This is kind of the point though, they’re both right and they’re both wrong, but I find myself more on Holdo’s side here.
“When I served under Leia, she would say, hope is like the sun. If you only believe in it when you can see it…”
One would imagine that once they were in the escape pods and out of danger, that’s when the plan would have presumably been revealed - when Crait was within sight.
The only reason this plan actually ended up failing in execution was because a recently-demoted pilot took it upon himself to stage a mutiny and then spilled the beans about their getaway plan over the comm, where DJ overheard him and sold them out.
Holdo not telling Poe the plan was obviously the reason why he put his own plan into motion, so there is a pretty equal level of causation from Holdo and Poe as to why this all went south.
There’s an argument to be made that the crew would have worked better if the plan had just been said, but Holdo’s philosophy (or, rather, her application of Leia’s philosophy) isn’t without merit either because, if all had gone to plan, then the moment everything was revealed would be the moment they were out of danger - with no chance of them being discovered by the First Order. They’d have already succeeded, therefore the hope would have been real.
It’s worth noting as well that Rose stunned people who have attempted to desert, which is a very delicate situation to have to manage. What if one of them tries to contact the First Order to broker a deal that will sell out the Resistance in exchange for their own life?
It only takes one person to do that.
We also know that Leia wants Poe to become a leader and he needed to be put in a position where he has to put his faith in his commanding officer - it’s exactly the same position that he’ll one day be putting his own subordinates in so he has to know and understand the gravity of putting your life in somebody’s hands. It’s also worth noting that Holdo might have been more selective about the officers she told the plan to - like Commander D’Acy, who was supportive of Holdo. Connix not knowing isn’t necessarily indicative of Holdo telling nobody; Connix is a recently-promoted lieutenant which hardly makes her one of the senior officers present, as well as a seemingly relative unknown to Holdo.
Likewise, a plan that entirely revolves around stealth and remaining hidden is generally best not spread around for any and all potential risks - it’s Poe blabbing about Holdo fuelling up the transports to Finn, knowing that there is “a codebreaker” - as in, not the one Maz sent them to get - without any thoughts to the consequences of that which causes the plan to fail. It ends up being the one with good intentions who dooms the escape pods, not a traitor.
Poe’s behaviour from the very start of the film was out of line. He didn’t even listen to Leia when she told him to disengage from the Dreadnought, switching off his comm and proceeding to lose the Resistance’s entire bombing fleet in a pointless and futile attack. The First Order lost one Dreadnought - how many others do they have at their disposal, versus the cost of what it took for the Resistance to destroy it?
He presumed that he knew better than Leia and everyone else, quite honestly I think the most unrealistic thing in this sub-plot is that none of his fellow pilots have their faith and trust in him shaken by his actions, and that Holdo didn’t have him put in the brig because of how much of a liability he kept proving himself to be.
The situation was an exceptional one because the Resistance was at risk of losing everything. It certainly is arguable that Holdo should have said what her plan is because this is the last of the Resistance, but that would come with immense risk when people had already started trying to jump ship.
These are still people at the end of the day, some of whom will look to their own survival regardless of whether they know there’s a plan or not.
What if the First Order somehow finds out, just as they can do what was thought to be impossible and track the Raddus through lightspeed?
For some, having hope given to them when there’s every chance they will have it torn from them is worse than not having it at all and just doing your duty. The wrong kind of hope at the wrong time leaves room for doubt, which has the potential to undo everything.
At the start of the film, nobody expected Leia to say:
“Poe, we’ve got a limited supply of ships and pilots, and while the dreadnought is an open target, we can’t afford the resource cost and body count. What you don’t realise, Poe, is that we’re short on funding due to recent political turmoil–”
No. Leia simply ordered him to call off the attack, as is her prerogative as a military commander - that’s all she has to say. That’s how the chain of command works.
Why should this be any different with Holdo?
