Matters Arising

[mattersarising]

Baseball

(HEATHER and STEPHANIE are sitting in the stands of Yankee Stadium)

HEATHER

Do you think Alex is going to hit his 600th home run tonight?

STEPHANIE

I don’t really care about that.  I’m here to see Jeter...

HEATHER

How can you not care?  Six hundred home runs is historic.

STEPHANIE

It’s historic for guys who did it without taking steroids.  Not for guys who did.

HEATHER

Wow, that’s harsh.

STEPHANIE

It’s like saying a guy who dunks on a five foot basket is doing something great.  You can’t cheat and get rewarded.

HEATHER

But plenty of other guys did steroids without being able to hit six hundred home runs.

STEPHANIE

But there are clearly guys who did not take steroids who hit six hundred, and it’s not fair to put any cheaters in the same category.   Babe Ruth did not take steroids.

HEATHER

How do you know?  Maybe he took something...

STEPHANIE

All he took was hot dogs and beer.  They didn’t have steroids in the thirties.  

HEATHER

Yeah, that’s true.  Same for Willie Mays... he didn’t take steroids.

STEPHANIE

Exactly.  So to see Barry Bonds on the top of the all time home run list is an insult to Hank Aaron... and the Babe, and Willie Mays...

HEATHER

How about the Hall of Fame?

STEPHANIE

Maybe we can start a hall of fame for cheaters.

HEATHER

That would be a big hall...

STEPHANIE

Yeah...

HEATHER

So you wouldn’t put any of these guys into the Hall of Fame?  Rodriguez, Sosa, McGwire?

STEPHANIE

None of those guys.  Keep them out, put in Griffey, Jeter, guys like that...

HEATHER

I never knew you were such a passionate fan.

STEPHANIE

The whole point of baseball is its history.  If you can’t compare todays’ guys to former players, the whole thing is a waste of time.

HEATHER

How about in other areas?  Like, am I cheating by using electricity, when two hundred years ago they didn’t have electricity?

STEPHANIE

Are you serious?

HEATHER

I’m just asking....

STEPHANIE

I don’t even know how to answer that.

HEATHER

It was just a question.

STEPHANIE

Okay, whatever...

(The End)

[mattersarising]

TONY and BARACK

(TONY, CEO if British Petroleum and  BARACK, POTUS, are on a couch in the White House.  In front of them is a large bottle of scotch).   BARACK I hear you’ve got the well capped.   TONY It would appear that way.   BARACK What does that mean?   TONY Well, by all appearances, it appears that we’ve capped the well.   BARACK So... is it capped or isn’t it?   TONY Oh indeed it is.  Indeed.  The well, as it is, is quite definitely capped.   BARACK And no oil is leaking?   TONY Oh.  Oh...  no...  no.... I didn’t say that...  wait...  are you by any chance referring to the well, per se, as in the well that we drilled, when you ask about oil leaking?   BARACK Of course... what else would I be referring to?   TONY Well – there is the ocean floor itself...   the sea bed itself... for example, around the well.   BARACK Oh.     TONY Yes.   BARACK So...  you’re saying that there is oil leaking from there?   TONY Me?  No not all... so far I haven’t said anything of the sort.   BARACK I see.   TONY That’s quite a large bottle of fine Scottish whiskey you have there.   BARACK Yes.  Yes it is.   TONY Perhaps we should have some?   (The End)

[mattersarising]

Volcano, Day Two

(JON and SVEN are at a hotel bar)

JON What if this volcano keeps erupting?

SVEN Yah, I was thinking about that...  maybe I should take a boat home.

JON Wow... a boat...

SVEN Yah...  like in the old days...  when they didn’t have airplanes and things of that nature...

JON Wow... yah...  like we’d be returning to the old days...  where it took like a week to get to Europe...

SVEN Yah...  they’d enter by the water, and then take trains, or horses...

JON Wow.  Yah, trains...   I don’t think we’re back to horses yet...

SVEN Yah....  but it makes you think...  how good are your trains here in the US?

JON Not so good.  None of our infrastructure is very good.

SVEN Yah – but what if you really can’t take airplanes any more? JON That would be something.

SVEN Yah...

JON I wonder if our missiles would still work.

SVEN Your missiles? JON Yeah...  we have all these intercontinental ballistic missiles...  I wonder how they’d still do if there was all this volcanic ash in the air.

SVEN Really?  That’s the first thing you think about?  Missiles?

JON Well... not the first thing...

SVEN You Americans...

(The End)

[mattersarising]

ok all better...

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/01/21/obama.oath/index.html Obama retakes oath of office after Roberts' mistake

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- President Obama retook his oath of office Wednesday after Chief Justice John Roberts flubbed while delivering it at Tuesday's inauguration.

Barack Obama is pictured at the inauguration on Tuesdayin Washington as Michelle Obama watches.

Roberts administered the oath the second time as well, according to the White House.

