keep up that kind of production, however - the jump from Coors Field to Citi Field, one of the most decidedly pitcher-friendly parks in the game, is enormous, and it's the same kind of change that helped lead to a decline in Granderson's statistics in 2014.
Just take a look at the stats. Cuddyer hit .272 with a .794 OPS in his years with Minnesota playing at Target Field and the Metrodome, parks less favorable to pitchers than Citi Field, and his .970 career OPS at Coors Field is his highest among any park where he's had more than 100 plate appearances. Coupled with his injury history and advancing age, it seems evident that Cuddyer will be in for some serious regression as he moves to the NL East.
Cuddyer will certainly be an improvement, providing a stable solution at a position that has been very volatile. Still, he's been a minus defensively throughout his entire career, and he's only getting worse with age. With Granderson in right, the Mets have one of the worst defensive corner outfield pairs in the big leagues, and while Lagares' presence in center should mitigate this somewhat, it's not gonna be that fun for Mets pitchers.
Make no mistake, the signing of Cuddyer is Sandy Alderson making a statement. The Mets want to contend now. They have the pitching staff to get the job done, and the decision to grab a big-name veteran free agent to fill one of their most obvious holes, rather than wait for someone like Michael Conforto to reach the big leagues, is a telling one. If this is the route the Mets are gonna take, next up on the list has to be getting a shortstop - and rumor has it they're talking with Colorado regarding Troy Tulowitzki. A deal for Tulo, or another such trade, is probably their best bet, considering the free agent market is notably devoid of shortstops. Cuddy and Tulo in the Big Apple? Maybe they'll play 162 games! Combined!
Hot Stove: There's So Little Going On That the Big Story is the Astros Trading for Hank Conger
The main attraction in the MLB offseason is the free agent market, the most lucrative in American sports. But it's early November. No one signs in early November. (And did you know that no one ever has ever accepted a qualifying offer ever? Like, ever?) Aye, but a hot taker's work is never done. Today, the Astros and Angels completed a blockbuster deal the likes of which has never before been seen in the realms of Men or Elves: catcher Hank Conger for pitcher Nick Tropeano and minor leaguer Carlos Perez.
Naw, but really. Conger has played parts of five seasons as a backup in the Angels organization, finally securing his spot as Anaheim's #2 in the last couple years. And he's... well, he's OK? The Astros could do worse as a backup, even though Conger doesn't really have any notable strengths - he's a switch-hitter with a .648 career OPS who doesn't do particularly well from either side of the plate, and throws out runners at a rate just below league average, although he's generally competent behind the plate despite his unspectactular arm. Conger has always put up big numbers at the minor league level, but entering his age-27 season he's running out of time to put it all together.
So what does Conger's acquisition mean for the Astros? You could say it shows that Houston isn't 100% confident in starter Jason Castro, a 2013 All-Star who saw his offensive production drop off severely last year - and you might not be wrong, but you don't bring in Hank Conger to start. More likely, Conger will compete for the backup catcher role with Carlos Corporan, a similarly mediocre backstop who's about four years older. Based on the youth factor, expect Conger to win that battle.
Going the other way are a pair of prospects, one of whom (Tropeano) has already had a taste of the big leagues. Tropeano is a 24-year-old starter who got a September call-up last season and made four starts, going 1-3 with a 4.57 ERA in 21.2 innings. A fifth-round pick out of Stony Brook in 2011, Tropeano showed real promise in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League in 2014, and while he doesn't have a whole lot of velocity, he appears to have a big-league-ready breaking ball and changeup. He's got the potential to hold down a spot in the rotation, eventually. As for Perez, he's a 24-year-old catcher who hit .259/.323/.385 at AAA Oklahoma City this season, and has impressed over his minor league career for his defensive acumen. Unless the Angels make a move, Perez will have a good chance to make the Opening Day roster.
Hot Stove: The Brewers Trade Bad Dingers for Good Dingers
What in blazes happened to the Milwaukee Brewers? As late as mid-August, the Brewers appeared destined for the playoffs, if not a division title - then they collapsed, ended up 82-80, and were left wondering what went wrong. In the end, the Brewers turned out to be basically an average team in just about every respect. Something needed to be done.
Yesterday, the Brewers engaged the first significant trade of the offseason, dealing pitcher Marco Estrada for power bat Adam Lind. For the Brewers, Lind is a very nice addition. Not only does he look like an ice road trucker, Lind has established himself as an above-average hitter during his career in Toronto. Lind has posted back-to-back seasons with an OPS above .850, and over his career he's had an extremely good track record against righthanded pitching. He's very limited defensively, and DHed a lot for the Jays - though I expect we'll see him play a lot at first, which was one of Milwaukee's biggest holes this season - and he's best suited as a pinch-hitter who gets some starts against righties. Lind has the kind of bat that you can forgive some defensive transgressions.
Meanwhile, the acquisition of Marco Estrada by Toronto may not end well. The ball jumps out of Toronto's Rogers Centre, and few pitchers gave up dingers like Estrada in 2014. We've always known that this was part of the Marco Estrada Experience - he's always been one of the league's most extreme fly ball pitches, and that comes with the territory. But while in previous years Estrada had pitched well enough for Milwaukee to let a few homers slide, in 2014 Estrada gave up a league-leading 29 homers (in just 150 innings) and found himself demoted to a long relief role by midseason. Estrada's fastball averages just below 90, and it was absolutely walloped all season long. With some of the hitters he'll encounter in the American League, and pitching in the Rogers Centre, there will be a lot more homers to come.
Estrada will probably come in with a mop-up role should he make the team, with the understanding that he has a chance to enter the rotation should injuries occur. He's had some good seasons in the past and Toronto could do worse, but right now I really don't think the Blue Jays will be a good fit for him. Meanwhile, Lind has the chance to hold down Milwaukee's first base job, but having him as an everyday starter isn't an ideal scenario due to his struggles with southpaws and his defensive issues. If the Brewers bring in a righthanded power hitter to platoon with Lind - think someone like Michael Morse - the Brewers can ensure that they have a middle-of-the-order bat at first at all times, while also stashing a power bat on the bench in case of emergency. Either way, Lind should be a help for a team that had a stolidly middle-of-the-pack offense in 2014.
Hot Stove: The Dodgers Say Goodbye to Chad Billingsley
Injuries suck - just ask the Dodgers. The Boys in Blue had one of the best starting rotations in baseball this season, but there were some significant bumps along the way. Third starter Hyun-jin Ryu saw the DL a couple times, while the Dodgers caught lightning in a bottle with Josh Beckett only to see him suffer a career-ending hip injury just after the All-Star break. As for Chad Billingsley, a former All-Star and a staple of the Dodger rotation since 2006, the 2014 season never materialized at all.
Billingsley had long been a source of frustration for Dodger fans, a former top prospect who had shown flashes of excellence but was never able to put it all together. He was still good enough to hold down a spot in the Dodger rotation, and even earned an All-Star bid in 2010, but for years he was the same old Chad - until September of 2012. While in the midst of one of the best stretches of his career, stoking hopes that he could finally emerge as a true #2 to ace Clayton Kershaw, Billingsley suffered a partial ulnar collateral ligament tear that ended his season. Billingsley opted not to have surgery and started the 2013 season occupying his usual space in the rotation, but after two starts he reinjured the elbow and Tommy John surgery ended his season. Billingsley made a couple rehab starts in an attempt to make it back to the big leagues this year, but he then suffered a torn flexor tendon that ended those efforts.
With Billingsley's health a gigantic question mark, and faced with a $14 million option, the Dodgers did the sensible thing and cut him loose. Billingsley was a generally effective mid-rotation starter during his years in the Dodger rotation, featuring a very good cutter and curveball that complemented his low-90s fastball. He was never a star, but Billingsley could be counted upon to provide six innings a night despite sometimes-sporadic control and the ever-present angst that comes with watching a guy who never quite lived up to his potential - and teams could do a whole lot worse on the back end of their rotation.
Billingsley hasn't really pitched in about two years, and I get the feeling that he's been largely forgotten by the baseball community. Now on the open market, Billingsley occupies a place in the lower tier of starters, but not a lot of such pitchers that are available this offseason have the kind of track record he has if you take injuries out of consideration. For Billingsley to catch on somewhere, he'll have to first prove he has recovered from two severe elbow injuries, and then be willing to take a significant pay cut from what he was making in Los Angeles.
Don't be surprised if Billingsley stays with the Dodgers, for that matter. The Dodgers have four of the five spots in their rotation just about set in stone after Dan Haren exercised his 2015 option last week, but they don't have anyone coming up through the system who's really ready, and they don't appear willing to splurge on someone like James Shields, Jon Lester or Max Scherzer. Billingsley is a low-cost option with whom the organization is already familiar, and if he can return to his 2012 form he could be a bargain for a team desperately needing stability at the back end of the rotation.
Hot Stove: The Blue Jays Go Bargain-Hunting For Bats
Ah, the beginning of the offseason. There are few other times in baseball where the waiver wire is so active - players come off the 60-day DL, and teams have to make tough decisions. Although players placed on waivers are ostensibly unwanted by their former teams (at least on the 40-man roster, anyway), sometimes teams catch lightning in a bottle on waivers. Just this past season, relievers Matt Thornton and John Axford found themselves on waivers, and wound up contributing to playoff teams. For organizations in search of big league talent, the waiver wire can represent a cheap and easy way to find someone to fill a hole.
And so we come to the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays weren't bad last year - an 83-79 record that lifted them out of the AL East cellar - and they had one of the better offenses in the American League. However, two of their everyday starters, Melky Cabrera and Colby Rasmus, are hitting the open market It's no guarantee the Jays will keep either, and they had a very unproductive bench, so what's a GM to do? Well, Alex Anthopoulos decided to go bargain-shopping, and in the first two days of the offseason he claimed two veteran hitters who may provide some value: Justin Smoak and Andy Dirks.
You might remember Justin Smoak as the hot prospect first baseman at the center of Cliff Lee's trade to Texas. Since then he's intermittently held down the first base job for the Seattle Mariners, but as he faces down his age-28 season, he's never taken the leap his club hoped for. Smoak has always shown power, even in Safeco Field, but his defensive performance at first has been subpar throughout his career and he doesn't have the mobility to play anywhere else. He's a switch-hitter, but his career averages from either side of the plate are almost identical at .224 lefty and .223 righty, which limits his utility as a pinch-hitter. Smoak's ability to hit a fastball more or less evaporated last year, which sucks, when you consider the immense trouble he's always had against breaking balls. Smoak hit 20 home runs just two years ago, but his overall track record is poor, and with Edwin Encarnacion already entrenched at first base the chance of him making an impact with Toronto is minimal.
However, the Jays might have found something with their other claim. Andy Dirks looked poised to platoon with Rajai Davis in left field for the Tigers this year, but back injuries cost him the entire season. If healthy, the Blue Jays might have found themselves an upgrade from Rasmus. Dirks has been one of the better left fielders in the American League over the past few years, and he's a lefty bat with a nice, compact swing who has shown flashes of excellence at the plate, albeit not with a ton of power. Dirks has a respectable .745 career OPS, and he was a terror in 2012, hitting .322 with an .857 OPS. Dirks mashed fastballs that year, and his success against the harder stuff will be the big key to his offensive performance when you consider his solid track record against off-speed pitches. Back injuries can be very tricky, but if Dirks is able to get back to 100%, he has the all-around ability to be at least a plus off the bench, if not a starting outfielder. Whether Cabrera and/or Rasmus returns will have a great effect on what Dirks' role will be, but anticipate him being a major factor in Toronto's plans this year - and who knows, maybe he'll be the next big waiver claim success story.
Hot Stove: The Red Sox Dump Craig Breslow, World's Smartest Man
The Boston Red Sox had a lot of problems this year. The defending champs turned in a mind-numbing 71-91 campaign, and there were all sorts of factors - injuries, offensive ineptitude, Clay Buchholz having his pitching ability stolen by the Monstars, et cetera - but also quite damaging was the fact that their bullpen had one of the highest ERAs in the American League. But with solid seasons from Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa and Burke Badenhop, how could this be?
One of the main culprits is pictured above. Craig Breslow was a previously serviceable veteran lefty who provided hugely successful specialist duties for the Red Sox the year before. In 2014, Breslow did a complete 180. Breslow was just about terrible all year round - with breakout star Andrew Miller seizing the main lefty role before his move to Baltimore, Breslow was used mainly as a middle reliever and was touched up for a 5.90 ERA in 60 appearances this year.
It should also be noted that Breslow is a Yale graduate with degrees in molecular biophysics and biochemistry. Alas, it could not save him. Breslow showed a worrying drop in velocity and suffered a huge jump in his walk rate, and was accordingly knocked around by both lefties and righties alike. Some attributed this to fatigue, due to the fact that he had pitched through all of October in 2013, but logically it should follow that he got stronger throughout the year - and he most certainly did not.
So faced with a $4 million option for a 34-year-old reliever coming off the worst season of his career, the Red Sox did the obvious thing - they declined the option, and cut Breslow loose. Of course, with both Miller and Breslow gone, the Red Sox have an opening in their bullpen, and look for in-house options Tommy Layne, Drake Britton and Edwin Escobar to get a shot at holding down a job. Layne is a Padre castoff who filled Miller's spot with aplomb once he was traded to Baltimore, while Britton and Escobar are younger, homegrown prospects with options. More likely, expect the Sox to go out into the market for lefties, where they can find someone like Joe Thatcher, Tom Gorzelanny or even Andrew Miller.
As for Breslow, he joins a free agent market that doesn't seem exactly stacked - Andrew Miller is the prize when you're talking about lefty relievers, but the rest of the group isn't sterling. Joe Thatcher saw his stock drop with a wretched stint with the Angels last year, Phil Coke is a proven mediocrity, and the rest of the group are either coming off injuries (Sean Burnett), bad form (Scott Downs), have had struggles with lefties in the past (Gorzelanny), or have spotty overall track records (Neal Cotts, Zach Duke, Joe Beimel, Josh Outman). The opportunity should be there for Breslow to find his way onto a major league roster again, although it might have to come as a non-roster invitee.
Before the season, I went through the big leagues, team-by-team, attempting to break down each club and project how'd they perform in 2014. 162 games later, we have our answers. Let's take a look back at the 2014 season, starting first with the junior circuit.
The American League East
Baltimore Orioles
Preseason prediction: 90-93 wins
Actual record: 96-66
I figured that the Orioles' powerful lineup would vault them into playoff contention, but the presence of the Tampa Bay Rays (haha what) would relegate them to the wild card game. So much for that. The Orioles ran away with the AL East behind league-leading power, competent starting pitching, a shutdown bullpen and one of the best defenses in baseball. More impressively, they did it without some of their key performers. The seasons of Matt Wieters and Manny Machado were mostly lost - meanwhile, Chris Davis saw his average plummet before an amphetamine suspension. The Orioles didn't miss them at all. Nelson Cruz carried the team on offense with 40 home runs, and the O's got huge bench contributions from Steve Pearce and Delmon Young. While the rotation figured to be the iffiest part of the team, Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris, Miguel Gonzalez and Kevin Gausman managed to provide solid performances just about every night. Lefty Zach Britton emerged as one of the best closers in baseball. Their lack of a true ace in the rotation, and strikeouts aplenty in their lineup, could hurt them in the playoffs, but this is a team that is above-average in just about every respect. Playoff fever has returned to Birdland.
Boston Red Sox
Preseason prediction: 88-90 wins
Actual record: 71-91
This year, the Red Sox became the first team in baseball history to go from last place, to first, and then back to last over the span of three seasons. That is all you need to know about Boston's season. Here's another thing you should know: of the five men who looked to comprise their starting rotation, Jon Lester is in Oakland, John Lackey is in St. Louis, Jake Peavy is in San Francisco, Felix Doubront is in Chicago, and Clay Buchholz had a 5.34 ERA. Expected contributors like A.J. Pierzynski, Jonny Gomes and Mike Carp also found themselves shipped out. Xander Bogaerts and Will MIddlebrooks provided a big ball of nothing at the plate. Shane Victorino only played thirty games. I figured the Red Sox would take a step back, but who could have predicted this fiasco? There may be some hope for the offense - the acquisition of All-Star Yoenis Cespedes, the continued fine form of David Ortiz and Mike Napoli and the emergence of Brock Holt and Mookie Betts should help. On the other hand, the pitching staff might take a few years to rebuild. The Earth has been scorched.
New York Yankees
Preseason prediction: 84-87 wins
Actual record: 84-78
Right on the button! 1-for-3 is awesome in this game. The Derek Jeter farewell tour was somehow even more insufferable then we expected - he also sucked on the field, but that wasn't out of the ordinary for New York's crew of high-priced veterans. Although, as usual, the Yankees were stocked with big names, the likes of Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran and Jeter were tremendous disappointments in 2014, and while Jacoby Ellsbury had a solid year, it didn't justify the 21 million dollar salary he received that offseason. The Yankees were contenders-in-name-only for the balance of the season. Masahiro Tanaka turned out to be way better than expected before his unfortunate elbow injury in July, but the pitching staff wasn't quite good enough to compensate for the Yankees' mediocre offense. The Yanks didn't have a single regular under 30, and it may be time to blow the whole thing up.
Tampa Bay Rays
Preseason prediction: 95-97 wins
Actual record: 77-85
Yeah, I blew this one. In my defense, everyone else thought the Rays were gonna be great too. When stud pitcher Matt Moore went on the DL early in the season, we should have been worried then - Moore only ended up making two starts in 2014. Suddenly, the outstanding rotation tht figured to lead the Rays into title contention was without one of its best arms. Chris Archer and Alex Cobb turned in fine seasons, but Jeremy Hellickson never found his form and franchise ace David Price, the greatest pitcher Tampa Bay has ever had, was traded to Detroit. Ouch. Grant Balfour's return to the Sunshine State as the closer? A complete disaster. Meanwhile, although the Rays didn't project to be a big offensive team, but they ended up scoring the fewest runs in the American League. Which brings us to the biggest question floating about Tampa Bay: what the hell happened to Wil Myers? The Rookie of the Year in 2013, Myers looked to be the linchpin of the Tampa Bay lineup. Instead, he hit just .222 with a .614 OPS in 87 games sandwiched around an extended DL stint with a broken wrist. Troublingly, Myers' power seemed completely gone, and he struggled mightily against harder pitches. Without Myers there to help the offense go, the Rays' comeback campaign in 2015 may be over before it starts.
Toronto Blue Jays
Preseason prediction: 75-78 wins
Actual record: 83-79
The Blue Jays weren't that bad, and they weren't that good. Their lineup performed just about to expectations - a bunch of homers from Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, a good season from Jose Reyes, some fun times with Munenori Kawasaki, some cool bombs (but otherwise mediocre play) from Colby Rasmus - but it was a surprisingly decent performance from a rotation that looked to be terrible that pushed the Jays over .500. Mark Buehrle was a world-beater for the first half of the season, R.A. Dickey had a solid bounceback year, J.A. Happ and Drew Hutchison did better than expected, and rookie Marcus Stroman showed the world why he was considered to be the crown jewel of the Toronto system. A disappointing bullpen all but eliminated Toronto's chances to move forward, but there are some decent arms in there. The Jays may hang around again in 2015.
The American League Central
Chicago White Sox
Preseason prediction: 70-73 wins
Actual record: 73-89
Jose Abreu turned out to be the best hitter in the league. Alexei Ramirez was an All-Star. Adam Eaton was a sparkplug in the lineup and a vacuum cleaner in center field. Conor Gillaspie hit over .300 for most of the year. Tyler Flowers was better than Tyler Flowers had any right to be. Chris Sale was a stud. And the White Sox still only won 73 games. If talented young outfielder Avisail Garcia had stayed healthy it might have been a different story, but the White Sox rotation turned out to be too thin - and the bullpen too atrocious - for there to be any fun on the South Side. The good news? Carlos Rodon is coming.
Cleveland Indians
Preseason prediction: 87-89 wins
Actual record: 85-77
The Indians got breakout seasons from Michael Brantley and Yan Gomes, Lonnie Chisenhall was God Himself for a couple months, and Carlos Santana broke out of a horrific early-season slump to hit 27 home runs. And speaking of breakouts, how about Corey Kluber? Not to toot my own horn here, but I identified Kluber as a "pitcher to watch in the 2014," but the idea that he was going to become one of the Cy Young frontrunners seemed a little much. Kluber won 18 games, posted a 2.44 ERA and struck out 269 batters, and he very well might win the award over Chris Sale and Felix Hernandez. The Tribe treaded water for most of the season, and a late-season run was too little, too late. The main problem? Outside of Kluber, the pitching staff wasn't that good. Justin Masterson, a 2013 All-Star, was horrid, while youngsters Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer flashed promise but didn't put it all together. As far as the bullpen is concerned, John Axford's poor performance will likely end up being a positive development for Cleveland going forward - Cody Allen, a 25-year-old with the best arm in the group, now has a hold on the closer spot. The Indians are primed to be strong in the coming years. Kluber has established himself as an ace and Bauer and Salazar are bound to keep improving. If Jason Kipnis can bounce back to his 2013 form, the Indians will have a strong lineup loaded with players on the right side of 30 - plus, the trade of Asdrubal Cabrera to Washington has opened up a spot for the highly-touted Francisco Lindor. The Indians could challenge for the division next year.
Detroit Tigers
Preseason prediction: 93-95 wins
Actual record: 90-72
The Tigers won yet another AL Central title this year, which was a surprise to no one - however, what was surprising was exactly how they did it. Miguel Cabrera, for instance, had only the third-highest OPS on the team. Victor Martinez was an MVP candidate, and Houston Astro castoff J.D. Martinez somehow transmogrified into one of the best hitters in baseball. Meanwhile, Justin Verlander completely dropped off the table, but the Tigers rotation managed anyway, thanks in no small part to a strong year from Rick Porcello and the trade deadline acquisition of former Cy Young winner David Price. However, the team has two fatal flaws: a crappy defense, and a bullpen that is shaky to say the absolute least. Signing Joe Nathan seemed to be a natural move, but he was a disaster as Detroit's closer - worse yet, the Tigers didn't have anyone good enough to replace him. The Tigers may make a run on the sheer force of their talent, but there are some severe cracks in the foundation.
Kansas City Royals
Preseason prediction: 88-90 wins
Actual record: 89-73
It truly was a magical year in Kansas City. Contenders for the first time in almost 30 years, the Royals very nearly stole the division crown before coming back from a 7-3 deficit to win a thrilling 12-inning wild card game. Without much power to speak of - the Royals are the first AL team since 1992 to hit fewer than 100 home runs and still make the playoffs - the Royals became the Kings of Smallball, winning with speed, timely hits, Ned Yost's frequent bunts, good starting pitching and a fantastic bullpen. The Royals might not stop there, and they need to make the most out of this postseason appearance - they might have trouble getting ace James Shields to return to Kansas City this offseason. At any rate, Yordano Ventura and Danny Duffy, 23 and 25 years old respectively, look like they'll make a formidable 1-2 punch of their own in the years to come.
Minnesota Twins
Preseason prediction: 68-70 wins
Actual record: 70-92
Don't worry, Twins fans. I know, all the 90+ loss seasons suck, but brighter days are ahead. The Twins boast some of the best young talent in the game, and some of those prospects have already started to make their way up to the big league level. Danny Santana, Oswaldo Arcia and Kennys Vargas, are all 23 years old, and all three earned spots in the Twins' everyday lineup. Santana looked like a future All-Star, the free-swinging Arcia hit 20 homers, and Vargas showed off big power. And that's not all - the minor league system is LOADED. Byron Buxton is the consensus top prospect in baseball, and draws Mike Trout comparisons. Third baseman Miguel Sano missed the season with Tommy John surgery, but when healthy he has prodigious power. And a trio of starting pitchers - Alex Meyer, Kohl Stewart and Jose Berrios - are nearing the majors and have the potential to head an excellent staff. Oh, and did I mention that Phil Hughes had the greatest strikeout-to-walk ratio in the history of baseball this year? Because he did! How weird is that?
The American League West
Houston Astros
Preseason prediction: 63-65 wins
Actual record: 70-92
I figured that the Astros would show some improvement and lose less than 100 games, but look at that! They didn't even finish in last place! A magnificent performance by Magical Tiny Man Jose Altuve and 37 home runs from Chris Carter helped carry the Astros out of the cellar. Unfortunately, the Astros' youth movement might be, you know, completely screwed. The Astros have bet everything on their top prospects, and while George Springer showed real promise, it's hard to find optimism with the rest of the group. Jon Singleton signed a 30 million dollar extension upon his callup, but hit just .168 and struck out 134 times in 362 plate appearances. First overall pick Carlos Correa lost his season to a broken leg; Mark Appel, the next year's first overall pick, suffered through a nightmarish season at High-A. Finally, the Astros might have gone and poisoned the well by lowballing and ultimately failing to sign 2014 first overall pick Brady Aiken, earning themselves them horrid PR with their shady dealing. The Astros are a better team now than they were a year or two ago, but Sports Illustrated's infamous "2017 World Series Champs" proclamation looks none too smart today.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Preseason prediction: 84-86 wins
Actual record: 98-64
Like many people, I completely underestimated the Angels. After last year's bitterly disappointing season, the Angels treaded water until about June, then exploded - they flew past the A's in a torrid summer and earned themselves the very best record in baseball. As usual, it starts and ends with Michael Nelson Trout. The Millville Meteor might finally win the AL MVP this year, as he stepped his power to another level: 36 home runs, 111 RBI. Albert Pujols looked rejuvenated at the plate, hitting 28 homers and driving in 105, and the acquisition of Huston Street added one of the top closers in the game to an already-strong bullpen. But the Achilles' heel of the Angels in the postseason might be their starting pitching. While Garrett Richards proved himself as one of the American League's top pitchers, he's injured and will not pitch in the playoffs. That will leave the Angels relying on a declining Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson (who had his worst season in years), and rookie Matt Shoemaker, who won 16 games but has zero postseason experience. In the end, it might not be enough.
