Suna's pre-timeskip volleyball skill analysis
First off, Suna is acknowledged by Ukai as one of the main point-getters of Inarizaki. Then, the old man on the bench analyzed how Suna could manipulate other opponents/middle blockers using his torso and wide range of spikes. Apart from his blocking abilities, this is his most noticeable skill - so I could infer he became one of Inarizaki's main point-getters for this reason.
The reason why his special spike scores effectively was because of its wide range. If middle blockers could block the direction where Suna spikes, they forget the position - Suna then spikes to the side of their arms or above it. Middle blockers have to read through and eliminate all possibilities of his spikes, which, given the range and unpredictability of Suna's spiking positions, proves impossible. Middle blockers mostly block straight, so stopping Suna's spikes on the side requires high level of technique.
The key to his successfully spike is normal blocking from the opponent's middle blockers. Since his spikes are different from normal spikes, they require different blocking strategies, and using normal blocking strategies won't work. Suna is an average middle blocker who thinks and strategizes normally, so he could understand, predict, and manipulate what other middle blockers would do, who the middle blockers will be. He would lure them into a vulnerable blocking position that ensures his special spikes get through. For example: In Tsukki and Kageyama's blocks, Kageyama blocks on the left. Any normal spikers would spike on the right where space is most ample. However, Suna chose beforehand to spike above Kageyama's arms (as seen in him waiting for Kageyama to jump), which was completely unexpected. If he spikes on the right, good blockers would trace his moves and stop him there. He knows Kageyama would jump because Tsukki's blocks has too many open areas, and no matter where Kageyama jumps, left or right of him, Suna will spike above his arms.
It is due to practicing his knowledge to manipulate blocks that Suna becomes a good middle blocker. The knowledge is ingrained in his instincts, and he instinctively knew what the opponent spiker is going to do. As Ukai said, he has something akin to the sixth sense. This is why his blocking time is fast and he knows where and who to block: Tanaka. Tanaka is one of the main aces of Karasuno, and Inarizaki's job is to shut. him. down. Tanaka uses force, but with unvaried techniques, so middle blockers could shut him down easily if they mitigate the forces of his spikes. Middle blockers know how daunting being blocked could be, and Tanaka is easy to block, so Inarizaki's job is to shut him down every single time. No one-touches. Make sure the ball goes down to ensure the biggest blows on his mental capacity.
However, Suna's spikes only works well with read blockers.
Guess blockers, such as Tendou, focuses on Suna's behavior to determine what he is most likely to do. He does not focus on eliminating where Suna cannot spike, he focuses on how Suna will spike. Since the objective evidences about the ball and player's position will leave out too much possibilities, he chooses to analyze a player's movement, past actions, and body language to form a concrete conclusion. However, since signals aren't clear and body language are not universal, whether he is right or not relies entirely up to chance. but he has practiced his instincts and game sense to make sure he could interpret the player's strategies and chance will favor him as much as possible. So he could get a few correct blocks out of Suna's spikes and the longer Suna uses them, the better Tendou can figure him out.
How Suna is unpredictable to blockers is how Tendou is unpredictable to spiders. How Suna perceives blockers is how Tendou perceives spikers. Manipulating Tendou is notoriously difficult for Suna, and interpreting Suna is downright tricky for Tendou. No one knows what the other does next, unpredictability above unpredictability. Suna is daunted by Tendou and Tendou is daunted by Suna. They dislike each other, because they are such a pain in the ass standing in the way of each other's jobs. Tension's high. And any of Tendou's successful spikes only worsens it. Since Tendou could not exactly figure out where Suna will spike, he decides to one-touch it, to make sure what trajectory of the ball Suna has in his mind will be undone. Had Tendou caught up to Suna? Has Tendou figured him out? How to figure Tendou out faster? Suna has to change blocking strategies and positions of blocking, preserve the crucial unpredictability to score. Because apart from his special spike and excellent blocker skills, he has few else in his arsenal.
"A block that isn't scary is not called a block." And Tendou's blocks, though they cannot shut Suna's ball down, had Suna tiptoeing round the edges. One-touches can be as daunting to spikers.
Suna has one weakness - he doesn't use a wide range of tactics either. His arsenal focuses around his special spikes, and that meant if those tactics are successful, he will continuously use them. Maybe position changes, maybe where to spike. But the principle of using his torso to expand his spiking range is the same. Suna has good tactics, but there is a reason why the stats only say his game sense is 3/5. He has in-the-moment tricks up his sleeves, but he is not a long term strategist who analyzes the overall nature of the game like setters. He knows what middle blockers think, but he doesn't think differently from them, and think far, like Tsukki or Tendou.
Tsukki has figured this out.
The reason why Suna's spikes work well on "good middle blockers" is because he is a good middle blocker too, so he uses his knowledge to get past them and manipulate them. Good blockers will block where he wants to block. Good middle blockers will try to block.
Tsukki does not try to block.
He had figured out, although Suna's spikes are difficult to the middle blocker, receivers can adjust to it given they utilize the time it takes for the ball to travel to their spot. On first try, Daichi successfully received it despite never being used to these spikes before (not that good of a receive but he successfully kept the ball up). On second and third try, Tsukki discovered a pattern - if Tsukki kept on unsuccessfully blocking Suna's spikes, Suna will repeat such spikes again, in the same positions, in the same directions. It's laughably simple, but offers an important insight to blocking him. Daichi could adjust to Suna's spikes, and Tsukki's job became "making sure Suna spikes in a trajectory easy for Daichi to receive". Tsukki has to manipulate his blocks a little to make sure the ball's direction is not too difficult to receive, but Suna will keep on blocking in the same positions, in the same directions, and any unpredictability is eliminated, and Suna no longer becomes a threat. Tsukki doesn't have to care about how Suna will spike - he will just be a red herring and receivers will figure out the rest.
And Suna, not thinking or strategizing far enough, fell for it. He's a simple man - he has tricks relying on his instincts which work for the moment, but not too far down the road. He has instincts which only works for the moment, which only understands how to get past blocks. He's never been a good receiver.
Tsukki refused to be interpreted. He refused to act, and to reveal critical information about his behavior to Suna. His strategy is the most effective - it offers no direct information about who Tsukki is like himself, and it is incredibly hard to spot, since that strategy's key is Tsukki's inaction, masked as the guise of "a bad blocker".
That leads to the iconic battle of cockiness between Suna and Tsukki:
"Thank you for helping me make such clean hits." - Suna
"Thank you for spiking exactly how I wanted you to every time." - Tsukki
Tsukki outsmarted him. Without figuring Suna out, Suna is figured out.
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