The move was aimed at dispelling any confusion that might arise from Tuesday's take and erase any question that Obama is legally the president.

Roberts made no comment on becoming tongue-tied Tuesday. 

[mattersarising]

Oaths

Inauguration day.

So it really does appear that Chief Justice Roberts messed up the oath.  

The problem is the Constitution says this about the Prez taking power:

"Before he enter on the Execution of his Office, he shall take the following Oath or Affirmation:--''I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.''

So by not taking the Oath as written, one can say he did not take the Oath, and therefore cannot enter on his Office.

Oh wellz that is life.

Careless Chief Justice.

[mattersarising]

George Bush's New Year's Resolutions for 2009

1. Move out of White House

2. Send out forwarding address cards.  Avoid sending one to Cheney.

3. Make sure liquor bottles are thrown out.  And that stash of coke in the panel inside the desk.  Get rid of that.

4. Give Condi a good-bye present.  If you know what I'm sayin'... and I knowz you do.

5. Write one of them books -  Point out casualties in Iraq decreased in 2008, so the surge must have worked.  Avoid mentioning casualties are up in Afghanistan.  Who goes to Afghanistan anyhowz?)

6. Buy some land up there in Canada, in case this global warming thing turns out to be true.   

7. Avoid dad and all of his "I told you so's".  He can be so annoying.

8. Avoid travel - don't want to get arrested as a "war criminal."  Crazy international people and their international law.

9. Work on Presidential Library.  What is a library for - do people actually go to these things?  

10. Check 401K.  Consider moving $$ out of Lehman Brothers.

11. Re-Read biography of Herbert Hoover.

12. Write the Obaminator a good-luck note.  Haha boyz will he needz it. 

[mattersarising]

clinton as secretary of state

Ok how can the Obaminator spend the entire Primary Season pointing out how wrong Hillary Clinton was on Iraq....   essentially winning the nomination by impugning her Foreign Policy judgement.   And then.  Once elected to be President.  Selecting her to be SECRETARY OF STATE of all things.

I mean

That makes zero sense.

[mattersarising]

Smoking gun:   Okay... so MAYBE a sister can be that affectionate with her little brother.  But what boyfriend in the world, or even what fiance in the world, shows that sort of affection to his girlfriend's little baby brother...  unless that baby brother is his SON.

[mattersarising]

Speak to the Son

So it turns out that Vice Presidential Candidate Palin has a son.

Her eldest son.  His name is Track.

Track Palin joined the army on September 11 of last year... or around seven months before his latest sibling was born.

He got out of town.

I'm thinking that this guy Track knows the deal, and that someone should chat with him.   So... yeah...

There's this other thing about this guy Track...  when the Anchorage newspaper ran the story about him joining the Army, they said he did so for "undisclosed reasons". 

So perhaps some enterprising reporter can track down Track, and see what he has to say about things.

[mattersarising]

Medical Records

Are the members of the press going to scrutinize Vice Presidential Candidate Palin's Medical Records?

Will they determine whether she is in fact the mother of her claimed fifth child?  There should be more than just a Birth Certificate.  We need to see the full history of this pregnancy.

Oh, and who really boards an airplane AFTER their water breaks, to travel for several hours, to then go off into the woods or whatever, and to give birth alone.

I mean, who does that?

Medical Records.  

The only real proof of parentage by the way is the DNA.

Yeah, let's see that. 

[mattersarising]

McCain and Presidential Judgment

Presidential Candidate McCain used to have quite a powerful argument against his challenger candidate Obama.

McCain pointed out that he had a lot more experience, and opined that this greater experience therefore clearly indicated that his judgment as President would be better.

Perhaps due to this matter, when it came time for his first Presidential decision, choosing his running mate, candidate Obama did not make a hasty choice.  Obama and his campaign staff went through what has been described as one of the most thorough vetting processes ever.  They asked for a mountain of documents.  They took their time.  

And then, when they were done, the Obama campaign came up with Senator Biden, a man who had run for President a couple of times, and who was found to be Presidential...  a guy who complemented Obama's perceived weaknesses....  a choice people seem to have found to be sound.

Then came McCain's turn.  If anything, McCain could have argued that the choice of Biden simply highlighted the original matter about lack of experience, since Obama went out of his way to find such an experienced, inside-the-beltway person.

But instead of highlighting the matter, McCain negated it by choosing someone with even less experience in Governor Palin - someone who has been governor of an almost unpopulated state for less than two years.

Okay that is a point - but perhaps you can still argue that the Obama deficit is worse, since he is actually the Presidential candidate.

But.

Then.

All of these revelations have come out about Palin.   First Troopergate.  Then the fact that her daughter is currently pregnant.  About five months pregnant.  And this had not been previously revealed.

And now, you have to ask, what kind of vetting did McCain do?  

According to reports, now much of a vetting.  No one can find a Republican in the state of  Alaska who was queried concerning Palin by the McCain campaign.