Oakland Athletics
Preseason prediction: 95-97 wins
Actual record: 88-74
Oh man. What the hell happened to the Oakland A's? On August 12, the A's were 27 games over .500 and bound for glory. On September 31, the A's blew a 7-3 lead and lost the wild card game. It was a stunning collapse for one of the prohibitive favorites in the American League coming into the season. As the deadline approached, GM Billy Beane went all-in, trading All-Star outfielder Yoenis Cespedes and several top prospects in an effort to make their pitching staff unstoppable. It didn't work. Now, Oakland faces an uncertain future. Cespedes is gone, and while Brandon Moss and Josh Donaldson are big power threats, there isn't that much around them. If Jon Lester leaves in free agency, then the A's gave up a beloved star for just about nothing. The A's have talent in the rotation: Sonny Gray emerged as one of the top starters in the league, Scott Kazmir and Jesse Chavez were revelations, and Jeff Samardzija will return. Still, if the A's can't get back to the postseason next year, it might be time to ditch Moneyball.
Seattle Mariners
Preseason prediction: 72-75 wins
Actual record: 87-75
Before the season, my take on the Seattle Mariners was basically this: congrats on getting Robbie Cano, now go fix the rest of the team. Then the Mariners almost made the playoffs and made me look like a total dip. While the offense wasn't very good outside of Cano and Kyle Seager, the Mariners boasted a top defense and a very strong pitching staff. Felix Hernandez was his customary brilliant self, and backed by the criminally underrated Hisashi Iwakuma, an out-of-nowhere good season by Chris Young, and encouraging performances by youngsters Roenis Elias and the fireballing James Paxton, the Mariners allowed the fewest runs in the American League. Alas, it wasn't quite enough. The Mariners lost 9 of 12 at the absolute worst possible time, and a Sonny Gray shutout on the last day of the season formally ended their playoff hopes. Everyone will be back next year, and maybe, just maybe, Seattle will finish the job.
Texas Rangers
Preseason prediction: 91-94 wins
Actual record: 67-95
Oh man. Oh maaaaaaaaaaan this team turned out to suck. OK. Adrian Beltre and Leonys Martin were really good. That's about all I can say that's positive. Big-name acquisitions Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo sucked, then got hurt. Yu Darvish got hurt. Derek Holland and Matt Harrison combined for 10 appearances. Ron Washington resigned. They used 40 different pitchers. Three different position players pitched in games that year. Everything that could have possibly gone wrong for the Rangers went horribly, smashingly wrong. Let's pray for the souls of the Texas Rangers. It's all we can do. We must pray.
Maybe it's the ninth inning of a ten-run blowout. Maybe it's the sixteenth inning and the home team has run out of pitchers. There aren't very many scenarios where a position player might have to pitch, but it never fails to be fun. It's also rare - it's only happened seventeen times so far this MLB season. Only two position players have done it twice in 2014. I have set out to answer the question that no one was asking: which position player did the best job pitching this year? Here are the rankings, from worst to first.
15. Dean Anna, New York Yankees
When I watched Dean Anna's lone pitching appearance in a 16-1 Yankees loss on April 19, I figured he had to just be throwing terrible knuckleballs. None of his pitches were harder than 72. His slowest pitch was 57. But then I read Fangraphs' Brad Johnson's article analyzing his appearance, and it's plain to see that he was throwing fastballs. We might be able to end it right there. The thing is, Dean Anna's turn on the mound didn't start out so bad. Here's leadoff man James Loney swinging right through one of Anna's slowballs!
The Captain's loving it!
Unfortunately for Mr. Anna, that would be the high point of his night. After he started at shortstop and went 0-3 with a K, Anna gave up two runs on three hits - and it's a wonder he didn't give up more. He was just laying them in there on a tee, and I suspect that he only got three outs because the hitters were getting so overexcited to hit what were likely the meatiest pitches they had seen all year. Sadly, it wouldn't really get better for Dean Anna either. After winning the Pacific Coast League batting title in 2013, Anna hit just .136 for the Yankees and was designated for assignment on July 3.
14. Mike Carp, Boston Red Sox
Red Sox bench bat Mike Carp got his chance to show off his arm in a blowout loss to the Yankees on April 24, and he certainly seemed to be enjoying it:
Unlike Dean Anna, Carp actually was throwing knuckleballs, and they actually knuckled pretty decently. Carp mixed in a low 80s fastball, but mainly stuck with the knuckler - we'll see a few guys try out the knuckleball as we move on through the list. Carp got off to a decent start, walking Mark Teixeira but then immediately getting Brian McCann to ground into a double play. Then, he totally lost it. Carp kept throwing the knuckleball, but like many who've come before him, he lacked any ability to control it. Carp walked the next three batters he faced. This one got away from him a little bit:
With the bases loaded and two out, it was time for the marquee showdown of the game: Carp versus Jacoby Ellsbury, who had fled Boston for a big-bucks Yankee contract before the season. Ellsbury had been booed all night. The stakes literally couldn't have been higher.
Eventually, Carp got a called strike two to work the count full. Faced with the possibility of Mike Carp striking out the hated traitor Ellsbury, the Boston fans still left at Fenway went nuts. Look at this dude and his enormous mouth:
Red Sox Cowboy and his lovely bride were getting into it:
Alas, Carp walked him. A run scored, and although he got Kelly Johnson to swing at a pitch ten feet high and pop up to keep the Yankee rally at one run, what matters is that Mike Carp walked five men in a single inning. Tough to get much worse than that.
13. Travis Snider, Pittsburgh Pirates
Oh hey there.
Travis Snider has been a useful bench piece for the Pittsburgh Pirates this year, but none of that matters here. After Edinson Volquez (Dodger legend!) was bombed for eight runs in two and a third against the Reds, Snider came into the ninth inning of a 9-3 ballgame, looking to create matchup problems with his lefthanded craftiness. Snider showed decent velocity with an mid-80s fastball and actually got Skip Schumaker, who made two pitching appearances for the Dodgers last year, to ground to short on the first pitch. Snider went on to walk the next two batters, including relief pitcher JJ Hoover in a rare position player pitching versus relief pitcher hitting matchup. Both runs eventually scored on a double by Billy Hamilton and a Todd Frazier groundout, leaving Snider with an ERA that's still better than Ernesto Frieri's. But like a ray of light shining through the darkness, Snider had his moment. With two out, the outfielder matched up with Joey Votto, the 2010 NL MVP and one of the best pure hitters in baseball. And Snider was masterful. He pounded Votto with fastballs early in the count, and although he fell behind at 2-1, it was obviously all part of the plan. That's when Snider dropped a changeup, a pitch he hadn't shown previously in the inning, getting Votto to swing and miss. On 2-2, he threw the changeup AGAIN, striking Votto out. Cue the euphoria at PNC Park, and the pain in Joey Votto's soul.
I know that feel, brah.
12. Martin Maldonado, Milwaukee Brewers
JOE INGLETT. Remember Joe Inglett? No? I'm the only one? Cool, whatever. Backup catcher Martin Maldonado threw a scoreless inning for the Milwaukee Brewers on April 30, but it was about as unimpressive as a scoreless inning gets. Best known for literally hitting the cover off the ball in a game earlier this year, Maldonado threw a free and easy high-70s to low-80s fastball just about every pitch, basically just pumping batting practice pitches into the strike zone. At one point, he came out with a 69 mile-an-hour changeup, amusing Cardinal catcher Tony Cruz:
Maldonado faced four batters, and gave up three line drives and a sharp ground ball. With a 75% line drive rate and a 0.0 K/9, my advanced analysis tells me that he's due for a big-time regression. Maldonado gave up a leadoff single to Allen Craig, and the next three hitters smashed balls directly at third baseman Jeff Bianchi. Maldonado danced away with a spotless ERA, but convinced none of the people watching of his pitching chops. A scoreless inning is a scoreless inning, I guess.
11. Steve Tolleson, Toronto Blue Jays
This one was boring, so let's be brief: utility man Steve Tolleson pitched in the 9th inning on May 14 against Cleveland. Down 15-2, Tolleson entered the game with two out after Neil Wagner surrendered six runs in the inning. Throwing all mid-70s BP fastballs, Tolleson gave up a double to Lonnie Chisenhall, but then got Mike Aviles to pop up to third. He threw only four pitches. After he got Aviles out, a guy made this face:
He looks like Fat Nick Kroll.
10. Daniel Descalso, St. Louis Cardinals
I have even less to say about Daniel Descalso, who threw only two pitches in a 17-5 loss to the Cubs on May 12. The utility infielder faced boom-or-bust slugger Mike Olt with a runner on first after lefty Randy Choate (Dodger legend!) melted down for six runs in the top of the ninth. Again, Descalso threw only two pitches, and while I didn't see their velocity on the TV broadcast, they both appeared to be fastballs with pretty decent zip. Descalso is an infielder known for his defensive prowess (and really weak hitting), so I don't doubt that he has a good enough arm to crank that fastball up pretty well. Olt ended up hitting a fly ball just short of the track which was caught for the final out of the inning. Descalso's line: 1/3 of an inning pitched, no hits, no runs, no walks, no strikeouts, one runner stranded. Good work.
9. Leury Garcia, Chicago White Sox
At 5'8'', 170 pounds, White Sox utlity man Leury Garcia doesn't exactly have a pitcher's frame. He's got a pitcher's batting average though, so on April 16 he was called in to pitch in the 14th inning of a 4-4 game against the Red Sox - Robin Ventura had somehow managed to use his entire bullpen by then. Out of the fifteen players I watched for this column, Leury Garcia's finely tuned arsenal put them all to shame. Over the course of his 25-pitch inning, I counted five different pitches: a high-80s four-seam fastball, a two-seamer, a changeup, a slider, and a 71 mile-an-hour curveball. Garcia began his inning with a moment of pure terror: on his second pitch, Grady Sizemore hit a sharp grounder to first fielded on a sprawling play by Jose Abreu. Unused to his surroundings, our man Leury completely forgets to cover first base, forcing Abreu to scramble over to make the play. Realizing his mistake, Leury makes this face:
Garcia got two quick outs on just four pitches, but from there some tough breaks unraveled his night. The home plate umpire squeezed Leury on some crucial pitches that I thought were strikes, and he ends up issueing back-to-back walks. With two on and two out, it's Garcia versus light-hitting center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., and on a 3-2 pitch, he uncorks a fastball placed perfectly on the inside corner...
...Which Bradley manages to hit about a foot fair down the right field line, scoring both runners. Garcia gets former AL MVP Dustin Pedroia to roll over on a curveball on the outside corner, but the damage is done. The White Sox ended up falling 6-4, and Leury Garcia's career pitching record stands at 0-1. I see this outing as the antithesis of Martin Maldonado's - while Maldonado lucked his way into a scoreless inning, Garcia really wasn't that bad, and deserved better. Either way, Robin Ventura needs to manage his bullpen better.
8. Lyle Overbay, Milwaukee Brewers
This is why I love position players pitching. The game's a blowout, you're not really paying attention, and all of a sudden you look up and see something like this:
Lyle Overbay is 37 years old. He was drafted in 1999, and made his big league debut in 2001. This is the first time he's stepped on the mound since his days at the University of Nevada. And it probably shouldn't have happened. The above screenshot comes from a May 19 game between the Brewers and the Braves, and just moments before it had been a tight one. An eighth inning home run by Ryan Braun had made it a 4-3 game - manager Ron Roenicke rolled the dice and went with rookie Wei-Chung Wang, who ended up giving up five runs and turning it into a laugher. Thus, with runners on the corners and two out in a 9-3 game, Roenicke decided to send in veteran lefthander Lyle Overbay to turn around switch-hitter Ryan Doumit and get out of the inning. And he did it! Overbay threw in the high-70s (I'd like to imagine he threw harder in college) and at one point broke off a 67 mile-an-hour slider, before getting Doumit to pop up on a 3-2 fastball. Lyle Overbay: one of the finest lefty specialists in the National League.
7. Adam Dunn, Chicago White Sox
Here is proof that God exists:
I've been waiting my entire life for this.
Think about it: why shouldn't Adam Dunn be good at pitching? He's a big, strong guy. He was recruited as a quarterback by Texas, so he's obviously familiar with the art of throwing things. He's struck out 2,339 times in his career, so he's obviously familiar with the mechanics of a strikeout. So when the big man finally toed the rubber for the first time on August 5 against Texas, the whole world snapped to attention. While Dunn gave up a run, I didn't think he was that bad. Dunn went after the Ranger hitters with a heavy, 80 mile-an-hour sinker that had a surprising amount of movement, and didn't give up any really solid contact. Dunn gave up an infield single that really might have been an error - with one out, Jim Adduci hit a chopper to short that Alexei Ramirez fielded on the move but dropped on the transfer. Dunn then walked Adrian Beltre and got (the next guy on this list) J.P. Arencibia to pop up to first, but Adam Rosales was able to loop a two-out base hit into shallow center to bring Adduci home. Rougned Odor was the next man up - I think I should note here that Rougned Odor has a brother who is also named Rougned Odor - and he flew out to left on a 3-2 pitch. I went in expecting Dunn to do a lot worse than he did, and I was honestly surprised with the quality of his pitches. He certainly does seem like he knows how to throw things. The next night, it was back to normal for the Big Donkey - he went 0-4.
6. J.P. Arencibia, Texas Rangers
J.P. Arencibia is one of the only players this season to both face a position player as a hitter (as noted above, he popped up against Adam Dunn) and to also pitch himself. The most recent position player to try his hand at hurler, Arencibia had his turn against the Tampa Bay Rays in a 10-1 blowout back on August 13. Arencibia entered the game in the top of the ninth after starter Miles Mikolas surrendered all ten runs, and he certainly acquitted himself much better than Mikolas did. Arencibia didn't have the best knuckleball, but it certainly wasn't bad. Thrown in the low 70s, it had decent movement and the Rays seemed to have trouble figuring it out. Arencibia found himself locked in a battle with leadoff man Matt Joyce, but after he got Joyce to pop up on a 3-2 pitch, the next guys up all swung at either the first or second pitch. The next batter was infielder Logan Forsythe, and he hit a sharp grounder that Elvis Andrus fielded before jumping in the air and firing a bullet to first...
Ye Gods! Who is that impossibly limber first baseman? Why, it's our old friend Mike Carp, now banished to one of the few AL teams worse than the Red Sox! Carp gave himself a quintuple-hernia in vain as Forsythe barely beat this throw out, but Arencibia bounced back and got James Loney and Sean Rodriguez to both fly out to end the inning. Arencibia got the final two outs on just three pitches, allowing Rangers staff more time to rush Mike Carp to the hospital. A solid effort all around.
5. Chris Gimenez, Texas Rangers
Chris Gimenez is a backup catcher/utility man who's spent parts of six seasons in the big leagues with the Indians, Mariners, Rays and Rangers. He was designated for assignment by Texas on August 7, after appearing in 34 games with the Rangers this season. He has a .215 career batting average. Yet even if he never plays in another big league game, Chris Gimenez is golden. He'll always have that night he mowed down the LA Angels.
Gimenez pounded the strike zone with mid-80s fastballs, only throwing balls on three of his twelve pitches. This kind of accuracy is almost unprecedented among position players pitching. Gimenez got immediately ahead of the first two hitters he faced, getting David Freese to ground out on a 1-2 pitch and then striking out slugger C.J. Cron with a 1-2 changeup at 75. Gimenez then got catcher Hank Conger to fly to center, and Gimenez's 12-pitch, 1-2-3 inning was declared a success. And he was enjoying it:
Efficient. Competent. Gimenez.
4. Mitch Moreland, Texas Rangers
Seriously, another Ranger? Another Ranger. This team is awful. Mitch Moreland's accomplishments as a position player pitching get a lot less impressive when you do a second of research and discover that he actually made 25 appearances as a pitcher in college for Mississippi State, and had a 3.27 ERA. HE'S A DAMN RINGER. I wasn't able to find any pictures of him in action, but I did find this:
Coolest kid in sixth grade right there. Once I learned this important fact, Moreland stepping onto the mound and immediately firing a 94 mile-an-hour fastball past Jordan Pacheco on the first pitch of his night didn't surprise me as much. In fact, save for one changeup, every pitch that Moreland threw was over 90. The control was spotty - he nearly beaned Corey Dickerson with one heater - and he gave up some pretty sharp contact, and it's really on velocity alone that he's ranked this high. It was more fun to listen to the Rangers announcers passive-aggressively whine about how everything the Rockies hit was falling that night (they had 21 hits). At one point, one of their announcers gifted us the bold take that there were "worse pitchers in the big leagues" than Moreland. And after watching Chris Perez pitch a couple dozen times this year, I don't disagree! Maybe Mitch Moreland could have had a successful career as a pitcher, had he taken a different path. Instead, he hit .246 this year before having season-ending ankle surgery. The Rangers are in last place, so at least he's not missing anything.
3. Drew Butera, Los Angeles Dodgers
Rare is the position player who ever gets to step on the mound during a big league game. Even rarer is the position player who makes more than one pitching appearance in a single season. Last year, the Dodgers had Skip Schumaker take two scoreless turns on the mound - this year, it was backup catcher Drew Butera. Butera got his first chance on May 14, with the Dodgers down 13-3 to the Miami Marlins at Dodger Stadium. At this point, everyone was beyond the point of caring about the score, so the mood was light when Butera gathered together with starting catcher AJ Ellis and most of the Dodger rotation for a conference before he went out to toe the rubber:
Adorable. Is it weird that I can recognize Zack Greinke by the back of his head? Because I can. Butera obviously got some fantastic advice during this powwow, because he went onto the mound and just killed it. It's worthy of note that position player pitching appearances are ten times better when announced by Vin Scully - always with an eye toward history, Scully ran down the list of Dodger position players to pitch in a game, an exclusive list including the likes of Jeff Hamilton, Mickey Hatcher, Robin Ventura (betcha didn't know Robin Ventura played for the Dodgers!) and Mark Loretta. In this one, Butera ripped through the Marlins 1-2-3, working at a fast pace and throwing only 11 pitches. After getting Christian Yelich to line out to center and Ed Lucas to hit a harmless grounder to short, Drew Butera faced off with center fielder Marcell Ozuna - what ensued was nothing short of a demolition.
Marcell Ozuna is a good baseball player. His 16 home runs and 62 RBI are both second on the team behind Giancarlo Stanton. What Drew Butera did to him should be immortalized in an airbrush painting on the side of a van. Butera ambushes him with a first pitch heater at 90 miles-an-hour - the first time he had touched 90 that night - and Ozuna swings right through it. Now, the fans were already excited enough, seeing the backup catcher gunning 90 and all, but then Butera had to go and drop a brutal 74 mile-an-hour curveball that had Ozuna swinging about ten minutes too early.
Look at that face. Look at it. Ozuna can't comprehend what is happening to him. He's only human, after all. At least Butera was kind enough to put him out of his misery. Butera goes back upstairs with a fastball and Ozuna legitimately didn't have a chance. It's at this point, after Marcell Ozuna's embarrassment is complete, that the crowd all looks up at the speed meter at once - it reads 94. It's at this point that the crowd, or what's left of it, completely loses it. Even Vin Scully, the man who has announced Dodger games since 1950, the man who has seen just about everything that can possibly happen in the game of baseball, is in disbelief. People are jumping up and down in the stands:
Get a longer shirt, dude.
Now firmly entrenched as a staple of the Dodger bullpen, Butera would get another turn on the mound three nights later, in that one weird game against Arizona where Clayton Kershaw got totally bombed and the Dodgers lost 18-7. After sweat factory Chris Perez gave up back-to-back homers to powerhouses Eric Chavez and A.J. Pollock, Butera was called into action needing only two outs to get through the bottom of the 8th. He immediately gets back to his old tricks - he quickly jumps ahead of shortstop Chris Owings, changing speeds from the low-90s to the mid-70s with ease, before Owings is able to slap a double into the corner. Next up: Paul Goldschmidt. Now, for a position player, Drew Butera is a very, very good pitcher. But he's still a position player. And this is a horrific mismatch. Goldschmidt crushes a home run into the left field seats - strangely, it's the only home run surrendered by a position player all season. Still, Butera got right back to it, inducing a groundout from rookie outfielder Ender Inciarte and striking out Martin Prado looking with a heater right on the black.
Ol' boy was frozen. Prado's just lucky that Drew didn't do him like he did Ozuna. Of any of the players I watched for this piece, nobody had the natural talent that Butera had. His ability to change speeds was objectively excellent - not a whole lot of real big league pitchers can follow up 74 with 94 just like that, but Butera did. It's easy to see why he's a catcher, since he has a natural cannon arm, which he's used to throw out an above-average 33% of prospective base-stealers this season. And honestly, I don't care that he gave up a bomb to Paul Goldschmidt. I don't care that his ERA is 9.00. What Butera did to Marcell Ozuna is enough.
2. Danny Worth, Detroit Tigers
There are a couple players on this list who I think might have made a solid pitcher had the circumstances of their career been different. Danny Worth is the only one who I really, actively believe should switch to the mound. As a position player, he's nothing to write home about. He's appeared in 135 games in parts of five big league seasons, hitting .230. His career WAR is negative. He was 7-42 when he was designated for assignment by the Tigers back in June.
On the mound, however, Danny Worth unleashes one of the most devious knuckleballs this side of Phil Niekro. Worth got his chance to show his stuff on May 22 against Texas, down 9-2 - as usual, when a position player takes the mound, the whole team snaps to attention:
Worth's mastery of the knuckleball was immediately apparent. The ball was moving all around the place, with little to no spin at all - he not only retired the side very quickly, he generated a ton of swings and misses. While experienced pitcher Chris Gimenez got a bloop single to lead off the inning, it was the only adversity Worth would face all night. The next man up was rookie outfielder Michael Choice, who according to WAR, is the worst baseball player in the big leagues. Worth showed us why - he didn't just strike Choice out, he twisted the poor guy up like a pretzel:
Worth wasn't done, striking out Leonys Martin looking (admittedly, on a pitch that was about a foot high) to end the inning. It was undeniably impressive. Impressive enough that manager Brad Ausmus decided to go back to Worth two days later, when the Tigers were again down big-time to the Rangers. Two appearances in the same series! I honestly don't think that's ever happened before. Worth showed that his success the first time wasn't a fluke. Again, the knuckleball was jumping all around the place. Worth threw it in the 68-72 range, and it seemed to just drop off the table each time he threw it - he usually started it high and let it nestle itself into the zone, leading to a lot of swings and misses over the ball. Worth immediately got Leonys Martin and Donnie Murphy to hit harmless grounders to start off the inning, and for a moment it looked like Worth was going hold the Rangers scoreless again. The fans were happy, and at one point, reigning Cy Young Award winner and freakish amphibian Max Scherzer made this face:
Alas, it wasn't to be. First, Rougned Odor (who has a brother named Rougned Odor) hits a bloop double into shallow left. Then, Michael Choice avenges his embarrassment by smacking the only bad knuckleball that Worth threw all day off the left field wall, bringing Odor home. On the next pitch, Elvis Andrus dribbles a grounder through the hole, Choice stopping at third. Worth got himself out the jam by getting inferior pitcher Mitch Moreland to ground to first, leaving him with a 4.50 ERA for the season. Just as in the case of Drew Butera, I don't care that he gave up a run or two. Danny Worth showed that he has rare ability to throw the knuckleball - I mean, look at this thing. This is legitimate. This talent should not, cannot go to waste. Danny Worth, please become a pitcher. And please sign with the Dodgers when you do.
1. John Baker, Chicago Cubs
By no means is John Baker the best pitcher on this list. He never threw a pitch over 80 miles per hour. He had zero control of his breaking ball. He had this ridiculous slackjawed look on his face while looking in for the signs:
But John Baker got a win. He won. He is a winner. That's rare. John Baker also scored the winning run. That's rarer. The last position player to get a win AND score the winning run in the same game was Rocky Colavito all the way back in 1968. So, by default, John Baker is #1. He has to be.
It was also the longest game in the history of the Chicago Cubs. That's a history that goes back to 1870. And the way Baker did it was so... run of the mill. Like he'd been there before. First, he got light-hitting utility man Charlie Culberson to pop up. Then he walked Drew Stubbs after a seven-pitch battle - the at-bat extended when catcher Welington Castillo failed to catch a foul pop up. That was erased when rookie infielder Christhian Adames grounded into a double play. He threw only 11 pitches. Baker led off the next inning, walked, and eventually scored the winning run on a Starlin Castro sacrifice fly.
