Obligatory disclaimer that mocking Charlie Kirk is both fun and harmless, but I am getting a little sick of the repetitive assertions that there's no reason to avoid giving ammunition to the regime because "they're just going to do what they'd do anyway." It's a disturbingly full-throated rejection of realist political analysis that we really cannot do with at this point. It's not that I don't get the impulse — we need a win, and this might feel like one! — but if you look with clear and rational eyes, this assassination is not good news for the left.
I know it doesn't feel like it, but the U.S. government really is affected by public opinion to some degree. Authoritarian regimes are not easy to run and widespread support makes the process much simpler. It's unsustainable for ICE to deal with angry crowds whenever they try to snatch people off the street. Protests are expensive and politically sharp. Ideological allies worried about their image will readily change their stance when the wind starts blowing a different direction.
All that is to say that when a political activist is murdered, the average person om the ground wants to distance themselves from that. Many people, likely most, don't know who Charlie Kirk is! All they're seeing is a young right-wing speaker being assassinated, and that will tilt their modes of thinking towards "conservatives are victims." It doesn't matter that they're wrong, what matters is that it happens, and to some unquantifiable degree it changes people's minds.
Likewise, there's a rally-round-the-flag effect for politically powerful conservatives. Suddenly there's a flash of danger, and they huddle closer together. We see less pushback, less friction, within the Republican party. Disgruntlement over, for instance, bombing a boat lessens in the face of a shared tragedy. These things do, in fact, make it easier for further repressive measures to be passed. There's less debate, more resolve.
Thinking it's all meaningless, that the administration would take the same actions no matter what, betrays a lack of understanding of political pressures and calculus. If they're going to make things worse anyway, why aren't they doing it right now? They have to wait, find the right time, gather support, make excuses. We want that process to be as difficult as possible for them. We want their gears jammed, not greased.
This assassination was almost certainly not a good thing on net. Your schadenfreude, gratifying though it may be, is not worth the real political consequences. The death of a single individual, who did not make policy, has negligible positive results. By all means, laugh — he's not getting any deader! — but don't make the mistake of thinking that assassinations are a mechanism to actually, efficaciously combat American fascism. Don't fall into the trap of equating "something must be done" with "anything must be done." Counterproductivity is real and dangerous.