And it's not like there are that many people to talk to.  Maybe there are 11 people.

So this is no longer a Palin thing.  It is a McCain matter.   This choice of a Vice Presidential Candidate, when you are 72, and have had cancer 4 times, and have to really really be careful that your choice could function as President... and when you are trying to make the point that you know how to make decisions whereas your opponent does not...   this choice matters.  It matters a lot.   So how could McCain make the choice without even the most basic vetting?  

That is the matter.  

So it seems McCain no longer has his best argument against Obama, that he is better at making Presidential-level decisions than his challenger.  

He is worse.  A lot worse.

Really not so good.

[mattersarising]

Probabilities and Palin

So here is sort of a math point, using this current Babygate matter.

You start out with a highly improbable story, that the Vice-Presidential Candidate and current governor Palin is not the mother of her claimed fifth child, but the grandmother, and that Palin actually fabricated this tory, faking her pregnancy.  The actual mother of the baby, so the tale went, was Palin's then-16-year-old daughter, Bristol.

Now such an improbable tell carries with it several premises, which at the time of the tale were unverified.

Anyway, to refute this improbable tale, the McCain campaign yesterday explained that the daughter, Bristol Palin, could not have been the mother of the previous baby, who was born April 18th, 2008, because she is actually pregnant now, in early September.

How pregnant is she?  She is claimed to be "around five months pregnant."

Okay, so back to basic probability.    Here's the question: does the new story make the old story less or more likely?

With the new story we have verification of several previously unproven premises:

1) That Palin's daughter Bristol was having pre-marital sex

2) That Palin's daughter Bristol was not using birth control, or was engaging in a form of birth control that allowed for pregnancy 

3) That Palin's daughter Bristol was fertile.

The "big point" is whether the new story  disproves the old story by making it "impossible" or even "unlikely" or "less likely" that Bristol is the mother of both children.  For this point, one just has to look at a calendar, and understand fertility.  If you have a child on April 18th, you can in fact ovulate soon after.  As soon as two weeks, but perhaps more commonly a month after.   In either of these scenarios, you can certainly become pregnant again, and be "around five months" pregnant by September.

So this does not work as a refutation.  In contrast, the new story makes the old, rather crazily improbable story much much more likely, because it verifies some critical points.

Given all of this, why on earth would the McCain and Palin campaign put out this new story as an answer, as a refutation, to the previous story?

Only time will tell.

[mattersarising]

The kid is off limits - but not Palin

Okay well here is another matter about this babygate thing.

Presidential candidate Obama, when asked about the matter, said that families and children are off limits.

Fair enough.

No one should go around criticizing the families of the candidates - especially minors.

okay we get that.

But this is not about that.  This babygate thing.  This is about the Vice Presidential Candidate Palin, and whether or not she is a crazy person.

Here's the matter that is arising: she is being accused of being this fifth kid's grandmother, not the mom - and to rebut that she released the fact that her daughter was pregnant.

So, her argument goes, since the daughter is "around five months" pregnant,  the daughter can't also be the mother of this other kid, who was born 18 April.

Now that just is not true, if you do the math.  That does not work as a rebuttal.  It quite feasible to have given birth in the middle of April, and still be "around five months" pregnant on 1 September... 

So this matter has nothing to do with the daughter or the daughter's choices; this has to do with Vice Presidential Candidate Palin, and whether she in fact has a response that is... you know... responsive... and which works as a refutation.

Because if it does turn out that the Vice Presidential Candidate constructed some elaborate lie, that would seem to be a relevant point in this campaign deal.

Just sayin'...

[mattersarising]

Bear with us...

Hmm not to start out by being overly political, but are you aware of this Babygate thing?

This seems to be a matter arising.

Why?

Okay... because of this odd tale, that the Republican VP-candidate Palin's fifth child, born 18 April 2008 may not have been her child, but might instead have been her grandchild... the actual offspring of the candidate's daughter.

Okay... so that tale seemed like a silly matter...  Implausible.

So now it is revealed that said daughter is pregnant.  Five months pregnant.  But. Here is the thing.   This being September 1st and all, 2008, the dates would still work that the daughter could have had both kids.  'cause if she gave birth on 18 April, she could have become pregnant as early as 2 May or so...  and that would mean 17 weeks... or almost five months.

So there you go.

The new pregnancy does not disprove the prior matter.  And.  What is more.  It seems to make it more plausible, since the fact that daughter is pregnant now establishes she is having the unprotected sex and is capable of producing an offspring.  So... there.  

Oh... and...  the daughter was out-of-sight during Palin's fifth pregnancy.  Mononucleosis.  8 months of mono.   Ok that is an odd matter.

Mono doesn't last 8 months.

Mono lasts like three weeks.

And...

Palin did not look pregnant at all when she was "pregnant".

So anyhow, right off the bat, How is all that for a weird matter?

Right off the bat and all.