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Nasdaq Down -1.27% Today, Model Portfolio Up +0.46%

This is an update to our latest model portfolio report 36 Stocks for November 2017. A more detailed daily report is available on Seeking Alpha.

New Actions Required

Long model:Kohl's Corporation (KSS) reached a price target.*

Long model: Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) reached a price target.*

Short sale model: The Mosaic Company (MOS) reached a stop loss target.*

Short sale model: Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA) reached a stop loss target.*

*We intend to rebalance the model portfolio just prior to the close tomorrow, November 30. If these stocks pass our ranking process, the positions will be retained in the model portfolios at new initial equal weights.

Also of Note

The Nasdaq (QQQ) sold off -1.27% today, presumably on “profit taking.”

While 7 from the original 10 Tech and Materials stocks in our long model were hard hit, the overall Core Long Model portfolio finished +0.46% higher today.

MKS Instruments Inc. (MKSI) was the worst performer in the long model today, down -8.75%.

Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) was the best performer today, up +4.80%.

YY Inc. (YY), Kronos Worldwide, Inc. (KRO) and Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) -- which were down -6.97%, ,-4.24%, and -3.84%, respectively, today -- had previously reached price targets and had been replaced with cash positions. (See our recent write-ups on YY and KRO.)

Return Data

For the month to date the Core Long Model portfolio is up +5.03% on a simple cumulative return basis (sum of daily returns). This compares to the S&P 500 up +2.01%, the S&P 1500 Composite up +2.08%, and the Russell 2000 up +2.66%. The Core Long/Short Model is up +5.56%.

Presaging Major Sell Side Analyst Actions

MTD 12 stocks in the long model have received 34 positive price target revisions, and 6 stocks have received 8 ratings upgrades from sell side firms, led by Facebook, Inc. (FB).

MTD 5 stocks in the short sale model have received 17 negative price target revisions, and 5 stocks have received 8 ratings downgrades, led by Under Armour, Inc. (UAA).

Latest model portfolio returns and price targets and other details are available on our Seeking Alpha blog.

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Equity research and financial modeling consulting We provide independent equity research, budget forecasting, startup and corporate valuation, or general financial modeling consulting services, please contact us “steve at ascenderellc dot com” or via LinkedIn,

Please see our disclaimers and disclosures.

#$QQQ #$MKSI #$NSC #$YY #$KRO #$ANET #$FB #$UAA

Stocks in our model portfolio tend to presage major sell side analyst actions

35 Stocks for October 2017 Details of the latest model portfolio rebalancing may be found in our report, 35 Stocks for October 2017.

Model Portfolio Stocks Tend to Presage Ratings and Price Target Changes Stocks in our model portfolios tend to presage sell side analyst price target and ratings changes.

In other words, stocks selected in the long model seem to be often followed by subsequent upgrades, and stocks in the short sale model seem to be followed by subsequent downgrades.

This makes sense given that our model portfolio is composed of stocks demonstrating fundamental momentum to the upside or downside. By definition, momentum tends to be followed by additional momentum in the same direction.

When momentum fails, or simply experiences relative weakness, the stock is rebalanced out of the model portfolio.

Advanced Energy Industries Recently Upgraded by Needham Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. (AEIS) experienced a price target raise from Needham and is now leading the long model with a +6.38% return since the October 5 rebalancing.

Also of Note, Trinseo Reports Better Than Expected Preliminary 3Q17 Trinseo (TSE) reported better than expected preliminary 3Q17 results and raised guidance for 2017. The stock is up +3.03% in the long model.

Sell Side Upgrades and Downgrades Since October 5 Rebalancing The table below is a compilation of all sell side actions that we are aware of that have impacted our model portfolio stocks since the latest October 5 rebalancing.

October 2017 Returns to Date For the month to date of October 2017, the Core Long Model portfolio is up +1.42% on a simple cumulative return basis. This is ahead of the S&P 500 up +1.34% and the S&P 1500 Composite up +1.31%. The Core Long/Short Model is up +0.64%.

