Putting this out there just in case it happens: basementgate could still happen in the epilogue, and Mike’s monologue will be to Will, not El.
My prediction is that Mike will confess to Will during the final battle, when it seems like he is going to lose Will forever. But since it seems like Mike is still figuring his own feelings out right now, they won’t officially get together here. Honestly, I doubt they’ll even kiss yet. Based on the fact that Mike only JUST realized Will is gay and has feelings for him, he’s gonna be doing a LOT of processing in the finale, and it would be pretty sudden for him and Will to immediately jump right to full romance (partly for the GA who will be surprised by the development, but mostly for Mike and Will themselves). Plus, they’re still keeping Mike and El’s relationship status very vague, almost as if the characters themselves aren’t sure where their relationship stands, which will also complicate Mike’s feelings in his confession.
But I do think he’s going to confess to Will at a climactic moment, probably in a way that lets Will know that they may be more similar than either of them thought (“crazy together” call back?), and affirms their bond and closeness (defeating Vecna as a “team,” like they agreed in s4), and brings Will back from the edge/helps him overpower Henry.
I could see the confession being framed as Mike letting Will know that he does love him, but maybe needs more time to figure out what that means for them, and to come to terms with his own identify, like Will has. Sort of a “please give us the chance to figure out what we are” plea, when it seems like he’s about to lose Will forever, ultimately giving Will renewed hope for reciprocation.
I feel like this might be the monologue that we’ve heard Finn talk about. I know some people have speculated that it will be to El, possibly convincing her not to let herself die, but I doubt that for a few reasons:
Based on the leaked promo video from yesterday, it seems like El, Kali, and Hopper go to the lab by themselves. There’s a scene of Mike talking to El, but the red lighting suggests this takes place on the truck right at the beginning of ep 8, before they all split up. Which means this is a goodbye scene for Mike and El, likely the last time they’ll see each other in this final battle.
We know that Will is going to have to go to the Abyss directly, via the radio tower. Granted, we don’t see him or Mike in the clip of the gang all standing on the top of it. But based on the interview where Shawn Levy refers to Finn and Noah as a duo in the last episodes, they’re probably just out of frame here. So, everything suggests that Mike will be going with Will and the rest of the gang to the Abyss, while El is at the lab. And while in the Abyss, Mike and Will probably will be separated from the rest of the group.
Based on one of the Duffers’ recent interviews, El is going to have to make a difficult choice between Mike’s “three waterfalls” or Kali’s oblivion. But at this point, I think Mike’s role in her choice is complete. He’s made it clear that he wants the party to live happily ever after, so there’s nothing new that he needs to impart to her through a monologue. It would be SO redundant at this point, since he’s already expressed his mindset to her twice, and will probably mention it again in the truck scene at the beginning of ep 8. Kali has made her side clear as well, and is likely going to push it on El again at the lab.
HOPPER is the missing puzzle piece for El in her final decision, not Mike. Hopper is going to be the one to help her find a secret third option, in which she doesn’t fully die, or run away with the party to a waterfall, but something in between. He’s the one who actually understands the suicidal ideation that El is grappling with on a personal level, unlike Mike.
This also tracks with this leaked BTS photo of Mike and Hopper on the bench, from the epilogue. They’re probably talking about El here (the only thing they really have in common). Mike looks sad, while Hopper looks more content, and has gone back to work as a cop. This suggests to me that El is no longer in Hawkins, but also not dead (Hop would be a wreck in that case). And if Mike was not there for El’s big decision (maybe faking her death to the military, and leaving?), but Hop was, it would make sense for Mike to ask him for details about how it went down.
From what I remember (I can’t find the clip to verify), Finn described the monologue as “challenging.” To me, that suggests it’s tackling brand new territory for his character, and a motivational heart to heart with El is something he’s done plenty of times. In fact, it seems that his scene with El in the truck in the beginning of ep 8 is exactly that sort of familiar Mike/El pep talk, and I highly doubt Mike delivers a full-fledged monologue to El in that scene, with all their friends around them and a mission about to begin.
Confessing his complicated feelings for his best friend and finally acknowledging that he may be gay, all with the threat of death imminent? Much more challenging for an actor, and definitely new territory for Mike.
After the final battle ends, I’m curious to see if we’ll get any immediate aftermath scenes, or if it will skip right to the large time jump in the epilogue. Ideally, I’d love basementgate to happen before the time jump, but I suppose it could also happen after. (After all, Maya did say her advice to Will would be “patience”, so maybe it takes a time jump for him and Mike to process everything.)
But based on what we’ve assumed about basementgate from all the WSQK hints, this is when we’ll get a scene of them in Mike’s basement, and Mike will finally “make a move” and send a stronger “good signal” to Will. We will see them finally kiss and start a relationship. (This timing would also line up with the notorious “1:44 epilogue kiss leak” that’s been making the rounds again.)
And it will be in a safe place that holds all the best memories for them, where they can be entirely at peace and true to themselves.