So John Baker is #1. Because he was the hero. Drew Butera, Danny Worth, Mitch Moreland, they were all better pitchers. But they were sideshows. Fun distractions in meaningless innings. Not heroes. What I'm saying is this: I'm going to put up a Kickstarter for a John Baker statue outside of Wrigley Field. Maybe we can get him put on the seven-dollar bill. Heroes deserve something. John Baker is a hero.
Clayton Kershaw and the Best Pitching Peaks of All Time
In case you didn't know by now, Clayton Kershaw is unbelievable. The Los Angeles Dodgers lefthander has thoroughly affirmed his status as the greatest pitcher in the world today, and perhaps one of the greatest of all time, with another terrific season - after last night's complete game win over Atlanta, Kershaw's record sits at 13-2, with a 1.71 ERA, and an even 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Kershaw seems destined for his third Cy Young in four years (the only year he didn't win, he finished second), and seems to be reaching heights not seen since the likes of Pedro Martinez and Greg Maddux terrorized Steroid Era hitters. Moreover, if you look back a little bit further - back into the middle of his magnificent 2011 season, where Kershaw won his first Cy Young - you'll find something truly incredible. Over his last 100 starts, Clayton Kershaw's ERA sits at an even 2.00. Since the beginning of the live ball era, only four other men have had a 100-start stretch with an ERA at 2.00 or below, all Hall of Famers. How does Kershaw stack up?
A Hall of Famer as of this week, Greg Maddux was the dominant pitcher of the 90s. A pitcher's pitcher's pitcher, Maddux was a master of location and sequencing - but the man could still strike you out. The peak of Maddux's career came in a four-season stretch from 1992-1995, encompassing his last year as a Cub and his first three as an Atlanta Brave. In those four seasons, Maddux became the first man to win four straight Cy Youngs, seizing the status of best pitcher in the world. From '92 to '95, Maddux started 124 games - 37 of them complete games, with 11 shutouts - and went 75-29 with a 1.98 ERA. This incredible feat is made even more impressive by the era in which he pitched (for comparison, while the total batting average of the National League is .249 this year, it was .267 in 1995) and the fact that he spent most of his days at two fabled bandboxes, Wrigley Field and the "Launching Pad", Atlanta's Fulton County Stadium. In one of the most hitter-friendly eras in baseball history, in two of the most hitter-friendly parks, Maddux was incredibly dominant. He devoured innings, slashed his walk rate into oblivion, and despite staying constantly in the strike zone, he barely allowed any home runs - just 33 in four years, including a 1994 season where he gave up just four round-trippers in over 200 innings pitched. Meanwhile, that ERA stayed under 2.00 for well over 100 starts. What a pitcher.
While Maddux did his thing in a decidedly hitter-friendly period, the next two pitchers thrived in an era where the pitcher was king. While Bob Gibson only recorded one season with an ERA under 2.00, that season was the stuff of legend. In 1968, the Year of the Pitcher, Gibson set a record that will never be broken with an unthinkable 1.12 ERA, on his way to a Cy Young (he'd win another in 1970) and an MVP. Driven by that outlandish 1968 season, Gibson's ERA from '66-'68 sits at 2.04 - factor in the first nine starts of the 1969 season, and it dips down to 1.99. Gibson is unquestionably one of the greatest pitchers of the live ball era, but that 1968 season really skews the hell out of his stats. In 1968, the deck was so far stacked in favor of the pitcher that they lopped five inches off the mound and reduced the size of the strike zone afterward. While Gibson still managed a 2.18 ERA in 1969, he'd never enjoy that type of dominance again. Gibson also enjoyed the benefit of pitching in spacious Busch Stadium, historically a strong pitcher's park. I'd place his run firmly behind Maddux.
It seems like wherever Clayton Kershaw's name is mentioned, Sandy Koufax's isn't far behind. Koufax's peak is one of the most storied and celebrated in baseball history - from 1963 to 1966, Koufax pitched the Dodgers to two World Series titles and garnered three Cy Youngs and an MVP. In those four seasons, Koufax made 150 starts, completed 89 of them, threw 31 shutouts, and posted a 1.86 ERA. His dominance was all-encompassing. Those three Cy Youngs become a little more impressive when you realize that back then there was only one award handed out for the best pitcher in all of baseball, instead of one per league. In fact, he was the only pitcher ever to win three Cy Youngs before the award was split. Yes, Dodger Stadium is a pitcher's park - although I think its reputation is a little skewed by the consistently fantastic pitching, and uninspiring offenses, the Dodgers have tended to put out there since the team's move to Los Angeles - but Koufax's peak is so storied for a reason. Despite the fact that strikeout rates were much lower than what you see today (in 1966, the total number of strikeouts in the NL was about half the total in 2013), Koufax piled up strikeout totals that would be impressive even in the present day. Koufax's strikeout-to-walk ratio during his peak outpace those of Gibson and Maddux, and he did it while pitching through a serious arm injury that medicine at the time could not effectively treat. While today he might have been able to get Tommy John surgery, or some other procedure, and extend his career, Koufax instead was forced to pitch through tremendous pain every start, and still managed to put up unparalleled numbers. Koufax's initial injury likely happened midway through the 1964 season, meaning that most of his streak occurred with a severe injury. That might be enough to tip the scales in his favor for Best Pitching Run of All Time.
Hal Newhouser is a Hall of Famer, the dominant pitcher of his era, and still probably the forgotten man on this list. During World War II, Newhouser owned the American League, twice earning AL MVP honors in the era before the Cy Young Award existed. Newhouser was a hotshot prospect struggling with control problems before the United States entered the war - a heart issue kept Newhouser from the service, and with the talent pool getting shallower and shallower as the war raged on, Newhouser came into his own. That's not to say that Newhouser was merely a big fish in a small pond. Newhouser posted a 1.94 ERA in 1946 after most of baseball's top-level talent returned, and continued to be a high-quality pitcher for a number of years to come. Newhouser's sub-2.00 run comes between the 1944 and 1946 seasons, where he posted an 80-27 record with a 1.99 ERA in 124 total appearances, 104 of them starts, with 83 complete games and 20 shutouts. Newhouser was certainly a dominant pitcher, and I hate to dismiss his run out of hand, but we don't know what his stats would have looked like if the war didn't happen. Newhouser was certainly the best pitcher in the big leagues at his peak, but the special circumstances created by World War II means that he can't be considered along the previous four pitchers.
So what about Clayton Kershaw? Where does he fit? Like most of the pitchers above, Kershaw has benefited from circumstance - a strikeout pitcher, he's been helped by pitching in the most strikeout-friendly era in baseball history, as well as the opportunity to toe the slab in Dodger Stadium. He hasn't yet achieved the sustained magnificence that Maddux or Koufax achieved in their primes, but he has something going for him in 2014 that even they never were able to approach - through 121.1 innings, Kershaw has an unthinkable 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. 150 strikeouts, 15 walks. Kershaw is combining the strikeout rate of someone like Randy Johnson with the walk rate of Greg Maddux, and the results are absolutely devastating. Kershaw is still just 26, and he still appears to be improving. There's every reason to believe that the next 100 starts are going to be better than the last 100.
So which of these men had the best pitching peak? It should be noted that Pedro Martinez's incredible prime isn't on the list, but he may have been better than them all - despite pitching at Fenway Park during the Steroid Era, Pedro's numbers are absolutely ludicrous. Specifically, from 1997-2000, Pedro struck out 11.5 batters per nine innings, while walking only two, with a 2.16 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. Moreover, his ERA+, which adjusts a pitcher's ERA to his ballpark and league, is the greatest among any starting pitcher in the history of baseball. (Second on that list? Clayton Kershaw.) If it weren't for a 2.89 ERA (Horrible! Wretched!) in '98, he'd be on this list... but alas, he falls short. For my money, the title goes to either Greg Maddux or Sandy Koufax. There's Maddux, who had every reason why he shouldn't have been able to do what he did, but did it anyway - and Koufax, who made history despite unbearable pain. I find it extremely difficult to pick between the two, but in the end, I lean towards Koufax. Will he still hold the crown in ten years? Twenty? Who knows, but Clayton Kershaw has as good a chance as any to overtake him.
First round, pick #27 overall: Deone Bucannon, S, Washington State
6’1’’, 211 lb.
A star safety for a middling Washington State program, Deone Bucannon earned a reputation as an athletic and hard-hitting safety that carried him to numerous program records and first team All-Pac 12 honors his senior year. In this day and age, we may not celebrate hard hits like we used to, but there’s still room in the NFL for a bone-crusher. Bucannon is not only a bone-crusher, he’s the best kind of bone-crusher – a guy who hits with aggression and natural pop, but with solid tackling form. He’s also got the natural athleticism and range to play center field, he goes up and gets the ball easily and he’s shown some real playmaking ability in his career thus far (15 interceptions at Washington State). At this point, Bucannon is probably a bit too overaggressive – he tends to overpursue, take bad angles, and lose contain - but as I’ve written before in this series, I’d rather try to rein in an overaggressive player than try to make a lion out of a lamb. Bucannon is big, he hits hard, and he’s an athletic playmaker… that sounds like the kind of guy I’d want starting at strong safety. Deone Bucannon and Tyrann Mathieu in the same backfield? That’s gonna be fun.
Second round, pick #52 overall: Troy Niklas, TE, Notre Dame
6’6’’, 270 lb.
An Anaheim native, Troy Niklas originally came to Notre Dame as a highly-rated offensive lineman, and he played linebacker as a freshman – he moved to tight end as a sophomore in 2012, backing up star Tyler Eifert, before seizing the starting spotlight in 2013. Niklas is an intriguing prospect – he has great potential as a blocker, owing to his size, strength and past experience as a top-tier high school offensive lineman. He’s still a work in progress as a receiver, a role he’s still adjusting to. He moves well for a guy his size, he has soft hands, and while he was mainly used as a short-to-intermediate target, you imagine with his athleticism that he could become a downfield threat as his route-running develops. He’s still new to the position but improving rapidly. The Cardinals have several solid veteran tight ends already in the fold – Rob Housler, Jake Ballard, and John Carlson – but the position still isn’t really a great strength, and in time I expect that Niklas will emerge head and shoulders above that group and become a very good two-way tight end.
Third round, pick #84 overall: Kareem Martin, DE, North Carolina
6’6’’, 272 lb.
Kareem Martin contributed from day one for the North Carolina Tar Heels, and while he became a full-time starter by his sophomore year, it wasn’t until 2013 that he really made a name for himself. In his senior season, Martin broke out with 11.5 sacks, earning first team All-ACC honors. Physically, Martin is the prototype for an NFL defensive end: 6’6’’, around 270 lb., 35-inch arms. That size isn’t backed up with great mobility, but the length alone is a big boon for him as a pass-rusher. He showed some ability as a stand-up rusher as well with his hand on the ground, but I fear he’ll be limited with his sluggish get-off and his average quickness and speed. He doesn’t have the strength to bull over NFL tackles or consistently hold his ground in the run game, not yet at least – if he can build some strength in the weight room, he has the ideal physical dimensions and smarts to be a starter.
Third round, pick #91 overall: John Brown, WR, Pittsburg State
5’10’’, 179 lb.
The Pittsburg State Gorillas, a small Division II program in rural southeast Kansas, hadn’t had a player drafted since 1993 – back then it was Ronald Moore, a superstar running back who wound up spending six years in the NFL and rushed for over 1,000 yards as a rookie with the then-Phoenix Cardinals. Obviously, Arizona didn’t forget, as they went back to the well with the 91st pick. In his three year career at Pitt State, John Brown broke every relevant receiving record and helped lead the Gorillas to a Division II national title. What Brown lacks in size he makes up with fantastic speed and playmaking ability – he doubled as a very productive return man – and he’s known for his quick route running and good hands. Brown was projected to go much later, but the Cardinals see the makings of a dynamic slot receiver and return man in him. He wasn’t going up against the best competition, but you can tell that his playmaking ability is going to translate – you can’t teach speed.
Fourth round, pick #120 overall: Logan Thomas, QB, Virginia Tech
6’6’’, 248 lb.
Logan Thomas’ career at Virginia Tech was one of unfulfilled potential. A big, athletic quarterback with all the talent in the world, Thomas seized the starting job as a sophomore and immediately succeeded, receiving second team All-ACC honors. Unfortunately, Thomas was never able to build on that early success, and he struggled with interceptions and inconsistent play his last two year. Thomas has all the measurable you could ever want – 6’6’’, 248 lb., a top performer in every exercise he participated in at the combine, with running ability and a truly powerful arm. Thomas seems to be a little overconfident in that cannon arm, as he repeatedly tries to force throws through tight windows, to oft-disastrous effect. He shows nice accuracy underneath, but further than that it falls apart – he misses reads, he sails throws, and times are tough. His mechanics and footwork need retooling. The raw talent is there, but I would not trust Logan Thomas out on an NFL field. His decision-making is too poor and he takes too little care of the football – he not only threw 39 interceptions in his college career, but he also fumbled 23 times. The good news? He’s going to a team helmed by veteran Bruce Arians, a bright offensive mind who has as good a chance as anyone at making Logan Thomas a player. It would be a shame to see all that talent go to waste.
Fifth round, pick #160 overall: Ed Stinson, DE, Alabama
6’3’’, 287 lb.
Ed Stinson was a defensive linchpin for two Alabama national championship teams, never a superstar, but a quietly excellent producer on the Crimson Tide’s defensive line. Stinson doesn’t have great mobility and won’t make head-turning plays, but he’s extremely strong – he’s a real asset in run defense, as he’s able to hold his ground, shed blocks and make the play. Despite the fact that he’s not a 300+ pound behemoth, Stinson could go inside and play nose tackle if need be, but would be a better fit as a three- or five-technique. Not much of a threat as a pass rusher, Stinson will still be a valuable part of the Cardinal defensive line rotation, factoring in especially on running downs.
Sixth round, pick #196 overall: Walt Powell, WR, Murray State
5’11’’, 189 lb.
The Cardinals doubled up on small school receivers – Walt Powell comes to us from Murray State, a consistently mediocre FCS school more known for its basketball team. Powell is the brother of Brandon Williams, a former Wisconsin star who spent three years in the NFL. In college, Powell made a name for himself as a pass-catcher and return man, although his numbers his senior year were curtailed by a foot injury. Powell is a quick and smart slot receiver who lacks top-end speed, physicality or athleticism, and will be limited by his short arms and slight build. I don’t really see Powell carving out a role as a receiver in the NFL, but he could find a roster spot because of his return ability. Either way, I don’t think he’ll last too long.
St. Louis Rams
First round, pick #2 overall: Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn
6’5’’, 332 lb.
For five years, the St. Louis Rams have futilely tried to find a replacement for Orlando Pace. Jason Smith, the #2 overall pick in 2009, was a total disaster. Rodger Saffold, the #33 pick in 2010, ended up at guard. Jake Long ripped his knee up. Can Greg Robinson break the spell? Robinson overcame a tough upbringing in Thibodaux, Louisiana to become one of the top guard prospects in the 2011 high school class, and as a left tackle in 2013, he was a driving force behind a truly menacing Auburn rushing attack. Robinson comes to the NFL as a 21 year old rookie (he declared after his redshirt sophomore year), and as a first team All-SEC selection who rocketed to the top of draft boards this year. Robinson was built for a power-running scheme – he’s a big, strong, long-armed tackle who mauls his opponents going forward, winning at the line of scrimmage – but he’s also surprisingly mobile and athletic, able to release into the second level with ease and crunch linebackers and defensive backs in space. Robinson is still developing his technique as a pass blocker, but he has the tools to succeed. He has no problem keeping step with quicker edge rushers, and he can, as usual, take someone out of the game when he gets his hands on him. He just looks impressive out there – he’s already proven himself against SEC competition, and he’s not even close to fulfilling his potential. There aren’t many offensive linemen out there with his combination of power and athleticism. He could (and will) start immediately at tackle, and as the finer points of his game develop, he can be an All-Pro.
First round, pick #13 overall: Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
6’1’’, 285 lb.
Looking back through the annals of this franchise’s history, you come across tales of the Fearsome Foursome, the legendary Ram defensive line of the 1960s: Deacon Jones, Merlin Olsen (both Hall of Famers), Rosey Grier (a borderline Hall of Famer himself) and Lamar Lundy (the Ringo of the group, I guess.) It’s been 48 years since those four last suited up together, but in 2014 the Rams are assembling a new Fearsome Foursome: Chris Long, Robert Quinn, Michael Brockers and Aaron Donald. Donald has the single best pedigree of any defensive lineman in the draft – he was a force of nature at Pitt, a consensus All-American who accrued honors and accolades by the bushel. Some thought that Donald’s draft stock would be limited by his lack of size – nobody told Donald. He ran a 4.68 yard dash at the Combine (the same as Johnny Manziel), was second among defensive linemen in the bench press with 35 reps, and he dominated at the Senior Bowl. He’s not just a workout warrior, however. Donald was a constantly disruptive machine in college who led Division I in tackles for loss his senior year. He’s astoundingly quick, and in the event he doesn’t immediately blow by his man, he works relentlessly until he’s in the backfield. He isn’t a two-gap hoss that occupies the middle in the run game – leave it to Brockers to do that. Donald will fit the mold of a 4-3 three-technique who rushes the passer and wreaks havoc. Interior linemen aren’t used to having to contend with someone so quick at the line of scrimmage, and Aaron Donald is going to be a difference maker. That combination of Donald, Quinn and Long will have quarterbacks constantly under siege.
Second round, pick #41 overall: Lamarcus Joyner, S, Florida State
5’8’’, 184 lb.
Then, in the second round, the Rams managed to grab one of the best players from the reigning national championship team. Lamarcus Joyner started 41 consecutive games for Florida State, made two All-ACC first teams and was a consensus All-American his senior year. Physically, Joyner isn’t exceptional – he gets beaten by speed or size, but he’s an extremely smart, instinctive player who looks to be a sort of Swiss Army knife for the Ram secondary. You might see him play some safety here, nickel corner there, blitzing sometimes, special teams, whatever they need. Is this a reach at #41? Probably. Joyner is the picture of a fantastic college player that won’t continue that kind of success to the pros, but he’s smart, quick, aggressive and committed enough to carve out a role and last in the NFL.
Third round, pick #75 overall: Tre Mason, RB, Auburn
5’8’’, 207 lb.
If All-SEC running back Michael Dyer had never let his career go off the rails, we might not have heard of Tre Mason. It’s easy to forget that Mason had a 1,000 yard season for a 3-9 Auburn team in 2012, because it seemed like he came out of nowhere last year – an absolute horse in an unstoppable rushing attack that carried the Tigers to the national championship game, Mason rushed for over 1,800 yards and earned Heisman votes. He was at his best in the big games, as well: 304 yards and 4 TDs (on 46 carries) to carry Auburn past Missouri in the SEC Championship Game, and 195 yards on 34 carries in a valiant but doomed attempt to beat Florida State in the title game. In St. Louis, Mason will team up with another undersized cannonball in Zac Stacy, and the two could form a prolific backfield. Mason, despite his lack of stature, is very durable and has shown that he can handle a gigantic workload, and I just love to watch him run. Mason packs a lot of power in that 5’8’’ frame – he runs hard and downhill and can push tacklers back for extra yards. He’s got good enough speed and he’s pretty quick in the open field, truly a running back that can beat you inside or outside. Another cool thing: his dad was in De La Soul. Just that alone should be enough for him to earn a starting job. Mason has a ton of talent, and he can be relied on to receive 20-25 carries a game for the next ten years. I like this pick.
Fourth round, pick #110 overall: Maurice Alexander, S, Utah State
6’1’’, 220 lb.
Maurice Alexander began at outside linebacker for Utah State, but his career hit a huge snag before the 2012 season. Alexander got into a fight with a teammate at a party and ended up knocking him unconscious – he was arrested for assault, was kicked off the team and served 45 days in jail. A St. Louis native, Alexander returned home and actually worked as a janitor at the Edward Jones Dome, the Rams’ home field – confident that Alexander had changed his ways, the Aggies let him return for the 2013 season, where he put up a fine performance. In college, Alexander was primarily known as an aggressive and explosive hitter, and while he’s very raw in coverage, he possesses the athleticism to succeed. Down the line, I could definitely see Alexander starting a strong safety. He’s got good size, and he plays like an outside linebacker – he makes plays downhill and charges the line of scrimmage. He’s also got a 38-inch vertical leap and he can cover a lot of ground. Expect to see Alexander as a backup and on special teams, and as his coverage skill develops, he could move into the starting lineup.
Another high-profile SEC player. E.J. Gaines pulled off a rare feat in his college career: he was first team all-conference in two different BCS conferences. His sophomore year he was first team All-Big 12, and then in 2013, after Mizzou made the move to the SEC, he was first team All-SEC. The thing I most like about Gaines is his ability to come up and make plays in the run game. He’s a very fine tackler, and while he doesn’t have exceptional athleticism, he has no problem getting to his spots and making the play. He’s a good zone corner that will have trouble one on one against speed or size, and he positions himself well, reads plays well and doesn’t make mental mistakes. This is a guy who won’t ever be a star in the NFL, but I think he’ll certainly be a valued part of a secondary. He’s smart, he’s aggressive, and he plays hard. Good third or fourth corner.
It seems like a lifetime ago that Garrett Gilbert backed up Colt McCoy at Texas. The son of longtime NFL backup Gale Gilbert, Garrett was a Texas high school legend who received unlimited hype – he was called a future Heisman Trophy winner, the best high school quarterback since Dan Marino (the guy that coached Marino in college said this!), and he received a metric ton of accolades. Naturally, being an Austin native, he chose the University of Texas. As a true freshman in 2009, Gilbert was able to seize the second-string role behind a Texas legend in his own right, Colt McCoy, in a season where the Longhorns made it all the way to the national championship game against a seemingly unbeatable Alabama team. Then, in the title game, McCoy went down. Gilbert, untested and unready, went in, and although his stat line was ugly, he nearly led the Longhorns back. McCoy graduated, but Gilbert struggled the next two seasons, seeing David Ash and Colt McCoy’s little brother Case pass him on the depth chart. Gilbert subsequently transferred to SMU and finally found some success, starting two years in June Jones’ run and shoot offense. People forgot about Garrett Gilbert, but he showed some real promise those last couple years at SMU. He’s big and athletic with good timing and accuracy out of the pocket, especially in the short to intermediate game, but he can still uncork one downfield from time to time. He can also run a little bit. Gilbert is undoubtedly a project, but he showed much better consistency his senior year, where he cut his interceptions in half – he threw a lot of short passes to his first read and sometimes stares down his receivers, but that talent that made him such a big-time prospect is definitely still there. With continued improvement, this is a guy that could be a starter in a West Coast offense. A low-risk, potentially high-reward pick.
Seventh round, pick #226 overall: Mitchell Van Dyk, OT, Portland State
6’7’’, 313 lb.
There have been a few guys in this draft that I have been able to find zero tape of – Mitchell Van Dyk is one of them. I found some footage of his Pro Day, but who cares about the Portland State Pro Day? Van Dyk has great size and long arms, and he was a very steady and reliable offensive lineman in the tough Big Sky Conference. By all accounts, Van Dyk is a tough, strong and competitive run blocker who does well working through into the second level, but struggles at time in pass protection, especially against quicker rushers. The Rams aren’t really hurting for tackles at this point – they have Jake Long, Greg Robinson and Rodger Saffold can fill in if need be – so Van Dyk will be able to develop in peace.
Seventh round, pick #241 overall: C.B. Bryant, S, Ohio State
5’9’’, 198 lb.
Urban Meyer raved about the effort, character and work ethic of C.B. Bryant during his Ohio State career – he was a talented safety who suffered through multiple injuries that destroyed his draft stock. Undersized with short arms and small hands, Bryant only had one interception in his college career, and was better known for coming up in run support and making plays at the line of scrimmage. Bryant isn’t an exceptional athlete, but he reads plays well and he’s pretty good in coverage against guys that don’t physically outmatch him. Bryant could find a spot in a team’s secondary, but more likely his role would be limited to special teams.
Seventh round, pick #249 overall: Michael Sam, DE, Missouri
6’2’’, 261 lb.
Michael Sam will make history the moment he takes the field in the NFL. As the first openly gay football player ever to be drafted, Sam has attracted a ton of attention, and it is well-deserved. Understandably, speculation on how he’ll fare as a player in the NFL has been put on the backburner. Sam was a star at Missouri, the SEC Co-Defensive Player of the Year and a consensus All-American in a breakout senior year where he recorded 11.5 sacks. Sam doesn’t have great size or athleticism, but he has a good first step and can get into the backfield to disrupt. He’s got the quickness and burst to go around tackles in a flash, and profiles well as a high-motor edge rusher in the pros. Sam’s usefulness against the run is limited – he struggles to hold his ground against run blockers and is usually wiped out against double teams, and he has trouble getting off blocks and making plays. For whatever reason, Sam dropped in the draft, but he’s got the natural ability to be an effective rusher in the NFL – he’s likely a better fit as a 3-4 linebacker. Gregg Williams, one of the craftiest defensive minds in the NFL, is the Rams defensive coordinator, and if anyone will be able to properly use Sam’s talents, it’s him. I think Michael Sam has a bright future in St. Louis.
