Coalition Making, Coalition Breaking
We’ve all heard that in the US, Donald Trump is leading in polls among likely Republican voters.
But did you know that in Canada, Kevin O’Leary stands tied with Peter MacKay? Kevin O’Leary is almost a Canadian Donald Trump, a brash, anti-establishment businessman who became a household name by starring in a popular TV show. Peter MacKay led the Progressive Conservative party before its merger with Steven Harper’s Canadian Alliance and has held a variety of cabinet positions over the past decade. From the sidelines, Preston Manning practically begs the party he helped create to pick a leader who does more than communicate and entertain.
Right-wing parties are starting to deal with a problem that’s plague parties on the left for a while: the party intellectuals are out of step with the rank and file.
When I feel like shocking someone, I ask them if they know where the BNP’s support comes from. There’s a common (mis)conception that the support for so called far-right parties like the BNP largely come from Tories who don’t find their party radical enough. And certainly, they draw some support from that quarter. But it’s been known (although largely unacknowledged) for quite some time that the BNP gets its support largely from disaffected labour supporters. Two elections ago, someone decided to check this. They found that 59% of BNP supporters felt like labour used to care about them, but no longer does.
I see some of this tension in my own life. My friends are largely drawn from well-educated leftist circles – as you’d expect from a leftist who just graduated from university. My parents are educated, but they’re also somewhat traditional Catholics who have unionized jobs. They vote similarly to my friends, but their beliefs about what constitutes right behaviour are radically different. My friends are more queer and diverse than Canada as a whole. A few of us are in non-monogamous relationships. My parents didn’t take the whole poly thing well and I still haven’t told them that I make out with men from time to time. As far as I know, they have no friends who are queer and no friends who aren’t white.
If casual racism is avoided in my parents’ house, it’s out a belief that it’s a harmless but impolite thing. It’s seen as less worthy of rebuke than swearing.
I’m fairly certain that my parents have a reactionary streak. They care deeply about income inequality (and feel compelled to by their Catholic faith), but I think they believe that the parties they vote for are pushing the country in the wrong social direction. They see a country becoming more godless, queerer, less accepting of traditional gender roles and ideas of marriage and they really don’t like the changes.
The left has been running this balancing acts for a few decades. We have our big tent coalition: socially conservative unionized workers, socially conservative immigrants, university students and other young people, and socially liberal well-educated urban professionals. This group largely holds together, but you can see how it may lose members to other parties from time to time. Unionized workers go to parties that oppose immigration. Socially conservative immigrants go to parties with social platforms more in line with their values. Well-educated urban professionals go to parties that can promise to reduce their tax burden. Aside from an insignificant number of leftist intellectuals, the core constituency of the big tent left is young people.
The problem that the Conservative party of Canada and the Republican Party are now facing is similar to the one faced by the left, but perhaps direr: a large portion of their base is fed up with responsible conservatism.
As in the case of the ex-labour members in BNP, there is a sense among many members of the conservative grassroots that society is moving in the wrong direction and their party leaders care more about being respectable than standing up for their needs. The left has succeeded in moving the Overton Window such that many of the beliefs of the grassroots are not acceptable in polite society, essentially locking them out of mass media, but not out of informal discussion.
Basically, it’s becoming harder and harder to be openly sexist, racist, homophobic, xenophobic or transphobic.
The men of the conservative grassroots (and this is a movement largely of men) have seen erosion in their societal power. It used to be the deal that you could work hard and support a family on your salary. Now this is impossible. These men are lashing out on a society they feel has broken its promise to them, as well as all the symptoms of this change.
Responsible conservatism involves staying within the Overton window. In Canada, it also involves a certain amount of belief that the government can have a place at the table in solving collective action problems because as a whole Canadians are much more willing to trust the government to solve those problems for us.
The important point is the Overton window. You’ll note that several establishment Republican candidates have been clobbered in the polls because they’ve stood up to Trump’s disgusting rhetoric on Islam. Similar rhetoric from Canadian politicians may have cost the Conservatives the election – even as it played very well with their base.
The left went through these convulsions when we listened to our intellectuals and activists and began our project of shifting the Overton Window. This is the same project is what the right derisively refers to as “political correctness”. Insofar as “political correctness” improves outcomes that we care about, it seems mainly to revolve around making people feel more comfortable in society (a worthy goal in itself, but probably not enough by itself to unwind the massive persistent marginalization that many groups face).
But from a cynical perspective, there’s another benefit to pushing the Overton window in this direction, at least at a measured pace: we can splinter conservative coalitions.
There will be a certain population of intellectual conservatives who will willingly follow our lead in projects like this, because they care want to be respectable. If we force respectability to mean certain things, they’ll feel compelled to follow. There were very few mainstream (i.e. non-Tea Party) Republicans willing to back Trump when he called Mexicans rapists. If we can set these respectable conservatives at odds with other members of their coalitions, we weaken the electoral strength of the coalition overall.
These “respectable” conservatives may not represent a large part of the conservative constituency, but they do represent a certain proportion of it. And they’re the proportion peddling the rhetoric that can convince some of the swing voters to join their coalition (for example, the well educated professional and students we talked about earlier). Split them from the rest of their coalition and not only do we reduce the overall right wing vote share, we hurt their ability to woo centrists.
There’s a flip side to this of course. Move too fast and we risk helping parties like the BNP or Christian Heritage.
Coalition making and coalition breaking tend to happen by accident. Perhaps its time that activists began giving some thought to how we can strengthen our own coalition while weakening those of our political opponents.









