what of Draco Malfoy was killed during the ferret incident?
... so this one got away from me.
Because, okay. We joke that Dumbledore can ignore a lot, and it's true. But a *teacher* killing a *student,* in broad daylight, in front of witnesses? Dumbledore goes out on a limb to try to protect Draco during Book 6, because he's a child and a student. It'd be the same here.
BUT, Moody is also the closest thing Dumbledore has to an actual friend during the main timeline. (At least - Moody's the only one who feels comfortable sitting next to Dumbledore and playfully giving him a hard time. Dumbledore also gets scary-angry on Moody's behalf at the end of Book 4.) So, he'd probably assume that that Moody had killed Draco accidentally, and... and then would start projecting his own issues/motives onto him BIG time, because of the Ariana thing. I'd like to think that this would clue him into the fact that Moody is an an imposter, but honestly? I don't think it would. His reaction would be to get Moody away from Hogwarts, and then like... either bring him to trial or turn a blind eye while he escapes. Wherever his head is at that day. He would also absolutely, absolutely be blaming himself... since hiring Moody was his call.
Enter Lucius Malfoy. Lucius stays pretty quiet during Book 4. He's aware that... even IF Moody is targeting Draco... considering his and Moody's respective reputations... there's no way he can go up against Moody and actually win.
But if Moody KILLED Draco? He and Narcissa would be like - we're taking down Moody, we're taking down Dumbledore, and if we go down with them - we don't care. (That might actually be preferable.)
Lucius is going to burn every cent he has, call in every favor he has in order to do this. And a 14 year old child did die (at least Cedric wasn't a minor, by wizard standards) so yeah he gets the governors to unseat Dumbledore. The Ministry has the authority to send in a High Inquisitor? Great, that's Snape's new job, he can be headmaster too. A lot of the Book 5 plot would happen - Dumbledore being dragged through the dirt by the press, losing his various positions. You bet Lucius is getting him off the chocolate frog cards, no matter how much it costs in bribes. I like to think he calls in Rita Skeeter, and she gives him all the Grindelwald dirt.
The real question is how would Dumbledore react to all of this. Because on one hand - as far as he's concerned he did this, and he does hold a parents love for their child as this sacred thing. I think that to him, it's the only pure, unadulterated, love there is (he has issues.) I also think that on some level he WANTS to be punished and held accountable for the Ariana thing, and he'd be in a very bad headspace and projecting Ariana onto Draco HARD by this point. They were both 14 when they died.
But on the other hand... Lucius is an Death Eater, and Dumbledore wouldn't want to die/be imprisoned if it means leaving a (very unstable) Lucius Malfoy in a pretty uncontested position of power.
One relevant question is - Does Dumbledore know Voldemort is coming back? I say yes he does, since Karkaroff and Snape know, and Snape would have told him. And here's how I would Wastonianly explain Dumbledore's extreme lack of action during Book 4: He thinks Voldemort is possessing Harry. It's basically what he thinks is happening during Book 5, and there's some circumstantial evidence in Book 4 that's not on Harry's side. Harry's found standing underneath the Dark Mark, which has been cast with his wand. He enters himself in the Triwizard Tournament, when he shouldn't be able to either pass the Age Line OR confund the Goblet. I think Dumbledore is waiting Voldemort out, letting him get a body that ISN'T harry, (which does seem to be his endgame) and then react accordingly. And if Harry dies, well. It wasn't like Dumbledore wasn't expecting that outcome. He only comes up with his plan for an endgame where harry LIVES post-Graveyard.
So. While there there is part of Dumbledore that literally can't look at himself in the mirror... Dumbledore has been thinking he was a terrible person for kind of a while now, and has bigger fish to fry. I think he probably does find some way give Moody to Lucius as an apology/peace offering - and Lucius doesn't care. But... this probably results in LUCIUS finding out that Moody = Barty Crouch Junior. Time to throw him in the manor dungeons (and make life very, VERY unpleasant for him...) Then blackmail Barty Crouch Senior into giving him more political favors. Like the "dangerous" Triwizard tournament? Oh that's not happening.
Which means that Dumbledore no longer knows what Voldemort's plan is (Voldemort's plan is kind of dead in the water.) So... his MAIN focus becomes building up that collection of Voldemort memories. He's using horcruxes, but how many? Dumbledore is going to fin out.
He lets himself be run out of town, basically lets Lucius "win." Dumbledore can be patient. He's giving the Voldemort shade that he thinks is possessing Harry time to make a next move, and he's giving Lucius space to implode and/or dig his own grave. I like to think that he gave himself a few days at Nurmengard in order to fall apart, because I will always find a way to get in some Grindeldore content. But after that, he's going to find Slughorn.