Seventh round, pick #250 overall: Demetrius Rhaney, C, Tennessee State
6’2’’, 301 lb.
Demetrius Rhaney isn’t even the first Tennessee State lineman to go in this draft – Kadeem Edwards, a raw but promising guard, went in the fifth round to the Buccaneers. I haven’t seen much of Rhaney, but I liked what I did see. He’s quick and agile and looks smooth getting to the second level, but he shows the ability to drive block and holds the middle well in pass protection. He’s got some nasty in him as well, and, like Mitchell Van Dyk, will have the chance to develop in St. Louis without much pressure being put on him. Rhaney intrigues me – keep an eye out for him.
San Francisco 49ers
First round, pick #30 overall: Jimmie Ward, S, Northern Illinois
5’11’’, 193 lb.
Twice a first team All-MAC selection, Jimmie Ward is the 49ers’ choice to replace two-time Pro Bowl safety Donte Whitner. After establishing himself as a special teams force in his freshman year, Ward grabbed a starting strong safety and immediately succeeded - his senior year he earned third team All-American honors and recorded seven interceptions. Although he spent a lot of time in the box at NIU, Ward is probably too small to start at strong safety in the pros. It’s not that he really lacks height, but he’s skinny and not particularly strong, and you wonder about his durability if he were to play in an NFL box. Ward could play free safety, but I actually think his best fit is at corner. Ward is terrific in man coverage, has the speed to stay with anybody, and I think could be an asset either inside or outside. If the Niners decide to keep Ward at safety, I think he has to tools to succeed there too. He’s got the natural range and ball skills to play center field, and he’s a real asset in the run game. Ward’s a reliable open-field tackler, he can blitz, and he’s very quick to charge the line and toss himself in there – I love his energy and his temperament. Ward has the potential to be an absolutely vital Swiss Army knife for this 49er defense, like Lamarcus Joyner but waaaaaay better. I’m really looking forward to watching Jimmie Ward in the NFL.
Second round, pick #57 overall: Carlos Hyde, RB, Ohio State
6’0’’, 230 lb.
Full disclosure: Carlos Hyde was my single favorite player in all of college football last season. He only played in 11 games, and only started in 9 – his penance for academic issues and his involvement in an assault investigation where charges where ultimately dropped – but when he was out there he was an absolute force of nature. Hyde topped 1,500 rushing yards last year and scored 15 touchdowns, averaging over seven yards a carry, earning himself first team All-Big Ten and third team All-American honors. When you actually watch his tape, you wonder how he was only third team. A fullback in high school, Hyde is a classic three-down back who runs with power and toughness and can make a defense miserable between the tackles. He’s not just a pounder, however. Once he’s broken free, he flashes some surprising burst, balance, agility and rare creativity. He’s also a very able receiver out of the backfield, and he’s the best blocker in this year’s running back class – undoubtedly due to his past as a fullback. He’s fierce in pass protection, and the 49ers would be wise to use some two-RB sets to utilize his excellent ability as a lead blocker. Hyde is a true multitalented workhorse back, something that’s becoming a bit of a rarity nowadays – and for various reasons, his workload in college wasn’t as high as it could have been. We might see him in some Pro Bowls.
Third round, pick #70 overall: Marcus Martin, C, USC
6’3’’, 320 lb.
An LA native, Marcus Martin forced his way into the USC starting lineup early in his freshman year, spending most of the 2011 and 2012 seasons as the Trojan left guard. Martin switched to center last year following the graduation of current Indianapolis Colt Khaled Holmes, and played well enough to skip his senior year and go straight to the third round of the NFL Draft. Martin is built for the power-running scheme of the San Francisco 49ers – he’s very strong and consistently wins battles at the point of attack (see the Notre Dame game last year where he neutralized Louis Nix). This is a guy who can contend with the big boys up the middle, in either the run of the pass game. Martin doesn’t lack for quickness either, but he’s inconsistent hitting his targets on the second level. I’d also really like to see better sustain on his blocks, especially against quicker opponents. Still, Martin’s got all the talent, and he’s only going to be a 20 year old rookie – if he can’t crack the lineup immediately, he’ll have plenty of time to develop. Martin’s going to the right system for him, and he could start at either center or guard. Great pick.
Third round, pick #77 overall: Chris Borland, LB, Wisconsin
5’11’’, 248 lb.
Chris Borland was one of the best players in Wisconsin history. A three time All-Big Ten first team selection, Borland recorded over 400 tackles in his college career and his 15 forced fumbles are the second-most since they began keeping track of the stat in Division I. Borland has had to overcome the rap that he’s too short and too slow, but he was one hell of a player in college. Borland is athletic, mobile, smart, instinctive, and he has a high motor and a nose for the ball. When considering whether Borland will make a good starting inside linebacker at the NFL level, I have some reservations, however. Borland does lack height, and it’s compounded by short arms that really limit his ability to get off of blocks. His weak reach also hurts his tackling ability, and while he’s very effective making plays downhill against the run, he can be exposed in coverage. At the absolute least, Borland has the tools to be a special teams ace. If he’s not asked to do too much in man coverage, he could start. It all depends on how he’s used – at any rate, he’s a hoss against the run. Count on that.
Third round, pick #100 overall: Brandon Thomas, G, Clemson
6’3’’, 317 lb.
Last year, the San Francisco 49ers took South Carolina running back Marcus Lattimore in the fourth round – despite knowing that Lattimore would not play a down his rookie year, after he suffered a devastating knee injury the previous October. Clemson lineman Brandon Thomas is a similar case. After a fine collegiate career which saw him twice earn All-ACC honors, Thomas tore his ACL in a March pre-draft workout, and will almost definitely miss the entire season. Thomas was Clemson’s left tackle for most of his career, but appears likely to move to guard considering his height and previous experience at the position. Thomas is a slick, athletic run blocker who shows good balance and ability to consistently make blocks on the second level. Especially on the inside, I think Thomas is a better fit for a zone scheme. Thomas is powerfully-built, but he isn’t always able to channel that strength, and he struggles to get push against bigger and heavier opponents. This will be a problem in San Francisco’s power running scheme. He’s an alright pass blocker, and I think he could do just fine in the right situation – at any rate, he has all the time in the world to adjust, he won’t be seeing the field this year.
Fourth round, pick #106 overall: Bruce Ellington, WR, South Carolina
5’9’’, 197 lb.
Bruce Ellington pulled double duty at South Carolina – not only was he a productive receiver for Steve Spurrier’s Gamecock football team, he was the starting point guard for South Carolina’s basketball team. Obviously a terrific athlete, Ellington doesn’t have a ton of nuance to his game yet – understandable, considering he wasn’t able to solely focus on football in college – but he shows a lot of promise. Ellington has speed and tremendous leaping ability, elusiveness, and good hands. He has past success as a return man, and he’s a really intriguing prospect as a slot receiver. He’s raw, but very toolsy. As he commits himself full-time to football, Ellington could develop into a fine weapon – he has all the talent. First, he needs to work on his route-running ability, especially finding space underneath. Ellington lacks size and strength, and will often need the benefit of a free release.
Fourth round, pick #129 overall: Dontae Johnson, CB, NC State
6’2’’, 200 lb.
A tall cornerback from NC State, Dontae Johnson had a relatively undecorated career in college, mostly spending his time in the shadow of teammate David Amerson. Johnson is very athletic, and although raw, shows some promise as a cover corner – he has good ball skills and can stay with almost anyone. His coverage technique needs refinement – he’s too grabby at this point. He’s a relatively weak tackler and doesn’t really show a lot of physicality in his game, and while some have suggested that Johnson could move to safety in the future, I don’t think he brings enough in the run game to be viable, and I’m concerned about his short arms and small hands. I could see Johnson being an effective center fielder, but I think the 49ers’ best bet is to keep Johnson at corner, where he shows the most natural aptitude. If the 49ers are patient, I could see Johnson becoming a valuable part of their secondary.
Fifth round, pick #150 overall: Aaron Lynch, DE, South Florida
6’5’’, 249 lb.
Aaron Lynch has been a bit of a mystery man during his collegiate career. A highly-recruited defensive end from South Florida, Lynch spurned schools like Miami and Florida to head up north to Notre Dame. Lynch earned playing time as a freshman and notched 5.5 sacks in an extremely promising 2011 season, but he left the team during 2012 spring practice – deciding that he wanted to play closer to home, he transferred to South Florida and sat out the year. Lynch jumped back in there last year and performed capably, but didn’t blow the doors off… he declared for the draft anyway. Lynch is a tall, long, athletic pass rusher that has shown some promise in his collegiate career, but could have absolutely benefited from staying in another year. Lynch had some red flags that limited his draft stock, including questions about his motor, effort, desire, and fluctuating weight that he has attributed to Adderall usage. Lynch is talented but still extremely raw and inconsistent, and the 49ers will need to show a lot of patience and hopes that he responds in kind with true commitment. He’s a boom or bust type, with bust much more likely.
Fifth round, pick #170 overall: Keith Reaser, CB, Florida Atlantic
5’10’’, 189 lb.
Just as they did with Brandon Thomas back in the third round, the 49ers are taking a chance on an injured prospect. A three-year starter at Florida Atlantic, Keith Reaser will end up on the PUP list to start his rookie season after a strange series of events that began with Reaser tearing his ACL in an October game against UAB. Reaser missed the rest of the season, rehabbed, and went to the Combine – he only lifted during the event, but led all defensive backs in that category. However, an MRI on his knee taken in Indianapolis raised concern, and an appointment with the famed sports doctor Dr. James Andrews revealed that Reaser’s body was rejecting a graft from a cadaver used in his ACL surgery. Reaser was subsequently forced to undergo yet another ACL surgery, which will push his recovery back and may force him to miss the season. On the field, Reaser, despite less-than-ideal size and length, offers a very intriguing mix of strength and speed. Reaser is a talented ball-denying cover corner who can stay with absolutely anyone, and he’s a very sure tackler who shows the ability to shed blockers and come up to make plays. Despite his promising ability, Reaser is facing a really difficult recovery, and it’s questionable how his 4.3 speed will rebound after two knee surgeries in close succession. If the knee wasn’t a problem, I think Reaser would be able to find a role, but it’s all up in the air at this point.
Kenneth Acker was a three-year starter at SMU who made two all-conference second teams – his junior year in Conference USA, and his senior year in the AAC after SMU moved to the newly formed conference. I haven’t seen much of Acker, but he was very productive on the ball in college and has good size. The Niners aren’t really hurting too much for defensive backs, but Acker might have a shot to snag a spot as a special teamer/number 5 corner if he shows improved tackling, but more likely he’ll head to the practice squad.
Seventh round, pick #243 overall: Kaleb Ramsey, DT, Boston College
6’3’’, 293 lb.
Fun fact: Kaleb Ramsey sacked Colin Kaepernick once in college. That should give you a frame of reference as to just how long Ramsey was in college. Ramsey was a true freshman all the way back in 2008 (the last time the Dolphins made the playoffs – that was an awesome year), spending time at both defensive tackle and end before missing most of the 2011 and 2012 seasons with foot and calf injuries. Ramsey was able to obtain a sixth year of eligibility in 2013 and started at defensive end, but still wasn’t able to make it through unscathed – he missed a chunk of the season with a hamstring problem and another calf injury kept him out of the Combine and his Pro Day. You have to go back a while to find film of Ramsey at full strength. Watching Ramsey back in say, 2010, you see the makings of an NFL starter. Ramsey switched between tackle and end, but he’s best as a 4-3 tackle in a three- or five-technique. Ramsey combines power to hold the middle with some real athleticism and explosion. He gets off the line quickly, can rush the passer from the interior and even chase running backs down to the sidelines. Ramsey disrupts – but can he ever stay healthy? More importantly, after repeated leg injuries, can he rediscover that burst that makes him special? At his peak, Ramsey was a real ballplayer. If the 49ers are lucky, he can recapture that old form, and then he’ll be a true asset. With a late seventh round pick, you can’t ask for a whole lot more.
The 49ers reaffirmed their commitment to a power-running scheme with a relatively rare move – they drafted a fullback. Due to the presence of the excellent Bruce Miller on the roster, I’m not overly confident of Millard’s chances to make the roster, unless he can show some aptitude on special teams. Millard is coming off an ACL tear his senior year, but should be healthy to start the season. Millard shows athleticism and some ability with the ball in his hands, but his chances of sticking on offense are limited by the fact that he really isn’t that great of a blocker. Millard doesn’t block with any jolt, and usually doesn’t sustain for very long – I would actually venture to say that Carlos Hyde is a better lead blocker than Millard. The former Sooner has had success as a core special-teamer, which boosts his chances of making the roster, but I don’t see him challenging for Bruce Miller’s job anytime soon.
Seattle Seahawks
Second round, pick #45 overall: Paul Richardson, WR, Colorado
6’0’’, 175 lb.
The best has been saved for last. The Seattle Seahawks captured their first ever championship last season, and while they traded out of the first round on draft day, they traded back up in the second round to get Colorado wide receiver Paul Richardson. Richardson’s cousin Shaquille played corner at Arizona and was selected in the fifth round this year by Pittsburgh – they originally committed to UCLA together, but both were dismissed before their freshman year for theft. Richardson transferred to Colorado and, after a couple seasons limited by knee injuries, finally emerged in 2013. Richardson, now a team captain, recorded 83 catches for over 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns, receiving first team All-Pac-12 honors after the season was over. Richardson is a speed demon receiver who constantly threatens downfield, and he’s a much cannier and cunning route runner than he’s often given credit for. Unfortunately, the hands are inconsistent. Richardson can dazzle you with a terrific catch one play, and then drop one he should have had the next – part of the problem is the fact that I really don’t think he adjusts to the ball in the air as well as he should. He’s got a 38 inch vertical leap, but you don’t see him going up and getting it as much as you would expect. Lean-framed, Richardson has already had to overcome significant injury hurdles: he lost much of his 2011 season due to a torn MCL, and his entire 2012 season after tearing the ACL in the same knee. The Seahawks don’t need a ton of help, and I see Richardson as a sometimes-frustrating big play receiver who keeps the defense on guard but possesses too many limitations to make the next step.
Second round, pick #64 overall: Justin Britt, OT, Missouri
6’6’’, 325 lb.
So why can’t second-rounder Justin Britt take a stab at the Seahawks’ right tackle position this year? In 2013, the position was split between Breno Giacomini and seventh round rookie Michael Bowie – Giacomini is now a New York Jet, and Bowie didn’t exactly blow minds in his first NFL season. A three-year starter at Missouri, Justin Britt was originally projected as a Day 3 pick, anywhere from Rounds 5-7. Instead, the Seahawks snagged him in the second round. Was it a reach? Well, probably. Britt has the size, but he doesn’t really impress with his strength or agility – he’s an effective pass blocker who instead wins with length and his technical ability. Britt places his punch well and is usually able to neutralize his man if he gets his hands on him, but doesn’t really have the athletic ability to recover if he’s beaten off the jump. Britt doesn’t generally create a lot of movement in the running game either, partially due to his tendency to get off the ball a little bit late. Britt’s fundamentals are solid and he’s got an excellent frame for the position, and his ceiling is likely someone like Tyson Clabo – an effective, unexciting tackle that gets the job done but doesn’t attract a lot of credit. I could see Britt stepping in at right tackle this year, but his performance would still likely leave Seattle looking for a different solution.
Fourth round, pick #108 overall: Cassius Marsh, DE, UCLA
6’4’’, 252 lb.
Cassius Marsh comes from a football family – his father Curtis Sr. was a wide receiver who played in both the NFL and CFL, and his brother Curtis Jr. currently plies his trade as a cornerback for the Philadelphia Eagles. Marsh arrived at UCLA as a 300 pound defensive tackle, but ended up losing nearly 50 pounds and becoming a starter as a five-technique in UCLA’s 3-4. Marsh found himself in trouble after two separate on-field fights, causing him to miss three games during his college career. Despite Marsh moving down in weight, UCLA still played him inside quite often – Marsh tried his best to play the way he did when he was 300 pounds and tie up space in the middle, but he just doesn’t have the girth anymore and tends to get rooted off the ball by double teams. I’m very intrigued by what Marsh might be able to achieve strictly as an edge player, a spot he didn’t get to see a ton of in college. Marsh showed a surprising amount of strength for a player his size on the inside, and I think he’d do well holding the edge – as a pass rusher, he’s unpolished but shows some burst off the ball and a high motor. I think UCLA didn’t use Marsh’s talents right, and he’s a good candidate to stand out more in the pros than he did in college. He’s a bit of a project, but the Seahawks certainly know what they’re doing when it comes to defense. Marsh is someone to keep your eye on.
Fourth round, pick #123 overall: Kevin Norwood, WR, Alabama
6’2’’, 198 lb.
Kevin Norwood is a fourth round pick, despite never recording more than 600 receiving yards in any season at Alabama. Norwood redshirted the year when Alabama won their first national title in the Nick Saban era, and played a role on two more championship teams. Norwood is a player who I think is a little better than his stats indicate. Norwood has great hands and reacts to the ball as well as any receiver in this draft – add that to his size and athleticism and you have a player that could find a role in Seattle’s offense. Norwood doesn’t have the exceptional physical ability to be a consistent downfield target, but it seems to me that he could be a very good #3 receiver and a reliable target in the short-to-intermediate game. Norwood will most likely start out on special teams, and look for him to carve out some playing time on offense relatively soon.
Fourth round, pick #132 overall: Kevin Pierre-Louis, LB, Boston College
6’0’’, 232 lb.
A four-star recruit out of Stamford, Connecticut, Kevin Pierre-Louis was a four-year starter at Boston College who played at a consistently high level and ended up a first team All-ACC selection his senior year. Pierre-Louis saw his draft stock shoot up after a fantastic Combine performance, and that athleticism really shows up on tape – he can fly all over the field. Pierre-Louis doesn’t have great size and often has trouble getting off blocks, but he’s a sure tackler who offers intriguing potential as a blitzer and on coverage. Pierre-Louis has the tools to at least be a core special teamer, and I really think he has the speed and skill to find a spot in Seattle’s stacked linebacking corps. There aren’t many players at his position with that kind of athleticism.
Fifth round, pick #172 overall: Jimmy Staten, DT, Middle Tennessee
6’4’’, 303 lb.
A three-year starter for Middle Tennessee, Jimmy Staten was projected by many to not be an NFL Draft pick – he was sitting at his graduation in the Middle Tennessee basketball arena when he got the call telling him that the Seahawks had taken him in the fifth round. At 303 pounds, Jimmy Staten is by no means a light man, but he appears pretty lean – strength doesn’t seem to be his, well, strength, and he’s not great at consistently holding his ground, especially against double teams. Staten is pretty mobile, and I think his best fit would be as a five-technique in a 3-4 defense. He gets off the ball pretty quick and occasionally bring a disruptive presence, although he isn’t much of a factor as a pass rusher. The Seahawks don’t have a ton of depth in the middle of their defensive line, so Staten might have a shot.
In this case, I’m gonna forgo the analysis. After a four-year career where he started at both guard and tackle for the Marshall Thundering Herd, Garrett Scott fulfilled his dream of being an NFL draft pick. Sadly, his pro football dream more than likely ended there. A couple days after signing his rookie contract, Scott took a routine physical that revealed a previously-unknown heart condition – he was deemed physically unfit to play and the Seahawks promptly released him. I wish Garrett the best.
Sixth round, pick #208 overall: Eric Pinkins, SS, San Diego State
6’3’’, 220 lb.
Eric Pinkins found a spot in San Diego State’s starting lineup his junior year and really produced, and a strong Pro Day performance helped him break into the sixth round. The Seahawks love tall defensive backs, and Pinkins fits the bill – he’s also a tremendous athlete with 4.4 speed and a 39 inch vertical leap. Based on those figures alone, Pinkins looks like a prospect, but he’s underwhelming on the field. His ball skills, coverage ability and instincts leave a lot to be desired, but he shows some aptitude coming up in run support. Pinkins has the raw physical ability to make an impact on defense at some point, if the Seahawks are patient – and they’ve done one hell of a job developing defensive backs. For now, I think Pinkins has the tools to at least make a mark on special teams.
Kiero Small was a linebacker at Hartnell Community College, dabbling at fullback, before switching to offense full-time once he made his way to the University of Arkansas. In simplest terms, Kiero Small is what would happen if Gimli played football. He’s a little ball of muscle who excels as a lead blocker and as a short-yardage ballcarrier. He does just about everything you want from a fullback well. There aren’t many 5’8’’ guys in the NFL, but Small has a lot of power and always plays bigger than his size. He’s going to give Derrick Coleman a run for his money in challenging for Seattle’s fullback job, and I see him sticking somewhere.
First round, pick #6 overall: Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
6’5’’, 308 lb.
Jake Matthews is football royalty, the latest member of the Matthews dynasty to reach the NFL. His father, grandfather, uncle, brother, and two cousins all played at the highest level – in fact, his father is Hall of Famer lineman Bruce Matthews, and one of his cousins is four-time Pro Bowler Clay Matthews. Jake Matthews might have been a first round pick had he declared last year, but he elected to come back for a senior season at Texas A&M. At right tackle, Matthews formed a magnificent tandem with 2013 #2 overall pick Luke Joeckel, and Matthews shone his senior year on the left side, earning consensus All-American honors. Matthews isn’t a giant, 6’8’’ mauler – he looks like he could play guard or even center if needed – but the dude is just a natural. Matthews is a fluid, athletic lineman who succeeds at whatever he’s tasked with. He makes pass blocking look easy, locking down his man without much trouble. He’s also a very effective run blocker – he takes good angles, gets to his man quickly, can block in space and generates movement. Matthews is the total package. He comes from a football family, is noted for his hard work, character and intelligence, and he’s blessed with tons of athleticism and natural ability. Matthews will be able to start on day one, and he’s one of the safest picks in this draft.
Second round, pick #37 overall: Ra’Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
6’6’’, 310 lb.
Minnesota’s Ra’Shede Hageman overcame a tough upbringing to become a highly-recruited tight end prospect out of high school. He didn’t stick long on offense – he switched to defensive line his freshman year at Minnesota – and it turned out to be one of the best decisions the Golden Gophers ever made. Hageman didn’t earn a ton of accolades, but he flashed dominant potential in college. He’s a massive defensive tackle with some surprising agility, he has a great wingspan and shows the ability to absolutely eat up a run game. He doesn’t always consistently disrupt – his motor runs cool for stretches and he’s a very unrefined pass rusher. He plays too upright and he doesn’t always channel his power, but he has a ton of raw natural ability and playmaking instinct. Hageman will take some time, and his reputation as a “boom or bust” prospect is very much deserved, but I can’t fault the Falcons for the pick. If Ra’Shede Hageman can reach his potential, he could be a real force. More likely, I fear, he’ll be a disappointment.
Third round, pick #68 overall: Dezmen Southward, S, Wisconsin
6’0’’, 211 lb.
Dezmen Southward didn’t start playing football until his senior year of high school, but he took to it quickly. In his only year of prep football, Southward was a starter for a powerhouse St. Thomas Aquinas team in Fort Lauderdale, and ended up securing a scholarship to Wisconsin. Southward started at both safety positions in his Badger career. Southward scores a lot of points with his size, raw speed (he missed the Combine, but ran a 4.38 at his Pro Day), versatility – he played safety, but covered one on one a lot on the outside and likely will see time at both positions in the NFL – and, last but not least, he’s got great dreads. Southward has great timed speed, but it doesn’t always show up on film. When Southward has to travel a distance to get to the ballcarrier, he seems tentative and unwilling to go in there full speed to make the play. He’s not a bad tackler regardless, but he doesn’t hit with much emphasis and isn’t a huge help in the run game. Southward was a marginal producer in college, and I actually like him better at slot corner. He shows some intriguing natural ball skills, he’s got the athleticism, and he appears a lot more confident in a more confined space. Southward has the physical ability, but he’s a sixth-round talent who went in the third round.
Fourth round, pick #103 overall: Devonta Freeman, RB, Florida State
5’8’’, 206 lb.
The Falcons had one of the least productive rushing attacks in the league last year. New acquisition Steven Jackson battled injuries for much of the year, forcing many carries the way of the diminutive Jacquizz Rodgers and the now-retired Jason Snelling – the Falcons had a poor line as well, and nothing really worked. Maybe Florida State’s Devonta Freeman can help. Despite his 5’8’’ stature and the presence of James Wilder Jr. in the Seminole backfield, Freeman was still able to top 1,000 yards and earn first team All-ACC honors last year. Freeman’s a tough little guy who isn’t afraid to go between the tackles into the teeth of the defense, and he shows agility and creativity in the open field despite a lack of top speed. He’s a decisive, one-cut runner with real ability as a receiver. He also doesn’t have much tread on the tires. The wriggly Freeman looks like he has the tools to make the Falcons look great with this pick – how’s the 5’8’’ Freeman and the 5’6’’ Rodgers for a backfield?