Our theoretical model portfolio is useful as a long-term stock picking list as well as a trading benchmark We rebalance our model portfolios every month. We also track 1-year returns of each rebalanced model, which have tended to do very well. We will post the one-year theoretical returns in a later note.

Please follow this link to our latest model portfolio update for a list of long and short sale model portfolio stocks, short-term price targets, as well as MTD returns since the last rebalancing action.

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Equity research and financial modeling consulting We provide independent equity research, budget forecasting, startup and corporate valuation, or general financial modeling consulting services, please contact us “steve at ascenderellc dot com” or via LinkedIn,

Please see our disclaimers and disclosures.

#$AEIS #$TSE #$^GSPC #$GSPC #$SPX #$SPY #Long/Short #Hedge Fund #Model portfolio #Financial Modeling #Portfolio #Stocks

Hess Corporation (HES) reaches short sale price target.

This is an update to our model portfolio report, 36 Stocks for March 2017.

A theoretical short sale position in HES reached its price target on Friday, March 10, 2017, and will be assumed closed at the end of trading on Monday, March 13, 2017.

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Equity research and financial modeling consulting We provide independent equity research, budget forecasting, startup and corporate valuation, or general financial modeling consulting services, please contact us “steve at ascenderellc dot com” or via LinkedIn,

Please see our disclaimers and disclosures.

#$HES #$TRCO #$FB #$AMTD #$SPY #$SPX #$^GSPC

Teradyne (TER) Reaches Price Target

This is an update to our model portfolio report, The Best 29 Stocks for 2017.

A theoretical long position in Teradyne (TER), up 12.44% MTD, reached our price target and will be assumed closed at the end of trading on Monday, January 30, 2017.

MTD, the theoretical Core and Opportunistic long models are up +3.45% versus the S&P 500 up +2.48% and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) up +2.42%.

For the month to date, the low-quality stocks in the theoretical Core Short Model portfolio are up +3.81% for the equivalent -3.81% assumed short sale gain.

The Opportunistic Short Model portfolio has assumed a 100% cash position since the January 4 close.

For the month to date, the theoretical Core Long/Short Model portfolio is down -0.36% and the theoretical Opportunistic Long/Short Model portfolio is down -2.11%.

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Equity research and financial modeling consulting We provide independent equity research, budget forecasting, startup and corporate valuation, or general financial modeling consulting services, please contact us “steve at ascenderellc dot com” or via LinkedIn,

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#$TER #$SPY #$^GSPC #model portfolio #hedge fund #long/short #GARP #growth at a reasonable price

Evercore Partners Inc. Apollo Global Management Reach Price Targets

This is an update to our model portfolio report, The Best 29 Stocks for 2017.

Theoretical positions in both theoretical long models, Evercore Partners Inc. (EVR) and Apollo Global Management LLC (APO), hit their price targets today January 26 and will be assumed closed at the end of trading tomorrow.

For the month to date, the theoretical long model portfolios are up +3.64% versus a +2.57% return in the S&P 500 and a +2.58% return in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

MTD, stocks in the theoretical Core Short Model portfolio are up 4.08% on average for the equivalent short sale loss. The Opportunistic Model Portfolio has assumed a 100% cash position since the January 4 close and retains its MTD loss of -5.56%.

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Equity research and financial modeling consulting We provide independent equity research, budget forecasting, startup and corporate valuation, or general financial modeling consulting services, please contact us “steve at ascenderellc dot com” or via LinkedIn,

Please see our disclaimers and disclosures.

#$EVR #$APO #$SPY #$^GSPC #hedge fund #long short #model portfolio

Qorvo, Inc. Hits Short Sale Stop Loss

This is an update to our model portfolio report, The Best 29 Stocks for 2017.