Homunculus!Voldemort and Peter are going looking for Barty. I don't think Lucius will bother to make him especially hard to find. So - my next question is: is Voldemort arrogant enough to think that Lucius is STILL loyal? I acutally think... no. In the Book 4 graveyard scene he already considers Lucius "slippery," and like... Barty's the loyal one, and Lucius has him locked in a dungeon.
Peter can get through the Hogwarts wards as rat, so he can absolutely get into Malfoy Manor and free Barty. Lucius will not be expecting him. Part of me thinks that Voldemort just kills him... but no. I think at this point, Lucius is too valuable. Voldemort doesn't trust Snape, Barty's cover is blown (he's also probably not doing that well, physically, after Lucius and Narcissa have gotten their hands on him...) And Voldemort still needs a man on the inside to get to Harry.
Get Lucius re-instated as a school governor
Either Imperius Lucius OR disguise Peter as Lucius
Have "Lucius" go to Hogwarts and kidnap Harry
Do resurrection ceremony, kill harry
Blame Harry's death on Lucius Malfoy snapping, no one suspects Voldemort. He's risen again, no one the wiser.
However, this plan doesn't actually work. Snape is still at Hogwarts, still loyal to Dumbledore, and keeping an eye out for this sort of thing. Harry & Friends also still have the Marauders map... and knowing how laser focused Harry tends to be on Malfoy, they probably think SOMETHING is going on. So - some combination of Harry, Snape, and/or Dumbledore is going to apprehend "Lucius" - and it doesn't matter if it's Peter or Lucius, he's going to crack and tell Dumbledore everything.
So - Dumbledore now has Voldemort's weak physical body, Peter Pettigrew (who is terrified of him, and he always commits to the most powerful person in the room), a incapacitated Barty Crouch Junior, and the Malfoys, who he has just gotten out from out from under Voldemort's control. I also think that by nowww... having spent a little more time with zealot true believer Barty.... they're maybe thinking that Draco's death isn't exactly Dumbledore's fault, and Dumbledore does have a plan to defeat Voldemort properly, which they don't. (Also, Dumbledore clearly hates himself, just like, SO much.)
So Dumbledore has a little breathing room. He leaves Snape as headmaster, that's fine. He gets Slughorn to tell him how many horcruxes there are, and it IS scary. Dumbledore already has a little could've-been-a-dark lord energy, and it's only getting worse the longer he's cut off from public support, his routines, and his people (especially Harry, who he is ignoring for Harry's own good, Book 5 style). I think his recklessness has definitely alienated people like McGonagall, Hagrid, Aberforth, and the real Moody (or at least, Dumbledore THINKS it has.) He's spending time only around people he thinks he can't corrupt or hurt - the Malfoys, Snape, Barty, Voldemort. I'm picturing like, insane mental duels between Dumbledore and the depowered Voldemort he's got at his mercy... and I don't love Voldemort's chances. I think Dumbledore does gets the location of the remaining Horcruxes. Can't promise you that Voldemort's making it out in one piece, mentally speaking.
I think, with the Malfoys in his corner, Dumbledore can get the Cup out of Gringotts pretty easily, and Snape can get him the Diadem. The other two are harder. This might be a Dumbledore who is in bad enough shape to go to Grindelwald, after he decides he needs backup to get the locket. Like who else can he trust? Maybe Snape, but he can't spare Snape.
I like to think that the two of them, Albus and Gellert + the Drink of Despair, reliving Ariana's death together... helps them work through some stuff? Psychologically? It's either that, or Dumbledore sends a patronus to Snape, telling him the locket is a fake and Regulus took the real one - and he and Gellert die in some kind of murder/suicide. Either way, Lucius absolutely curses himself putting on the Ring, trying to bring Draco back. It's Severus and Narcissa who actually destroy it, and the Locket (which Kreacher just gives to Narcissa.)
Which leaves just Harry, and Voldemort, on the table - and the horcruxes inside both of them.
And I kinda wrote Gellert back into the story, so lets give him a hero moment. They make it out of the cave, or at least Gellert does. Albus wants to save this kid? Okay. He knows more about the Deathly Hallows than anyone alive. He will find a way to set things up so that Harry Potter ends up master of all three of them. At which point Gellert kills homunculus!Voldemort... and Voldemort DOES try to possess Harry's body, since that's the last power left to him.
It doesn't go well for him. Considering Harry's Master of Death, and still has Lily's 'burning touch' power good to go.