Fourth round, pick #139 overall: Prince Shembo, LB, Notre Dame
6’1’’, 253 lb.
The son of Congolese immigrants, Prince Shembo was a three year starter at outside linebacker for Notre Dame and an integral part of the Fighting Irish defense that carried the squad to the national championship game a couple years ago. As a 3-4 outside linebacker, Shembo’s height leaves something to be desired, but he shows discipline and stoutness on the edge against the run. Shembo’s pass rushing skills are still rudimentary, and I don’t think he has the ideal dimensions or burst to be effective in that arena, but he’s a strong tackler that can hold the edge and should fit well in the Atlanta 3-4. He may see time on special teams, and look for him to contribute on running downs in the near future.
At a Purdue program consistently in the Big Ten cellar, Ricardo Allen established himself as a playmaker – 13 interceptions, second-highest in school history, with four returned for touchdowns. Allen shows some potential if he can work on the mental side of his game. He’s athletic and scrappy, and I like his attitude – despite his skinny frame, he sells out and tries to hit as hard as he can. Those 13 interceptions weren’t accidents, either, as he shows a quick change of direction and strong ball skills. However, he’s too often caught peeking in the backfield and can get undressed by stronger route runners, issues he’ll need to correct as soon as possible. If he can both fix these mental errors and bulk up some, I feel confident that Allen can be a solid contributor on defense.
An inside linebacker at Syracuse, Marquis Spruill was projected by some to be a late seventh round pick or undrafted free agent – instead, the Falcons traded up to get him in the fifth round. Spruill’s main limitations involve his lack of bulk, short arms and small hands, and if he had the body of C.J. Mosley, he’d be a surefire NFL starter. Spruill plays with intensity and a high motor, he’s got good range, and he’s a sure tackler. I love watching him, but he’s going to have a hell of a time winning battles in the NFL. Spruill’s functional strength is already marginal, and he’s too often pushed around – a problem that will likely get worse against NFL competition. I do think that Spruill could find a role as an ace special teamer, and that carries value in and of itself. Further than that, I can’t say.
Yawin Smallwood was an option quarterback who turned into a three-year starting middle linebacker at UConn, recording over 300 tackles in his college career. The Falcons would like Smallwood, projected as a 4th-5th round selection, to be a contributor in their rotation down the line, but I don’t see it. Smallwood is slow-footed with weak lateral agility, and he doesn’t hit with any thump. He was very productive in college, but he shows minimal disruptive playmaking ability and I don’t think he has either the athleticism or the above-average skill to make much of a mark in the NFL.
Seventh round, pick #255 overall: Tyler Starr, LB, South Dakota
6’4’’, 250 lb.
A native of Little Rock, Iowa (population 459), Tyler Starr ended up at the University of South Dakota, starting at defensive end before moving to edge linebacker and winning the Missouri Valley Conference Defensive Player of the Year award last year. Starr was a productive pass rusher for the Coyotes, (the Coyotes? Are there even coyotes in South Dakota? That seems like more of an Arizona thing) and he helped put himself on the map with a strong performance in the East-West Shrine Game. From what I saw, Starr has a high motor and looks pretty athletic, but he’s pretty raw and will have to prove that he can put up with a massive change in competition. He’s a project, and look for him to spend some time on Atlanta’s practice squad.
Carolina Panthers
First round, pick #28 overall: Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State
6’5’’, 240 lb.
No matter what happens in his NFL career, Kelvin Benjamin will always be remembered for his touchdown that won a national championship for Florida State last year. Benjamin contributed as a redshirt freshman in 2012, and broke into the starting lineup last year, recording over 1,000 yards – now, he’s a first round draft pick. With longtime star receiver Steve Smith gone, the door is open for Benjamin to make an impact immediately if he can. Benjamin has terrific size – how often do you see a 240-pound receiver? – and long arms that give him a great catch radius. At this point, however, Benjamin’s a raw, developmental receiver. His hands are very inconsistent, and his route running very crude – coupled with his average speed, this is going to be an issue. Benjamin physically reminds me of Alshon Jeffery, but Jeffery’s route running was much further along then Benjamin’s when he was drafted. Benjamin was only a redshirt sophomore, but he’s already 23, and he needs to develop his receiver skills a ton. Benjamin has the potential to be a physically dominant downfield threat, but he doesn’t yet have the exceptional ability required – the Panthers may have whiffed on this one.
Second round, pick #60 overall: Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri
6’4’’, 273 lb.
In Missouri’s 4-3 defense, Kony Ealy formed a productive pass-rushing tandem with SEC Co-Defensive Player of the Year Michael Sam. The 2013 Missouri squad was one of the program’s most successful in years, and Ealy was a big reason why: he recorded 9.5 sacks and received first team All-SEC honors. Ealy is a pure pass rusher who thrives off natural burst and speed to get around tackles. Outside of the speed rush, Ealy leaves a lot to be desired. His strength is subpar, and he’s eaten up when tackles get their hands on him; his pass rush moves and hand use are very unrefined; he isn’t much of a factor in the run game, and he has a tough time setting the edge; and his motor is uninspiring. Ealy’s got great size, long arms and good mobility and burst, but the strength issue is troubling – how much more bulk could his frame support at 6’4’’, 273 lb.? I don’t like Ealy as a starter right now – he doesn’t play with leverage and he’s too upright - but on passing downs he could make an impact if he refines his technique.
Third round, pick #92 overall: Trai Turner, G, LSU
6’3’’, 310 lb.
Trai Turner thrived in LSU’s power running scheme, and while he only started for a season and a half, he has accrued some hard-earned experience locking horns with NFL-caliber defensive linemen in the SEC. Turner was a big reason why Jeremy Hill ran wild in 2013 – he’s strong in the run game, constantly generating movement. Turner’s well-built and has long arms, and while he’s technically raw, he shows starter potential. Turner shows surprising athleticism and performed extremely well at the combine, and although he doesn’t play light on his feet he still doesn’t suffer in pass blocking. Turner may start immediately, and he could end up being a big plus for the Panthers.
Fourth round, pick #128 overall: Tre Boston, S, North Carolina
6’0’’, 204 lb.
A converted cornerback, Tre Boston was a major producer in college at North Carolina, and earned second team All-ACC honors last year. Boston has played both free safety and strong safety, and I like him better at the latter position. Boston has some upside – he showed playmaking ability at North Carolina, he’s got good size and athleticism, and I like his ability to get into the box and make tackles in run support. Boston can struggle with the ball in the air, however, and he generally takes a lot of questionable angles. I like Boston more as a box safety if he can add a little more bulk and improve his tackling form, and he could surprise and become a solid contributor soon.
Fifth round, pick #148 overall: Bene Benwikere, CB, San Jose State
5’11’’, 195 lb.
Bene Benwikere didn’t start a full season until 2013 for a San Jose State program that didn’t find consistent success until his last couple years. Benwikere, above all else, is a ballhawk – 12 interceptions his last two seasons, and he shows quickness and smarts in coverage. Benwikere could end up being a steal as a nickel corner – he’s built to play underneath against smaller receivers, owing to his lack of strength and struggles in press coverage. Benwikere is quick to react and can make some plays, and look for him to see some time on special teams as well.
Tyler Gaffney spent two years as Stepfan Taylor’s backup at Stanford, but he also moonlighted as a baseball player – he was a three year starting outfielder for the Stanford baseball team, hitting .301 in his career. After being drafted in the 24th round by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2012, he left to play pro ball in the Class-A New York-Penn League. While he hit .297 that summer, Gaffney decided to return to Stanford for his senior year of football, and rushed for over 1,700 yards. Gaffney succeeded in minor league baseball, and he has the tools to succeed in the NFL. Gaffney is a big, tough, athletic running back who’s reliable as both a receiver and a blocker. Gaffney runs hard and he runs between the tackles, and he’s not easy to bring down. The Panthers have made a couple picks that seem geared toward a power running offense: Trai Turner and Gaffney, and I like both players. Gaffney will have to fight for carries at first, but I think he’s going to end up a productive back.
New Orleans Saints
First round, pick #20 overall: Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State
5’10’’, 189 lb.
Originally a UCLA commit, Brandin Cooks changed his mind and went to Oregon State, ending up as perhaps the best receiver in school history. After playing second-fiddle to current Pittsburgh Steeler Markus Wheaton his sophomore year, Cooks exploded once given the spotlight in 2013 – 1,730 yards, the most in Division I, 16 touchdowns, and the Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s top receiver. Cooks is all about speed – his 4.33 was the fastest among all wide receivers at the 2014 draft – and he’s garnered early Rookie of the Year attention due to his fit with Drew Brees and the Saints offense. Cooks is a slot receiver with the ability to turn short passes into big gains, turning heads with his speed and shiftiness in the open field. Cooks finds space well and has very reliable hands, and he’s one of the players in this draft that can immediately contribute at a high level, especially with a quarterback like Drew Brees throwing him the ball. Speedy and skilled, Cooks will be a nightmare for opposing defenses.
Second round, pick #58 overall: Stanley Jean-Baptiste, CB, Nebraska
6’3’’, 218 lb.
It’s often said that the NFL is a copycat league – in 2014, tall cornerbacks are the hot thing, and guys like Nebraska’s Stanley Jean-Baptiste have become big time commodities. Jean-Baptiste is a converted receiver that started playing cornerback for the Huskers in 2011, and while he didn’t start until his senior year, he made that 2013 season a good one. Jean-Baptiste recorded four interceptions and earned second team All-Big Ten honors, and now he’s being compared to the likes of Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner. Jean-Baptiste is certainly tall, and he’s got fantastic leaping ability – a 41.5 inch vertical measured at the combine – he’s physical, and he shows some really intriguing potential. Jean-Baptiste lacks top-level speed and agility, but he’s got the size and natural ball skill to compensate as he gets more experience and improves at making reads. Down the line, Jean-Baptiste could definitely end up a Browner type, but he’s somewhat of a project for now – he’s very raw and he struggles with quicker receivers.
Fourth round, pick #126 overall: Khairi Fortt, LB, California
6’2’’, 248 lb.
Khairi Fortt, a Stamford, Connecticut native, originally went to Penn State but transferred to Cal after the Joe Paterno/Jerry Sandusky scandal hit and players were given free leave to transfer. Fortt’s career, especially at Cal, was marred by injury – he was forced to medically redshirt in 2012 after a recurrence of knee problems stemming from a high school injury, and he missed the last quarter of the 2013 season after hurting his bicep. Fortt is a well-built inside linebacker, and he’s got all the ability. He’s strong, sheds blocks, covers ground in a hurry and makes tackles, and he’s also very able in coverage. However, he struggles making decisive and correct reads, which really cuts into his effectiveness. Durability is also an issue, as he’s suffered repeated injuries over the last couple years and even hurt his hamstring during the Combine. On athleticism and pure skill alone, Fortt would be a starter, and if he can learn to be more decisive he could be an impact player.
You might remember Vinnie Sunseri’s big brother Tino, the former starting quarterback for Pittsburgh and a current member of the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Tino likely won’t ever sniff the NFL, but the same can’t be said for Vinnie. The younger Sunseri contributed from day one at Alabama, and he was part of two national championship teams. Sunseri played linebacker in high school and even played corner for a time in his sophomore year with the Tide, before starting seven games at safety in 2013 – before a torn ACL against Arkansas ended his season. Sunseri isn’t a great athlete and he struggles in man coverage, but he’s smart and physical, a good downhill safety who can step into run defense and contribute readily in zone. Sunseri has short arms and tends to take weak angles, and he lacks strength – he isn’t sound enough all around to be a starter, but he could definitely be a plus as a backup safety and special teamer.
Fifth round, pick #169 overall: Ronald Powell, LB, Florida
6’3’’, 237 lb.
Ronald Powell was a decorated high school prospect – some had him as the #1 high school player overall in 2010, and he chose Florida. Powell flashed the athleticism and ability that made him such a recruiting coup, but his progress was slowed by a constant onslaught of injuries. Powell’s 2012 season was a total loss after he tore his left ACL twice, he battled a hamstring injury throughout last year, and he strained his hamstring again running the 40 at the Combine. Powell played a hybrid defensive end/outside linebacker position in Will Muschamp’s defense, and due to his lean frame, I’d like to see him as an edge rushing linebacker in a 3-4 scheme. Powell has short arms and can get locked up, but when he gets off the ball quickly he has the natural burst, agility and closing speed to get to the quarterback. Powell’s still a project, but he looks the part, and all that talent didn’t just disappear. He doesn’t have the strength or the bulk to actively contribute in run defense, but if he puts the work in and he develops his crude pass-rushing skills, he could be a factor on passing downs in the future.
Sixth round, pick #202 overall: Tavon Rooks, OT, Kansas State
6’5’’, 299 lb.
The Saints went off the board in the sixth round, selecting a tackle in Tavon Rooks who, it was predicted, would not be drafted. Rooks, a junior college transfer, started two seasons at right tackle across from Luke Lucas. Rooks is a very raw prospect with long arms who could really use to hit the hell out of the weight room. He’s got a very nice frame for the position, and he shows some natural aptitude in both run and pass blocking – you may see him move to guard and back up Ben Grubbs and Jahri Evans. A developmental pick.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
First round, pick #7 overall: Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M
6’5’’, 231 lb.
Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel was the main attraction for the Texas A&M Aggies the last two years, but often, it was another offensive player that caught the eye: Mike Evans, his top receiver, a 6’5’’ android who seemed to catch absolutely everything thrown his way. Basketball was Evans’ first love – he averaged 18 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists as a senior in high school and was recruited by Division I programs – but after just one season of football, he committed to play wide receiver at Texas A&M. Evans, a draft declaree after his redshirt sophomore season, recorded over 1,000 yards in each of his seasons in the SEC, earning consensus All-American honors in 2013. Texas A&M’s epic showdown against Alabama was Evans’ star-making performance, as he racked up 279 receiving yards against first-rounder Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and the Crimson Tide secondary. Evans doesn’t have great speed and his route-running, understandably, is undeveloped, but he shocks you sometimes with the plays he makes. Evans has the ability to physically dominate at times, and he’s a freakish jump ball performer. Evans is an uncommonly big and strong receiver with fantastic leaping ability, and he does a fantastic job at reacting and adjusting to the ball in the air. Adding that to his excellent hands, and Evans is an unstoppable force. The learning curve may be somewhat steep – Evans, already inexperienced, thrived in Manziel’s fly-by-the-seat-of-your-pants offense in College Station, and with pocket-bound quarterback Mike Glennon throwing the ball for the Buccaneers, he’s likely never to see its like again. Still, Evans is a rare talent, and he should be a deadly downfield threat and red zone target in the NFL. Along with three-time Pro Bowler Vincent Jackson, Evans will form one of the most dangerous receiver tandems in football.
Second round, pick #38 overall; Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Washington
6’5’’, 262 lb.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins was pretty dominant himself in college. Seferian-Jenkins was the #2 tight end recruit in the nation coming out of high school, and he lived up to the billing – a three-year starter (he declared for the draft after his junior season), Seferian-Jenkins was the most productive tight end in Washington history, recording 21 receiving touchdowns in his career and winning the Mackey Award for best tight end after the 2013 season. Seferian-Jenkins has all the tools – he’s big, strong, athletic, and skilled. He’s a good red zone target with reliable hands, and he has the speed to work the seam and threaten downfield. Seferian-Jenkins is still developing as a blocker, but he does well out in space, and if he continues to build strength he could be effective on the line of scrimmage as well. The Buccaneers have doubled up on tall, athletic red zone threats with the first two picks of their draft – while Seferian-Jenkins doesn’t quite have the superstar potential of Mike Evans, he has what it takes to be a very good all-around starter for Tampa Bay for years to come.
Third round, pick #69 overall: Charles Sims, RB, West Virginia
6’0’’, 214 lb.
The University of Houston is known for high-octane, pass-first offenses, but running back Charles Sims became a star in the Cougars system before spending his senior year at West Virginia. Sims honed his receiving skills under Kevin Sumlin and Tony Levine at Houston, and by the time he arrived in Morgantown he was a very effective two-way threat – by the time his college career drew to a close, he had recorded almost 3,500 rushing yards and over 2,100 receiving yards. Speedy and athletic, Sims is a one-cut runner who’s shifty in traffic and can break off big plays from time to time. He’s also, undoubtedly, one of the best receiving backs in this year’s draft. I don’t see Sims being more than a complementary back, but he could very productive in a role that effectively utilizes his two-way skill, backing up the pint-sized beast that is Doug Martin.
Fifth round, pick #143 overall: Kadeem Edwards, G, Tennessee State
6’4’’, 313 lb.
Despite a relatively nondescript career at FCS Tennessee State, Kadeem Edwards is a fifth round pick – but don’t get your hopes up that he’ll make an immediate impact. Edwards is an extremely raw prospect who needs to make significant strides with his technique, but he’s the raw template of a starting guard: good height, a strong build, and very long arms. Against FCS competition, Edwards was often able to generate movement, but he didn’t consistently dominate. He seems to have some surprising athleticism, and with NFL coaching he could become something – however, it’s been a while since Tampa Bay was able to develop a really good interior lineman. We’ll see.
Fifth round, pick #149 overall: Kevin Pamphile, OT, Purdue
6’5’’, 310 lb.
Kevin Pamphile is another raw project, a tackle who only played one year of high school football and entered the Purdue program as a defensive tackle. Pamphile needs a lot of coaching on his technique, and while he’s well-built, he doesn’t play with much power. What he does have, however, is very surprising speed and mobility for an offensive tackle. He’s 6’5’’, but I’d like to see Pamphile tried at guard, where he might end up being a serviceable part of a zone blocking scheme. He’s got long arms and he’s an excellent raw athlete, and he seems to have good balance and leverage – like Edwards, he might be a couple years away, but he’s got intriguing potential.
Sixth round, pick #185 overall: Robert Herron, WR, Wyoming
5’9’’, 193 lb.
A Los Angeles native, Robert Herron ended up at the University of Wyoming and will now get a chance to crack the Buccaneer receiving corps. Herron split time between receiver and running back for his first couple years at Wyoming, and once he switched to receiver full-time he was a productive receiver. Herron at times shows great speed and he’s a quick and shifty runner with the ball, but he has an injury history – while he projects best as a slot receiver, I didn’t see him go over the middle much, and whether that’s a question of toughness or simply Wyoming’s playcalling, I can’t say. Herron does flash some real playmaking ability, especially downfield using his straight-line speed, and I could see him as a return man as well. If he can stay healthy and prove he can handle NFL hits, he might end up being a nice piece from the sixth round.
First round, pick #14 overall: Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
6’0’’, 190 lb.
Kyle Fuller will become the third Fuller brother to play in the NFL when he first suits up for the Bears – all three played at Virginia Tech. Vincent, the oldest, played seven years for the Titans, Lions and Patriots, and Corey, a year older than Kyle, was a star Hokie wide receiver who currently plays for the Lions. In this case, the youngest turned out to be the best. A finesse corner who lacks elite speed, Fuller makes up for it with terrific awareness and ability to read plays – he usually seems to know exactly what the receiver is doing, and is able to adjust accordingly. Fuller prefers to play off his man, and he’s able to react to the ball very quickly. Fuller has terrific leaping ability, but he can be beaten downfield by pure speed – he also needs to build some strength. While Fuller’s coverage skills are very good, he isn’t suited for press coverage and allows a free release too much, something that will come back to bite him in the NFL. However, despite that lack of strength, he’s a tough and willing tackler who has special teams experience. With some physical development, Kyle Fuller will be a fine starting corner in the NFL. For now, he’ll most likely see time as a nickel corner, with some added playing time on special teams.
Second round, pick #51 overall: Ego Ferguson, DT, LSU
6’3’’, 315 lb.
A defensive end in high school, Ego Ferguson added size at LSU and moved to the middle, serving as the backup for current Philadelphia Eagle Bennie Logan for two years. After a solid junior year, his first as a starter, Ferguson declared for the draft – time will tell if it was the right move, but I don’t think so at this point. Ferguson has good size and is very mobile and athletic, but for a defensive tackle he lacks strength and he struggles against higher quality linemen. Ferguson can usually hold his ground against single blocks, but he rarely catches the eye – he’s not a playmaker in against either the run or the pass (he only recorded 5 tackles for loss and 1 sack in his college career) and he’s washed out by double teams. Against Mississippi State’s Gabe Jackson, who I see as one of the best guards in this year’s class, he was dominated. Ferguson has natural athletic ability, but if he can’t at least add some strength, he won’t make much of an impact in the NFL.
Third round, pick #82 overall: Will Sutton, DT, Arizona State
6’0’’, 303 lb.
With Ego Ferguson, the Bears drafted a big defensive tackle who doesn’t make many plays – with Will Sutton, the Bears have drafted the complete opposite. Despite less than ideal size, Sutton was a terror for the Arizona State Sun Devils, a two-time Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year whose 13 sack performance in 2012 was an incredible total for a defensive tackle. He must have gotten it from his mother – his father, Mickey Sutton, was a 5’8’’ cornerback who played five years in the NFL in the late 80s. Sutton bulked up a bit his senior year, which negated some of his natural mobility and helped cut into his statistics. If he stays in the 280-290 range, he can do a lot of damage. In the run game, Sutton is strong enough to hold his ground against single blockers, but he lacks the power and bulk to occupy the middle against a double team and is most ideally suited as a three-technique in a 4-3 defense. Sutton has terrific quickness, agility and disruptive ability for his position – he’s an impactful pass rusher who’s also an effective playmaker against running backs in space. However, last year, the added bulk sapped some of his mobility and Sutton played with more of a power-oriented style, much to his detriment. The big question with Sutton is whether he’ll be able to keep his weight down and return to the form he showed in 2012 – if he stays over 300 pounds, the Bears will have gone 0-for-2 on defensive tackles.
With the fourth round pick of Ka’Deem Carey, the Bears managed to secure the Pac-12 Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year for 2013. A two-time consensus All-American, Carey was a dominant force at Arizona – if you combined his 2012 and 2013 seasons, it would total up to over 3,800 rushing yards. Carey might have passed 2,000 yards last year if he hadn’t been suspended for the season opener after being involved in a fight at an Arizona basketball game in January 2013, and while there are some legitimate character concerns, what I’m concerned with is what I see on tape. Carey isn’t a physical specimen by any stretch. Undersized with average athleticism, Carey managed to rack up rushing yards due to his competitiveness, instincts and vision. Carey’s a bull in a china shop, never going down on the first hit, always keeping his legs churning and scratching out extra yards. Still, I’m dubious about what effect he could have in the NFL. Carey has already absorbed a very high workload in his three seasons in college, and even if he ends up being productive in the NFL, he isn’t built to last. Vereen lacks top-level athleticism and speed, and while he pushed defenders back in college, he doesn’t run with a lot of power. He’s a hard runner, but 5’9’’, 207 lb. isn’t going to push the pile a lot in the NFL. Add that to character issues that have gotten in his way in the past, and you have a running back who, despite terrific college production, I doubt will be a threat on the next level.
Like his new teammate Kyle Fuller, Brock Vereen has football bloodlines. His father Henry played briefly for the CFL’s BC Lions, and his brother Shane is going into his fourth year as a running back with the New England Patriots. Vereen started alternately at cornerback and safety during his college career at Minnesota – he was a first team All-Big Ten selection his senior year, starting six games at safety and seven at corner. Vereen’s a terrific, fluid athlete at free safety, with a high motor, good awareness and instincts and well-developed cover skills. He’s got nice range and can get from sideline to sideline, but his playmaking production left something to be desired in college and he has less-than-ideal physical dimensions: short arms, small hands and a skinny build. Vereen is a good last line of defense deep, but closer to the line of scrimmage (and against bigger wide receivers and tight ends) he isn’t quite so effective. Still, he carries starter potential – like so many prospects out of college every year, he needs to hit the weight room and improve his tackling.
Sixth round, pick #183 overall: David Fales, QB, San Jose State
6’2’’, 212 lb.
David Fales began his collegiate career at the University of Nevada… but they had a guy named Colin Kaepernick. So much for Nevada. Fales spent two years at a junior college and transferred to noted powerhouse San Jose State, immediately seizing the starting job and leading the Spartans to one of the program’s greatest seasons ever in 2012. Fales had the highest completion percentage in Division I that season, and while he regressed somewhat the next year, he still surpassed 4,000 yards. In a relatively weak quarterback class, Fales is a real sleeper – I’m naturally skeptical, and even biased against, spread QBs, but I think David Fales has a real future in the NFL. Fales shows sparkling accuracy and touch in the short to intermediate passing game, and while he doesn’t have a cannon arm, he can make downfield throws. Fales also displays a good pocket sense and some nice mobility. He also has a reputation as a tireless worker and student of the game – I think Fales has the skillset to be a good starting quarterback in the NFL, and he has zero pressure on him, going to a team where he’ll be allowed to sit and learn as a backup for a while. QB guru Marc Trestman is the perfect guy to help Fales overcome some of his problems, like how he stares down his receivers too long, and when he’s ready to play, a more finely-polished David Fales could get the job done. Don’t sleep on David Fales.
Sixth round, pick #191 overall: Pat O’Donnell, P, Miami
6’4’’, 220 lb.