A theoretical short sale position in Qorvo (QRVO) hit a stop loss and will be assumed closed at the end of trading tomorrow.

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Equity research and financial modeling consulting If you require of independent equity research, budget forecasting, startup and corporate valuation, or general financial modeling consulting services, please contact us “steve at ascenderellc dot com” or via LinkedIn, SpareHire, or this website.

Please see our disclaimers and disclosures.

#$QRVO

Endo Pharmaceuticals (ENDP) Achieves Short Sale Price Target

This is an update to our model portfolio report, The Best 29 Stocks for 2017.

A position in Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc. (ENDP) reached its price target and will be assumed closed at the end of trading tomorrow within the theoretical Core Short Model portfolio. MTD the stock is down -20.64% for the equivalent theoretical short sale gain.

The theoretical Opportunistic Short Model assumed a 100% cash position at the January 4 close.

Both theoretical long models are up +0.48% MTD versus a +1.30% increase in the S&P 500 and a +1.22% increase in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

The theoretical Long/Short Core Model is down -2.08% and the theoretical Opportunistic Long/Short Model is down -5.08% MTD.

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Equity research and financial modeling consulting If you require of independent equity research, budget forecasting, startup and corporate valuation, or general financial modeling consulting services, please contact us “steve at ascenderellc dot com” or via LinkedIn, SpareHire, or this website.

Please see our disclaimers and disclosures.

#$ENDP #$SPY #$^GSPC

Facebook (FB) Reaches Short-term Price Target

This is an update to our model portfolio report, The Best 29 Stocks for 2017.

A long position in Facebook, Inc. (FB) has reached its price target in our theoretical long model portfolios and will be assumed closed at the end of trading Monday, January 16, 2016.

A short position in Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) has hit a stop loss target and will be assumed closed at the end of trading on Monday.

MTD the theoretical Core and Opportunistic Long Model portfolios are up +2.22%. The S&P 500 is up +1.59% MTD and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up +1.57%.

Stocks in the theoretical Core Short Model portfolio are up 4.04% for the assumed equivalent short sale loss.

Stocks in the Opportunistic Short Model portfolio we assumed to be replaced with cash just prior to the close of January 4, 2016 locking in an assumed short sale loss of -5.56%.

The Long/Short Core Model and Long/Short Opportunistic Model portfolios are down -1.82% and -3.34% MTD, respectively.

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Equity research and financial modeling consulting If you require of independent equity research, budget forecasting, startup and corporate valuation, or general financial modeling consulting services, please contact us “steve at ascenderellc dot com” or via LinkedIn, SpareHire, or this website.

Please see our disclaimers and disclosures.

#$FB #$ADSK #$SPY #$^GSPC #hedge fund #model portfolio #GARP #growth at a reasonable price

Workday, Inc. (WDAY) Hits Stop Loss This is an update to our model portfolio report, The Best 29 Stocks for 2017.

A theoretical short sale position in Worday, Inc. (WDAY) hit its stop loss on January 6, 2016 and will be assumed closed at the end of trading on January 9, 2016.

This follows the January 5 stop losses in Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) and IAC/InterActive Corp. (IAC), whose positions were assumed closed on January 6.

Following the 2-day surge in low-quality stock prices, the theoretical Opportunistic Short Model portfolio has assumed a 100% cash position since the January 4, 2016 close. MTD the Opportunistic Long/Short Model portfolio is down -3.80% while the Core Long/Short Model portfolio is down -3.49%.

MTD the theoretical long-only strategies are up 1.76% while the S&P 500 is up 1.70%.

Unlike the Opportunistic model, the theoretical Core model does not use a portfolio cash allocation strategy. Both models utilize identical stock holdings.

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Equity research and financial modeling consulting If you require of independent equity research, budget forecasting, startup and corporate valuation, or general financial modeling consulting services, please contact us “steve at ascenderellc dot com” or via LinkedIn, SpareHire, or this website.

