A cladogram of “True” elder dragons I created. Given the fact that there seems to be many gaps in terms of elder dragon relations, and that many existing “true” elder dragons are quite different from each other, this is the best I could do. I included frontier dragons for a larger sample size, which makes things easier.
In this cladogram, elder dragons have a common ancestry with piscine wyverns. The hypothetical ancestor of elder dragons, piscine wyverns, and “piscine leviathans” (somna) was probably a quadrupedal Actinistian equivalent to tetrapods with very large paired dorsal fins. The ones that lead to piscine leviathans and elder dragons might have modified these paired dorsal fins into jointed limbs to be used used for movement like their other limbs, but then they became vestigial in some piscine leviathans (somna). Or maybe only the elder dragon line ones modified their dorsal fins in such a way.
One of the defining features of elder dragons are their horns, which often serve as some sort of modulator for their powers. Many elders also go through drastic changes throughout their life. Coupled with the hypothetical fish ancestry, I purpose that many elder dragons might have “tadpole” stages like amphibians, or go through several drastically different stages in their life cycle.
If creatures like somnacanth are the closest relatives, then Shantien might be the most basal existing elder dragon. I think it might have descended from elder dragons that hadn’t quite evolved their fins into wings yet. It’s “wing” arms are reduced into fins once again though.
From here I split elder dragons into two main groups. Winged elder dragons, which continued to develop their paired dorsal fins into powerful limbs that could be useful for flight, and Drakes, which lost their paired dorsal fins. I’ll start with drakes first since it’s the smaller group.
Eruzerion, Kulve, and Lao I felt seemed to be a sort of natural progression from a semi-sprawling almost fanged wyvern-like bauplan to a more erect posture. Eruzerion and Kulve also have sprawled forearms, massive curled horns, and powerful heat/fire abilities. Lao is the most derived of the three existing members of the group, and Kulve is likely closer to Eruzerion than it is to Lao. Kulve’s golden mantle supports my theory that the world of monster hunter is incredibly mineral rich, as its mantle and the habitat it’s initially found in likely has more gold than our entire earth does alone. The world of monster hunter would have to have such massive amounts of minerals if there’s many geovorous organisms and dragons like Kulve running around with mantles made of several hundred thousand pounds of gold just for display. I know Lao is canonically close to Zorah, but I’m obviously not following canon and I can’t really see many similarities between them aside from them being “the big omnipedal kaiju dragons”. There’s some subtle differences in their anatomy, and Lao lacks wings while Zorah has vestigial ones.
Inagami is interesting as it could work in many places in the drake family, and might even be a distant Kirin relative. It could work as a distant Lao relative, but I put it as a sister group to ocean drakes (although I’m starting to second guess this decision).
Tartaronis is the last remaining member of a sister group to all existing ocean drakes, and is incredibly derived. Several million years ago when the sea levels were higher they might have lived in shallow seas. As the sea levels dropped they might have switched to swimming in the sand.
Ceadeus is probably a textbook ocean drake and the only existing one that’s still aquatic. I have it as a sister group to the Mohrans. I used goldbeard’s icon since goldbeards are implied to be adults.
There’s not much to say about the Mohrans other than the fact they too live in the sand like Tartaronis, quite likely for similar reasons. They probably use sonic frequencies to liquifact the sand so they can swim through it.
Amatsu and the sky serpents Narwa and Ibushi are sister genre, although they’re still probably quite distant. The sky serpents seem to lack tongues, although I think their pharyngeal jaws might be derived from their tongues. Given the fact that Amatsu makes whale-like calls, the serpents communicate via ultrasound, and the Mohrans might use sound to make sand easy to swim through, sonic communication might have been ancestral to ocean drakes. It’s become lost in Amatsu and repurposed in the Mohrans and Tartaronis.
Over on the other side of the tree, I placed Rukodiora and Harudomerugu as the most basal winged dragons. Their wings seem to still be relatively simple in anatomy, although whether or not this is a basal or derived trait, I could not tell you. What makes them really stand out though, is that they have multiple paired dorsal fins. Their ancestors likely acquired a series of mutations that allowed this trait to manifest. Somnacanth also has several paired dorsal fins too, so something similar could have happened.
Nergigante, the Jiivas, and the black dragons I’ve grouped together as a very unique group due to their power and regeneration. The ancestral dragon of this group was likely a dragon that specialized in hunting other elder dragons. Access to such nutritious prey and bountiful amounts of bioenergy would allow for the evolution of incredibly fast and extensive regeneration as well as powerful elemental abilities. Eventually some members switched to subsisting off of bioenergy alone (such as the Jiivas) and might have searched for habits rich in bioenergy. The black dragons are the culmination of this increasing trend of absurdly powerful predatory dragons that subsist mostly off of bioenergy and go to the most remote locations in search of this resource. They likely don’t have very high population densities, and might be so rare that they might have opted out of reproducing sexually and instead switched to several asexual methods. Given that Alatreon and Merphistophelin have access to all elements and are representatives of the two major black dragon families, the ancestral black dragon might have been the same. With only later black dragons like fatalis specializing for a single element. I know fatalis is canonically the ancestor of all dragons, and while I don’t agree with this statement, I can see why people would think so. Its lizard-y look, mysterious nature, incredible power, and long lifespan would give the impression of a sort of ancestral god.
The rest of the dragons are in a group with each other largely because I can’t find a good place to put them. It’s a largely wastebasket taxon, but there are some groupings within it.
The Magalas and Gog share obvious ancestry.
I placed Shara with Valstrax as a relative because you can see something come out of shara’s fingers and something is lighting up in shara’s triceps. Shara also has holes in its chest that could lead to a massive respiratory system like valstrax. So both might be united under a branching respiratory system that opens up in their chest and fingers. Valstrax adapted it for combustion and Shara for burrowing.
Kushala is well… Kushala. There’s not any other existing elder dragon with an exoskeleton. Interestingly, some Kushala Daora mutate and become Garuba Daora.
Guanzoroumu I have placed with Egyurasu because there’s an interesting theory that @eightleggedfiend suggests, and said theory is why I omitted Egyurasu from my flying wyvern cladogram. There is good reason to believe that Egyurasu are actually juvenile Guanzoroumu. They share way too many anatomical similarities for their similar appearance to be convergent evolution, and there’s not many good reasons why a powerful elder dragon would allow smaller less powerful monsters to constantly encircle it. Some elders have been known to go through drastic life changes, so maybe Guanzoroumu and Egyurasu are another example of that.
Initially I grouped Chameleos with Zorah since they both have a single large nasal horn, fat tails and lizard like hands (I know the only limbs with lizard hands on Zorah are it’s wings, but the other ones could have lost their lizard-ness as an adaptation for weight bearing). But eightleggedfiend changed my mind. They backed up the canon idea of namielle being related to chameleos by mentioning both of them are EDs with bioluminescence, color changing abilities, and control over electricity.
The Stras are a sister species to Toa Tesukatora in this tree (canonically they’re the direct descendant of Toa but given their wildly different elemental powers I doubt it). The Stras have the fastest land speed of any elder dragon for their size.
Vaal and Velkhana form a group in the cladogram. I put the Vs together due to their similar torso and limb build, tapering tails, and hoods on their neck. Vaal actually has a small hood if you look close, and so does Velk too (in fact that’s where most of its ice crown sits). Vaal is obviously more derived though.
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