A punter! This is the first punter I’ve reviewed during this series. O’Donnell was a stud punter for the Cincinnati Bearcats for three years before moving to Miami for his senior year. O’Donnell broke out with the Hurricanes, notching 47 yards per punt and earning All-America votes. O’Donnell has the Bears punting job straight away, and he’s certainly got a hell of a leg – he’s also quite the athlete for his position. O’Donnell ran a 4.6 40 and had a vertical leap of over 30 inches, and he even outlifted some defensive linemen. While that’s completely irrelevant, it’s still cool. Come on, he’s a punter, there’s not much more to talk about.
Seventh round, pick #246 overall: Charles Leno Jr., OT, Boise State
6’4’’, 303 lb.
Charles Leno Jr. was a three year starter at Boise State – a right tackle his sophomore year, and then two more seasons on the left side. In the pros, he seems set to move to guard. Leno is a very raw player, but he’s physically talented – he also has really long arms, so that’s a bonus. Leno’s usually in the right spots, but he needs to consistently channel his natural power. Leno’s a project, but if the Bears are committed enough, they could be able to turn him into a player.
Detroit Lions
First round, pick #10 overall: Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina
6’4’’, 250 lb.
The Lions are well-known for their pass-heavy offense, featuring quarterback Matthew Stafford repeatedly chucking the ball to the freak of nature known as Calvin Johnson. The Lions also feature a nice tight end tandem - Brandon Pettigrew has been steady and competent for several years now, and rookie tight end Joseph Fauria established himself as a dynamic red zone target last year. Despite tight end not being a position of real weakness, the Lions used their first round pick on the best tight end in the draft, North Carolina’s Eric Ebron. With a 973 yard 2013 campaign, Ebron broke the ACC tight end receiving yards record for a single season, a mark previously held by Vernon Davis, a player he is often compared to. Ebron is not only big, but he’s tremendously athletic for a tight end, able to play on the outside lined up as a receiver. He’s also a tremendous route runner able to threaten down the field and work the seam as well as any pass catcher around. He steps a bit heavy, but he cuts on a dime – he’s also got very nice hands, with the exception of some bad concentration drops that I hope don’t become a trend. This combination of size, athleticism and skill is rarely found at the position of tight end. He’s not a particularly stout blocker, but I’m sure Detroit will accept the tradeoff. The NFL has become a tight end league, and Ebron is the type of dynamic tight end we’re seeing more and more of: more than a security blanket, more than a checkdown option, a truly dangerous playmaker who can shred defenses downfield. Ebron has the toolset to make an impact immediately, and could be Stafford’s second-best option.
Second round, pick #40 overall: Kyle Van Noy, LB, BYU
6’3’’, 243 lb.
Kyle Van Noy started three years at weakside outside linebacker for the Brigham Young Cougars, racking up the accolades in a sparkling collegiate career – one that started with him sitting out the whole 2009 season after an honor code violation involving alcohol. Once he was able to get on the field, Van Noy immediately established himself as a playmaking defensive force. Van Noy notched 62 tackles for loss, 26 sacks (13 in 2012), 17 forced fumbles and 7 interceptions during his career, and it seemed like every game he played he did something that turned your head. Not blessed with exceptional athleticism, the rangy linebacker still always seems to be around the ball, diagnosing plays and reacting very well. Van Noy is an effective, yet raw, pass rusher mostly because of his ability to get off the ball extremely quickly. He still doesn’t have desirable stoutness in the run game – hopefully he can build some strength in the future – and he’s not the best tackler, but Kyle Van Noy has the things you can’t teach. He’s smart, he’s a natural playmaker, and he plays hard. Van Noy has the potential to be a good NFL linebacker, and he looks penciled in to start right away in Detroit’s 4-3 system opposite the terrific DeAndre Levy.
Third round, pick #76 overall: Travis Swanson, C, Arkansas
6’5’’, 312 lb.
With elder statesman Dominic Raiola entering his 13th year as Detroit’s starting center, it’s probably time to start planning for the future. The Lions think their future at the pivot is former Arkansas Razorback Travis Swanson, a big and battle-tested lineman with four years of starting experience in the SEC. Swanson is a solid anchor in pass protection, thanks to his ability to react quickly to blitzers and outmaneuver his opponents despite a lack of athleticism. He really lacks strength, however, and he’s too ineffective in the run game – he doesn’t generate much push and he has a bad tendency to slip off his blocks. I’ve seen Swanson described as a good fit for a zone blocking scheme, but I don’t think he has the athleticism or balance to succeed there, and he doesn’t have the natural power and strength to battle with bigger defensive linemen. Starting him will be a big stretch.
Fourth round, pick #133 overall: Nevin Lawson, CB, Utah State
5’9’’, 190 lb.
Born in Jamaica, Nevin Lawson moved to Florida as a kid and then somehow ended up at Utah State, where he became a three-year starter and a first team All-Mountain West selection as a senior. I would have liked to see the Lions, lacking in cornerback depth, make their first selection at this position a little higher up, and Lawson is expected to have to contribute right away. Lawson makes up for a lack of size with physicality, good positioning and a feisty temperament. Lawson is built to be a slot corner, as his lack of elite speed and height keeps him from being able to consistently defend bigger and faster receivers downfield. An aggressive hitter, I think Lawson will be able to hold his own in extra-DB packages as a rookie, as well as playing on special teams.
Fourth round, pick #136 overall: Larry Webster III, DE, Bloomsburg
6’6’’, 252 lb.
The son of Larry Webster Jr., a defensive lineman who played 11 years in the NFL and won a Super Bowl ring with the Baltimore Ravens, Larry Webster III was originally a basketball player. Webster is the all-time leading shot-blocker at Division II Bloomsburg, and after moving to football in his junior year he made an immediate impact, with 26 sacks in his two seasons on the gridiron. Webster is a raw, inexperienced, but promising speed rusher with oodles of athleticism and natural talent. It speaks to his athleticism that some people think that Webster would be a better fit as a tight end, a position he’s barely played, compared to the likes of Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron. Webster posted similar combine results to Jadeveon Clowney. He’s a pure developmental pick – he lacks NFL-caliber strength at this point and his fundamentals need a ton of work, but if he gets good coaching he could really turn into something.
The selection of Caraun Reid marks the second year in a row a Princeton defensive lineman has been drafted, after Mike Catapano went to Kansas City in the 2013 seventh round. The Ivy League isn’t exactly known for its scintillating football competition, but to his credit, Caraun Reid did dominate at times. As a 3-4 nose tackle, Reid managed to rack up almost 20 sacks in his college career, and he was three times a first team All-Ivy League selection. I think Reid is a better fit as a three technique in a 4-3 defense, a role he’ll be able to play in Detroit. Reid doesn’t have the raw power to consistently hold the middle against double teams, but he makes a lot of plays – he’s mobile, he’s very active with a high motor, and he’s an effective pass rusher from the interior. Reid’s eyes and instincts aren’t the best, but he flashes disruptive potential, and he could develop into a valuable and effective rotational lineman in a 4-3 front. He had rare production in the backfield for a nose tackle, and it wasn’t an accident.
Sixth round, pick #189 overall: T.J. Jones, WR, Notre Dame
6’0’’, 188 lb.
So far in the NFC North, we’ve seen a lot of players with football bloodlines, and Notre Dame’s T.J. Jones is no different. Jones’ father, Andre Jones, was a starting defensive end on Notre Dame’s 1988 national championship team, and his uncle Phillip Daniels, also a defensive end, spent 15 years in the NFL for the Seahawks, Bears and Redskins. Naturally, T.J. Jones ended up as a wide receiver. Jones started for most of his Notre Dame career but really broke out his senior year, recording over 1,100 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. Jones lacks the size or elite speed to be a functional downfield option, but could find a role as a slot receiver in the NFL. Jones is a polished and smart route runner with excellent hands and some elusiveness after the catch. He’s also got some return experience, and he’s continued to improve every year. As they say, his arrow is pointing up. The Lions should be glad that Jones slipped to the sixth round – he managed to be productive catching passes from the likes of Everett Golson and Tommy Rees, playing with Matthew Stafford should be a breeze. Jones could be a real factor in the Lions offense down the line, using his very well-developed skill to be a threat underneath.
Seventh round, pick #229 overall: Nate Freese, K, Boston College
5’11’’, 192 lb.
Jason Hanson served capably as Detroit’s kicker for an incredible 21 seasons – when he finally retired, the Lions replaced an old dude with an only slightly less old dude, David Akers. It was time to get a kicker that was actually born in the 20th century. Can Boston College’s Nate Freese fit the bill? On paper, it looks good. Freese was terrifically accurate in college, outside of a tough sophomore season – he was 22-25 his freshman year, 18-20 his junior year, and a perfect 20-20 his senior year. He was also 3-4 career beyond 50 yards, and he even punted rather capably his senior year. He has the stats to back it up, so why not give Nate Freese a shot? He can’t be worse than David Akers.
Green Bay Packers
First round, pick #21 overall: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama
6’1’’, 208 lb.
After another early playoff exit in 2013, the Green Bay Packers faced a few issues – chief among them was a secondary filled with marginal talents. Enter Ha’Sean “Ha Ha” Clinton-Dix, owner of the best name in college football and a consensus All-American for a powerhouse Alabama team. Clinton-Dix proved himself more than just some guy with a funny name in Tuscaloosa, becoming legitimately one of the best safeties in the nation – and, along with Calvin Pryor, Jimmie Ward and Deone Bucannon, one of four safeties to go off the board in the 2014 first round. Clinton-Dix seems like a pretty safe pick – a jack of all trades and master of none, Clinton-Dix is solid and reliable, and while he doesn’t have the highest ceiling, he should be a solid starter from day one. Clinton-Dix doesn’t have one particular phase that he truly excels at, but he’s good all around. A big, fluid athlete, Clinton-Dix is a good coverage safety and a sure tackler with reliable hands and playmaking instincts. Clinton-Dix is comfortable playing center field, and he also has special teams experience. He’s a good safety that’s just a little bit shy of being a really good safety. If he were a half-step faster, a tad hungrier, or a little bit more of a ballhawk, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix would be a Pro Bowler. He just isn’t quite at that level.
Second round, pick #53 overall: Davante Adams, WR, Fresno State
6’1’’, 212 lb.
With a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers, one can never have too many targets – but with Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and James Jones gone from Green Bay’s receiving corps of a couple years ago, the Packers felt a little restocking was in order. Davante Adams is the first of three wide receivers shipping up to Wisconsin after the 2014 Draft, beginning a new chapter of his career after a magnificently productive career at Fresno State. Derek Carr’s first option in a prolific aerial offense, Adams recorded over 3,000 yards as a collegian before declaring for the draft after his redshirt sophomore season. Adams doesn’t have great top-end speed, but made up for it with great leaping ability and sure hands. Adams got a lot of lateral passes in Fresno State’s offense, but he shows flashes of nice route-running ability downfield. Aaron Rodgers will surely miss James Jones, but Adams reminds me a lot of him and will likely fill that possession receiver role down the line. He’s very comfortable in the short to intermediate game and will be able to contribute there. Like Clinton-Dix, he doesn’t really move the needle, but he should be an asset to the Packers right away.
Third round, pick #85 overall: Khyri Thornton, DT, Southern Miss
6’3’’, 304 lb.
A defensive tackle at Southern Miss, Khyri Thornton looks ticketed to move to end in Green Bay’s 3-4 defense. Thornton’s tenure at Southern Miss couldn’t have been odder – in his four years on the field, the Golden Eagles went from 8-5, to 12-2, to 0-12, to 1-11. Through it all, Thornton was solid. Despite his 300 pound weight, Thornton actually looks pretty lean – despite modest production in the backfield, he looks constantly disruptive. Thornton is strong, he’s agile, he’s got a high motor, but he’s also very raw – he played for three different head coaches during his college career, and some stability should do him good. Third round was likely a bit high for him, considering he didn’t produce a whole lot against marginal competition, but Thornton has some potential as a rotational defensive lineman.
Third round, pick #98 overall: Richard Rodgers, TE, California
6’4’’, 257 lb.
The last Rodgers from Cal the Packers drafted worked out pretty well. This one, Richard Rodgers, was a wide receiver in high school and moved to tight end once he reached college – limited by injuries and fluctuating weight, Rodgers only recorded about 900 receiving yards in his college career. Rodgers is a very unrefined player at this point, but the Packers are betting on his size, hands and potential as a short to intermediate target and blocker. Rodgers flashes some raw ability as a pass catcher and he’s a willing blocker, but he needs a lot of work developing his route running and blocking technique – he’s also a limited athlete who is likely too slow to be a factor downfield. It’ll take some time for Richard Rodgers to find the field, and perhaps more time to find his niche. Furthermore, tight end Crockett Gillmore from Colorado State – one of my favorite players at the position in this draft – went with the very next pick. I think this may have been a mistake this high in the draft.
Fourth round, pick #121 overall: Carl Bradford, LB, Arizona State
6’1’’, 250 lb.
Carl Bradford teamed with new Chicago Bear Will Sutton to form one of the most effective pass rushing tandems in the Pac-12 at Arizona State – while Sutton got all the accolades, Bradford notched 20 sacks himself his last two years. Bradford played a hybrid defensive end/outside linebacker position in the Sun Devil defense, and while he doesn’t have exceptional size or athleticism, he succeeded through pure effort, instinct, and some surprising quickness. That said, I’m not quite sure how effective he’ll be in the NFL. He’s a pure edge rusher who didn’t factor in a ton in run defense and coverage. He could contribute in a role as a situational pass rusher, but his lack of strength, length, and unrefined arsenal of moves will hold him back. Bradford is sure to be a stand-up rusher in Green Bay’s 3-4, but I like him better with his hand on the ground. Not a bad player, but a poor fit in my estimation.
Fifth round, pick #161 overall: Corey Linsley, C, Ohio State
6’3’’, 296 lb.
Corey Linsley started his career at Ohio State as a guard, but moved to center after the graduation of All-American Mike Brewster – Linsley went on to start capably at the pivot for two seasons. Linsley may lack in girth (he was the lightest center who weighed in at the combine), but he makes up for it with tremendous upper-body strength and a solid base. Linsley can really generate push in the run game, and he snaps to his blocks really quickly. Linsley was the anchor of a terrifically productive Ohio State rushing attack, and I think he could helm an NFL line – he’s a smart, dependable and tough center. Linsley’s a road grader, and the opportunity is there for him to seize the Packers’ starting job. Last year’s starter, Evan Dietrich-Smith, is gone to Tampa Bay – J.C. Tretter is the presumptive starter, but the 2013 4th round pick has never played in an NFL game. If Linsley can’t beat Tretter out,
Fifth round, pick #176 overall: Jared Abbrederis, WR, Wisconsin
6’1’’, 195 lb.
A native of Wautoma, Wisconsin, Jared Abbrederis walked on to the University of Wisconsin football team and wound up being one of the most productive receivers in the Big Ten. A born slot receiver, Abbrederis is one of the best pure route runners in the draft – last year, he carved up first round cornerback Bradley Roby with a torrent of double moves to the tune of 10 catches, 207 yards and a touchdown. That’s about where the strengths end. Abbrederis has solid hands, but nothing special – you won’t see him making many really difficult catches – and his strength, athleticism, quickness and creativity after the catch leave a lot to be desired. His route running is a great skill, however, and he might be able to find some work as a possession receiver.
Brother of former Panthers and Jets running back Mike Goodson, Demetri Goodson initially took a different path. Goodson spent three years as a member of the Gonzaga basketball team, one of college basketball’s greatest mid-major powers, and as Gonzaga’s starting point guard he made a name for himself with a game-winning shot against Western Kentucky in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. With one year of eligibility left, Goodson suddenly decided to give football a shot, and eventually became a starting cornerback at Baylor. Goodson has good size and is very athletic, but he’s extremely raw, he’ll be a 25 year old rookie, and he’s had major durability problems in his past. Goodson has improved as he gets more experience – he’s a piece of raw clay that NFL coaching could mold into a contributor. Goodson brings some nice natural ball skills, and he’s a low risk high reward type pick. Why not?
Seventh round, pick #236 overall: Jeff Janis, WR, Saginaw Valley State
6’3’’, 219 lb.
When you’re picking someone out of Division II, I would hope he was at least dominant. Jeff Janis was dominant. An unheralded high school player, Janis went to Saginaw Valley State and became a star, recording over 3,000 receiving yards in his last two years alone. Janis was a man among boys at the D-II level – he’s not only 6’3’’, but he’s also an exceptional athlete with 4.4 speed and excellent leaping ability. He was too big, too fast and too strong for D-II cornerbacks. Now Janis has to prove that he was more than a big fish in a small pond. Janis never had to run sharp routes to succeed, and his hands aren’t the best – he might need some work, but he has the size and athleticism to be an excellent NFL receiver. At #236 overall, what more could you ask for?
Minnesota Vikings
First round, pick #9 overall: Anthony Barr, LB, UCLA
6’5’’, 255 lb.
Anthony Barr comes from a football family – his father and two uncles all played in the NFL. They also all played at Notre Dame, but when the time came for Anthony, then a highly regarded running back, to choose his college, he spurned the Fighting Irish and went to UCLA. Barr found a starting role at F-back his sophomore year, but when new coach Jim Mora Jr. came to town he switched to outside linebacker and immediately shone. In his two years on defense, Barr totaled 23.5 sacks, two first team All-Pac-12 selections, and consensus All-American honors his senior year. Barr is still a very raw player, which increases his value – he managed to be extremely productive in college and still has his best football ahead of him. Barr is tall and athletic with a tremendous initial burst into the backfield, and that alone is enough to turn heads. At this point, however, his overall skillset is quite limited. Barr is a pure speed rusher with very unrefined moves, he doesn’t use his hands particularly well and he’s often locked down when he’s not able to blow by his man off the ball. Barr’s strength is really lacking, preventing him from being much help in run defense, as he gets blown off the ball and is unable to set the edge. His eyes and instincts are still developing, and he’s susceptible to play fakes. All these are problems that I think can be fixed with time and good coaching – he has double digit sack potential, but the Vikings are going to need to be patient and remember that he’s only been playing on defense for two years. Additionally, Barr is more suited for the 3-4 defense he played in at UCLA, and I really don’t think he’s a good fit for Minnesota’s 4-3. So let’s hold off on the Jason Taylor comparisons for a little while, OK?
First round, pick #32 overall: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
6’2’’, 214 lb.
Everyone knew Teddy Bridgewater was gonna fall, but it surprised me anyway. Bridgewater had a stellar career at Louisville, establishing himself as college football’s must-see stars – he ended his career with an evisceration of the Miami Hurricanes in the Russell Athletic Bowl, and looked poised to be a top five pick. He ended up at #32. Bridgewater is as polished a decision maker as you’ll find in the collegiate ranks. His accuracy in the short to intermediate game is surgical. He never forces throws. He has a good feel for the pocket, and he’s quick enough to evade the rush and make some plays with his feet. Bridgewater’s one downfall is deep ball accuracy, but in a West Coast offense, he could be a Pro Bowler. Bridgewater is poised, determined and a born leader, and I’m confident that he’ll put in the work to be the best quarterback he can be. Here’s the problem, though – is Minnesota the right place for him? Bridgewater is built for an offense that will utilize his effectiveness on short to intermediate passes, but the Vikings’ new offensive coordinator is Norv Turner, a coach known for spurning the principles of the West Coast offense and instead heavily calling deep balls. This directly plays into Bridgewater’s biggest weakness, and I fear that if Turner doesn’t tailor his offense more to his new quarterback, Minnesota isn’t going to get much out of Teddy Bridgewater. And that’s a damn shame.
Third round, pick #72 overall: Scott Crichton, DE, Oregon State
6’3’’, 273 lb.
Scott Crichton arrived at Oregon State a rather unfancied prospect, but ended up one of the most productive defensive ends in the Pac-12 – 22.5 sacks and 10 forced fumbles in three years. Crichton is a bit more polished than Barr, a nice mix of strength, size, burst and athleticism, but he still could stand to develop his pass-rushing moves. Crichton is a nice fit at 4-3 defensive end – he’s strong enough to set the edge in the run game, he’s a sure tackler, and he has a great knack for stripping the ball. If he further develops his pass rush technique, he could approach double digit sacks. Crichton has a shot to start right away, and let me make this prediction – in 2014, Scott Crichton will be the more impactful player than Anthony Barr. Take it to the bank.
Third round, pick #96 overall: Jerick McKinnon, RB, Georgia Southern
5’9’’, 209 lb.
Triple option offenses don’t often produce highly-drafted players – let alone FCS triple option offenses. But Jerick McKinnon doesn’t quite fit the mold. McKinnon wore a million different hats at Georgia Southern: running back, quarterback, return man, cornerback, you name it. McKinnon was a very productive ballcarrier, recording over 3,900 rushing yards in his career, but really burst onto the scene with a 125 yard performance in Georgia Southern’s stunning 2013 win at Florida. McKinnon shows a ton of promise, and I think he could be a starting running back down the line. McKinnon is well-built, tremendously strong, and a terrific athlete – he has the speed to get to the edge and outrun defenders, but he’s also an extremely tough runner between the tackles. Despite his lack of height, McKinnon can move the pile. Although McKinnon also shows some potential as a cornerback, tailback should be where he stays. McKinnon will benefit from being able to fully focus on one position, and I see bright things in his future.
Fifth round, pick #145 overall: David Yankey, G, Stanford
6’6’’, 315 lb.
How often do you get a two-time consensus All-American in the fifth round? More impressively, David Yankey did it at two different positions. Yankey was a left tackle when he earned his first All-American nod in 2012, and a guard when he did it again in 2013. Yankey doesn’t have a lot of subtlety to his game – he’s a big dude who kicks ass. Yankey’s a nasty, powerful guard with long arms who constantly generates movement in the run game, pass blocks pretty well, and is a menace as a pulling guard. He isn’t the quickest or the most athletic, and he has a tendency to slip off blocks, but Yankey wins battles more consistently than just about any offensive lineman in the draft. He’s got the track record, he’s got the size, he’s got the power, and I think he’s gonna be a starting guard in the NFL – hopefully in a power running scheme that will let him crush as much as possible.
Sixth round, pick #182 overall: Antone Exum, CB, Virginia Tech
6’0’’, 213 lb.
Antone Exum looked like a real up and comer in 2012. A second team All-ACC selection at cornerback after switching from the free safety position, Exum recorded five interceptions and might have been the best player on the entire Virginia Tech team. Unfortunately, in January 2013 Exum tore the ACL and meniscus in his right knee in a pickup basketball game – he came back in late October but didn’t look the same, playing in only three games before a sprained ankle sidelined him for good. Despite the injuries, Exum is still an intriguing prospect because of his size and ball skills. Aside from that, I’m not overly enthusiastic. Exum was pretty athletic and fluid before his injury, but he needs to prove he can come back and return to that level – even then, he wasn’t a great cover corner who could take his man out of a game. Exum is strong and physical, and may be a better fit at safety, where he began his Hokie career. All rests on how he’s able to bounce back from his injuries, but if he regains that athleticism he could be an asset in the Viking secondary.
Sixth round, pick #184 overall: Kendall James, CB, Maine
5’10’’, 180 lb.
If not, the Vikings hedged their bets with cornerback Kendall James from Maine. James was a three year starter for the Black Bears, and a first team All-CAA selection his senior year. James is a excellent athlete – his speed and leaping ability are fantastic – and he shows some real NFL-level coverage skill. The main issue is a lack of size and strength. James is skinny with short arms, he has trouble getting off of blocks, and he doesn’t fare as well in press coverage, though he doesn’t lack for a feisty and aggressive attitude on the field. James’ ceiling is likely as a nickel or dime corner, and he has the athleticism and pure skill to effectively cover smaller receivers.
Shamar Stephen is a project, but you won’t find many finished products in the seventh round. Stephen was a starting defensive tackle for a moribund UConn team in 2012 and 2013, although his junior year was curtailed by injury. Stephen has the tools you’d want in a defensive tackle – he’s big, occupies space, and he has surprising athleticism. Stephen could play in either a 4-3 or a 3-4, but he’s very raw at this point. His instincts and technique need developing, and he disappears from the game for long periods of time. Stephen wasn’t much of a playmaker at UConn, and never really made much noise – the Vikings are drafting him on pure promise. If the Vikings are patient with him, Stephen could develop into a viable rotational lineman, but they’ll really need to work with him.
Brandon Watts was a two-year starter for Georgia Tech, and despite his lack of size he’s slipped into the draft because of his speed, athleticism and coverage ability. Watts lacks functional strength and his tackling could use work, and his want of size and power will likely limit him for his entire career. A move to strong safety is a possibility, and might be the best possible option for him. Watts has special teams experience, and at the very least should be able to contribute there.
Seventh round, pick #225 overall: Jabari Price, CB, North Carolina
5’10’’, 200 lb.
Jabari Price suffered through several injury-plagued seasons at North Carolina but finally found some stability his senior year, starting every game the Tar Heels played and earning an All-ACC honorable mention. Price is a fast, aggressive and physical corner who looks like he could stand out on special teams – he may have to, because his coverage ability leaves a lot to be desired. Price only recorded two interceptions in four years at UNC, he reacts late to cuts, and he’s caught too often looking in the backfield. Price isn’t an NFL-caliber cover corner, and he’ll have to shine on special teams to find a spot.