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#$WDAY #$BIDU #$IAC

Drew Industries (DW) changes name and ticker to LCI Industries (LCII).

This is an update to our model portfolio report, The Best 29 Stocks for 2017.

The above tables contain our latest short-term price targets and model portfolio returns of our theoretical models.

Low-quality stocks are continuing their surge in the new year, hurting the returns of our long/short strategies over the first two trading days of 2017.

Also note that Drew Industries (DW) has changed its name and ticker to LCI Industries (LCII).

Equity research and financial modeling consulting If you require of independent equity research, budget forecasting, startup and corporate valuation, or general financial modeling consulting services, please contact us “steve at ascenderellc dot com” or via LinkedIn, SpareHire, or this website.

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#$DW #$LCII #hedge fund #long/short #model portfolio #GARP #growth at a reasonable price

Hawaiian Holdings Inc. (HA) Reaches Long Price Target and Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) Attains Short Sale Price Target

This is an update to our model portfolio report, 28 Stocks for December 2016.

Hawaiian Holdings Inc. (HA) reached its price target today after a 12.6% MTD gain and the position will be assumed closed and replaced with cash at the end of trading tomorrow in the theoretical long model portfolios.

Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) hit its short sale price target today after a -11.64% decline and will be assumed closed and replaced with cash at the end of trading tomorrow in the theoretical short model portfolios.

MTD the theoretical long model portfolios are up +4.14% versus a +2.88% increase in the S&P 500. The theoretical short model portfolios are up +0.71%. The Long/Short Dollar Neutral theoretical model portfolio is up 3.43% MTD (+4.14% - 0.71% = +3.43%).

We assume theoretical short sales benefit inversely to declines in the the stock price.

Equity research and financial modeling consulting If you require of independent equity research, budget forecasting, startup and corporate valuation, or general financial modeling consulting services, please contact us “steve at ascenderellc dot com” or via LinkedIn, SpareHire, or this website.

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#$HA #$WYNN #$SPX #$^GSPC #hedge fund #model portfolio #long/short #GARP #growth at a reasonable price

Under Armour (UA) Hits Short Sale Target This is an update to our model portfolio report, 28 Stocks for December 2016.

Under Armour, Inc. (UA) achieved its short sale price target today and the position will be assumed closed and replaced with cash in the theoretical short sale model at the end of trading tomorrow. The stock is down -12.24% MTD for the equivalent short sale gain.

Three other stocks in the theoretical Short Model portfolios hit stop losses today -- these include Sensata Technologies Holding NV (ST), Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK), and Credit Suisse Group (CS). MTD these stocks are up +6.93%, +10.65%, and +16.42%, respectively, for the equivalent short sale losses.

MTD stocks in the long models are up +3.43% and stocks in the short model are up +1.58%. The corresponding long/short model portfolio is up +1.85% (3.43% -1.58% = 1.85%).

The S&P 500 is up +1.93% MTD.

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#$UA #$ADSK #$ST #$CS #$SPX #$^GSPC #hedge fund #model portfolio #stocks #long/short #growth at a reasonable price #GARP

Facebook, Inc. (FB) Is our Favorite Stock Idea for December 2016 This is an update to our model portfolio report, 28 Stocks for December 2016.

The above tables show price targets and return data for the latest theoretical model portfolios.

A stock in the theoretical short model portfolios has already hit a stop loss and was assumed closed at the end of trading today -- Pandora Media (P).

Facebook, Inc. (FB) is our favorite long stock idea for December 2016. As we illustrate in our model portfolio report, the company seems poised to generate a surge of earnings and ROIC for 2017.

On average, stocks in our models tend to work well as long-term ideas. We track one-year returns of each year-end model portfolio, and one-month of each newly model portfolio that is rebalanced monthly.

Contact us If you require of equity research, budget forecasting, startup and corporate valuation, or general financial modeling consulting services, please contact us “steve at ascenderellc dot com” or via LinkedIn, SpareHire, or this website.