First round, pick #16 overall: Zack Martin, OT, Notre Dame
6’4’’, 308 lb.
To be honest, I was rooting for the Cowboys to take Johnny Manziel at #16, just for the comedy alone. You just know Jerry Jones wanted to do it. Surprisingly, however, he showed some restraint. Instead, the Cowboys went in the complete opposite direction - Notre Dame tackle Zack Martin, widely regarded as one of the safest prospects in the draft. Martin started four years at left tackle for the Fighting Irish, never missing a single game. Martin’s short arms will likely force him to move inside at the NFL level, but as a college tackle he was top-notch.
Nimble and smart, Martin consistently took edge rushers out of the game – he gets off the ball extremely quickly, which allowed him to win battles in the run game. Martin totally neutralized Stanford’s Trent Murphy last year, a deadly rusher who notched 15 sacks in 2013, in one of the most impressive performances of his career. His vision is excellent, his footwork polished, and his fundamentals solid. But that was as a tackle. Martin’s frame is more suited for the inside. Martin has zero experience at guard, and mobility is his virtue, not his strength. When Martin gets push as a run blocker, it’s because he’s gotten off the ball first, not because he’s outmuscling the defender, and he’s never gone up directly against defensive tackles like the ones he will battle in the NFL. Martin’s first order of business needs to be hitting the hell out of the weight room, but he’s going to a zone-blocking scheme where his talents will be best utilized. Martin will start from day one, and while I think his ceiling at that position is limited, he could be a solid starter for Dallas moving forward.
Second round, pick #34 overall: Demarcus Lawrence, DE, Boise State
6’2’’, 251 lb.
A junior college transfer, Demarcus Lawrence shone from the first moment he took the field at Boise State. Lawrence played two seasons for the Broncos, racking up a total of 20 sacks – he was named first team All-Mountain West both years. Now, the Cowboys are hoping he can replace DeMarcus Ware. Lawrence has a good frame and scouts rave about his athleticism and explosion. I can definitely see the playmaking ability and the natural gifts, but it’s more of a flash than a sustained attack. Lawrence feasted on overmatched Mountain West right tackles, but he doesn’t bring a sustained pass rush against higher quality opponents. Lacking in physical strength, Lawrence is often totally washed out in the run game and he’s a nonfactor in coverage. Lawrence will have to be a rushing defensive end on passing downs – he’s better with his hand on the ground anyway – but I don’t think he’ll be able to consistently succeed against NFL tackles. Don’t like this one.
Fourth round, pick #119 overall: Anthony Hitchens, LB, Iowa
6’0’’, 240 lb.
Anthony Hitchens was the second Iowa linebacker taken in the draft – his partner in crime Christian Kirksey went to the Browns in the third round. Hitchens was a two year starter at Will linebacker and the Hawkeyes’ Defensive MVP in 2013, logging over 100 tackles in both his junior and senior years. This pick looks like a major reach. Hitchens was predicted to go as late as the seventh round, or to not be drafted at all, owing to his lack of height, mediocre physical strength, lack of effectiveness in coverage and his tendency toward late reactions. From what I’ve seen, Hitchens appears to be pretty fast with good range and a knack for hitting hard, but his size will hold him back. Hitchens’ ceiling is likely as a backup outside linebacker/special teams player – not the kind of guy you want to take as high as the fourth round.
Devin Street caught over 200 balls in his four year career at Pitt, making him the school’s all-time receptions leader, surpassing the likes of Larry Fitzgerald and Antonio Bryant. Tall and lanky, Street doesn’t have terrific top-end speed but can cover ground quickly, and he has excellent hands. Street can beat defenders on the outside, but he’s also not afraid to work underneath and over the middle, one of the reasons I think he was an excellent value pick in the fifth round – you can rely on him to catch anything you throw at him, anywhere on the field. If Street improves his still-rudimentary route running skills, he could be a productive NFL receiver due to his size and pass catching ability.
Seventh round, pick #231 overall: Ben Gardner, DE, Stanford
6’4’’, 262 lb.
Ben Gardner was the heart and soul of one of the top defenses in Division I, a run-stuffing defensive end who saw his team participate in three BCS bowls during his career. Gardner’s got good size, especially for a 4-3 defensive end, but he lacks the desired agility and athleticism – moreover, he’s got alligator arms. Not much of a pass rusher, Gardner’s skillset would best be suited to the inside, but he simply doesn’t have the size. Gardner is naturally strong, plays hard and he’s a good tackler, and he could snag a roster spot as a backup defensive end in Dallas’ 4-3 defense, playing mostly on running downs.
Seventh round, pick #238 overall: Will Smith, LB, Texas Tech
6’2’’, 231 lb.
Will Smith (not the Fresh Prince) was the linchpin of Texas Tech’s defense his senior year, notching over 100 tackles and the Holiday Bowl MVP award. Smith began his career with his brother Wade at Division II Northwood University, moving from there to a junior college and then on to the Big 12, where he turned himself into an NFL draft pick. Smith lacks ideal size and has short arms, but he’s a pretty intriguing prospect – he flows very fast to the ball, tackles well, and reads plays well. Smith’s a factor both in coverage and the run game. His most pressing need is to hit the weight room and build strength, but I see Smith taking a roster spot and contributing on special teams, even if the Cowboys don’t see him as a viable option to take up many snaps on defense.
Seventh round, pick #248 overall: Ahmad Dixon, SS, Baylor
6’0’’, 212 lb.
I think the Cowboys have done a better job in the seventh round than they did earlier in the draft. Ahmad Dixon switched from safety to corner and then back to safety at Baylor, an aggressive and hard-hitting run stopper and blitz threat. Dixon’s limited in coverage and doesn’t make many plays on the ball, and he’s not a top-level athlete – he posted a weak combine performance, despite the fact that he shows some speed out on the field. Nevertheless, he’s a reliable tackler who takes good angles and thrives in the run game. Dixon makes a lot of plays around the line of scrimmage and could contribute immediately on special teams and find some time as a box safety on running downs. Both he and Will Smith should be good fits on special teams, but unlike Smith I think Dixon will find a place in the Cowboy defense in the years to come.
Seventh round, pick #251 overall: Ken Bishop, DT, Northern Illinois
6’0’’, 301 lb.
With their forty-third seventh round pick, the Cowboys took another run-stuffer, defensive tackle Ken Bishop from Northern Illinois. Bishop was a two-gap nose tackle in the MAC, and despite less than ideal height and length, Bishop is fiercely strong and shows the ability to hold his ground against the double team. Bishop isn’t much of a factor in the pass rush, but can really hold the middle against the run. Bishop wasn’t facing the cream of the crop in the MAC, so time will tell whether he’ll be able to be as effective against NFL interior lineman without terrific size. He’s sturdy as all get out, so I think the Cowboys have found another decent defensive rotational player in the seventh round.
Five seventh round picks, five defensive players. More impressively, Jerry Jones was able to restrain himself from taking any big-name, splashy players in this draft. In Terrance Mitchell, the Cowboys get a cornerback who was projected to go as high as the third round. He’s also probably my least favorite player that the Cowboys took in the seventh round. Mitchell has good size and ball skills, but lacks physical strength and can’t press cover – he has an aggressive temperament, but he’s a weak tackler and struggles to get off blocks. If you’re not strong or physical, you should at least be able to make up for it with athletic ability, but Mitchell’s athleticism is just average. His utility on special teams is limited, and I can’t see much of a future for Terrance Mitchell on defense. I just don’t think he has the tools or the skillset.
New York Giants
First round, pick #12 overall: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, LSU
5’11’’, 198 lb.
A true LSU legacy (his father, Odell Sr., was a running back for the Tigers in the early 90s, and his mother was an All-American for LSU in track), Odell Beckham Jr. has carved his own legacy in Baton Rouge as one of the SEC’s most dynamic playmakers. Beckham logged more than 2,000 receiving yards in three seasons, and also starred returning kicks and punts. Beckham’s speed and elusiveness have been his meal ticket, but his receiver skills are pretty polished – he’s a solid route runner who can make difficult catches and has excellent leaping ability. Beckham shows a lot of burst when changing directions, and I think he could be productive as either a slot receiver or on the outside in the NFL. His ability to make plays in the return game adds to his value. Beckham’s a natural talent that should only get better as he gets more experience, and I think he’ll be able to contribute immediately as a #2 or #3 receiver in New York.
Second round, pick #43 overall: Weston Richburg, C, Colorado State
6’3’’, 298 lb.
Weston Richburg not only has the perfect Wealthy Miser name, but he was a darn good lineman at Colorado State. Richburg started four years at all three offensive line positions, never missing a game despite breaking his hand in the middle of the 2011 season. Richburg is built for a zone scheme, lacking ideal size and power but showing good quickness, mobility, awareness, and the ability to snap quickly to the second level. Richburg showed in last year’s game with Alabama that he can handle facing top-level talent, and his versatility is a definite point in his favor. Richburg should fit well in the Giants’ scheme, and likely is due to start at center immediately. The learning curve will surely be steep, but I think Richburg can develop into a solid starting center.
Third round, pick #74 overall: Jay Bromley, DT, Syracuse
6’3’’, 306 lb.
A native of Jamaica, Queens, Jay Bromley is staying in his home city (well, not really, they play in New Jersey) as a New York Giant. Bromley became a full-time starter midway through his junior year, and as a senior recorded 14.5 tackles for loss for the Syracuse Orange. Bromley is a lumbering defensive tackle best suited for a 4-3, and he shows some surprising quickness when getting into the backfield. Bromley carries a reputation as a good run-stuffer, but I haven’t really seen that on tape – he seems to get washed out a lot, and he doesn’t hold the middle as well as you’d hope. His agility and pass rush ability are strengths, and while he could develop into a serviceable rotational defensive tackle, I don’t think he was a very good value in the third round. His strength is a major issue.
Fourth round, pick #113 overall: Andre Williams, RB, Boston College
5’11’’, 230 lb.
How often is it that a running back on a 7-5 team attracts serious Heisman Trophy consideration? Quite simply, in 2013, Andre Williams was the Boston College Eagles. He was the entire team. It was a season for the ages. Williams ran for nearly 2,200 yards, 6.5 yards per carry, 167.5 per game – he passed 200 yards in a game five times, scored 18 touchdowns, ran for 339 yards against NC State, and won the Doak Walker Award for best collegiate running back. Williams certainly had help from a strong offensive line that produced many untouched runs, but a worse back wouldn’t have had the production that Williams had. Williams is a speedy, strong one-cut back with excellent vision and the ability to break tackles – he’s also a good pass blocker. Williams hits the hole hard, and when he gets going he’s extremely tough to track down. While he’s not very shifty in space, he gobbles up chunks of yards at a time. Williams wasn’t a factor in the passing game at Boston College, but I’m not sure whether that had to do with his limitations or if it was a byproduct of Boston College’s system. Williams has the size, physical tools and vision to be a productive starting running back in the NFL, something the Giants were lacking on their roster. A good pick.
Fifth round, pick #152 overall: Nat Berhe, S, San Diego State
5’10’’, 193 lb.
Despite his size, Nat Berhe played a hybrid linebacker/safety position for much of his career at San Diego State, starting for three years. Berhe is a high-motor safety who, while he lacks elite speed, pursues with everything he has and can fly all over the field. Short-armed and small-handed, Berhe never focused much on coverage for the Aztecs, although he did notch five interceptions during his college career. Berhe’s aggression and tackling ability would suit him very well on special teams, and he might be able to find a niche as a backup box safety. However, his lack of size, mediocre impact in coverage and his average athleticism will likely limit him from being anything more than that.
The son of 11-year NFL vet Derek Kennard, Devon Kennard came into college as one of the most decorated high school prospects in the country, second only to USC teammate (and future NFC East foe) Matt Barkley. Kennard was shifted from position to position as a Trojan, seeing time at defensive end, outside linebacker and middle linebacker, shining the most in his senior year as a 3-4 outside linebacker. Kennard has a great build for the position and produced as a pass rusher off the edge his senior year, but I just don’t think he has the athleticism or the burst to be effective there in the NFL – he also lacks strength, struggles to get off blocks, and isn’t much of a factor in the run game. Kennard scores points for his versatility, but not for much else.
Bennett Jackson doesn’t have much experience at defensive back – he originally came to Notre Dame as a wide receiver, used mainly on special teams. After he excelled on that end, the Fighting Irish converted him to cornerback, and he became a two-year starter. Jackson is still pretty raw on defense, but he has good size for the position, he’s athletic, and he shows intriguing upside. He has the ball skills of a wide receiver, and he’ll have the chance to contribute right away on special teams while continuing to develop as a defensive back. A low-risk, potentially high-reward pick for the Giants – my favorite kind.
Philadelphia Eagles
First round, pick #26 overall: Marcus Smith, LB, Louisville
6’3’’, 251 lb.
What if I told you that one of the most dangerous pass rushers in Division I was actually a quarterback in high school? Because seriously, Marcus Smith was a quarterback. Smith switched to defense once he got to Louisville, gained 40 pounds, and ended up posting 24 sacks in his college career – 14.5 of them in a breakout senior season. Best as a stand-up rusher, Smith was built to be a 3-4 outside linebacker and should fit well in Philadelphia’s scheme. So far we’ve seen plenty of edge rushers, guys like Dee Ford who profile as situational players, but to me Smith is a well-rounded outside linebacker who can play every down. Smith’s pass rush moves are still unpolished, but he consistently gets to the quarterback – his combination of speed, burst and high motor are tough to stop, and he often flies right by his man. He’s quick to drop back into pass coverage and is athletic enough to cover tight ends. Smith needs some work in run defense, but he shows some natural aptitude. Smith’s functional strength is good and he holds the edge well, he doesn’t get pushed back, but he sometimes misdiagnoses plays and allows himself to get drawn too far in. That can be fixed. Smith needs some refinement, but he has the ability to become a very good starting linebacker – he’ll likely contribute on passing downs right away, but with Connor Barwin and Trent Cole already in Philly’s fold, Smith will have the chance to develop without having to shoulder too much of a burden.
Second round, pick #42 overall: Jordan Matthews, WR, Vanderbilt
6’3’’, 212 lb.
Jordan Matthews is a second cousin of Jerry Rice, and I guess being an excellent wide receiver runs in the family. Matthews was an undeniable star at Vanderbilt, shattering every Commodore receiver record and even setting the SEC records for career receptions and receiving yards. Will Matthews be able to continue that success in the NFL? Matthews projects as a possession receiver, in my opinion – while he lacks elite athleticism and struggles to create separation vertically, he has terrific hands, size, and he’s a polished route runner. Matthews isn’t going to be a big play target downfield, but he’s a very solid fundamental wide receiver who has the ability to make some terrific catches in the air and should be a good red zone target. Matthews’ time as a star will likely end once he reaches the NFL, but he’s a reliable target who will be a big help to whatever quarterback he’s playing with. A safe, productive pick for the Eagles in the second round.
Third round, pick #86 overall: Josh Huff, WR, Oregon
5’11’’, 206 lb.
With former Oregon coach Chip Kelly now heading the Eagles, Philly went with one of Coach Kelly’s old favorites: receiver Josh Huff. A factor in the Oregon offense from the beginning, Huff racked up over 1,100 receiving yards in a breakout senior year. In Philadelphia, Huff will feel right at home. Huff is a nimble, tough receiver who should fit well in the slot – he has a knack for finding space, he has good hands and he can be elusive after the catch. Like Jordan Matthews, Huff doesn’t have great speed or explosion and probably won’t make too many plays downfield in the NFL, but he should be able to make an impact in the short-to-intermediate game. Chip Kelly knows how to use him – when you take Matthews into account, Huff will likely be the #4 behind Jeremy Maclin, Riley Cooper and his fellow rookie, but he’ll have a chance to take on greater responsibility down the road.
Brother of Clemson wide receiver and 2014 first round pick Sammy Watkins, Jaylen Watkins was a heralded recruit whose college performance at Florida was underwhelming. Watkins was never able to consistently hold his position in the starting lineup for the Gators, but showed versatility, seeing time at both safety and corner. Watkins is best suited to play as a slot/nickel corner, where he doesn’t have to go one on one on the outside where his late reaction and tendency to allow downfield separation can do him harm. Watkins is fast, physical, and can make a difference in the run game. Underneath, he could be able to make an impact. He isn’t really equipped to be a starter, but he could be a valuable role player if his talents are utilized correctly.
Fifth round, pick #141 overall: Taylor Hart, DE, Oregon
6’6’’, 281 lb.
In the fifth round, the Eagles took another of Chip Kelly’s old Oregon players. Taylor Hart was a three year starter for the Ducks, spending significant time at both defensive end and defensive tackle – he’s been compared to Brett Keisel, and he’s a fine fit for Philadelphia’s 3-4 defense. If he can learn to consistently channel his power, he could be a starter – he’s got terrific size for the position. He’s a tad immobile, lumbering around in space and lacking burst to the quarterback, and his impact will largely be limited to the run game. Hart’s a prototypical 3-4 run-stuffing defensive end – he sets the edge, pursues hard, and tackles heavy. Not flashy, but necessary. That sort of contribution will be greatly appreciated in Philadelphia, where they already have the likes of Connor Barwin, Trent Cole and Marcus Smith tasked with getting to the quarterback. However, I have the sneaking feeling that the Eagles are drafting Hart to move him to the inside, considering their lack of depth at nose tackle – I think it would be a terrible waste of Hart’s talents to play up the middle.
Fifth round, pick #162 overall: Ed Reynolds, S, Stanford
6’1’’, 207 lb.
Back to the Pac-12. Ed Reynolds is an NFL legacy – his father, Ed Sr., played linebacker for the Patriots and Giants for ten years and later worked in the NFL central office. Reynolds was a two-year starter at Stanford, making his biggest impact his junior year – Reynolds had six interceptions, returned three for touchdowns, and finished one yard shy of the NCAA record for interception return yards in a single season. He didn’t flash that playmaking ability again in 2013, recording only one interception. It seems more likely that the prolific production of his junior year was a fluke – Reynolds frequently finds himself in the wrong place downfield, and he’s a mediocre athlete with short arms and small hands. Reynolds has good size and can contribute in the run game with his physicality – he could find a niche as a backup box safety and special-teamer, but I don’t see much more than that in his future. He lacks the athleticism or coverage skills to distinguish himself.
The Eagles’ depth at nose tackle is very questionable, but Philadelphia decided to wait until the seventh round to take a true up-the-middle player – Taylor Hart might be able to play there, but I see him as more of an end. Beau Allen was the center of the Wisconsin defensive line for four years, and he brings a big body and a ton of experience in a 3-4 front. For a man his size, Allen’s strength is questionable. He gets rooted out of his hole way too much, despite having all the size you’d want – he shows some quickness, but he absolutely has to be able to hold the middle. Allen will rarely be mistaken for a playmaker. Allen may grow into a functional backup, but he needs to learn how to tap into his strength and occupy blocks. Allen has experience, size and he knows what’s expected of him as a 3-4 nose tackle, so he has something going for him there.
Washington Redskins
Second round, pick #47 overall: Trent Murphy, LB, Stanford
6’5’’, 250 lb.
New head coach Jay Gruden has already announced that the Redskins will be keeping their old 3-4 defensive scheme, and in the second round, DC went with a player who was very productive in that system during his college career. As a 3-4 outside linebacker at Stanford, Trent Murphy made himself into one of the best pass rushers in the country, recording 32.5 sacks in his career – 15 of them in a consensus All-American senior year, leading Division I. The pass rush has been Murphy’s meal ticket, but his all-around game is surprisingly developed. He’s strong enough to control the line and set the edge in the run game and he’s not bad in coverage, especially against tight ends. Murphy’s hands measured as the biggest among every player at the NFL Combine. However, Murphy might find it difficult to get to the passer so easily in the NFL. Murphy racked up sacks mainly due to his motor and instincts, which were able to make up for the fact he’s an average athlete who lacks explosiveness and burst towards the quarterback. Against higher quality tackles, Murphy has struggled – the one game that sticks out in my mind is last year’s game against Notre Dame, where Zack Martin (who likely won’t even play tackle in the pros) turned Murphy into a complete nonfactor. During Murphy’s 15-sack 2013, Martin was the only high-quality tackle he faced, and he did not live up to the challenge. The Redskins already have Ryan Kerrigan and Brian Orakpo to wreak havoc in the backfield, but I don’t think they can count on that much from Murphy.
Third round, pick #66 overall: Morgan Moses, OT, Virginia
6’6’’, 314 lb.
I guess the Redskins figured that Tyler Polumbus just wasn’t getting the job done. The Redskins have a Pro Bowl left tackle in Trent Williams, but the right side has been a question mark – Washington hopes that a local product, Morgan Moses, is the answer. Moses played left tackle in 2013 after the graduation of Oday Aboushi, but before then played exclusively on the right side. Moses has terrific size for the position and long arms – his size and length, coupled with his excellent hand use, make it very difficult for rushers to get around him despite his limited athleticism and mobility. However, really quick opponents give Moses a ton of trouble. Moses doesn’t maul people the way you’d like him to in the run game, however. In space, there’s not much he can do, and he doesn’t have the nastiness or intensity to consistently push his opponent back. There are plenty of linemen like Moses: big, immobile tackles that step heavy and don’t consistently get the job done. Moses has the frame you want, but I can’t see him ending up anything more than an adequate starter.
Third round, pick #78 overall: Spencer Long, G, Nebraska
6’5’’, 320 lb.
The Redskins are trying to build a line that can actually protect their investment in Robert Griffin III, and while I don’t like the Moses pick, I do like Spencer Long from Nebraska. A three-year starter, Long was limited by right knee injuries in his junior and senior years – something that bears monitoring – but excelled when on the field. Long has great size and strength, uses leverage well, and just wins battles in the pass and the run game. Long is feisty and surprisingly quick, and while he’s not a superb athlete, he’s good enough to get the job done. Long is a very solid all-around guard. If Long had been able to stay 100% when in college, he would have been drafted higher, but it’s the Redskins’ gain. I see Long starting, and playing well, from day one.
While I think the Redskins blew their first two picks, they’ve picked it up – Long is a starting-caliber guard, and I like cornerback Bashaud Breeland out of Clemson. Breeland is a work in progress, but he has potential – a talented cover corner with good size and ball skills, Breeland has special teams experience and a lot of feistiness. Breeland is an average athlete who needs to get stronger and has a tendency to get stuck on blocks, but I love the effort he gives, and he can make some plays matched up one on one. Breeland had a devil of a time covering Rashad Greene, generally regarded as one of the top receivers in next year’s class, in Clemson’s matchup with Florida State this year – Greene, a great route-runner who finds space as well as anyone in college football, simply outsmarted him. Breeland does better when he’s on the outside, and he really gets in there in the run game. Breeland can contribute right away on special teams, and he continues to develop his eyes and instincts, he could be a very solid nickel corner.
Fifth round, pick #142 overall: Ryan Grant, WR, Tulane
6’0’’, 199 lb.
Ryan Grant emerged as a junior for the Tulane Green Wave, tallying over 1,100 yards in his first full season as a starter – he topped 1,000 again the next season, a two-time first team All-Conference USA. Above all else, Grant is skilled. A sharp route runner, Grant is known for his terrific hands and his ability to make difficult catches. He isn’t flashy, but he more than got the job done in college. I’d like to see him tried as a slot receiver, since he lacks the speed and burst to consistently create separation downfield, but there are questions about how he’d fare – Grant is skinny and doesn’t have ideal strength, and he wasn’t asked to work the middle much at Tulane. If Grant can prove that he can handle going underneath, he could emerge as a very fine possession receiver. If not, there probably won’t be much use for him in the NFL.
A hyped high school prospect from Temple, Texas, Lache Seastrunk signed with the University of Oregon to great acclaim, but a series of strange circumstances resulted in his transfer to Baylor and Oregon getting placed on three years probation. At home in Baylor’s high-octane offense, Seastrunk averaged more than seven yards per carry during his two years for the Bears, totaling about 2,200 rushing yards. With Alfred Morris firmly entrenched as DC’s star running back, Seastrunk could be a really good change of pace back. Seastrunk is a home run hitter who can do a lot of damage in space – shifty and dangerous, Seastrunk has good vision and isn’t often brought down from behind. I’d like to see Seastrunk’s role expanded in DC. He wasn’t utilized much as a pass-catcher in college, nor as a return man, both pursuits I think he’d find success in. Seastrunk might initially find it tough to squeeze out carries with Roy Helu and Evan Royster also in the backfield, but I don’t doubt that he’ll find his niche and make some plays in the NFL.
The most productive tight end in Indiana football history, Ted Bolser caught 15 touchdown passes in his four year career. Bolser is a functional short range target with good size and decent hands, but that’s really about it. Bolser is minimally athletic and a lumbering route runner, and he’s also a weak blocker. With three more established tight ends already on the Redskins’ roster (Jordan Reed, Logan Paulsen and Niles Paul), I can’t see Bolser making any sort of impact unless he can find a role on special teams. He neither has the athleticism, the physicality, nor the special skill to play tight end in the NFL.
A… a kicker? Why? Why would you do this? Kai Forbath’s been pretty good, why bother? The Redskins, man. Zach Hocker rebounded from a dreadful 2012 campaign (just 11-19 on field goals) to turn in a career-best performance in 2013, hitting 13 of his 15 tries. Most impressively, in his career he was 5-7 from 50 yards or more, rare range for a college kicker – he also occasionally moonlighted as a punter in 2013, and averaged 45.7 yards per boot. Pretty good. Maybe Mr. Forbath is in for a challenge. Kickers are people too!
First round, pick #31 overall: Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State
5’11’’, 194 lb.
What to get the team that has everything (expect a Super Bowl ring with Peyton Manning)? Well, the Broncos have beefed up their secondary this offseason – the acquisitions of cornerback Aqib Talib and safety T.J. Ward certainly made noise, and the Broncos continued their mission by selecting Ohio State corner Bradley Roby in the first round. Roby was twice a first team All-Big Ten selection in college, recording 8 interceptions and 36 passes defensed in his three years as a starter. Roby will require some seasoning, but he’s got a good frame for the position, he’s very athletic, and he shows natural ball skills. Roby has the ability to blanket receivers downfield with his size and speed, and he’s got a great temperament – he’s feisty and he hits hard. Roby’s issues are mainly mental. Roby can get outsmarted by more polished route-runners, and is often caught peeking into the backfield and letting receivers get behind him. In Week 5 of 2013, Wisconsin’s Jared Abbrederis torched Roby to the tune of 207 yards and a touchdown, mystifying the cornerback with an array of double-moves and repeatedly catching Roby staring at the quarterback. If Roby can’t correct these issues, he won’t amount to much in the NFL. If he can, he could be really, really good. Let’s put a “wait and see” tag on Mr. Roby.
Second round, pick #56 overall: Cody Latimer, WR, Indiana
6’2’’, 215 lb.
An athletic and productive receiver for the Indiana Hoosiers, Cody Latimer mostly escaped mainstream notice… well, because he played for the Indiana Hoosiers. Despite being a part of perennially the worst team in the Big Ten, Latimer produced in his sophomore and junior years and even earned a second team All-Big Ten nod last season. Latimer is a big, surehanded receiver who was originally a basketball standout, although he’s not an exceptional athlete. Latimer lacks great foot speed or burst, but he’s an improving route-runner who shows some savvy and he knows how to use his size to win battles. Latimer projects to be a good red zone target, and he kinda reminds me of another former Big Ten receiver-turned-Denver Bronco: Eric Decker, recently departed to the Big Apple. Latimer will find time as a #3 or #4 receiver this year, and I certainly think he’ll catch his share of TDs from the great Peyton Manning.
Third round, pick #95 overall: Michael Schofield, OT, Michigan
6’6’’, 301 lb.
Michael Schofield (not the dude from Prison Break, but yo, that would be totally awesome) toiled in the shadow of Taylor Lewan on the Michigan line for three years, one starting at left guard and the final two at right tackle. Schofield’s collegiate career wasn’t especially distinguished, but a strong Senior Bowl performance helped elevate his draft stock. Schofield is a big, long-armed tackle who is strong enough to lock defenders down when he gets his hands on them, and can generate some movement in the run game. His versatility and experience inside adds to his value. However, Schofield’s power is offset by his slow-footed unathleticism – he’s a nonfactor in space and he really struggles against the speed rush. Schofield isn’t going to be asked to start at least for a while, and though I think he could be a solid backup, he has a low ceiling as a starter. I don’t think the Broncos got a lot out of their third round pick.
LSU’s Lamin Barrow was a team captain and a two-year starter at outside linebacker, recording over 200 tackles in his college career and earning a second team All-SEC nod his senior year. Personally, I think Barrow’s best bet would be a move to strong safety. Barrow is an undersized and underpowered outside linebacker who is most effective in coverage – he doesn’t have the strength or the instincts to be much of a factor in the run game, but his athleticism does him a lot of favors in space. Against the run, he looks just a bit too indecisive. Again, I think Barrow’s best bet is to shed a few pounds and move to safety – for now, his role will likely be exclusively on special teams. Barrow isn’t going to be able to contribute at linebacker in the NFL.
Sixth round, pick #207 overall: Matt Paradis, C, Boise State
6’3’’, 306 lb.
Matt Paradis has had a long, weird road to the NFL. Paradis grew up in Council, Idaho, population 839, and played eight-man football in high school. Paradis tore his ACL his senior year, and was barely recruited at all – instead, he was able to walk on to the Boise State squad as a defensive lineman. He grayshirted one year, redshirted another, and eventually moved to center – against the odds, Paradis became a starter, and an NFL draft pick. Paradis got here by being a good football player – he’s both smart and strong. Paradis will forever be limited by his average athleticism and lack of size, but he’s proven himself to be a dedicated and hardworking lineman who I could see carving out a career as a backup.
Corey Nelson’s a project, as most really late picks are. Constantly slowed by injuries at Oklahoma (including a torn pectoral that cost him most of his senior season), Nelson did alright when he played, but never really moved the needle. Nelson’s undersized with short arms and small hands, but he has some potential as a special-teamer – he did well in that area during his collegiate career, and he’s got good speed and a high motor. I can’t see Nelson making any impact as a linebacker. He’s too small, too weak a tackler and takes too long to read plays. It’s probably special teams or nothing for Corey Nelson.
Kansas City Chiefs
First round, pick #23 overall: Dee Ford, DE, Auburn
6’2’’, 252 lb.
In Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, the Kansas City Chiefs have two of the most dangerous edge rushers in the NFL. The Chiefs figure that that isn’t enough. In an Auburn career that was consistently limited by injury, Dee Ford played in two national championship games, winning one, and earned a first team All-SEC nod his senior year after recording 10.5 sacks. A defensive end in Auburn’s 4-3 defense, the undersized Ford is best suited to be a 3-4 rush linebacker, and he’ll get the chance to play that role in Kansas City. Ford is a straightforward speed rusher with a high motor and an explosive first step – he’s hell-bent on getting to the quarterback, and although he’s pretty one-dimensional, that one dimension is a good one. Ford isn’t much use in the run game – he isn’t strong enough to set the edge – and while he shows some adeptness in coverage owing to his speed and agility, that strength probably won’t be utilized too much in his first couple years. For now we’ll likely see Ford as a pass-rush specialist, not an every-down player. As he develops his moves, and if he can stay healthy, he could be one of the top pass rushers in the game, although he might need to wait – Ford is a clear case of drafting for the future, rather than selecting a player who can be relied on immediately. Justin Houston will be a free agent after this season and Tamba Hali after next season, so the Chiefs must be planning on not bringing back one or both of those players. If that happens, it’ll be Dee Ford’s time to shine.
Third round, pick #87 overall: Phillip Gaines, CB, Rice
6’0’’, 193 lb.
Lightly-recruited (as most players that make their way to Rice usually are), Phillip Gaines ended up one of the most decorated players in program history, a two time first team All-Conference USA and a third round pick to a team that has invested a lot of time in developing young defensive backs. Phillip Gaines is an extremely fast and athletic corner with good height and length, and he showed great ball skills against mid-major competition. Gaines certainly lacks strength and physicality, and he’s a definite project at cornerback – if his frame fills out, he could be a starter. The Chiefs are set for now at corner with the likes of Brandon Flowers, Sean Smith and Marcus Cooper, so Gaines will get the chance to develop without much pressure on him. Don’t bet against him – he’s a playmaker with elite speed.
Speaking of speed, here’s the Black Mamba, De’Anthony Thomas. A Division I All-American as a sprinter, De’Anthony Thomas made himself into a feared playmaker at the University of Oregon, whether it was rushing, receiving or returning – but his production often didn’t live up to his reputation. After a magnificent freshman year, Thomas was only an All-Pac-12 honorable mention after his sophomore year, and following an injury-addled 2013 received no postseason honors. Thomas is small, lacks strength and his durability is a question, but there’s no doubting his speed. Thomas outruns defenders with ease, but he compounds that blazing speed with video game-like elusiveness and surprising patience. He isn’t an every-down back, but if you get him the ball, big plays often follow. As a receiver, he’s got great hands – as a return man, he’s a threat to score every time. An obvious replacement for the departed Dexter McCluster, Thomas will get touches from day one – you wonder whether he will be able to withstand the rigors of an NFL season, but if McCluster (who’s almost exactly the same size) hasn’t had a problem, why should Thomas? Expect De’Anthony Thomas to make some plays. It’s what he does.
Aaron Murray was one of those guys who just seemed like he was in college forever. A four-year starter for the University of Georgia, Murray turned in one of the most prolific careers in the history of the SEC. Although always overshadowed by contemporaries like Cam Newton, A.J. McCarron and Johnny Manziel, Murray consistently won and looked great in doing so – he finished his collegiate career as the all-time SEC leader in passing yards and touchdowns. He’s also coming off a torn ACL. It’s because of these facts that I think Aaron Murray went into the draft as the forgotten man. Aaron Murray isn’t a world-changing talent. He isn’t a brilliant athlete, but he’s mobile enough to move the pocket and evade the rush. He doesn’t have a bazooka arm, but he’s strong enough to make throws downfield. Aaron Murray is a game manager. He’s a good decision-maker who takes what the defense gives him. He’s accurate just about all over the field. Of all the quarterbacks in the world, the one that Aaron Murray reminds me the most of is the guy he’ll be backing up: Alex Smith. But whereas Alex Smith was the #1 overall pick and was immediately thrown into the fire, Murray is going to start out as the Chiefs’ third-stringer – behind Smith and veteran backup Chase Daniel. Who knows if Murray will get the chance to start in Kansas City, but he’ll at least have time to learn and develop. I think you can win with Aaron Murray. I seriously do.
The brother of former Illinois and current Saskatchewan Roughrider lineman Xavier Fulton, Zach Fulton was a three-year starter at the University of Tennessee. Fulton battled through repeated left leg injuries during his college career, but only missed a couple games in his career. Fulton is a big, hulking guard who has limited natural athleticism and needs to learn how to consistently channel his natural power – while he could end up a regular somewhere down the line, at this point he’s somewhat of a project. Fulton’s collegiate career was undecorated and his combine performance mediocre, but he’s shown toughness in playing through pain, he’s got good size, and he has experience playing against a very high level of competition. Don’t expect to see him on the field much in the short-term, but there might be better days ahead for Zach Fulton.
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif is one of the most intriguing prospects in the entire draft. Hailing from Mont-Saint-Hilaire, Quebec, Duvernay-Tardif was a dominant left tackle in the Canadian college ranks and the consensus #1 choice in the CFL Draft. He did all this while a full-time medical student at Montreal’s McGill University, which forced him to practice on a reduced schedule. Despite only practicing once a week, Duvernay-Tardif was still the best player in all of Canada. I wish I had the chance to see Duvernay-Tardif a little more – by all accounts, he’s a fiercely strong and extremely nasty blocker who needs a good deal of refinement in his technique and fundamentals, but shows some real promise. Duvernay-Tardif is a bit undersized at tackle and seems most likely to move inside. Duvernay-Tardif is raw but talented – a fine selection in the sixth round, a draft slot that brings with it no expectations and the chance to develop. And if he doesn’t pan out? Well, the Calgary Stampeders hold his CFL rights. Or maybe he’ll just go off and be a doctor. That’s fine too.
Oakland Raiders
First round, pick #5 overall: Khalil Mack, LB, Buffalo
6’3’’, 251 lb.
Before August 31, 2013, not many people outside of the MAC had heard of Khalil Mack. Mainly a basketball player in high school, Mack only had two scholarship offers after his prep career was over: one from the University of Buffalo, and one from FCS Liberty University. He chose Buffalo, a traditionally downtrodden and ignored program that had only played in one bowl game in its history. While he excelled from the minute he stepped onto the field as a Buffalo Bull, Khalil Mack was never part of the national conversation – part of a team that only won nine games combined in his first three years, Mack hadn’t had the chance to shine on a national stage. Then the Ohio State game happened, and the world saw what Khalil Mack is all about. Khalil Mack is a disruptive force. Not only a big body for the position of outside linebacker, Mack has the speed and burst of a free safety, regularly tracking down running backs and receivers from behind. He is by far the single most polished pass rusher I’ve seen in this draft – he can burn you with his speed, bullrush you into oblivion or embarrass you with his moves. He wreaks havoc in the backfield and can truck the ballcarrier, but he’s also extremely smart and talented in pass coverage. He’s everything you could ever want in an outside linebacker. He’s strong, he’s fast, he’s polished, he’s smart, he’s tough. I think he misses a bit too many tackles up the middle to be a 4-3 middle linebacker, but he’s able to fit any other role with immediate effect. Mack could be a Pro Bowler in any system. The Raiders got a good one.
Second round, pick #36 overall: Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State
6’2’’, 214 lb.
It’s OK to be wary about Derek Carr. We all know that his brother was one of the most famous flops in NFL Draft history. Derek Carr followed in the footsteps of his big brother David, who too was once a touted, cannon-armed quarterback for the Fresno State Bulldogs But while David Carr was a disappointment after going #1 overall to the expansion Houston Texans in 2002, Derek is trying to change the ending of that story. Carr was a three-year starter for Fresno State, and a prolific one – nearly 13,000 yards and over 100 touchdowns thrown for his career, including 50 in his senior year. Carr certainly had the production – so have the Raiders finally found their franchise quarterback? Perhaps. It’s true that Carr’s numbers are vastly inflated. At Fresno State, Carr operated in a wide-open offense where he was able to rack up stats on short-to-intermediate passes – he was in the Mountain West to boot, facing some of the worst defenses in college football. Still, Carr shows some really good things on tape: he has a very strong arm with sharp accuracy, and the ability to, as they say, “make all the throws”. While his less-than-ideal size surely contributed to his fall to the second round, Derek Carr’s a pretty terrific athlete, able to make plays with his feet when necessary and evade the rush. He shows touch, and while his decision-making needs some work, it’s not that pressing of an issue. Adjusting to a pro-style offense will be a difficult process for Derek Carr – Lord knows the troubles his brother had – but if he is able to handle it mentally, he has the tools to succeed. In 20 years or so, I think we’ll look back and say that Derek Carr was by far the better of the Carr brothers – but that isn’t saying much.
Third round, pick #81 overall: Gabe Jackson, G, Mississippi State
6’4’’, 339 lb.
A native of Liberty, Mississippi (population 728), Gabe Jackson ate his vegetables, grew up to be big and strong, and became a first team All-SEC guard for the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Jackson doesn’t blow you away, but he’s a solid all-around guard who I think can be a serviceable starter. He doesn’t have ideal athleticism and doesn’t have the explosive power to sweep defenders off the ball, but Jackson’s an excellent pass blocker who is able to hold his blocks and seals well in the run game. He’s a big dude with great technique, smarts, and he plays hard. He’s no Pro Bowler, but he’s a darn fine guard. I think Jackson could start as a rookie, and he may need to – the Raiders have a few veteran options, but none really move the needle. Jackson has tons of experience playing against high level competition, and could jump right in there and make an impact.
With each passing pick, I like the Raiders’ draft more and more. They call Justin Ellis “Jelly Bean”, but I’m pretty sure it’s meant as a compliment – or, at least, not an insult. Ellis struggled with weight issues during his career at Louisiana Tech which contributed to leg and ankle injuries, but when he was out on the field (he started every game his sophomore and senior years), he was effective. Ellis needs to prove that he can consistently keep his weight under control and his conditioning has to improve. Even at a (relatively) smaller weight like 320, Ellis has the size to clog the middle, which he combines with some surprising agility and movement. He’s not much of a pass rusher, but he can find his way into the backfield and make you sweat, and he’s an anchor that is extremely difficult to push back. If Ellis can keep himself in top condition, he could be a solid starting nose tackle. Making sure Ellis can stay on the field has to be Oakland’s #1 priority with him.
Fourth round, pick #116 overall: Keith McGill, CB, Utah
6’3’’, 211 lb.
Tall cornerbacks are all the rage these days, and at 6’3’’, Utah’s Keith McGill fits the bill. McGill slid down to the fourth round mostly because of injury concerns (he missed the entire 2012 season with a shoulder injury) and off-the-field concerns (a DUI arrest a couple years ago, a supposed reputation for not taking the game seriously). I’m not gonna speculate on whether or not Keith McGill’s a bad guy or has a bad attitude. I’m only going to look at what I see on tape – and while I see some promise, there are some big drawbacks. McGill has all the size and athleticism you could want – the man has a 39-inch vertical leap – and he shows some cover skills. But there’s the fact that he’s a 25 year old rookie. And his injury history. And the fact that he’s a nonfactor in run defense, not physically strong and ill-suited to press coverage. He lacks a high motor and is a hesitant tackler. He won’t be a fit in special teams. McGill has a shot at sticking as a nickel or dime corner, but I can’t see much beyond that.
Travis Carrie spent six years at Ohio University due to various injuries – and that’s not counting the open heart surgery he had as a sophomore in high school. Carrie missed two full seasons due to a torn hip labrum and a fractured shoulder, and had to skip most NFL Combine drills due to a torn meniscus. I can’t help compare Carrie to Keith McGill, and while McGill is bigger and more athletic, I’d rather take Carrie. Travis Carrie doesn’t lack for speed himself, and unlike McGill, he carries himself with a real fiery demeanor and he’s physical to the point of committing some penalties – still, I’d rather take a guy who’s too physical and try to rein him in than attempt to make a lion out of a lamb. Carrie’s a talented cover guy with good ball skills and he’s a hard-hitting and technically sound tackler who could immediately be a core special teams player. I love Carrie’s attitude, he’s speedy and tough, and I really think this is a player who will make a difference in the NFL. Juuuuuust needs to cut down on the penalties a little.
Seventh round, pick #235 overall: Shelby Harris, DE, Illinois State
6’2’’, 288 lb.
With their second seventh round pick, the Raiders took a flyer on a guy who didn’t play in the 2013 season. Shelby Harris started his career at Wisconsin, but after a suspension for a violation of team rules, he transferred to FCS Illinois State. After two seasons with the Redbirds, Harris was kicked off the team for conduct detrimental, and spent last year out of football. I can’t say that much about him – the only film I was able to find on Shelby Harris was from last year’s Illinois State spring game. In that footage Harris looked pretty athletic and showed some disruptive ability… but it was also the spring game. Harris was also playing inside, which he’s likely too small to do in the NFL – Harris has also packed on some 30 pounds since he last played, so I’m not sure how much his game today resembles that what I saw on tape. By all accounts, Harris is somewhat of a long-shot to make the team, so I guess we’ll just have to see.
Seventh round, pick #247 overall: Jonathan Dowling, SS, Western Kentucky
6’3’’, 190 lb.
Another tall defensive back. Jonathan Dowling began his career under Urban Meyer at the University of Florida but was kicked off the team midway through his freshman year for skipping class and not listening to coaches. Still with three years of eligibility left, Dowling made the trip to Western Kentucky University, establishing himself as a playmaking safety for the Hilltoppers under Willie Taggart and Bobby Petrino. Tall, fast and lanky, Dowling shows some cover skills and definite playmaking ability. He’s also a very weak tackler – he doesn’t seem to know how to wrap the ballcarrier up, instead trying to spear the man. While this approach resulted in some hard hits and forced fumbles against Sun Belt competition, it won’t fly in the NFL, especially considering that Dowling is skinny and lacks physical strength. His special teams experience is a plus, but he’ll need to hit the weight room and revamp his tackling form if he wants to see the field on defense. If he can do these things, he could contribute.
San Diego Chargers
First round, pick #25 overall: Jason Verrett, CB, TCU
5’9’’, 189 lb.
Small but extremely athletic, Jason Verrett made his way to TCU after a stint at junior college – he didn’t have a single scholarship offer out of high school. In his three years with the Horned Frogs Verrett logged nine interceptions, 34 passes defensed and two first team All-Big 12 selections. Despite his small frame and short arms, Verrett is one of the best corners in the draft. Verrett augments his fantastic instincts with top-level closing speed, great burst in change of direction, and game-changing ball skills. As a cover corner, he’s extremely tough to beat – while taller receivers have a chance due to the size advantage, slot receivers and people under 6’2’’ are usually taken completely out of the game. Verrett has had durability issues and struggles to get off blocks, but while he may not be perfect, I love watching him play. He reminds me of former Pro Bowler Nathan Vasher, who was a heck of a playmaker in his own right – I think Verrett is a great pick and has a chance to be a Pro Bowler himself.
Second round, pick #50 overall: Jeremiah Attaochu, LB, Georgia Tech
6’3’’, 252 lb.
Born in Nigeria, Jeremiah Attaochu starred at Archbishop Carroll High School in Washington, DC before becoming Georgia Tech’s all-time sack leader. Attaochu began his college career as a 3-4 outside linebacker, but switched to a 4-3 defensive end under new defensive coordinator Ted Roof his senior year. He was productive in both systems, but he’ll be moving back to 3-4 outside linebacker in San Diego – a better fit for him. Attaochu is a disruptive, speedy edge rusher with a high motor who’s effective as a stand-up rusher or with his hand on the ground. He hasn’t yet developed and polished his moves, but his relentlessness and athleticism result in plenty of sacks. Attaochu’s lack of strength and marginal impact in the run game means that I think he’ll be limited to a pass rush specialist to start out, but if he fills out his game he has a chance to be an every-down starter. For now, he should make an impact getting after the quarterback.
Third round, pick #89 overall: Chris Watt, G, Notre Dame
6’3’’, 310 lb.
A three-year starter for the Fighting Irish, Chris Watt formed a tough left side of the line with Dallas Cowboys first round pick Zack Martin. His senior year Watt missed several games with a knee injury and was mostly held out of the Combine after pulling his quad running the 40 at his pro day. The Chargers are hoping that Watt can start right away, but I’m not too impressed with what I see. A thickly-built, lumbering guard, Watt doesn’t get outright beat a whole lot, but he doesn’t do much to inspire a ton of confidence. He’s an alright pass blocker and shows good footwork, but in the run game he’s weak – while he can push back smaller guys, he struggles to generate movement against bigger d-linemen, he’s ineffective in space, and he’s very poor when he has to reach. Very athletically limited, Watt has a low ceiling and I don’t think he’s good enough to play right now.
Fifth round, pick #165 overall: Ryan Carrethers, DT, Arkansas State
6’1’’, 337 lb.
Ryan Carrethers started two and a half years up the middle for the Arkansas State Red Wolves – during his four years in Jonesboro, Carrethers played for four different head coaches. Carrethers broke out in his senior season, recording 93 tackles and 4 sacks, great numbers for a nose guard, and also blocking a last-second field goal to clinch Arkansas State’s win in the GoDaddy Bowl. The GoDaddy Bowl is a real thing, and I think I even watched it this year. Carrethers is a big dude with a wrestling background who can hold his ground against double teams and clog the middle, although he sometimes gets shocked and pushed back. Not much of a threat to pass rush, Carrethers is strong but minimally athletic. He sometimes shows a little agility in slipping off blocks at the line of scrimmage, but that’s about it. Carrethers could find a niche as a rotational defensive tackle in a 3-4 (which is what the Chargers run), but outside of his girth and strength he doesn’t provide that much else.
Sixth round, pick #201 overall: Marion Grice, RB, Arizona State
6’0’’, 208 lb.
Academic issues kept Marion Grice from Texas A&M and forced him to take the junior college route, and it was Arizona State’s gain. In his two years with the Sun Devils, Grice established himself as one of the country’s best all-purpose threats – in his senior season Grice was the only player in Division I with at least 400 yards rushing, receiving, and kick returning. Grice operated out of a pistol offense in college, and most of his carries were draws or off-tackles – he rarely had to pound a run between the tackles, and I don’t think he has the size or strength to be equipped for it. Grice isn’t particularly fast either, but he’s quick – he has good vision, cuts on a dime, and he only fumbled once during his two years in the Pac-12. In space, Grice can lose tacklers. Grice is a reliable pass-catcher who’s very effective on screen passes, and his overall versatility, factoring in his success as a kick returner, and I think the Chargers have found a back who can be a factor at the NFL level. He won’t be a star and he won’t be an every down back, but Marion Grice can contribute in several different ways. Expect to see him as a change of pace back in the NFL.
Skinny as a rail, Tevin Reese put his lightning-strike speed to good use in the phenomenal Baylor offense, catching passes from Robert Griffin III and Bryce Petty. Reese averaged nearly 20 yards per catch in his college career, a freakish athlete with incredible speed and fantastic leaping ability, combined with rare body control and reliable hands. I’m not sure where he’ll fit in, however – Reese is too skinny and physically weak to handle physical coverage on the outside, so he’ll likely have to be a slot receiver. His durability is a big question, and it’s unsure whether he’ll be able to handle the contact over the middle. Reese has all the athleticism and talent in the world, but will he be able to last physically? It’s the question that caused him to fall to the second round – if he were thirty pounds heavier, he’d be a first or second day pick. If Reese is able to add some significant bulk in the weight room, he’ll be a 1000+ yard receiver in the NFL. Few seventh rounders have this kind of upside.