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#$FB #$P #$SPX #$^GSPC #hedge fund #model portfolio #growth at a reasonable price #GARP

28 Stocks for December 2016

This is an update to last month's model portfolio report, 23 Stocks for November 2016.

Below are the latest rebalancing actions for the theoretical model portfolios that rebalances monthly. A full report will follow shortly.

Our favorite long idea for December 2016 is Facebook (FB).

Long Rebalancing Actions As of the November 30, 2016 close, 11 stocks have left the long-only model, 16 have been added, and 12 have rebalanced. The 28-stock-theoretical long model assumes a 3.57% weight for each stock. The long models are composed of high-quality stocks.

Close Long Positions American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NYSE:AEO) Lear Corporation (NYSE:LEA) Vipshop Holdings Limited (NYSE:VIPS) Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) CalAtlantic Group, Inc. (NYSE:CAA) ING Groep N.V. (NYSE:ING) Regions Financial Corporation (NYSE:RF) Masimo Corporation (NASDAQ:MASI) NetEase, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTES) VeriSign, Inc. (NASDAQ:VRSN) Vantiv, Inc. (NYSE:VNTV)

Hold/Rebalance Long Positions Apollo Global Management, LLC (NYSE:APO) Unum Group (NYSE:UNM) First Republic Bank (NYSE:FRC) United Therapeutics Corporation (NASDAQ:UTHR) ManpowerGroup Inc. (NYSE:MAN) Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) Copart, Inc. (NASDAQ:CPRT) Texas Instruments Incorporated (NYSE:TXN) Cirrus Logic, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRUS) Logitech International SA (NASDAQ:LOGI) Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT) Teradyne, Inc. (NYSE:TER)

Open Long Positions Drew Industries Incorporated (NYSE:DW) Gentex Corporation (NASDAQ:GNTX) Burlington Stores, Inc. (NYSE:BURL) Essent Group Ltd. (NYSE:ESNT) Evercore Partners Inc. (NYSE:EVR) Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:FITB) Bank of Hawaii Corporation (NYSE:BOH) Home Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:HOMB) Cathay General Bancorp (NASDAQ:CATY) State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT) Hawaiian Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:HA) A. O. Smith Corporation (NYSE:AOS) EMCOR Group, Inc. (NYSE:EME) HP Inc. (NYSE:HPQ) InterDigital, Inc. (NASDAQ:IDCC) Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB)

Short Rebalancing Actions As of the November 30, 2016 close, 16 stocks have left the short-only models, 14 have been added and 11 have been rebalanced. This 25-stock theoretical model assumes an equal 4.00% weight for each stock. This short model is composed of low-quality stocks and only tends to work well during periods of high uncertainty or volatility in the market.

During November 2016, many low-quality stocks rallied as the market priced in expectations for a sharp recovery in fundamentals related to the pro-business stance that Donald Trump is expected to take after his January 20, 2017 inaugeration.

Close Short Sale Positions Liberty Global plc (LBTY.A) Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (NYSE:PAG) Newell Brands Inc. (NYSE:NWL) Ctrip.com International Ltd. (NASDAQ:CTRP) Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (NYSE:ADM) Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CLR) Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO) ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NYSE:NOV) WPX Energy, Inc. (NYSE:WPX) CIT Group Inc. (NYSE:CIT) Tesaro, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSRO) Blackbaud, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLKB) Cimpress N.V. (NASDAQ:CMPR) NXP Semiconductors NV (NASDAQ:NXPI) FMC Corporation (NYSE:FMC)

Hold/Rebalance Long Positions Under Armour, Inc. (NYSE:UA) Tribune Media Company (NYSE:TRCO) Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (NYSE:LGF) ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:ACAD) Sensata Technologies Holding NV (NYSE:ST) Flowserve Corporation (NYSE:FLS) Joy Global Inc. (NYSE:JOY) Fortinet, Inc. (NASDAQ:FTNT) Tableau Software, Inc. (NYSE:DATA) Pandora Media, Inc. (NYSE:P) United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X)

Open Short Sale Positions Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ:WYNN) Canadian Natural Resources Limited (NYSE:CNQ) Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE:CS) Legg Mason, Inc. (NYSE:LM) Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:RARE) Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALNY) Endo International plc (NASDAQ:ENDP) Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:AGIO) Avis Budget Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:CAR) Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. (NYSE:JEC) Terex Corporation (NYSE:TEX) Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) Qorvo, Inc. (NASDAQ:QRVO) Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK)

Contact us If you require of equity research, budget forecasting, startup and corporate valuation, or general financial modeling consulting services, please contact us via LinkedIn, SpareHire, or this website.

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#$FB

Apollo Global Management, LLC Reaches Long Price Target, Sensata Technologies Holding NV Reaches Short Sale Stop Loss

This is an update to our model portfolio report, 23 Stocks for November 2016.

A long position in Apollo Global Management, LLC (APO) reached its price target today and will be assumed closed and replaced with cash at the end of the next day of trading.

A short sale position in Sensata Technologies Holding NV (ST) hit a stop loss and will also be assumed closed the next day of trading, which is Friday, November 25, 2016.

For the month to date, stocks in the theoretical Core Long Model are up 5.68% and stocks in the theoretical Core Short Model are up 7.51% for the equivalent short sale loss of -7.51%. The equivalent Long/Short Core Model is down 1.83% for the month.

The Opportunistic Long/Short Model, which uses the same basket of stocks as the Core model but adds additional cash allocation rules, is up 0.64% for the month to date (+6.20% -5.57% = +0.64%).

Contact us If you require of equity research, budget forecasting, startup and corporate valuation, or general financial modeling consulting services, please contact us via LinkedIn, SpareHire, or this website.

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#$APO #$ST #$SPX #$GSPC #hedge fund #GARP #growth at a reasonable price #equity research #financial modeling

Manpower Inc. (MAN) Reaches Price Target

This is an update to our model portfolio report, 23 Stocks for November 2016.

A position in Manpower Inc. (MAN) reached a price target in our theoretical long model portfolio at the November 22 close and will be assumed closed at the end of trading today, November 23.

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#$MAN

$MAS Hits Price Target

This is an update to our model portfolio report, 23 Stocks for November 2016.

Masimo Corporation (MASI) hit a price target in our theoretical long model portfolio yesterday and was assumed closed and replaced with cash at the end of the close today.

For the month to date, 5 out of 23 stocks in the theoretical Core Long Model portfolio have hit price targets this month while 14 out of 27 stocks in the theoretical Core Short Model portfolio have been stopped out with only 1 hitting a short sale price target.

The theoretical Core Long/Short Model is down -1.42% for the month, with a significant gain in the long model being more than offset than losses in the short model (+5.51% -6.93% = -1.42%).

The theoretical Opportunistic Long/Short Model is up 0.48%, benefiting from a 100% cash allocation in the short model that was put in place at the November 11 close as well as a favorable 70%/30% stocks/cash weighting in the long model for the first 3 days of the month (+6.03% -5.55% = +0.48%).

In contrast, the S&P 500 is only up +2.87% MTD.

Both the Core and Opportunistic models use the same basket of stocks, but the Opportunistic additionally incorporate asset allocation rules that applies portfolio-wide weights between stocks and cash.

Stocks in our models are continuing to rise in anticipation of a pro-business actions from President-elect Trump. The prices of steel stocks, like U.S. Steel (X), may be getting an extra boost given their previously depressed stock prices, and because Dan DiMicco, former CEO of Nucor (NUE), was recently put in charge of Donald Trump’s transition team at the Office of the U.S. Trade.

#$MASI #$NUE #$X #$SPX #$GSPC

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